Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Retiring to the good life? The short-term effects of retirement on health

We estimate the impact of retirement on three subjective and objective measures of health using a regression discontinuity design. The results indicate that retirement increases an individual's sense of well-being and their mental health but not necessarily their physical health. Specifications tests suggest that the results are robust.

Randomized controlled trial of cognitive-behavioural therapy for coexisting depression and alcohol problems : short-term outcome

AIMS: Alcohol use disorders and depression co-occur frequently and are associated with poorer outcomes than when either condition occurs alone. The present study (Depression and Alcohol Integrated and Single-focused Interventions; DAISI) aimed to compare the effectiveness of brief intervention, single-focused and integrated psychological interventions for treatment of coexisting depression and alcohol use problems. METHODS: Participants (n = 284) with current depressive symptoms and hazardous alcohol use were assessed and randomly allocated to one of four individually delivered interventions: (i) a brief intervention only (single 90-minute session) with an integrated focus on depression and alcohol, or followed by a further nine 1-hour sessions with (ii) an alcohol focus; (iii) a depression focus; or (iv) an integrated focus. Follow-up assessments occurred 18 weeks after baseline. RESULTS: Compared with the brief intervention, 10 sessions were associated with greater reductions in average drinks per week, average drinking days per week and maximum consumption on 1 day. No difference in duration of treatment was found for depression outcomes. Compared with single-focused interventions, integrated treatment was associated with a greater reduction in drinking days and level of depression. For men, the alcohol-focused rather than depression-focused intervention was associated with a greater reduction in average drinks per day and drinks per week and an increased level of general functioning. Women showed greater improvements on each of these variables when they received depression-focused rather than alcohol-focused treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated treatment may be superior to single-focused treatment for coexisting depression and alcohol problems, at least in the short term. Gender differences between single-focused depression and alcohol treatments warrant further study.

A short-term evaluation of a school-based early adolescent injury prevention program

This paper reports on the development of a school-based intervention to reduce risk-taking and associated injuries. There is limited but important evidence that intervention design should ensure participation does not lead to an increase in target risk behaviors with some studies in alcohol and drug prevention finding unexpected negative effects. The short-term evaluation of Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) examined change in interpersonal violence, alcohol and transport-related risks. Intervention (n = 360) and comparison (n = 180) students were surveyed pre/post-intervention. A qualitative analysis based on focus groups (70 students) explored experiences of change. Findings indicate significant positive changes reinforced by students’ reports. A decrease in reported risk-taking for the intervention group and an increase in the comparison group were observed. These findings endorse SPIY as a useful curriculum approach to reducing injuries and lend support to the future conduct of a long-term outcome evaluation.

The effectiveness of a short-term group music therapy intervention for parents who have a child with a disability

The relationship between the quality of parent-child interactions and positive child developmental trajectories is well established (Guralnick, 2006; Shonkoff & Meissels, 2000; Zubrick et al., 2008). However, a range of parental, family, and socio-economic factors can pose risks to parents’ capacity to participate in quality interactions with their children. In particular, families with a child with a disability have been found to have higher levels of parenting stress, and are more likely to experience economic disadvantage, as well as social isolation. The importance of early interventions to promote positive parenting and child development for these families is widely recognised (Shonkoff & Meissels, 2000). However, to date, there is a lack of evidence about the effectiveness of early parenting programs for families who have a young child with a disability. This thesis investigates the impact of a music therapy parenting program, Sing & Grow, on 201 parent-child dyads who attended programs specifically targeted to parents who had a young child with a disability. Sing & Grow is an Australian national early parenting intervention funded by the Australian Government Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs and delivered by Playgroup Queensland. It is designed and delivered by Registered Music Therapists for families with children aged from birth to three years. It aims to improve parenting skills and confidence, improve family functioning (positive parent-child interactions), enhance child development, and provide social networking opportunities to socially isolated families. The intervention targets a range of families in circumstances that have the potential to impact negatively on family functioning. This thesis uses data from the National Evaluation Study of Sing & Grow from programs which were targeted at families who had a young child with a disability. Three studies were conducted to address the objectives of this thesis. Study 1 examines the effects of the Sing & Grow intervention on parent reported pre and post parent mental health, parenting confidence, parenting skills, and child development, and other parent reported outcomes including social support, use of intervention resources, satisfaction with the intervention and perceived benefits of and barriers to participation. Significant improvements from pre to post were found for parent mental health and parent reported child communication and social skills, along with evidence that parents were very satisfied with the program and that it brought social benefits to families. Study 2 explored the pre to post effects of the intervention on children’s developmental skills and parent-child interactions using observational ratings made by clinicians. Significant pre to post improvements were found for parenting sensitivity, parental engagement with child and acceptance of child as well as for child responsiveness to parent, interest, and participation in the intervention, and social skills. Study 3 examined the nature of child and family characteristics that predicted better outcomes for families while taking account of the level of participation in the program. An overall outcome index was calculated and served as the dependent variable in a logistic regression analysis. Families who attended six or more sessions and mothers who had not completed high school were more likely to have higher outcome scores at post intervention than those who attended fewer sessions and those with more educated mothers respectively. The findings of this research indicate that the intervention had a positive impact on participants’ mental health, parenting behaviours and child development and that level of attendance was associated with better outcomes. There was also evidence that the program reached its target of high risk families (i.e., families in which mothers had lower educational levels) and that for these families better outcomes were achieved. There were also indications that the program was accessible and highly regarded by families and that it promoted social connections for participants. A theoretical model of how the intervention is currently working for families is proposed to explain the connections between early parenting, child development and maternal wellbeing. However, more research is required to further elucidate the mechanisms by which the intervention creates change for families. This research presents promising evidence that a short term group music therapy program can elicit important therapeutic benefits for families who have a child with a disability.

The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in Tianjin, China : comparison of time series and case–crossover analyses

Background: Many studies have illustrated that ambient air pollution negatively impacts on health. However, little evidence is available for the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in Tianjin, China. Also, no study has examined which strata length for the time-stratified case–crossover analysis gives estimates that most closely match the estimates from time series analysis. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the effects of air pollutants on CVM in Tianjin, China, and compare time-stratified case–crossover and time series analyses. Method: A time-stratified case–crossover and generalized additive model (time series) were applied to examine the impact of air pollution on CVM from 2005 to 2007. Four time-stratified case–crossover analyses were used by varying the stratum length (Calendar month, 28, 21 or 14 days). Jackknifing was used to compare the methods. Residual analysis was used to check whether the models fitted well. Results: Both case–crossover and time series analyses show that air pollutants (PM10, SO2 and NO2) were positively associated with CVM. The estimates from the time-stratified case–crossover varied greatly with changing strata length. The estimates from the time series analyses varied slightly with changing degrees of freedom per year for time. The residuals from the time series analyses had less autocorrelation than those from the case–crossover analyses indicating a better fit. Conclusion: Air pollution was associated with an increased risk of CVM in Tianjin, China. Time series analyses performed better than the time-stratified case–crossover analyses in terms of residual checking.

The effectiveness of a short-term group music therapy intervention for parents who have a child with a disability

Background The relationship between positive parent-child interactions and optimal child development is well established. Families with a child with a disability may face additional challenges to establishing positive parent-child relationships. There are limited studies addressing the effectiveness of interventions which seek to address these issues with parents and young children with a disability. In particular, prior studies of music therapy with this group have been limited by small sample sizes and the use of measures of limited reliability and validity. Objective This study investigates the effectiveness of a short-term group music therapy intervention for parents who have a child with a disability and explores the factors associated with higher outcomes for participating families. Methods The participants were 201 mother-child dyads, where the child had a disability. Pre and post intervention parental questionnaires and clinician observation measures were taken on a range of parental wellbeing, parenting behaviours and child developmental factors. Descriptive data, t-tests for repeated measures and a predictive model tested via logistic regression are presented. Results Significant improvements pre to post were found for parent mental health, child communication and social skills, parenting sensitivity, parental engagement with child and acceptance of child, child responsiveness to parent, and child interest and participation in program activities. There was also evidence that parents were very satisfied with the program and that it brought social benefits to families. Reliable change on six or more indicators of parent or child functioning was predicted by attendance and parent education. Conclusions This study provides positive evidence for the effectiveness of group music therapy in promoting improved parental mental health, positive parenting and key child developmental areas. Whilst several limitations are discussed, the study does address some of the gaps in the music therapy evidence base in this area.

Short-term retention of labeled chondrocyte subpopulations in stratified tissue-engineered cartilaginous constructs implanted in vivo in mini-pigs

It is likely that effective application of cell-laden implants for cartilage defects depends on retention of implanted cells and interaction between implanted and host cells. The objectives of this study were to characterize stratified cartilaginous constructs seeded sequentially with superficial (S) and middle (M) chondrocyte subpopulations labelled with fluorescent cell tracking dye PKH26 (*) and determine the degree to which these stratified cartilaginous constructs maintain their architecture in vivo after implantation in mini-pigs for 1 week. Alginate-recovered cells were seeded sequentially to form stratified S*/M (only S cells labelled) and S*/M* (both S and M cells labelled) constructs. Full-thickness defects (4 mm diameter) were created in the patellofemoral groove of adult Yucatan mini-pigs and filled with portions of constructs or left empty. Constructs were characterized biochemically, histologically, and biomechanically, and stratification visualized and quantified, before and after implant. After 1 week, animals were sacrificed and implants retrieved. After 1 week in vivo, glycosaminoglycan and collagen content of constructs remained similar to that at implant, whereas DNA content increased. Histological analyses revealed features of an early repair response, with defects filled with tissues containing little matrix and abundant cells. Some implanted (PKH26-labeled) cells persisted in the defects, although constructs did not maintain a stratified organization. Of the labelled cells, 126 +/- 38% and 32 +/- 8% in S*/M and S*/M* constructs, respectively, were recovered. Distribution of labelled cells indicated interactions between implanted and host cells. Longer-term in vivo studies will be useful in determining whether implanted cells are sufficient to have a positive effect in repair.

Categorisation of activities of daily living of lower limb amputees during short-term use of a portable kinetic recording system : a preliminary study

The purpose of this preliminary study was to determine the relevance of the categorization of the load regime data to assess the functional output and usage of the prosthesis of lower limb amputees. The objectives were a) to introduce a categorization of load regime, b) to present some descriptors of each activity, and c) to report the results for a case. The load applied on the osseointegrated fixation of one transfemoral amputee was recorded using a portable kinetic system for 5 hours. The periods of directional locomotion, localized locomotion, and stationary loading occurred 44%, 34%, and 22% of recording time and each accounted for 51%, 38%, and 12% of the duration of the periods of activity, respectively. The absolute maximum force during directional locomotion, localized locomotion, and stationary loading was 19%, 15%, and 8% of the body weight on the anteroposterior axis, 20%, 19%, and 12% on the mediolateral axis, and 121%, 106%, and 99% on the long axis. A total of 2,783 gait cycles were recorded. Approximately 10% more gait cycles and 50% more of the total impulse than conventional analyses were identified. The proposed categorization and apparatus have the potential to complement conventional instruments, particularly for difficult cases.