Fox River Watershed investigation : Stratton Dam to the Illinois River, Phase II : hydrologic models and water quality simulation models, part 2 : Blackberry and Poplar Creek HSPF models, calibration and initial simulation results /

"June 2007."

Fox River Watershed Investigation : Stratton Dam to the Illinois River : Phase II : Blackberry Creek and Poplar Creek hydrologic and water quality simulation models : executive summary.

"June 2007."

Mutation analysis to verify feature matrices for isolating errors in simulation models

Software simulation models are computer programs that need to be verified and debugged like any other software. In previous work, a method for error isolation in simulation models has been proposed. The method relies on a set of feature matrices that can be used to determine which part of the model implementation is responsible for deviations in the output of the model. Currrently these feature matrices have to be generated by hand from the model implementation, which is a tedious and error-prone task. In this paper, a method based on mutation analysis, as well as prototype tool support for the verification of the manually generated feature matrices is presented. The application of the method and tool to a model for wastewater treatment shows that the feature matrices can be verified effectively using a minimal number of mutants.

The challenges of representing human behaviour in simulation models:some case examples from supply chain, evacuation modelling and rail disruption

As more of the economy moves from traditional manufacturing to the service sector, the nature of work is becoming less tangible and thus, the representation of human behaviour in models is becoming more important. Representing human behaviour and decision making in models is challenging, both in terms of capturing the essence of the processes, and also the way that those behaviours and decisions are or can be represented in the models themselves. In order to advance understanding in this area, a useful first step is to evaluate and start to classify the various types of behaviour and decision making that are required to be modelled. This talk will attempt to set out and provide an initial classification of the different types of behaviour and decision making that a modeller might want to represent in a model. Then, it will be useful to start to assess the main methods of simulation in terms of their capability in representing these various aspects. The three main simulation methods, System Dynamics, Agent Based Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation all achieve this to varying degrees. There is some evidence that all three methods can, within limits, represent the key aspects of the system being modelled. The three simulation approaches are then assessed for their suitability in modelling these various aspects. Illustration of behavioural modelling will be provided from cases in supply chain management, evacuation modelling and rail disruption.

Developing performance measures of mangrove wetlands using simulation models of hydrology, nutrient biogeochemistry, and community dynamics

The goal of mangrove restoration projects should be to improve community structure and ecosystem function of degraded coastal landscapes. This requires the ability to forecast how mangrove structure and function will respond to prescribed changes in site conditions including hydrology, topography, and geophysical energies. There are global, regional, and local factors that can explain gradients of regulators (e.g., salinity, sulfides), resources (nutrients, light, water), and hydroperiod (frequency, duration of flooding) that collectively account for stressors that result in diverse patterns of mangrove properties across a variety of environmental settings. Simulation models of hydrology, nutrient biogeochemistry, and vegetation dynamics have been developed to forecast patterns in mangroves in the Florida Coastal Everglades. These models provide insight to mangrove response to specific restoration alternatives, testing causal mechanisms of system degradation. We propose that these models can also assist in selecting performance measures for monitoring programs that evaluate project effectiveness. This selection process in turn improves model development and calibration for forecasting mangrove response to restoration alternatives. Hydrologic performance measures include soil regulators, particularly soil salinity, surface topography of mangrove landscape, and hydroperiod, including both the frequency and duration of flooding. Estuarine performance measures should include salinity of the bay, tidal amplitude, and conditions of fresh water discharge (included in the salinity value). The most important performance measures from the mangrove biogeochemistry model should include soil resources (bulk density, total nitrogen, and phosphorus) and soil accretion. Mangrove ecology performance measures should include forest dimension analysis (transects and/or plots), sapling recruitment, leaf area index, and faunal relationships. Estuarine ecology performance measures should include the habitat function of mangroves, which can be evaluated with growth rate of key species, habitat suitability analysis, isotope abundance of indicator species, and bird census. The list of performance measures can be modified according to the model output that is used to define the scientific goals during the restoration planning process that reflect specific goals of the project.

Assessing the risk of the evolution of resistance to pesticides using spatially complex simulation models.

2008

Disc Filter External Models in an Integrated Simulation Environment

Työssä tutkittiin kiekkosuodattimeen liittyviä ulkoisia simulointimalleja integroidussa simulointiympäristössä. Työn tarkoituksena oli parantaa olemassa olevaa mekanistista kiekkosuodatinmallia. Malli laadittiin dynaamiseen paperiteollisuuden tarpeisiin tehtyyn simulaattoriin (APMS), jossa olevaan alkuperäiseen mekanistiseen malliin tehtiin ulkoinen lisämalli, joka käyttää hyväkseen kiekkosuodatinvalmistajan mittaustuloksia. Laitetiedon saatavuutta suodattimien käyttäjille parannettiin luomalla Internetissä sijaitsevalle palvelimelle kiekkosuodattimen laitetietomäärittelyt. Suodatinvalmistaja voi palvella asiakkaitaan viemällä laitetiedot palvelimelle ja yhdistämällä laitetiedon simulointimalliin. Tämä on mahdollista Internetin ylitse käytettävän integroidun simulointiympäristön avulla, jonka on tarkoitus kokonaisvaltaisesti yhdistää simulointi ja prosessisuunnittelu. Suunnittelijalle tarjotaan työkalut, joilla dynaaminen simulointi, tasesimulointi ja kaavioiden piirtäminen onnistuu prosessilaitetiedon ollessa saatavilla. Nämä työkalut on tarkoitus toteuttaa projektissa nimeltä Galleria, jossa luodaan prosessimalli- ja laitetietopalvelin Internetiin. Gallerian käyttöliittymän avulla prosessisuunnittelija voi käyttää erilaisia simulointiohjelmistoja ja niihin luotuja valmiita malleja, sekä saada käsiinsä ajan tasalla olevaa laitetietoa. Ulkoinen kiekkosuodatinmalli laskee suodosvirtaamat ja suodosten pitoisuudet likaiselle, kirkkaalle ja superkirkkaalle suodokselle. Mallin syöttöparametrit ovat kiekkojen pyörimisnopeus, sisään tulevan syötön pitoisuus, suotautuvuus (freeness) ja säätöparametri, jolla säädetään likaisen ja kirkkaan suodoksen keskinäinen suhde. Suotautuvuus kertoo mistä massasta on kyse. Mitä suurempi suotautuvuus on, sitä paremmin massa suodattuu ja sitä puhtaampia suodokset yleensä ovat. Mallin parametrit viritettiin regressioanalyysillä ja valmistajan palautetta apuna käyttäen. Käyttäjä voi valita haluaako hän käyttää ulkoista vai alkuperäistä mallia. Alkuperäinen malli täytyy ensin alustaa antamalla sille nominaaliset toimintapisteet virtaamille ja pitoisuuksille tietyllä pyörimisnopeudella. Ulkoisen mallin yhtälöitä voi käyttää alkuperäisen mallin alustamiseen, jos alkuperäinen malli toimii ulkoista paremmin. Ulkoista mallia voi käyttää myös ilman simulointiohjelmaa Galleria-palvelimelta käsin. Käyttäjälle avautuu näin mahdollisuus tarkastella kiekkosuodattimien parametreja ja nähdä suotautumistulokset oman työasemansa ääreltä mistä tahansa, kunhan Internetyhteys on olemassa. Työn tuloksena kiekkosuodattimien laitetiedon saatavuus käyttäjille parani ja alkuperäisen simulointimallin rajoituksia ja puutteita vähennettiin.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part I: Literature review

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasingly complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I) reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develops conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to building simulation scientists, initiates a dialogue and builds bridges between scientists and engineers, and stimulates future research about a wide range of issues on building environmental systems.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part II: Conceptual frameworks

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasing complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I), published in the previous issue, reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develop conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to (1) building simulation scientists and designers (2) initiating a dialogue between scientists and engineers, and (3) stimulating future research on a wide range of issues involved in designing and managing building environmental systems.

Comparing simulation output accuracy of discrete event and agent based models: a quantitative approach

In our research we investigate the output accuracy of discrete event simulation models and agent based simulation models when studying human centric complex systems. In this paper we focus on human reactive behaviour as it is possible in both modelling approaches to implement human reactive behaviour in the model by using standard methods. As a case study we have chosen the retail sector, and here in particular the operations of the fitting room in the women wear department of a large UK department store. In our case study we looked at ways of determining the efficiency of implementing new management policies for the fitting room operation through modelling the reactive behaviour of staff and customers of the department. First, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our models to the performance of the real system. This experiment also allowed us to establish differences in output accuracy between the two modelling methods. In a second step a multi-scenario experiment was carried out to study the behaviour of the models when they are used for the purpose of operational improvement. Overall we have found that for our case study example both, discrete event simulation and agent based simulation have the same potential to support the investigation into the efficiency of implementing new management policies.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective: water and nitrogen effects on spring wheat in a semi-arid environment

Systems approaches can help to evaluate and improve the agronomic and economic viability of nitrogen application in the frequently water-limited environments. This requires a sound understanding of crop physiological processes and well tested simulation models. Thus, this experiment on spring wheat aimed to better quantify water x nitrogen effects on wheat by deriving some key crop physiological parameters that have proven useful in simulating crop growth. For spring wheat grown in Northern Australia under four levels of nitrogen (0 to 360 kg N ha(-1)) and either entirely on stored soil moisture or under full irrigation, kernel yields ranged from 343 to 719 g m(-2). Yield increases were strongly associated with increases in kernel number (9150-19950 kernels m(-2)), indicating the sensitivity of this parameter to water and N availability. Total water extraction under a rain shelter was 240 mm with a maximum extraction depth of 1.5 m. A substantial amount of mineral nitrogen available deep in the profile (below 0.9 m) was taken up by the crop. This was the source of nitrogen uptake observed after anthesis. Under dry conditions this late uptake accounted for approximately 50% of total nitrogen uptake and resulted in high (>2%) kernel nitrogen percentages even when no nitrogen was applied,Anthesis LAI values under sub-optimal water supply were reduced by 63% and under sub-optimal nitrogen supply by 50%. Radiation use efficiency (RUE) based on total incident short-wave radiation was 1.34 g MJ(-1) and did not differ among treatments. The conservative nature of RUE was the result of the crop reducing leaf area rather than leaf nitrogen content (which would have affected photosynthetic activity) under these moderate levels of nitrogen limitation. The transpiration efficiency coefficient was also conservative and averaged 4.7 Pa in the dry treatments. Kernel nitrogen percentage varied from 2.08 to 2.42%. The study provides a data set and a basis to consider ways to improve simulation capabilities of water and nitrogen effects on spring wheat. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.