Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters’ performance is skill-based. ‘Superior’ forecasters show consistent ability as their forecasting success holds across currencies. They seem to possess knowledge on the role of fundamentals in explaining exchange rate behavior, as indicated by better interest rate forecasts. Superior forecasters are more experienced than the median forecaster and have fewer personnel responsibilities. Accordingly, foreign exchange markets may function in less puzzling and irrational ways than is often thought.

The Taylor Principle and (In-) Determinacy in a New Keynesian Model with hiring Frictions and Skill Loss

We introduce duration dependent skill decay among the unemployed into a New-Keynesian model with hiring frictions developed by Blanchard/Gali (2008). If the central bank responds only to (current, lagged or expected future) inflation and quarterly skill decay is above a threshold level, determinacy requires a coefficient on inflation smaller than one. The threshold level is plausible with little steady-state hiring and firing ("Continental European Calibration") but implausibly high in the opposite case ("American calibration"). Neither interest rate smoothing nor responding to the output gap helps to restore determinacy if skill decay exceeds the threshold level. However, a modest response to unemployment guarantees determinacy. Moreover, under indeterminacy, both an adverse sunspot shock and an adverse technology shock increase unemployment extremely persistently.

Both Sides of the Story: Skill-biased Technological Change, Labour Market Frictions, and Endogenous Two-Sided Heterogeneity

This paper presents a stylised framework to examine how skill-biased technological change and labour market frictions affect the relationship between economic expansion and unskilled unemployment. The first part of the analysis focuses on the investment decisions in skill-acquisition and technology adoption activities faced by workers and firms in response to the introduction of an innovative technology. The second part examines how endogenous two-sided heterogeneity in the labour market affects the macroeconomic outcomes in terms of unemployment, technological diffusion, and economic expansion. To conclude, the framework is used to discuss the effects of alternative forms of policy intervention on agents' investment decisions and on the macroeconomic outcomes.

Optimal taxation and the skill premium

The stylized facts suggest a negative relationship between tax progressivity and the skill premium from the early 1960s until the early 1990s, and a positive one thereafter. They also generally imply rising tax progressivity, except for the 1980s. In this paper, we ask whether optimal tax policy is consistent with these observations, taking into account the demographic and technological factors that have also affected the skill premium. To this end, we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the skill premium and the progressivity of the tax system are endogenously determined, with the latter being optimally chosen by a benevolent government. We find that optimal policy delivers both a progressive tax system and model predictions which are generally consistent, except for the 1980s, with the stylized facts relating to the skill premium and progressivity. To capture the patterns in the data over the 1980s requires that we adopt a government policy which is biased towards the interests of skilled agents. Thus, in addition to demographic and technological factors, changes in the preferences of policy-makers appear to be a potentially important factor in determining the evolution of the observed skill premium.

Human capital, social mobility and the skill premium

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to highlight the role of human capital accumulation of agents differentiated by skill type in the joint determination of social mobility and the skill premium. We first show that our model captures the empirical co-movement of the skill premium, the relative supply of skilled to unskilled workers and aggregate output in the U.S. data from 1970-2000. We next show that endogenous social mobility and human capital accumulation are key channels through which the effects of capital tax cuts and increases in public spending on both pre- and post-college education are transmitted. In particular, social mobility creates additional incentives for the agents which enhance the beneficial effects of policy reforms. Moreover, the dynamics of human capital accumulation imply that, post reform, the skill premium is higher in the short- to medium-run than in the long-run.

Matching and Sorting in a Global Economy

We develop a neoclassical trade model with heterogeneous factors of production. We consider a world with two factors, labor and .managers., each with a distribution of ability levels. Production combines a manager of some type with a group of workers. The output of a unit depends on the types of the two factors, with complementarity between them, while exhibiting diminishing returns to the number of workers. We examine the sorting of factors to sectors and the matching of factors within sectors, and we use the model to study the determinants of the trade pattern and the effects of trade on the wage and salary distributions. Finally, we extend the model to include search frictions and consider the distribution of employment rates.

Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity

This paper undertakes a normative investigation of the quantitative properties of optimal tax smoothing in a business cycle model with state contingent debt, capital-skill complementarity, endogenous skill formation and stochastic shocks to public consumption as well as total factor and capital equipment productivity. Our main finding is that an empirically relevant restriction which does not allow the relative supply of skilled labour to adjust in response to aggregate shocks, signi cantly changes the cyclical properties of optimal labour taxes. Under a restricted relative skill supply, the government fi nds it optimal to adjust labour income tax rates so that the average net returns to skilled and unskilled labour hours exhibit the same dynamic behaviour as under fl exible skill supply.

Optimal progressive taxation in a model with endogenous skill supply.

This paper examines whether efficiency considerations require that optimal labour income taxation is progressive or regressive in a model with skill heterogeneity, endogenous skill acquisition and a production sector with capital-skill complementarity. We find that wage inequality driven by the resource requirements of skill-creation implies progressive labour income taxation in the steady-state as well as along the transition path from the exogenous to optimal policy steady-state. We find that these results are explained by a lower labour supply elasticity for skilled versus unskilled labour which results from the introduction of the skill acquisition technology.

Enhancing Interns’ Aspirations towards the Labour Market through Skill-Acquisition: The Second Chance Schools Experience

Second Change School programmes are active in a number of European countries. These schools offer vulnerable young adults an alternative opportunity to enhance their employability skills by alternating education with work experience. People enrolling in these programmes disengaged from schools at an early age. They already experienced or are at-risk to enter into unemployment. This paper examines the impact of the Second Chance Schools on their participants’ aspirations towards the labour market through skill-acquisition. We are able to identify the perception of Second Chance Schools’ interns regarding entry to the professional life. A third of them, for example, consider their attitude or their surroundings as a barrier preventing them from getting a job. However, our results emphasise the role of the interns’ coach in improving their aspirations towards the labour market. We also show that when compared to male interns, female interns have a stronger (positive) perception of the school as a place where they can gain skills.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability: The example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.

Service offshoring and the skill composition of labor demand

This paper studies the effects of service offshoring on the skill composition of labor demand, using novel comparable data for nine Western European countries between 1990 and 2004. The empirical analysis delivers three main results. First, service offshoring is skill-biased, because it increases the demand for high and medium skilled labor and decreases the demand for low skilled labor. Second, the effects of service offshoring are similar to those of material offshoring, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Third, the economic magnitude of these effects is not large.

Location Determinants of New Firms: Does Skill Level of Human Capital Really Matter?

This paper is about the role played by stock of human capital on location decisions of new manufacturing plants. We analyse the effect of several skill levels (from basic school to PhD) on decisions about the location of plants in various industries and, therefore, of different technological levels. We also test whether spatial aggregation level biases the results and determine the most appropriate areas to be considered in analyses of these phenomena. Our main statistical source is the Register of Manufacturing Establishments of Catalonia (REIC), which has plant-level microdata on the locations of new manufacturing plants. Keywords: agglomeration economies, industrial location, human capital, count-data models, spatial econometrics.

Report to Secretary General on: Travel associated with Management - Union Partnership Activities, and in which Department officials participated, and Funding for Management -Union Partnership activities other than SKILL

Report to Secretary General on: Travel associated with Management – Union Partnership Activities, and in which Department officials participated, and Funding for Management -Union Partnership activities other than SKILL Download this document as a PDF 58KB Also… Subsistence Allowances PDF 1.19MB Extracts from the Health Service National Partnership Forum’s Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2000 PDF 338KB Foreign Travel claims relating to Skills & Partnership PDF 13KB Details of Funding Provided to Nursing Unions from 12/6/2000 – 5/11/2004 PDF 360KB Partnership Investigation PDF 428KB

Sorting mechanisms regulating membrane protein traffic in the apical transcytotic pathway of polarized MDCK cells.

The transcytotic pathway followed by the polymeric IgA receptor (pIgR) carrying its bound ligand (dIgA) from the basolateral to the apical surface of polarized MDCK cells has been mapped using morphological tracers. At 20 degreesC dIgA-pIgR internalize to interconnected groups of vacuoles and tubules that comprise the endosomal compartment and in which they codistribute with internalized transferrin receptors (TR) and epidermal growth factor receptors (EGFR). Upon transfer to 37 degreesC the endosome vacuoles develop long tubules that give rise to a distinctive population of 100-nm-diam cup-shaped vesicles containing pIgR. At the same time, the endosome gives rise to multivesicular endosomes (MVB) enriched in EGFR and to 60-nm-diam basolateral vesicles. The cup-shaped vesicles carry the dIgA/pIgR complexes to the apical surface where they exocytose. Using video microscopy and correlative electron microscopy to study cells grown thin and flat we show that endosome vacuoles tubulate in response to dIgA/pIgR but that the tubules contain TR as well as pIgR. However, we show that TR are removed from these dIgA-induced tubules via clathrin-coated buds and, as a result, the cup-shaped vesicles to which the tubules give rise become enriched in dIgA/pIgR. Taken together with the published information available on pIgR trafficking signals, our observations suggest that the steady-state concentrations of TR and unoccupied pIgR on the basolateral surface of polarized MDCK cells are maintained by a signal-dependent, clathrin-based sorting mechanism that operates along the length of the transcytotic pathway. We propose that the differential sorting of occupied receptors within the MDCK endosome is achieved by this clathrin-based mechanism continuously retrieving receptors like TR from the pathways that deliver pIgR to the apical surface and EGFR to the lysosome.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability : the example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.