Entropy application to improve construction finance decisions

In financial decision-making processes, the adopted weights of the objective functions have significant impacts on the final decision outcome. However, conventional rating and weighting methods exhibit difficulty in deriving appropriate weights for complex decision-making problems with imprecise information. Entropy is a quantitative measure of uncertainty and has been useful in exploring weights of attributes in decision making. A fuzzy and entropy-based mathematical approach is employed to solve the weighting problem of the objective functions in an overall cash-flow model. The multiproject being undertaken by a medium-size construction firm in Hong Kong was used as a real case study to demonstrate the application of entropy. Its application in multiproject cash flow situations is demonstrated. The results indicate that the overall before-tax profit was HK$ 0.11 millions lower after the introduction of appropriate weights. In addition, the best time to invest in new projects arising from positive cash flow was identified to be two working months earlier than the nonweight system.

The elasticity of demand is about occupancy, not prices: building European demand curves based on occupancy elasticity

The peak congestion of the European grid may create significant impacts on system costs because of the need for higher marginal cost generation, higher cost system balancing and increasing grid reinforcement investment. The use of time of use rates, incentives, real time pricing and other programmes, usually defined as Demand Side Management (DSM), could bring about significant reductions in prices, limit carbon emissions from dirty power plants, and improve the integration of renewable sources of energy. Unlike previous studies on elasticity of residential electricity demand under flat tariffs, the aim of this study is not to investigate the known relatively inelastic relationship between demand and prices. Rather, the aim is to assess how occupancy levels vary in different European countries. This reflects the reality of demand loads, which are predominantly determined by the timing of human activities (e.g. travelling to work, taking children to school) rather than prices. To this end, two types of occupancy elasticity are estimated: baseline occupancy elasticity and peak occupancy elasticity. These represent the intrinsic elasticity associated with human activities of single residential end-users in 15 European countries. This study makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time Use Survey database to build European occupancy curves; identify peak occupancy periods; draw time use demand curves for video and TV watching activity; and estimate national occupancy elasticity levels of single-occupant households. Findings on occupancy elasticities provide an indication of possible DSM strategies based on occupancy levels and not prices.

Ventilation in a street canyon under diurnal heating conditions

To study the thermal effects on airflow in a street canyon under real heating conditions (due to diurnal solar radiation), a one-way static approach combining an urban canopy model and CFD is proposed in this paper. An urban canopy model was developed to calculate the individual temperatures of surfaces in the street canyon. The calculated surface temperature may be used as a thermal boundary for CFD simulation. The reliability of this model was validated against a field experiment in Harbin, China. Using the coupling calculation method, the wind flow and air exchange process inside an idealized street canyon was studied. The simulation results show that the thermal effect has significant impacts on the transfer process in the street canyon, especially when the approaching wind is weak. Under a real diurnal thermal forcing, the flow structure within the street canyon changes from one primary vortex to two counter-rotating vortices. The change of transfer process, induced by the buoyancy force, was determined by the thermal condition of all surfaces rather than a single one. Key words: thermal effect, street canyon, numerical simulation, transfer process, diurnal heating.

Competition for land

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future.

A review of time use models of residential electricity demand

Residential electricity demand in most European countries accounts for a major proportion of overall electricity consumption. The timing of residential electricity demand has significant impacts on carbon emissions and system costs. This paper reviews the data and methods used in time use studies in the context of residential electricity demand modelling. It highlights key issues which are likely to become more topical for research on the timing of electricity demand following the roll-out of smart metres.

Caring responsibilities, change and transitions in young people's family lives in Zambia

Despite diversity in family dynamics within and between societies, globally, it is adults who are usually relied upon to care for family members who are sick, disabled or have other care needs. Young people in Zambia and other African countries affected by the HIV epidemic are under increasing pressure to obtain a good education and employment to support their families, whilst some also have to cope with the loss of parents and care for relatives with little external support. This article discusses the findings of qualitative research that explored the experiences of young people (aged 14-30) who had significant family caring responsibilities and those without such responsibilities in Zambia. Interviews and life-mapping methods were conducted with a total of 35 young people living in rural and urban areas, 12 parents and relatives and 12 professionals. We analyse young people's experiences and perceptions of socially expected transitions, such as completing education and earning an income to support themselves and their families, in addition to more unpredictable changes in young people's family lives. ‘Critical moments’ (Thomson et al, 2002), such as bereavement and loss of parents and other family members, disinheritance of assets and property grabbing, migration and mobility between different relatives homes, parental divorce and separation, often had significant impacts on young people’s ability to navigate their pathways to adulthood according to wider social norms and expectations. A more relational conceptualisation of youth transitions is needed that takes account of young people's caring responsibilities and changing family dynamics.

Within-canopy sesquiterpene ozonolysis in Amazonia

Through rapid reactions with ozone, which can initiate the formation of secondary organic aerosols, the emission of sesquiterpenes from vegetation in Amazonia may have significant impacts on tropospheric chemistry and climate. Little is known, however, about sesquiterpene emissions, transport, and chemistry within plant canopies owing to analytical difficulties stemming from very low ambient concentrations, high reactivities, and sampling losses. Here, we present ambient sesquiterpene concentration measurements obtained during the 2010 dry season within and above a primary tropical forest canopy in Amazonia. We show that by peaking at night instead of during the day, and near the ground instead of within the canopy, sesquiterpene concentrations followed a pattern different from that of monoterpenes, suggesting that unlike monoterpene emissions, which are mainly light dependent, sesquiterpene emissions are mainly temperature dependent. In addition, we observed that sesquiterpene concentrations were inversely related with ozone (with respect to time of day and vertical concentration), suggesting that ambient concentrations are highly sensitive to ozone. These conclusions are supported by experiments in a tropical rain forest mesocosm, where little atmospheric oxidation occurs and sesquiterpene and monoterpene concentrations followed similar diurnal patterns. We estimate that the daytime dry season ozone flux of -0.6 to -1.5 nmol m(-2) s(-1) due to in-canopy sesquiterpene reactivity could account for 7%-28% of the net ozone flux. Our study provides experimental evidence that a large fraction of total plant sesquiterpene emissions (46%-61% by mass) undergo within-canopy ozonolysis, which may benefit plants by reducing ozone uptake and its associated oxidative damage.

The impact of big-boxes on local retail : What happens when IKEA comes to town?

The development of large discount retailers, or big-boxes as they are sometimes referred to, are often subject to heated debate and their entry on a market is greeted with either great enthusiasm or dread. For instance, the world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart (Forbes 2014) has a number of anti- and pro-groups dedicated to its being and the event of a Wal-Mart entry tends to be met with protests and campaigns (Decamme 2013) but also welcomed by, for instance, consumers (Davis & DeBonis 2013). Also in Sweden, the entry of a big box is a hot topic and before IKEA’s opening i Borlänge 2013, the first in Sweden in more than five years, great expectations were mixed with worry (Västerbottens-Kuriren 2011).The presence of large scale discount retailers is not, however, a novel phenomenon but a part of a long-term change in retailing that has taken place globally over the past couple of decades (Taylor & Smalling, 2005). As noted by Dawson (2006), the trend in Europe has over the past few decades gone towards an increasing concentration of large firms along with a decrease of smaller firms.This trend is also detectable in the Swedish retail industry. Over the past decade, the retailing industry in Sweden has increased by around 190 Billion SEK, and its share of GDP has risen from 2,7% to 2,9%, while the number of employees have increased from 200 000 to 250 000 (HUI 2013). This growth, however, has not been distributed evenly but rather it has been oriented mainly towards out-of-town retail clusters. Parallel to this development, the number of large retailers has risen at the expense of market shares of smaller independent firms (Rämme et al 2010). Thereby, the presence of large scale retailers is simply part of a changing retail landscape.The effects of this development, where large scale retailing agents relocate shopping to out-of-town shopping areas, have been heavily debated. On the one hand, the big-boxes are accused of displacing independent small retail businesses in the city-centers and the residential areas, resulting in, to some extent, reduced employment opportunities and less availability for the consumers - especially the elderly (Ljungberg et al 2006). In addition, as access to shopping now tends to require some sort of a motorized vehicle, environmental aspects to the discussion have emerged. Ultimately these types of concerns have resulted in calls for regulations against this development (Olsson 2010). On the other hand, the proponents of the new shopping landscape argue that this evolution implies productivity gains, the benefits of lower prices and an increased variety of products (Maican & Orth 2012). Moreover it is argued that it leads to, for instance, better services (such as longer opening hours) and a creative destruction transformation pressure on retailers, which brings about a renewal of city-centerIIretail and services, increasing their attractivity (Bergström 2010). The belief in benefits of a big box entry can be exemplified by the attractivity of IKEA, and the fact that municipalities are prepared to commit to expenses amounting up to hundreds of millions in order to attract the entry of this big-box. Borlänge municipality, for instance, agreed to expenses of about 350 million SEK in order to secure the entry of IKEA, which opened in 2013 (Blomgren 2009).Against this backdrop, the overall effects of large discount retailers become important: Are the economic benefits enough to warrant subsidies or are there, on the contrary, some very compelling grounds for regulations against these types of establishments? In other words; how is overall retail in a region where a store like IKEA enters affected? And how are local retail firms affected?In order to answer these questions, the purpose of this thesis is to study how entry of a big-box retailer affects the entry region. The object of this study is IKEA - one of the world’s largest retailers, with 345 stores, active in over 40 countries and with profits of about 3.3 billion (IKEA 2013; IKEA 2014). By studying the effects of IKEA-entry, both on an aggregated level and on firm level, this thesis intends to find indications of how large discount retail establishments in general can be expected to affect the economic development both in a region overall, but also on the local firm level, something which is of interest to both policymakers as well as the retailing industry in general.The first paper examines the effects of IKEA on retail revenues and employment in the municipalities that IKEA chose to enter between 2000 and 2011; Gothenburg, Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad. By means of a matching method we first identify non-entry municipalities that have a similar probability of IKEA entry as the true entry municipalities. Then, using these non-entry municipalities as a control group, the causal effects of IKEA entry can be estimated using a treatment-control approach. We also extend the analysis to examine the spatial impact of IKEA by estimating the effects on retail in neighboring municipalities. It is found that a new IKEA store increases revenues in durable goods trade with 20% in the entry municipality and the number of employees with 17%. Only small, and in most cases statistically insignificant, negative effects were found in neighboring municipalities.It appears that there is a positive net effect on durables retail sales and employment in the entry municipality. However, the analysis is based on data on an aggregated municipality level and thereby it remains unclear if and how the effects vary within the entry municipalities. In addition, the data used in the first study includes the sales and employment of IKEA itself, which could account for the majority of the increases in employment and retail. Thereby the potential spillover effects on incumbent retailers in the entry municipalities cannot be discerned in the first study.IIITo examine effects of IKEA entry on incumbent retail firms, the second paper in this thesis analyses how IKEA entry affects the revenues and employment of local retail firms in three municipalities; Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad, which experienced entry by IKEA between 2000 and 2010. In this second study, we exclude Gothenburg due to the fact that big-box entry appears to have weaker effects in metropolitan areas (as indicated by Artz & Stone 2006). By excluding Gothenburg we aim to reduce the geographical heterogeneity in our study. We obtain control municipalities that are as similar as possible to the three entry municipalities using the same method as in the previous study, but including a slightly different set of variables in the selection equation. Using similar retail firms in the control municipalities as our comparison group, we estimate the impact of IKEA entry on revenues and employment for retail firms located at varying distances from the IKEA entry site.The results generated in this study imply that entry by IKEA increases revenues in incumbent retail firms by, on average, 11% in the entry municipalities. In addition, we do not find any significant impact on retail revenues in the city centers of the entry municipalities. However, we do find that retail firms within 1 km of the IKEA experience increases in revenues of about 26%, which indicates large spillover effects in the area nearby the entry site. As expected, this impact decreases as we expand the buffer zone: firms located between 0-2 km experiences a 14% increase and firms in 2-5 km experiences an increase of 10%. We do not find any significant impacts on retail employment.

Manutenção produtiva total: o caso da Eletronorte

The continuous search of the increase of the productivity has been facilitating the growing diffusion of modern and advanced technologies, that open new ways for the renovation of the industrial productive process, as well as, to the appearance of modern administration systems that establish ways in direction to the democratization of the social relationships in the organizations. Accompanying that tendency and, motivated by the competitive characteristic of the market of electric energy, Eletronorte, adopted the Total Productive Maintenance - TPM, of japanese origin, as the system of administration of its productive process. This dissertation has as objective, to analyze the methodological content of the Total Productive Maintenance, showing its significance and its reach in the Regional of Transmission of Mato Grosso, adopting the post fordism, as comparison paradigm. The whole study and analysis had as focus the offices of the company and the Substation of Coxipó, placed in the city of Cuiabá, as well as the Substations of Rondonópolis and Sinop, placed in cities with the same name. The offices and the substations are geographically located in the state of Mato Grosso, and under the responsibility of the Regional of Transmission of Mato Grosso, of the Centrais Elétricas do Norte do Brasil SA - Eletronorte. The work method was of qualitative orientation and of case study, through a research of applied nature. The research was accomplished with explanatory and exploratory objectives. They were used as instruments of collection of data the analysis of documents, interviews, and application of questionnaires. The data collected through documents and of the application of questionnaires they were compiled and analyzed. The results of the interviews had for objective to confirm the consistency of the collected data. The obtained results demonstrate increases of productivity of the order of 40%, and reduction of the costs of up to 29%. The study still demonstrated, that TPM provoked significant impacts in the practices you work, denoting the presence of an action managerial dialógica. It was still characterized that the transference of TPM will depend in that context the administration system will be applied, because if this is here different from it studied, there won't be transference warranties.

Consumo familiar: efeitos da valorização do salário mínimo nas decisões de gasto das famílias brasileiras, nordestinas e potiguares, no período de 1995 a 2011

This research objectify to analyze the effects of minimum wage recovery in the household consumption in the Brazil, northeastern region of the Brazil and the state of the Rio Grande do Norte, in the period of 1995 to 2011. This is because the search for the strengthening of the internal market, via incentive policies to private demand has assumed prominence in the Government agenda. Thus, under the justification of the fierce debate about the effectiveness of countercyclical policies of Brazil, in view of the recent economic crisis, aims to: 1) retake the theoretical debate and, to a certain extent, the evolution of the theory of household consumption, as well as some conclusions about their connection with the minimum wage; 2) to describe the experiences and the effects of this legislation in economic history, with emphasis on the Brazilian case; 3) to present some of the available statistics to research bases, with attention to the specifics of each and the empirical results found for consumption in Brazil; 4) to estimate the effects of minimum wage variation in household consumption in Brazil (BR), northeast (NE) and Rio Grande do Norte (RN). From this, in order to quantify this relationship, makes inferences from the effects of the wage bill and the minimum wage on consumption, in quarterly series (with ad hoc adjustment from the "weights" of each quarter), from classic model of multiple linear regression. The hypothesis is that released: increments in income, derived from the policy of minimum wage recovery will influence directly the household consumption. However, when comparing the results between the units analyzed, the expressiveness of the northeastern families of Brazil and Rio Grande do Norte families front national dynamics with income linked to this floor, drives most significant impacts spending decisions in NE and RN, thus reducing regional disparities in the consumer. The results indicate contrary evidence, because while for the BR a unitary variation in minimum wage increases the consumption in units monetary 1.28, to the NE and RN these parameters are respectively 1.05 and 1.09

Avaliação dos impactos ambientais gerados por uma industria cerâmica típica da Região do Seridó/RN

The present work deals with an evaluation of the environmental impacts arised from a typical ceramics industry located in the Seridó region of Rio Grande do Norte State. That region contains the largest State s producing basin of red ceramics. The district of Parelhas stands out as the largest producing nucleus. The studied company is located in the rural zone of Parelhas, it was selected as study object because it possesses a great part of the representative characteristics of the Region s ceramics park as a whole. Impacts produced at the implantation and operation phases of the Company had been evaluated, being this last phase subdivided in stages of the productive process. Among found adverse impacts, they are distinguished: losses in air quality, undesirable noises, microclimatic alterations, impoverishment of the ground, elimination of the vegetal covering, agricultural exodus, crisis in cattle agriculture and, superficial and underground water contamination, beyond risks ocupational diseases and industrial accidents. The Leopold s interactive matrix, that summarizes results of the work, was presented in form of 15 (fifteen) tables that display impacts classified in qualitative and quantitative way. Totally, 175 (one hundred and seventy-five) significant impacts produced by this Company had been identified, being 114 (one hundred and fourteen) negative, 38 (thirty-eight) positive and 23 (twenty-three) among mixed, indefinite and inert ones. In the work, before the evaluation of impacts properly said, it was constructed a diagnostic table of the ambient situation at a previous moment to implantation of the Company, elaborated on basis of inferences and historical researches. It was proposed still, mitigative steps for adverse impacts identified, as also elaborated a program to accompaniment and observing that the fulfilment of indicated mitigative steps guarantees. The final part of the work contemplates conclusions and suggestions that aim to influence positively the presented sight in terms of environmental management

Integração de critérios técnicos, ambientais e sociais em estudos de alternativas locacionais para implantação de aterro sanitário

A Política Nacional do Meio Ambiente tem como objetivo a conciliação do desenvolvimento econômico e social com a qualidade ambiental, e dispõe de vários instrumentos que procuram contemplara capacidade de suporte do meio. Assim, a discussão sobre a localização das atividades é uma etapa importante para a avaliação da viabilidade ambiental de um determinado empreendimento, notadamente em processos de licenciamento ambiental. O trabalho apresenta uma abordagem metodológica para integração de critérios técnicos, ambientais e sociais em estudos de alternativas de localização de aterros sanitários, com especial atenção à interação entre os aspectos ambientais e os elementos fundamentais de um projeto (a saber, requisitos locacionais e concepção tecnológica), aplicado em um estudo de caso em São Carlos (SP). Como resultados principais, destacam-se o maior foco nos impactos significativos e a possibilidade de envolvimento de segmentos importantes da sociedade previamente à elaboração dos estudos ambientais.

Influência do cultivo de camarões marinhos em tanque-rede sobre a qualidade da água e a estrutura da comunidade zooplanctônica na Baía de Guaratuba, Paraná

Objetivou-se com este estudo avaliar os impactos ambientais causados por um sistema de cultivo de camarões marinhos em tanque-rede sobre a qualidade da água e sobre a estrutura da comunidade zooplanctônica. O estudo foi realizado na Baía de Guaratuba, onde os cultivos eram realizados em 300 tanques-rede (3,6 m de comprimento, 3,6 m de largura e 2 m de profundidade) distribuídos em uma área de 4.200 m², em densidade de 720 camarões/m². As concentrações de amônia, nitrito e fosfato na água foram monitoradas e amostras de zooplâncton foram coletadas no local dos cultivos (ponto 1) e em outros três pontos localizados a aproximadamente 200 m para oeste, noroeste e sudeste dos tanques. O ponto 5, usado como controle, localizava-se a aproximadamente 1.000 m a sudoeste da área de produção. As concentrações de nitrogênio amoniacal, nitrito e fosfato não diferiram entre os pontos amostrados, assim como a estrutura da comunidade zooplanctônica, que foi semelhante entre os pontos amostrados. Não foram evidenciados impactos significativos do empreendimento sobre a qualidade da água ou sobre estrutura das comunidades zooplanctônicas no local do cultivo e em áreas adjacentes, durante o período em que a investigação foi conduzida.

Agricultural incentives, growth and poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean: cross-country evidence for the period 1960-2005. Did trade liberalization increase the incomes of the poorest?

Includes bibliography

Regional environmental policy and sustainable tourism development in the Caribbean

Includes bibliography