Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: an empirical analysis

We employ a large dataset of physical inventory data on 21 different commodities for the period 1993–2011 to empirically analyze the behavior of commodity prices and their volatility as predicted by the theory of storage. We examine two main issues. First, we analyze the relationship between inventory and the shape of the forward curve. Low (high) inventory is associated with forward curves in backwardation (contango), as the theory of storage predicts. Second, we show that price volatility is a decreasing function of inventory for the majority of commodities in our sample. This effect is more pronounced in backwardated markets. Our findings are robust with respect to alternative inventory measures and over the recent commodity price boom.

Essays on asymmetric information problems without the single-crossing property: applications to corporate finance

The objective of this dissertation is to re-examine classical issues in corporate finance, applying a new analytical tool. The single-crossing property, also called Spence-irrlees condition, is not required in the models developed here. This property has been a standard assumption in adverse selection and signaling models developed so far. The classical papers by Guesnerie and Laffont (1984) and Riley (1979) assume it. In the simplest case, for a consumer with a privately known taste, the single-crossing property states that the marginal utility of a good is monotone with respect to the taste. This assumption has an important consequence to the result of the model: the relationship between the private parameter and the quantity of the good assigned to the agent is monotone. While single crossing is a reasonable property for the utility of an ordinary consumer, this property is frequently absent in the objective function of the agents for more elaborate models. The lack of a characterization for the non-single crossing context has hindered the exploration of models that generate objective functions without this property. The first work that characterizes the optimal contract without the single-crossing property is Araújo and Moreira (2001a) and, for the competitive case, Araújo and Moreira (2001b). The main implication is that a partial separation of types may be observed. Two sets of disconnected types of agents may choose the same contract, in adverse selection problems, or signal with the same levei of signal, in signaling models.

Problemas y políticas de productos básicos = Commodity problems and policies

Incluye Bibliografía

Reports on inventory of the problems of the environment

Includes bibliography

Report on inventory of the problems of the environment in Trinidad and Tobago

Includes bibliography

Algorithms for network design and routing problems

In this thesis we study three combinatorial optimization problems belonging to the classes of Network Design and Vehicle Routing problems that are strongly linked in the context of the design and management of transportation networks: the Non-Bifurcated Capacitated Network Design Problem (NBP), the Period Vehicle Routing Problem (PVRP) and the Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows (PDPTW). These problems are NP-hard and contain as special cases some well known difficult problems such as the Traveling Salesman Problem and the Steiner Tree Problem. Moreover, they model the core structure of many practical problems arising in logistics and telecommunications. The NBP is the problem of designing the optimum network to satisfy a given set of traffic demands. Given a set of nodes, a set of potential links and a set of point-to-point demands called commodities, the objective is to select the links to install and dimension their capacities so that all the demands can be routed between their respective endpoints, and the sum of link fixed costs and commodity routing costs is minimized. The problem is called non- bifurcated because the solution network must allow each demand to follow a single path, i.e., the flow of each demand cannot be splitted. Although this is the case in many real applications, the NBP has received significantly less attention in the literature than other capacitated network design problems that allow bifurcation. We describe an exact algorithm for the NBP that is based on solving by an integer programming solver a formulation of the problem strengthened by simple valid inequalities and four new heuristic algorithms. One of these heuristics is an adaptive memory metaheuristic, based on partial enumeration, that could be applied to a wider class of structured combinatorial optimization problems. In the PVRP a fleet of vehicles of identical capacity must be used to service a set of customers over a planning period of several days. Each customer specifies a service frequency, a set of allowable day-combinations and a quantity of product that the customer must receive every time he is visited. For example, a customer may require to be visited twice during a 5-day period imposing that these visits take place on Monday-Thursday or Monday-Friday or Tuesday-Friday. The problem consists in simultaneously assigning a day- combination to each customer and in designing the vehicle routes for each day so that each customer is visited the required number of times, the number of routes on each day does not exceed the number of vehicles available, and the total cost of the routes over the period is minimized. We also consider a tactical variant of this problem, called Tactical Planning Vehicle Routing Problem, where customers require to be visited on a specific day of the period but a penalty cost, called service cost, can be paid to postpone the visit to a later day than that required. At our knowledge all the algorithms proposed in the literature for the PVRP are heuristics. In this thesis we present for the first time an exact algorithm for the PVRP that is based on different relaxations of a set partitioning-like formulation. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is tested on a set of instances from the literature and on a new set of instances. Finally, the PDPTW is to service a set of transportation requests using a fleet of identical vehicles of limited capacity located at a central depot. Each request specifies a pickup location and a delivery location and requires that a given quantity of load is transported from the pickup location to the delivery location. Moreover, each location can be visited only within an associated time window. Each vehicle can perform at most one route and the problem is to satisfy all the requests using the available vehicles so that each request is serviced by a single vehicle, the load on each vehicle does not exceed the capacity, and all locations are visited according to their time window. We formulate the PDPTW as a set partitioning-like problem with additional cuts and we propose an exact algorithm based on different relaxations of the mathematical formulation and a branch-and-cut-and-price algorithm. The new algorithm is tested on two classes of problems from the literature and compared with a recent branch-and-cut-and-price algorithm from the literature.

Construction and first validation of the comprehensive inventory of mindfulness (CHIME)

Introduction: Measuring trait mindfulness and change in mindfulness may be a crucial prerequisite for the evaluation and further development of mindfulness based interventions for the treatment of mental disorders. This endeavour is nontrivial as current measures cover varying aspects and mindfulness and may have problems regarding validity. This presentation describes the development and validation of a questionnaire for the comprehensive assessment of mindfulness: the Comprehensive Inventory of Mindfulness Experiences (CHIME). Method: The factor structure, reliability, and validity of the CHIME were established in a community sample (N = 298) and a sample of MBSR group participants (N = 161). Results: Factor-analytical procedures supported an eight-factor structure. The structure was tested in a further confirmatory sample (N = 202). The questionnaire and its subscales exhibited good reliability (internal consistency and retest-reliability). Analysis of the measurement invariance of the single items over groups differing in age, gender, meditation experience, and symptom load pointed to the absence of systematic differences in the items' semantic understanding. Parameters reflecting construct validity, criterion validity, and incremental validity as well as change sensitivity were all at least satisfactory. Conclusions: The CHIME is a self-report measure with favorable psychometric properties based on all aspects of mindfulness that are included in current mindfulness scales. This scale may be helpful in the evaluation and further development of mindfulness based interventions.

SOP: Parallel surrogate global optimization with Pareto center selection for computationally expensive single objective problems

This paper presents a parallel surrogate-based global optimization method for computationally expensive objective functions that is more effective for larger numbers of processors. To reach this goal, we integrated concepts from multi-objective optimization and tabu search into, single objective, surrogate optimization. Our proposed derivative-free algorithm, called SOP, uses non-dominated sorting of points for which the expensive function has been previously evaluated. The two objectives are the expensive function value of the point and the minimum distance of the point to previously evaluated points. Based on the results of non-dominated sorting, P points from the sorted fronts are selected as centers from which many candidate points are generated by random perturbations. Based on surrogate approximation, the best candidate point is subsequently selected for expensive evaluation for each of the P centers, with simultaneous computation on P processors. Centers that previously did not generate good solutions are tabu with a given tenure. We show almost sure convergence of this algorithm under some conditions. The performance of SOP is compared with two RBF based methods. The test results show that SOP is an efficient method that can reduce time required to find a good near optimal solution. In a number of cases the efficiency of SOP is so good that SOP with 8 processors found an accurate answer in less wall-clock time than the other algorithms did with 32 processors.

Research on underdevelopment; assessment and inventory of research on economic, social, and political problems of underdeveloped areas. Draft.

Cover title.

Public works planning in Oklahoma; principles, problems, and results of inventory.

Mode of access: Internet.

Setting parameters in MRP for the effective management of bought-out inventory in a JIT assembly environment

In recent years, UK industry has seen an explosive growth in the number of `Computer Aided Production Management' (CAPM) system installations. Of the many CAPM systems, materials requirement planning/manufacturing resource planning (MRP/MRPII) is the most widely implemented. Despite the huge investments in MRP systems, over 80 percent are said to have failed within 3 to 5 years of installation. Many people now assume that Just-In-Time (JIT) is the best manufacturing technique. However, those who have implemented JIT have found that it also has many problems. The author argues that the success of a manufacturing company will not be due to a system which complies with a single technique; but due to the integration of many techniques and the ability to make them complement each other in a specific manufacturing environment. This dissertation examines the potential for integrating MRP with JIT and Two-Bin systems to reduce operational costs involved in managing bought-out inventory. Within this framework it shows that controlling MRP is essential to facilitate the integrating process. The behaviour of MRP systems is dependent on the complex interactions between the numerous control parameters used. Methodologies/models are developed to set these parameters. The models are based on the Pareto principle. The idea is to use business targets to set a coherent set of parameters, which not only enables those business targets to be realised, but also facilitates JIT implementation. It illustrates this approach in the context of an actual manufacturing plant - IBM Havant. (IBM Havant is a high volume electronics assembly plant with the majority of the materials bought-out). The parameter setting models are applicable to control bought-out items in a wide range of industries and are not dependent on specific MRP software. The models have produced successful results in several companies and are now being developed as commercial products.

Coordinated pricing and inventory management

This dissertation mainly focuses on coordinated pricing and inventory management problems, where the related background is provided in Chapter 1. Several periodic-review models are then discussed in Chapters 2,3,4 and 5, respectively. Chapter 2 analyzes a deterministic single-product model, where a price adjustment cost incurs if the current selling price is changed from the previous period. We develop exact algorithms for the problem under different conditions and find out that computation complexity varies significantly associated with the cost structure. %Moreover, our numerical study indicates that dynamic pricing strategies may outperform static pricing strategies even when price adjustment cost accounts for a significant portion of the total profit. Chapter 3 develops a single-product model in which demand of a period depends not only on the current selling price but also on past prices through the so-called reference price. Strongly polynomial time algorithms are designed for the case without no fixed ordering cost, and a heuristic is proposed for the general case together with an error bound estimation. Moreover, our illustrates through numerical studies that incorporating reference price effect into coordinated pricing and inventory models can have a significant impact on firms' profits. Chapter 4 discusses the stochastic version of the model in Chapter 3 when customers are loss averse. It extends the associated results developed in literature and proves that the reference price dependent base-stock policy is proved to be optimal under a certain conditions. Instead of dealing with specific problems, Chapter 5 establishes the preservation of supermodularity in a class of optimization problems. This property and its extensions include several existing results in the literature as special cases, and provide powerful tools as we illustrate their applications to several operations problems: the stochastic two-product model with cross-price effects, the two-stage inventory control model, and the self-financing model.

Paths in remnant movement: A single solution to three problems in the Polish OVS syntax

On the one hand it has been advanced that remnant movement (RM) serves as a replacement for head movement and leads to certain permutations in word order while it disallows some others (e.g. Cinque (2005)), on the other hand, little attention has been devoted to the consequences RM has for clausal syntax. In this work, I illustrate one such consequence, namely the rise of crossing and nesting movement dependencies and their reflexes. In particular, I make a case for the existence of massive RM that involves entire clausal subtrees in Polish. The analysis provides a uniform solution to three robust puzzles in the Polish OVS construction in a straightforward way.

What Is The Best Indication For Single-incision Ophira Mini Sling? Insights From A 2-year Follow-up International Multicentric Study.

The Ophira Mini Sling System involves anchoring a midurethral, low-tension tape to the obturator internus muscles bilaterally at the level of the tendinous arc. Success rates in different subsets of patients are still to be defined. This work aims to identify which factors influence the 2-year outcomes of this treatment. Analysis was based on data from a multicenter study. Endpoints for analysis included objective measurements: 1-h pad-weight (PWT), and cough stress test (CST), and questionnaires: International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Short Form (ICIQ-SF) and Urinary Distress Inventory (UDI)-6. A logistic regression analysis evaluated possible risk factors for failure. In all, 124 female patients with stress urinary incontinence (SUI) underwent treatment with the Ophira procedure. All patients completed 1 year of follow-up, and 95 complied with the 2-year evaluation. Longitudinal analysis showed no significant differences between results at 1 and 2 years. The 2-year overall objective results were 81 (85.3%) patients dry, six (6.3%) improved, and eight (8.4%) incontinent. A multivariate analysis revealed that previous anti-incontinence surgery was the only factor that significantly influenced surgical outcomes. Two years after treatment, women with previous failed surgeries had an odds ratio (OR) for treatment failure (based on PWT) of 4.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-15.57). The Ophira procedure is an effective option for SUI treatment, with durable good results. Previous surgeries were identified as the only significant risk factor, though previously operated patients showed an acceptable success rate.

Reverse engineering in many-body quantum physics: Correspondence between many-body systems and effective single-particle equations

The mapping, exact or approximate, of a many-body problem onto an effective single-body problem is one of the most widely used conceptual and computational tools of physics. Here, we propose and investigate the inverse map of effective approximate single-particle equations onto the corresponding many-particle system. This approach allows us to understand which interacting system a given single-particle approximation is actually describing, and how far this is from the original physical many-body system. We illustrate the resulting reverse engineering process by means of the Kohn-Sham equations of density-functional theory. In this application, our procedure sheds light on the nonlocality of the density-potential mapping of density-functional theory, and on the self-interaction error inherent in approximate density functionals.