Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

A Real Time Vision System for Autonomous Systems: Characterization during a Middle Size Match

in RoboCup 2007: Robot Soccer World Cup XI

Design of the ISePorto robocup Middle-Size League Robotic Soccer Team: Control, Localisation and Coordination

Proceedings of the 10th Mediterranean Conference on Control and Automation - MED2002 Lisbon, Portugal, July 9-12, 2002

Control and Localisation for the ISePorto Robotic Soccer Team

International Conference on Advanced Robotics, Coimbra, Portugal, Julho 2003

Ball Sensing in a Leg Like Robotic Kicker

The trend to have more cooperative play and the increase of game dynamics in Robocup MSL League motivates the improvement of skills for ball passing and reception. Currently the majority of the MSL teams uses ball handling devices with rollers to have more precise kicks but limiting the capability to kick a moving ball without stopping it and grabbing it. This paper addresses the problem to receive and kick a fast moving ball without having to grab it with a roller based ball handling device. Here, the main difficulty is the high latency and low rate of the measurements of the ball sensing systems, based in vision or laser scanner sensors.Our robots use a geared leg coupled to a motor that acts simultaneously as the kicking device and low level ball sensor. This paper proposes a new method to improve the capability for ball sensing in the kicker, by combining high rate measurements from the torque and energy in the motor and angular position of the kicker leg. The developed method endows the kicker device with an effective ball detection ability, validated in several game situations like in an interception to a fast pass or when chasing the ball where the relative speed from robot to ball is low. This can be used to optimize the kick instant or by the embedded kicker control system to absorb the ball energy.

Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

Fiscal adjustments and sovereign default in different government systems

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Fiscal adjustments and sovereign default in different government systems

This paper extends the model of Spolaore (2004) about adjustments in di erent government systems for the context of scal adjustments and sovereign default. We introduce asymmetry between groups in income and preferences towards scal reforms. Default a ects di erently each group and becomes a possibility if reforms are not enacted after public nance solvency shocks, in uencing the political game according to its likelihood. With the extensions, new situations which were not possible with the previous framework arise. After the exposition of the model, the Argentine default in 2001 provides an example of the political con icts addressed by the model.

RoboCup Soccer Leagues

RoboCup was created in 1996 by a group of Japanese, American, and European Artificial Intelligence and Robotics researchers with a formidable, visionary long-term challenge: “By 2050 a team of robot soccer players will beat the human World Cup champion team.” At that time, in the mid 90s, when there were very few effective mobile robots and the Honda P2 humanoid robot was presented to a stunning public for the first time also in 1996, the RoboCup challenge, set as an adversarial game between teams of autonomous robots, was fascinating and exciting. RoboCup enthusiastically and concretely introduced three robot soccer leagues, namely “Simulation,” “Small-Size,” and “Middle-Size,” as we explain below, and organized its first competitions at IJCAI’97 in Nagoya with a surprising number of 100 participants [RC97]. It was the beginning of what became a continously growing research community. RoboCup established itself as a structured organization (the RoboCup Federation www.RoboCup.org). RoboCup fosters annual competition events, where the scientific challenges faced by the researchers are addressed in a setting that is attractive also to the general public. and the RoboCup events are the ones most popular and attended in the research fields of AI and Robotics.RoboCup further includes a technical symposium with contributions relevant to the RoboCup competitions and beyond to the general AI and robotics.

Hand gesture recognition system based in computer vision and machine learning

"Lecture notes in computational vision and biomechanics series, ISSN 2212-9391, vol. 19"

Hand gesture recognition system based in computer vision and machine learning: Applications on human-machine interaction

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia de Eletrónica e de Computadores

Detection of nandrolone metabolites in urine after a football game in professional and amateur players: a Bayesian comparison.

Nandrolone (19-nortestosterone) is a widely used anabolic steroid in sports where strength plays an essential role. Once nandrolone has been metabolised, two major metabolites are excreted in urine, 19-norandrosterone (NA) and 19-noretiocholanolone (NE). In 1997, in France, quite a few sportsmen had concentrations of 19-norandrosterone very close to the IOC cut off limit (2ng/ml). At that time, a debate took place about the capability of the human male body to produce by itself these metabolites without any intake of nandrolone or related compounds. The International Football Federation (FIFA) was very concerned with this problematic, especially because the World Cup was about to start in France. In this respect, a statistical study was held with all football players from the first and second divisions of the Swiss Football National League. All players gave a urine sample after effort and around 6% of them showed traces of 19-norandrosterone. These results were compared with amateur football players (control group) and around 6% of them had very small amounts of 19-norandrosterone and/or 19-noretiocholanolone in urine after effort, whereas none of them had detectable traces of one or the other metabolite before effort. The origin of these compounds in urine after a strenuous physical activity is still unknown, but three hypotheses can be put forward. First, an endogenous production of nandrolone metabolites takes place. Second, nandrolone metabolites are released from the fatty tissues after an intake of nandrolone, some related compounds or some contaminated nutritive supplements. Finally, the sportsmen may have taken something during or just before the football game.

Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction.

Studies about the atomic capabilities concept for linear control systems in physical multi-agent environments

This paper shows the impact of the atomic capabilities concept to include control-oriented knowledge of linear control systems in the decisions making structure of physical agents. These agents operate in a real environment managing physical objects (e.g. their physical bodies) in coordinated tasks. This approach is presented using an introspective reasoning approach and control theory based on the specific tasks of passing a ball and executing the offside manoeuvre between physical agents in the robotic soccer testbed. Experimental results and conclusions are presented, emphasising the advantages of our approach that improve the multi-agent performance in cooperative systems

A situated analysis of football goalkeepers' experiences in critical game situations.

This study described elite football (soccer) goalkeepers' activity and performance in critical game situations. The 11 best French players (M age = 15.5 yr., SD = 0.5) participated in the study. Interviews focused on goalkeepers' experiences were conducted to identify meaningful events involved in failed actions. Players formulated 23 critical game situations. Verbatim encoding using a thematic analysis indicated that four main categories (coming off the line, goal-line clearance, one-on-one, and diving) represented the most critical situations encountered during matches. The relations among experience and action, inner states, background, attention contents, and intentions were elucidated. The discussion is grounded on the properties of such critical game situations and their implications for improving goalkeepers' performance.