Prediction of visibility and aerosol within the operational Met Office unified model. I: Model formulation and variational assimilation

The formulation and performance of the Met Office visibility analysis and prediction system are described. The visibility diagnostic within the limited-area Unified Model is a function of humidity and a prognostic aerosol content. The aerosol model includes advection, industrial and general urban sources, plus boundary-layer mixing and removal by rain. The assimilation is a 3-dimensional variational scheme in which the visibility observation operator is a very nonlinear function of humidity, aerosol and temperature. A quality control scheme for visibility data is included. Visibility observations can give rise to humidity increments of significant magnitude compared with the direct impact of humidity observations. We present the results of sensitivity studies which show the contribution of different components of the system to improved skill in visibility forecasts. Visibility assimilation is most important within the first 6-12 hours of the forecast and for visibilities below 1 km, while modelling of aerosol sources and advection is important for slightly higher visibilities (1-5 km) and is still significant at longer forecast times

Scalable model-based configuration management of security services in complex enterprise networks

Security administrators face the challenge of designing, deploying and maintaining a variety of configuration files related to security systems, especially in large-scale networks. These files have heterogeneous syntaxes and follow differing semantic concepts. Nevertheless, they are interdependent due to security services having to cooperate and their configuration to be consistent with each other, so that global security policies are completely and correctly enforced. To tackle this problem, our approach supports a comfortable definition of an abstract high-level security policy and provides an automated derivation of the desired configuration files. It is an extension of policy-based management and policy hierarchies, combining model-based management (MBM) with system modularization. MBM employs an object-oriented model of the managed system to obtain the details needed for automated policy refinement. The modularization into abstract subsystems (ASs) segment the system-and the model-into units which more closely encapsulate related system components and provide focused abstract views. As a result, scalability is achieved and even comprehensive IT systems can be modelled in a unified manner. The associated tool MoBaSeC (Model-Based-Service-Configuration) supports interactive graphical modelling, automated model analysis and policy refinement with the derivation of configuration files. We describe the MBM and AS approaches, outline the tool functions and exemplify their applications and results obtained. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Chaotic phase synchronization and desynchronization in an oscillator network for object selection

Object selection refers to the mechanism of extracting objects of interest while ignoring other objects and background in a given visual scene. It is a fundamental issue for many computer vision and image analysis techniques and it is still a challenging task to artificial Visual systems. Chaotic phase synchronization takes place in cases involving almost identical dynamical systems and it means that the phase difference between the systems is kept bounded over the time, while their amplitudes remain chaotic and may be uncorrelated. Instead of complete synchronization, phase synchronization is believed to be a mechanism for neural integration in brain. In this paper, an object selection model is proposed. Oscillators in the network representing the salient object in a given scene are phase synchronized, while no phase synchronization occurs for background objects. In this way, the salient object can be extracted. In this model, a shift mechanism is also introduced to change attention from one object to another. Computer simulations show that the model produces some results similar to those observed in natural vision systems.

Word of mouth marketing in the digital age: a case study analysis of viral marketing campaigns

A era digital viu a ascensão da empresa focada no consumidor. Todos os dias, marcas e produtos são objeto de milhões de conversas em que os consumidores trocam pontos de vista, opiniões e informações antes de tomar a decisão de compra. Os profissionais de marketing entenderam a importância do boca a boca como um novo canal de comunicação estratégica e começaram a ancorar técnicas de boca a boca à estratégia de marketing global. A propaganda tornou-se um negócio de conversa: o novo desafio do marketing é criar um conteúdo envolvente e compartilhável que possa expandir e ressoar dentro de redes de sociais de consumidores. Quanto mais as pessoas falam sobre a sua marca, mais a probabilidade de ganhar a competição dura e aumentar as vendas. Mas como o boca a boca funciona? O que faz uma campanha de marketing um sucesso viral? Este trabalho tem como objetivo fornecer uma análise abrangente da teoria de marketing de boca a boca e usa um modelo descritivo para investigar as variáveis-chave de campanhas bem-sucedidas de marketing viral, a fim de proporcionar insights e sugestões para as práticas de marketing viral.

DYNAMICAL SYMMETRY BREAKING IN A MINIMAL 3-3-1 MODEL

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century, links to supplementary material

We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the MAREMIP and CMIP5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement ona dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44° S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58° S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58° S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet, in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO 2 (aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44° S all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44° S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30° S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (~10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic CO2 uptake when integrated over a full annual cycle south of 30° S.

Prediction of vapor-moisture equilibriums for a wood-moisture system using a modified UNIQUAC model

A modified UNIQUAC model has been extended to describe and predict the equilibrium relative humidity and moisture content for wood. The method is validated over a range of moisture content from oven-dried state to fiber saturation point, and over a temperature range of 20-70 degrees C. Adjustable parameters and binary interaction parameters of the UNIQUAC model were estimated from experimental data for Caribbean pine and Hoop pine as well as data available in the literature. The two group-interaction parameters for the wood-moisture system were consistent with using function group contributions for H2O, -OH and -CHO. The result reconfirms that the main contributors to water adsorption in cell walls are the hydroxyl groups of the carbohydrates in cellulose and hemicelluloses. This provides some physical insight into the intermolecular force and energy between bound water and the wood material. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clustering strategies for object databases

When object databases arrived on the scene some ten years ago, they provided database capabilities for previously neglected, complex applications, such as CAD, but were burdened with one inherent teething problem, poor performance. Physical database design is one tool that can provide performance improvements and it is the general area of concern for this thesis. Clustering is one fruitful design technique which can provide improvements in performance. However, clustering in object databases has not been explored in depth and so has not been truly exploited. Further, clustering, although a physical concern, can be determined from the logical model. The object model is richer than previous models, notably the relational model, and so it is anticipated that the opportunities with respect to clustering are greater. This thesis provides a thorough analysis of object clustering strategies with a view to highlighting any links between the object logical and physical model and improving performance. This is achieved by considering all possible types of object logical model construct and the implementation of those constructs in terms of theoretical clusterings strategies to produce actual clustering arrangements. This analysis results in a greater understanding of object clustering strategies, aiding designers in the development process and providing some valuable rules of thumb to support the design process.

Formal Specification of Relational Model of Data in Z-Notation

Владимир Димитров - Целта на настоящия доклад е формалната спецификация на релационния модел на данни. Тази спецификация след това може да бъде разширена към Обектно-релационния модел на данни и към Потоците от данни.

Experimental validation of a predictive pyrolysis model in AspenPlus®

A novel simulation model for pyrolysis processes oflignocellulosicbiomassin AspenPlus (R) was presented at the BC&E 2013. Based on kinetic reaction mechanisms, the simulation calculates product compositions and yields depending on reactor conditions (temperature, residence time, flue gas flow rate) and feedstock composition (biochemical composition, atomic composition, ash and alkali metal content). The simulation model was found to show good correlation with existing publications. In order to further verify the model, own pyrolysis experiments in a 1 kg/h continuously fed fluidized bed fast pyrolysis reactor are performed. Two types of biomass with different characteristics are processed in order to evaluate the influence of the feedstock composition on the yields of the pyrolysis products and their composition. One wood and one straw-like feedstock are used due to their different characteristics. Furthermore, the temperature response of yields and product compositions is evaluated by varying the reactor temperature between 450 and 550 degrees C for one of the feedstocks. The yields of the pyrolysis products (gas, oil, char) are determined and their detailed composition is analysed. The experimental runs are reproduced with the corresponding reactor conditions in the AspenPlus model and the results compared with the experimental findings.

Entrepreneurship in project management systems: proposal of a model and preliminary empirical evidence

This study analyzes the manifestation of the dimensions of Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) and Project Management Systems (PMS). We used a qualitative approach to conduct exploratory research through a study in literature and a pilot case in a software company. Data was collected from semi structured interviews, documents, and records on file, then triangulated and treated with content analysis. The model proposed for the relationship between the types of PMS (ad hoc, Classic PM, innovation, entrepreneurship/intrapreneurship) and the dimensions of EO (innovativeness, risk-taking, proactiveness, competitive aggressiveness, and autonomy), was partially corroborated by empirical studies. New studies are suggested to validate the applicability and setup of the model.

Instantaneous outbursts in underground coal mines: An overview and association with coal type

Instantaneous outbursts in underground coal mines have occurred in at least 16 countries, involving both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2). The precise mechanisms of an instantaneous outburst are still unresolved but must consider the effects of stress, gas content and physico-mechanical properties of the coal. Other factors such as mining methods (e.g., development heading into the coal seam) and geological features (e.g., coal seam disruptions from faulting) can combine to exacerbate the problem. Prediction techniques continue to be unreliable and unexpected outburst incidents resulting in fatalities are a major concern for underground coal operations. Gas content thresholds of 9 m(3)/t for CH4 and 6 m(3)/t for CO2 are used in the Sydney Basin, to indicate outburst-prone conditions, but are reviewed on an individual mine basis and in mixed as situations. Data on the sorption behaviour of Bowen Basin coals from Australia have provided an explanation for the conflicting results obtained by coal face desorption indices used for outburst-proneness assessment. A key factor appears to be different desorption rates displayed by banded coals, which is supported by both laboratory and mine-site investigations. Dull coal bands with high fusinite and semifusinite contents tend to display rapid desorption from solid coal, for a given pressure drop. The opposite is true for bright coal bands with high vitrinite contents and dull coal bands with high inertodetrinite contents. Consequently, when face samples of dull, fusinite-or semifusinite-rich coal of small particle size are taken for desorption testing, much gas has already escaped and low readings result. The converse applies for samples taken from coal bands with high vitrinite and/or inertodetrinite contents. In terms of outburst potential, it is the bright, vitrinite-rich and the dull, inertodetrinite-rich sections of a coal seam that appear to be more outburst-prone. This is due to the ability of the solid coal to retain gas, even after pressure reduction, creating a gas content gradient across the coal face sufficient to initiate an outburst. Once the particle size of the coal is reduced, rapid gas desorption can then take place. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science.

Field assessment of thermal after-ripening time for dormancy release prediction in Lolium rigidum seeds

Dormancy release was studied in four populations of annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum) seeds to determine whether loss of dormancy in the field can be predicted from temperature alone or whether seed water content (WC) must also be considered. Freshly matured seeds were after-ripened at the northern and southern extremes of the Western Australian cereal cropping region and at constant 37degreesC. Seed WC was allowed to fluctuate with prevailing humidity, but full hydration was avoided by excluding rainfall. Dormancy was measured regularly during after-ripening by germinating seeds with 12-hourly light or in darkness. Germination was lower in darkness than in light/dark and dormancy release was slower when germination was tested in darkness. Seeds were consistently drier, and dormancy release was slower, during after-ripening at 37degreesC than under field conditions. However, within each population, the rate of dormancy release in the field (north and south) in terms of thermal time was unaffected by after-ripening site. While low seed WC slowed dormancy release in seeds held at 37degreesC, dormancy release in seeds after-ripened under Western Australian field conditions was adequately described by thermal after-ripening time, without the need to account for changes in WC elicited by fluctuating environmental humidity.

Information internalisation in internationalising the firm

Internationalisation occurs when the firm expands its selling, production, or other business activities into international markets. Many enterprises, especially small- and medium-size firms (SMEs), are internationalising today at an unprecedented rate. Managers are strategically using information to achieve degrees of internationalisation previously considered the domain of large firms. We extend existing explanations of firm internationalisation by examining the nature and fundamental, antecedent role of internalising appropriate information and translating it into relevant knowledge. Based on case studies of internationalising firms, we advance a conceptualisation of information internalisation and knowledge creation within the firm as it achieves internationalisation readiness. In the process, we offer several propositions intended to guide future research. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.