Aggregate vs disaggregate data analysis: a paradox in the estimation of money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy

We investigate the issue of whether there was a stable money demand function for Japan in 1990's using both aggregate and disaggregate time series data. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of liquidity trapo Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when heterogeneity among micro units is present. The prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations. Moreover. policy evaluation based on aggregate data can be grossly misleading.

Generalized linear mixed models for the genetic evaluation of binary reproductive traits: a simulation study

The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of probit and logit link functions for the genetic evaluation of early pregnancy using simulated data. The following simulation/analysis structures were constructed: logit/logit, logit/probit, probit/logit, and probit/probit. The percentages of precocious females were 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30% and were adjusted based on a change in the mean of the latent variable. The parametric heritability (h²) was 0.40. Simulation and genetic evaluation were implemented in the R software. Heritability estimates (ĥ²) were compared with h² using the mean squared error. Pearson correlations between predicted and true breeding values and the percentage of coincidence between true and predicted ranking, considering the 10% of bulls with the highest breeding values (TOP10) were calculated. The mean ĥ² values were under- and overestimated for all percentages of precocious females when logit/probit and probit/logit models used. In addition, the mean squared errors of these models were high when compared with those obtained with the probit/probit and logit/logit models. Considering ĥ², probit/probit and logit/logit were also superior to logit/probit and probit/logit, providing values close to the parametric heritability. Logit/probit and probit/logit presented low Pearson correlations, whereas the correlations obtained with probit/probit and logit/logit ranged from moderate to high. With respect to the TOP10 bulls, logit/probit and probit/logit presented much lower percentages than probit/probit and logit/logit. The genetic parameter estimates and predictions of breeding values of the animals obtained with the logit/logit and probit/probit models were similar. In contrast, the results obtained with probit/logit and logit/probit were not satisfactory. There is need to compare the estimation and prediction ability of logit and probit link functions.

The Potential of Tariff Policy for Climate Change Mitigation: Legal and Economic Analysis

This paper addresses a potential role that tariffs and tariff policy can play in encouraging countries to take part in a multilateral effort to mitigate climate change. It begins by assessing whether increasing tariffs on products from energy intensive or polluting industries amounts to a violation of WTO rules and whether protectionism in this case can be differentiated from genuine environmental concerns. It then argues that while lowering tariffs for environmental goods can serve as a carrot to promote dissemination of cleaner technologies, tariff deconsolidation is a legitimate stick to encourage polluting countries to move towards an international climate agreement. The paper further explores this view by undertaking a partialequilibrium simulation analysis to examine the impact of a unilateral unit increase in tariffs on the imports of the most carbon-intensive products from countries not committed to climate polices. Our results suggest that the committed importing countries would have to raise their tariffs only slightly to effect a significant decline in the imports of these products from the non-committed countries. For instance, a unit increase in the simple average applied tariffs on the imports of these carbon-intensive products in 2005 from our sample of non-committed exporting countries would reduce the imports of these products by an average 32.6% in Australia, 178% in Canada, 195% in the EU, 271% in Japan and 62% in the US, therebysuggesting the effectiveness of such a measure in pushing countries towards a global climate policy.

Wind-blown mosquitoes and introduction of Japanese encephalitis into Australia

Backtrack simulation analysis indicates that wind-blown mosquitoes could have traveled from New Guinea to Australia, potentially introducing Japanese encephalitis virus. Large incursions of the virus in 1995 and 1998 were linked with low-pressure systems that sustained strong northerly winds from New Guinea to the Cape York Peninsula.

Simulação de processos de adsorção recorrendo ao Aspen Chromatography

As operações de separação por adsorção têm vindo a ganhar importância nos últimos anos, especialmente com o desenvolvimento de técnicas de simulação de leitos móveis em colunas, tal como a cromatografia de Leito Móvel Simulado (Simulated Moving Bed, SMB). Esta tecnologia foi desenvolvida no início dos anos 60 como método alternativo ao processo de Leito Móvel Verdadeiro (True Moving Bed, TMB), de modo a resolver vários dos problemas associados ao movimento da fase sólida, usuais nestes métodos de separação cromatográficos de contracorrente. A tecnologia de SMB tem sido amplamente utilizada em escala industrial principalmente nas indústrias petroquímica e de transformação de açúcares e, mais recentemente, na indústria farmacêutica e de química fina. Nas últimas décadas, o crescente interesse na tecnologia de SMB, fruto do alto rendimento e eficiente consumo de solvente, levou à formulação de diferentes modos de operação, ditos não convencionais, que conseguem unidades mais flexíveis, capazes de aumentar o desempenho de separação e alargar ainda mais a gama de aplicação da tecnologia. Um dos exemplos mais estudados e implementados é o caso do processo Varicol, no qual se procede a um movimento assíncrono de portas. Neste âmbito, o presente trabalho foca-se na simulação, análise e avaliação da tecnologia de SMB para dois casos de separação distintos: a separação de uma mistura de frutose-glucose e a separação de uma mistura racémica de pindolol. Para ambos os casos foram considerados e comparados dois modos de operação da unidade de SMB: o modo convencional e o modo Varicol. Desta forma, foi realizada a implementação e simulação de ambos os casos de separação no simulador de processos Aspen Chromatography, mediante a utilização de duas unidades de SMB distintas (SMB convencional e SMB Varicol). Para a separação da mistura frutose-glucose, no quediz respeito à modelização da unidade de SMB convencional, foram utilizadas duas abordagens: a de um leito móvel verdadeiro (modelo TMB) e a de um leito móvel simulado real (modelo SMB). Para a separação da mistura racémica de pindolol foi considerada apenas a modelização pelo modelo SMB. No caso da separação da mistura frutose-glucose, procedeu-se ainda à otimização de ambas as unidades de SMB convencional e Varicol, com o intuito do aumento das suas produtividades. A otimização foi realizada mediante a aplicação de um procedimento de planeamento experimental, onde as experiências foram planeadas, conduzidas e posteriormente analisadas através da análise de variância (ANOVA). A análise estatística permitiu selecionar os níveis dos fatores de controlo de modo a obter melhores resultados para ambas as unidades de SMB.

LNT: a logical neighbor tree secure group communication scheme for wireless sensor networks

Secure group communication is a paradigm that primarily designates one-to-many communication security. The proposed works relevant to secure group communication have predominantly considered the whole network as being a single group managed by a central powerful node capable of supporting heavy communication, computation and storage cost. However, a typical Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) may contain several groups, and each one is maintained by a sensor node (the group controller) with constrained resources. Moreover, the previously proposed schemes require a multicast routing support to deliver the rekeying messages. Nevertheless, multicast routing can incur heavy storage and communication overheads in the case of a wireless sensor network. Due to these two major limitations, we have reckoned it necessary to propose a new secure group communication with a lightweight rekeying process. Our proposal overcomes the two limitations mentioned above, and can be applied to a homogeneous WSN with resource-constrained nodes with no need for a multicast routing support. Actually, the analysis and simulation results have clearly demonstrated that our scheme outperforms the previous well-known solutions.

Screening for gestational diabetes: variation in guidelines.

OBJECTIVE: To compare published guidelines concerning screening for gestational diabetes. STUDY DESIGN: Systematic search and comparative analysis of published guidelines. Appraisal of guidelines quality. Simulation analysis. RESULTS: Ten published guidelines proposed either universal screening (5), selective screening (3) or screening when clinically indicated (2). Variations of testing schedules and blood glucose thresholds were observed. The quality of the published guidelines was low, on average 22 (8-51) percentage points on the assessment scale. These differences would have led to large variations in the number of patients to be screened. CONCLUSIONS: Large variations between guidelines have been observed which would translate in large practice variations, if the guidelines were systematically applied. These variations are partially explained by the absence of definite evidence that universal or selective screening for gestational diabetes do more good than harm on infant and maternal health. The methodology of developing guidelines should be more evidence based, systematic and explicit.

Typage de la classe génotypique du gène PRDM9 à partir de données de séquençage de Nouvelle Génération

Les positions des évènements de recombinaison s’agrègent ensemble, formant des hotspots déterminés en partie par la protéine à évolution rapide PRDM9. En particulier, ces positions de hotspots sont déterminées par le domaine de doigts de zinc (ZnF) de PRDM9 qui reconnait certains motifs d’ADN. Les allèles de PRDM9 contenant le ZnF de type k ont été préalablement associés avec une cohorte de patients affectés par la leucémie aigüe lymphoblastique. Les allèles de PRDM9 sont difficiles à identifier à partir de données de séquençage de nouvelle génération (NGS), en raison de leur nature répétitive. Dans ce projet, nous proposons une méthode permettant la caractérisation d’allèles de PRDM9 à partir de données de NGS, qui identifie le nombre d’allèles contenant un type spécifique de ZnF. Cette méthode est basée sur la corrélation entre les profils représentant le nombre de séquences nucléotidiques uniques à chaque ZnF retrouvés chez les lectures de NGS simulées sans erreur d’une paire d’allèles et chez les lectures d’un échantillon. La validité des prédictions obtenues par notre méthode est confirmée grâce à analyse basée sur les simulations. Nous confirmons également que la méthode peut correctement identifier le génotype d’allèles de PRDM9 qui n’ont pas encore été identifiés. Nous conduisons une analyse préliminaire identifiant le génotype des allèles de PRDM9 contenant un certain type de ZnF dans une cohorte de patients atteints de glioblastomes multiforme pédiatrique, un cancer du cerveau caractérisé par les mutations récurrentes dans le gène codant pour l’histone H3, la cible de l’activité épigénétique de PRDM9. Cette méthode ouvre la possibilité d’identifier des associations entre certains allèles de PRDM9 et d’autres types de cancers pédiatriques, via l’utilisation de bases de données de NGS de cellules tumorales.

El sistema multifondos de pensiones colombiano bajo las nuevas teorías del comportamiento financiero

En Colombia, después de casi dos décadas de la creación del régimen de cuentas privadas, se implementó una reforma donde se pasa de un sistema con un unico fondo a uno multifondos. Este tipo de reformas se vienen implementando en diferentes paises europeos y de Latino America. A la luz de las teorías clásicas dicha reforma trae mejoras en el bienestar de los individuos; sin embargo, la literatura sobre las nuevas teorías del comportamiento sugiere que los individuos no siempre toman decisiones que están de acuerdo con los supuestos de las teorías clásicas. Este trabajo estudia esta reforma en Colombia bajo algunas de las teorías del comportamiento financiero. Se encuentra que aún cuando el afiliado se quede en la opción default , o actúe con aversión a la pérdida, va a obtener valores en sus cuentas privadas mayores a las que obtendría con un sistema de un único fondo.

El sistema multifondos de pensiones colombiano bajo las nuevas teorías del comportamiento financiero

En Colombia, después de casi dos décadas de la creación del régimen de cuentas privadas, se implementó una reforma donde se pasa de un sistema con un único fondo a uno multifondos. Este tipo de reformas se vienen implementando en diferentes países europeos y de Latino América. A la luz de las teorías clásicas dicha reforma trae mejoras en el bienestar de los individuos; sin embargo, la literatura sobre las nuevas teorías del comportamiento sugiere que los individuos no siempre toman decisiones que están de acuerdo con los supuestos de las teorías clásicas. Este trabajo estudia esta reforma en Colombia bajo algunas de las teorías del comportamiento financiero. Se encuentra que aún cuando el afiliado se quede en la opción default , o actúe con aversión a la pérdida, va a obtener valores en sus cuentas privadas mayores a las que obtendría con un sistema de un único fondo.

Modelos de presupuestación de capital en finanzas corporativas y utilidad de los mismos

La siguiente investigación describe una aproximación teórica al tema de los modelos de presupuestación de capital, el objetivo fundamental se basa en comprender su enfoque e importancia al momento de tomar decisiones de inversión por parte de los directores de una empresa, así como de prever los efectos de esta en un futuro. Al respecto, y sobre la base de que los modelos de presupuestación de capital son herramientas para analizar posibles erogaciones de capital por parte de una empresa, es necesario para efectos del presente proyecto de investigación, definir sus diferentes modelos desde lo teórico y metodológico, explicando los diferentes conceptos relacionados con el tema. Así mismo, se explican algunos de los indicadores financieros utilizados en las compañías para medir y estimar la “salud financiera” de la empresa, además de puntualizar su impacto en la perdurabilidad de las entidades, lo cual permite dar una visión más general sobre la importancia que trasciende de los indicadores financieros, generando un impacto positivo en la evolución o crecimiento de la organización. En complemento, la investigación aborda la presupuestación de capital de manera particular aplicado en la gestión empresarial, sean estas privadas o públicas (estatal y gubernamental). En este sentido, se abordan conceptos elaborados por diferentes académicos en los que se exponen algunas aproximaciones respecto al posible mejoramiento de la presupuestación para los sectores a los que pertenecen determinadas entidades. Finalmente, se presenta de manera explícita las conclusiones que surgieron a lo largo de la construcción del documento de investigación, con el fin de dar cumplimiento concreto al objetivo general del trabajo, el cual constituye una respuesta a la pregunta de investigación que se enunciará en el desarrollo del documento.

A Demographic Model to Evaluate Population Declines in the Endangered Streaked Horned Lark

The Streaked Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris strigata) is listed as endangered by the State of Washington, USA and by Canada under the Species at Risk Act and is also classified as a federal candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act in the USA. A substantial portion of Streaked Horned Lark habitat has been lost or degraded, and range contraction has occurred in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We estimate the vital rates (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival) and population growth rate (λ) for Streaked Horned Larks breeding in Washington, USA and conduct a Life-Stage Simulation Analysis (LSA) to evaluate which vital rate has the greatest influence on λ. We simulated changes in the three vital rates to examine how much they would need to be adjusted either independently or in concert to achieve a stable Streaked Horned Lark population (λ = 1). We also evaluated which fecundity component (the number of fledglings per egg laid or renesting interval) had the greatest impact on λ. The estimate of population growth suggests that Streaked Horned Larks in Washington are declining rapidly (λ = 0.62 ± 0.10) and that local breeding sites are not sustainable without immigration. The LSA results indicate that adult survival had the greatest influence on λ, followed by juvenile survival and fecundity. However, increases in vital rates led to λ = 1 only when adult survival was raised from 0.47 to 0.85, juvenile survival from 0.17 to 0.58, and fecundity from 0.91 to 3.09. Increases in breeding success and decreases in the renesting interval influenced λ similarly; however, λ did not reach 1 even when breeding success was raised to 100% or renesting intervals were reduced to 1 day. Only when all three vital rates were increased simultaneously did λ approach 1 without requiring highly unrealistic increases in each vital rate. We conclude that conservation activities need to target all or multiple vital rates to be successful. The baseline data presented here and subsequent efforts to manage Streaked Horned Larks will provide valuable information for management of other declining Horned Lark subspecies and other grassland songbirds across North America.

Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops

Crop production is inherently sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature is a major determinant of the rate of plant development and, under climate change, warmer temperatures that shorten development stages of determinate crops will most probably reduce the yield of a given variety. Earlier crop flowering and maturity have been observed and documented in recent decades, and these are often associated with warmer (spring) temperatures. However, farm management practices have also changed and the attribution of observed changes in phenology to climate change per se is difficult. Increases in atmospheric [CO2] often advance the time of flowering by a few days, but measurements in FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) field-based experiments suggest that elevated [CO2] has little or no effect on the rate of development other than small advances in development associated with a warmer canopy temperature. The rate of development (inverse of the duration from sowing to flowering) is largely determined by responses to temperature and photoperiod, and the effects of temperature and of photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures can be quantified and predicted. However, responses to temperature, and more particularly photoperiod, at supraoptimal temperature are not well understood. Analysis of a comprehensive data set of time to tassel initiation in maize (Zea mays) with a wide range of photoperiods above and below the optimum suggests that photoperiod modulates the negative effects of temperature above the optimum. A simulation analysis of the effects of prescribed increases in temperature (0-6 degrees C in + 1 degrees C steps) and temperature variability (0% and + 50%) on days to tassel initiation showed that tassel initiation occurs later, and variability was increased, as the temperature exceeds the optimum in models both with and without photoperiod sensitivity. However, the inclusion of photoperiod sensitivity above the optimum temperature resulted in a higher apparent optimum temperature and less variability in the time of tassel initiation. Given the importance of changes in plant development for crop yield under climate change, the effects of photoperiod and temperature on development rates above the optimum temperature clearly merit further research, and some of the knowledge gaps are identified herein.

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world`s biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of Sao Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design. Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulação computacional da parte elétrica do problema de geração de fluxo eletrohidrodinâmico

Pós-graduação em Ciência da Computação - IBILCE