Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultrahigh resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating.

Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon

The vagaries of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall on short and long timescales impact the lives of more than one billion people. Understanding how the monsoon will change in the face of global warming is a challenge for climate science, not least because our state-of-the-art general circulation models still have difficulty simulating the regional distribution of monsoon rainfall. However, we are beginning to understand more about processes driving the monsoon, its seasonal cycle and modes of variability. This gives us the hope that we can build better models and ultimately reduce the uncertainty in our projections of future monsoon rainfall.

Role of genetic polymorphism peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma2 Pro12Ala on ethnic susceptibility to diabetes in South-Asian and Caucasian subjects: Evidence for heterogeneity

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-gamma Pro12ala polymorphism modulates susceptibility to diabetes in South Asians. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: South Asians (n = 697) and Caucasians (n = 457) living in Dallas/Forth Worth, Texas, and South Asians living in Chennai, India (n = 1,619), were enrolled for this study. PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala was determined using restriction fragment-length polymorphism. Insulin responsiveness to an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was measured in nondiabetic subjects. RESULTS: The Caucasian diabetic subjects had significantly lower prevalence of PPAR-gamma 12Ala when compared with the Caucasian nondiabetic subjects (20 vs. 9%, P = 0.006). However, there were no significant differences between diabetic and nondiabetic subjects with reference to the Pro12Ala polymorphism among the South Asians living in Dallas (20 vs. 23%) and in India (19 vs. 19.3%). Although Caucasians carrying PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala had lower plasma insulin levels at 2 h of OGTT than the wild-type (Pro/Pro) carriers (76 +/- 68 and 54 +/- 33 microU/ml, respectively, P = 0.01), no differences in either fasting or 2-h plasma insulin concentrations were found between South Asians carrying the PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala polymorphism and those with the wild-type genotype at either Chennai or Dallas. CONCLUSIONS: Although further replication studies are necessary to test the validity of the described genotype-phenotype relationship, our study supports the hypothesis that the PPAR-gamma Pro12Ala polymorphism is protective against diabetes in Caucasians but not in South Asians.

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts.

Petrogenesis of dunite, wehrlite and websterite xenoliths from Kimberley, South Africa: Origin as mantle peridotites of cumulates

Dunite, wehrlite and websterite xenoliths occur amongst a large abundance of mantle xenoliths in kimberlites of the Kimberley cluster in South Africa. Up to know they have mostly been neglected. On the basis of texture, major and trace elements, oxygen isotopes as well as Re-Os isotope characteristics, they can be subdivided into two groups. A coarse-grained mantle peridotite group, comprising dunite, wehrlite and websterite xenoliths, that are similar to fertile peridotites and represent upper mantle assemblages that are differently influenced by mantle metasomatism. And a cumulate group, containing fine-grained Fe-rich dunite xenoliths that represent cumulates of flood basalt magmatism related to ~183 Ma Karoo and ~2.7 Ga Ventersdorp events in southern Africa. Dunite, wehrlite and websterite xenoliths have preserved a complex history of melt depletion and metasomatic re-enrichment events, which gives information about the different re-enrichment stages of the subcratonic lithospheric mantle and the spatial differences within the Kaapvaal craton upper mantle. Websterite xenoliths comprise orthopyroxene (40-85 Vol. %), clinopyroxene (5-42 Vol. %), garnet (4-10 Vol. %) and subordinately olivine, while dunite and wehrlite xenoliths contain predominantly olivine (65-100 Vol %) and subordinately orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene and garnet. High melt depletion and a dunitic to harzburgitic protolith composition are reflected by high forsterite (Fo90-92) and high olivine NiO contents (2800-5000 ppm) and high orthopyroxene Mg# (Mg/(Mg+Fe)) of 0.91-0.93. Re-depletion ages of predominantly 2.9 Ga reflect a minimum age of melt depletion. Melt depletion ceased in conjunction with collision of the Kimberley block with the Witwatersrand block ~2.9 Ga ago. Subduction related re-fertilisation of the previously depleted mantle xenoliths is documented by i) amoeboid textured orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene and garnet, which crystallized in schlieren along olivine grain boundaries, ii) high whole-rock SiO2, Al2O3, CaO, TiO2, FeO contents, iii) low oxygen isotope ratios in clinopyroxene and garnet of 4.8-5.4 ‰ and 4.7-5.3 ‰, respectively and iv) trace element compositions of wehrlitic clinopyroxene and garnet in equilibrium with high-pressure partial melts of eclogite. Trace element disequilibrium of orthopyroxene with clinopyroxene and garnet indicates a separate origin for orthopyroxene, on one side as primary mantle orthopyroxene in dunite and wehrlite xenoliths and on the other side as reaction product with Si-rich melts produced by partial melting of eclogite. This reaction triggered replacement of olivine by orthopyroxene in the surrounding mantle and produced the typical Si-rich composition of Kaapvaal mantle peridotites. Partial melting of eclogite at higher temperatures produced a second metasomatic melt with lower SiO2, but higher Al2O3, CaO, FeO, Ti, Zr, Hf and a low oxygen isotope ratio. This melt triggered clinopyroxene and locally garnet and rutile crystallization in percolation veins, replacing olivine and orthopyroxene in the Kaapvaal upper mantle. Additionally, websterite xenoliths have experienced late stage cryptic metasomatism by the host kimberlite melt, changing the trace element composition of clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and garnet to different extent. Hence websterite and most fertile lherzolite xenoliths have experienced three metasomatic events: i) reaction with high-Si melt, ii) percolation of subduction related silica melt with lower SiO2 content and iii) cryptic metasomatism by kimberlite. In contrast, dunite and wehrlite xenoliths have only experienced the second metasomatic event. They represent mantle lithologies further away from metasomatising agents. The Fe-rich dunites comprise olivine neoblasts with subordinate olivine porphyroclasts and parallel-orientated needles of ilmenite, which may enclose spinel. The lower forsterite and NiO contents of olivine in Fe-rich dunites compared to mantle peridotite xenoliths (Fo87-89 vs. Fo93-95 and 1300-2800ppm vs. 2200-3900 ppm, respectively), rules out a restitic origin. Cr-rich spinels are remnants of the original cumulate mineralogy that survived a late stage metasomatic overprint related to the production of the host kimberlite, producing ilmenite and phlogopite in some samples. Olivine porphyroclasts and neoblasts have different trace element compositions, the latter having high Ti, V, Cr and Ni and low Zn, Zr and Nb contents, indicating contrasting origins for neoblasts and porphyroclasts. The dunites have high 187Os/188Os ratios (0.11-0.15) indicating young (Phanerozoic) model ages for most samples, whereas three samples show isotopic mixtures between Phanerozoic neoblasts and ancient porphyroclastic material. Most Fe-rich dunite xenoliths can be interpreted as cumulates of fractional crystallization of Karoo magmatism, whereas the porphyroclasts are interpreted to be remnants from the much earlier Archaean Ventersdorp magmatism.

Disclosure, discrimination and desire: experiences of Black and South Asian gay men in Britain

Using findings from a qualitative investigation based on in-depth email interviews with 47 Black and South Asian gay men in Britain, this paper explores the cross-cutting identities and discourses in relation to being both gay and from an ethnic minority background. Taking an intersectional approach, detailed accounts of identity negotiation, cultural pressures, experiences of discrimination and exclusion and the relationship between minority ethnic gay men and mainstream White gay culture are presented and explored. The major findings common to both groups were: cultural barriers limiting disclosure of sexuality to family and wider social networks; experiences of discrimination by White gay men that included exclusion as well as objectification; a lack of positive gay role models and imagery relating to men from minority ethnic backgrounds. Among South Asian gay men, a major theme was regret at being unable to fulfil family expectations regarding marriage and children, while among Black gay men, there was a strong belief that same-sex behaviour subverted cultural notions related to how masculinity is configured. The paper concludes by highlighting the importance of social location, particularly education and income, when examining the intersection of ethnicity and sexuality in future research.

Asthma in young south Asian women living in the United Kingdom: the importance of early life

BACKGROUND: Studies of immigrants suggest that the environment during fetal life and duration of residence in the host country might influence the development of asthma. Little is known about the importance of the timing of the exposure in the host country and whether migrants might be especially vulnerable in certain age windows. OBJECTIVE: We compared the reported prevalence of asthma between young white and south Asian women in the United Kingdom, and investigated associations with country of birth and age at immigration. METHODS: A questionnaire on atopic disorders was posted to 2380 south Asian and 5796 white young mothers randomly sampled in Leicestershire. Data on ethnicity were also available from maternity records. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression and a propensity score approach. Results The reported prevalence of asthma was 10.9% in south Asian and 21.8% in white women. South Asian women who migrated to the United Kingdom aged 5 years or older reported less asthma (6.5%) than those born in the United Kingdom or who migrated before age 5 (16.0%), with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.38 [95% Confidence Interval 0.23-0.64, P<0.001]. For those who migrated aged over 5 years, the prevalence did not alter with the duration of residence in the United Kingdom. Current exposure to common environmental risk factors had relatively little effect on prevalence estimates. CONCLUSION: These data from a large population-based study support the hypothesis that early life environmental factors influence the risk of adult asthma.

Wheeze and asthma prevalence and related health-service use in white and south Asian pre-schoolchildren in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data for south Asian children in the United Kingdom are contradictory, showing a lower prevalence of wheeze, but a higher rate of medical consultations and admissions for asthma compared with white children. These studies have not distinguished different asthma phenotypes or controlled for varying environmental exposures. OBJECTIVE: To compare the prevalence of wheeze and related health-service use in south Asian and white pre-schoolchildren in the United Kingdom, taking into account wheeze phenotype (viral and multiple wheeze) and environmental exposures. METHODS: A postal questionnaire was completed by parents of a population-based sample of 4366 white and 1714 south Asian children aged 1-4 years in Leicestershire, UK. Children were classified as having viral wheeze or multiple trigger wheeze. RESULTS: The prevalence of current wheeze was 35.6% in white and 25.5% in south Asian 1-year-olds (P<0.001), and 21.9% and 20.9%, respectively, in children aged 2-4 years. Odds ratios (ORs) (95% confidence interval) for multiple wheeze and for viral wheeze, comparing south Asian with white children, were 2.21 (1.19-4.09) and 1.43 (0.77-2.65) in 2-4-year-olds after controlling for socio-economic conditions, environmental exposures and family history. In 1-year-olds, the respective ORs for multiple and viral wheeze were 0.66 (0.47-0.92) and 0.81 (0.64-1.03). Reported GP consultation rates for wheeze and hospital admissions were greater in south Asian children aged 2-4 years, even after adjustment for severity, but the use of inhaled corticosteroids was lower. CONCLUSIONS: South Asian 2-4-year-olds are more likely than white children to have multiple wheeze (a condition with many features of chronic atopic asthma), after taking into account ethnic differences in exposure to some environmental agents. Undertreatment with inhaled corticosteroids might partly explain their greater use of health services.

Vascular dysfunction and reduced circulating endothelial progenitor cells in young healthy UK South Asian men

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to examine determinants of excess coronary artery disease risk in UK South Asians, more prevalent in this population than UK Caucasians, by examining differences in risk factors, vascular function, and endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs). METHODS AND RESULTS: 24 South Asian and 25 Caucasian healthy age-matched nonsmoking men were studied. Vascular function was assessed by flow-mediated and GTN brachial artery dilatation and blood flow responses to infusion of ACh, SNP, and L-NMMA. EPC number and function were measured by flow cytometry (CD34, CD133, and KDR positive cells), and CFU/migration assays. Traditional risk factors and anthropometric measurements were similar in the groups. South Asians had higher fasting insulin levels (6.01 versus 3.62 microU/mL; P = 0.02). South Asians had lower FMD (6.9 versus 8.5%; P = 0.003), L-NMMA response (0.8 versus 1.3 mL/min/100 mL; P = 0.03), mean SNP response (9.5+/-0.6 versus 11.6+/-0.6; P = 0.02), EPC number (0.046+/-0.005% versus 0.085+/-0.009%; P = < 0.001), and CFU ability (CFU 4.29+/-1.57 versus 18.86+/-4.00; P = 0.005). EPC number was the strongest predictor of FMD. Ethnicity was the strongest predictor of EPC number. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy South Asian men are more insulin resistant, and demonstrate endothelial dysfunction and reduced EPC number and function compared with Caucasians. These abnormalities may contribute to their increased CAD risk.