Seismic Risk Scenarios in Puerto Principe (Haiti). A Tool for Reconstruction and Emergency Planning

The 12 January 2010, an earthquake hit the city of Port-au-Prince, capital of Haiti. The earthquake reached a magnitude Mw 7.0 and the epicenter was located near the town of Léogâne, approximately 25 km west of the capital. The earthquake occurred in the boundary region separating the Caribbean plate and the North American plate. This plate boundary is dominated by left-lateral strike slip motion and compression, and accommodates about 20 mm/y slip, with the Caribbean plate moving eastward with respect to the North American plate (DeMets et al., 2000). Initially the location and focal mechanism of the earthquake seemed to involve straightforward accommodation of oblique relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault system (EPGFZ), however Hayes et al., (2010) combined seismological observations, geologic field data and space geodetic measurements to show that, instead, the rupture process involved slip on multiple faults. Besides, the authors showed that remaining shallow shear strain will be released in future surface-rupturing earthquakes on the EPGFZ. In December 2010, a Spanish cooperation project financed by the Politechnical University of Madrid started with a clear objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. One of the tasks of the project was devoted to vulnerability assessment of the current building stock and the estimation of seismic risk scenarios. The study was carried out by following the capacity spectrum method as implemented in the software SELENA (Molina et al., 2010). The method requires a detailed classification of the building stock in predominant building typologies (according to the materials in the structure and walls, number of stories and age of construction) and the use of the building (residential, commercial, etc.). Later, the knowledge of the soil characteristics of the city and the simulation of a scenario earthquake will provide the seismic risk scenarios (damaged buildings). The initial results of the study show that one of the highest sources of uncertainties comes from the difficulty of achieving a precise building typologies classification due to the craft construction without any regulations. Also it is observed that although the occurrence of big earthquakes usually helps to decrease the vulnerability of the cities due to the collapse of low quality buildings and the reconstruction of seismically designed buildings, in the case of Port-au-Prince the seismic risk in most of the districts remains high, showing very vulnerable areas. Therefore the local authorities have to drive their efforts towards the quality control of the new buildings, the reinforcement of the existing building stock, the establishment of seismic normatives and the development of emergency planning also through the education of the population.

A Study on the liquefaction risk in seismic design of foundations

A fully coupled non-linear effective stress response finite difference (FD) model is built to survey the counter-intuitive recent findings on the reliance of pore water pressure ratio on foundation contact pressure. Two alternative design scenarios for a benchmark problem are explored and contrasted in the light of construction emission rates using the EFFC-DFI methodology. A strain-hardening effective stress plasticity model is adopted to simulate the dynamic loading. A combination of input motions, contact pressure, initial vertical total pressure and distance to foundation centreline are employed, as model variables, to further investigate the control of permanent and variable actions on the residual pore pressure ratio. The model is verified against the Ghosh and Madabhushi high acceleration field test database. The outputs of this work is aimed to improve the current computer-aided seismic foundation design that relies on ground’s packing state and consistency. The results confirm that on seismic excitation of shallow foundations, the likelihood of effective stress loss is greater in deeper depths and across free field. For the benchmark problem, adopting a shallow foundation system instead of piled foundation benefitted in a 75% less emission rate, a marked proportion of which is owed to reduced materials and haulage carbon cost.

AMPLITUDE-VERSUS-ANGLE ANALYSIS AND WIDE-ANGLE-INVERSION OF CROSSWELL SEISMIC DATA IN A CARBONATE RESERVOIR

Crosswell data set contains a range of angles limited only by the geometry of the source and receiver configuration, the separation of the boreholes and the depth to the target. However, the wide angles reflections present in crosswell imaging result in amplitude-versus-angle (AVA) features not usually observed in surface data. These features include reflections from angles that are near critical and beyond critical for many of the interfaces; some of these reflections are visible only for a small range of angles, presumably near their critical angle. High-resolution crosswell seismic surveys were conducted over a Silurian (Niagaran) reef at two fields in northern Michigan, Springdale and Coldspring. The Springdale wells extended to much greater depths than the reef, and imaging was conducted from above and from beneath the reef. Combining the results from images obtained from above with those from beneath provides additional information, by exhibiting ranges of angles that are different for the two images, especially for reflectors at shallow depths, and second, by providing additional constraints on the solutions for Zoeppritz equations. Inversion of seismic data for impedance has become a standard part of the workflow for quantitative reservoir characterization. Inversion of crosswell data using either deterministic or geostatistical methods can lead to poor results with phase change beyond the critical angle, however, the simultaneous pre-stack inversion of partial angle stacks may be best conducted with restrictions to angles less than critical. Deterministic inversion is designed to yield only a single model of elastic properties (best-fit), while the geostatistical inversion produces multiple models (realizations) of elastic properties, lithology and reservoir properties. Geostatistical inversion produces results with far more detail than deterministic inversion. The magnitude of difference in details between both types of inversion becomes increasingly pronounced for thinner reservoirs, particularly those beyond the vertical resolution of the seismic. For any interface imaged from above and from beneath, the results AVA characters must result from identical contrasts in elastic properties in the two sets of images, albeit in reverse order. An inversion approach to handle both datasets simultaneously, at pre-critical angles, is demonstrated in this work. The main exploration problem for carbonate reefs is determining the porosity distribution. Images of elastic properties, obtained from deterministic and geostatistical simultaneous inversion of a high-resolution crosswell seismic survey were used to obtain the internal structure and reservoir properties (porosity) of Niagaran Michigan reef. The images obtained are the best of any Niagaran pinnacle reef to date.

The Moho reflectivity from ambient seismic noise autocorrelations beneath the Western Alps

The lower crustal structure beneath the Western Alps -- including the Moho -- bears the signature of past and present geodynamic processes. It has been the subject of many studies until now. However, its current knowledge still leaves significant open questions. In order to derive new information, independent from previous determinations, here I wish to address this topic using a different method --- ambient seismic noise autocorrelation --- that is for the first time applied to reveal Moho depth in the Western Alps. Moho reflections are identified by picking reflectivity changes in ambient seismic noise autocorrelations. The seismic data is retrieved from more than 200 broadband seismic stations, from the China--Italy--France Alps (CIFALPS) linear seismic network, and from a subset of the AlpArray Seismic Network (AASN). The automatically-picked reflectivity changes along the CIFALPS transect in the southwestern Alps show the best results in the 0.5--1 Hz frequency band. The autocorrelation reflectivity profile of the CIFALPS transect shows a steeper subduction profile,~55 to ~70 km, of the European Plate underneath the Adriatic Plate. The dense spacing of the CIFALPS network facilitates the detection of lateral continuity of crustal structure, and of the Ivrea mantle wedge reaching shallow crustal depths in the southwestern Alps. The data of the AASN stations are filtered in the 0.4--1 and 0.5--1 Hz frequency bands. Although the majority of the stations give the same Moho depth for the different frequency bands, the few stations with different Moho depths shows the care that has to be taken when choosing the frequency band for filtering the autocorrelation stacks. The new Moho depth maps by using the AASN stations are a compilation of the first and second picked reflectivity changes. The results show the complex crust-mantle structure with clear differences between the northwestern and southwestern Alps.

High-resolution stratigraphy and seismic site characterization of late Quaternary paleovalley systems (Adriatic coastal plain, Italy)

In highly urbanized coastal lowlands, effective site characterization is crucial for assessing seismic risk. It requires a comprehensive stratigraphic analysis of the shallow subsurface, coupled with the precise assessment of the geophysical properties of buried deposits. In this context, late Quaternary paleovalley systems, shallowly buried fluvial incisions formed during the Late Pleistocene sea-level fall and filled during the Holocene sea-level rise, are crucial for understanding seismic amplification due to their soft sediment infill and sharp lithologic contrasts. In this research, we conducted high-resolution stratigraphic analyses of two regions, the Pescara and Manfredonia areas along the Adriatic coastline of Italy, to delineate the geometries and facies architecture of two paleovalley systems. Furthermore, we carried out geophysical investigations to characterize the study areas and perform seismic response analyses. We tested the microtremor-based horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio as a mapping tool to reconstruct the buried paleovalley geometries. We evaluated the relationship between geological and geophysical data and identified the stratigraphic surfaces responsible for the observed resonances. To perform seismic response analysis of the Pescara paleovalley system, we integrated the stratigraphic framework with microtremor and shear wave velocity measurements. The seismic response analysis highlights strong seismic amplifications in frequency ranges that can interact with a wide variety of building types. Additionally, we explored the applicability of artificial intelligence in performing facies analysis from borehole images. We used a robust dataset of high-resolution digital images from continuous sediment cores of Holocene age to outline a novel, deep-learning-based approach for performing automatic semantic segmentation directly on core images, leveraging the power of convolutional neural networks. We propose an automated model to rapidly characterize sediment cores, reproducing the sedimentologist's interpretation, and providing guidance for stratigraphic correlation and subsurface reconstructions.

From Offshore to Onshore: Multiple Origins of Shallow-Water Corals from Deep-Sea Ancestors

Shallow-water tropical reefs and the deep sea represent the two most diverse marine environments. Understanding the origin and diversification of this biodiversity is a major quest in ecology and evolution. The most prominent and well-supported explanation, articulated since the first explorations of the deep sea, holds that benthic marine fauna originated in shallow, onshore environments, and diversified into deeper waters. In contrast, evidence that groups of marine organisms originated in the deep sea is limited, and the possibility that deep-water taxa have contributed to the formation of shallow-water communities remains untested with phylogenetic methods. Here we show that stylasterid corals (Cnidaria: Hydrozoa: Stylasteridae)-the second most diverse group of hard corals-originated and diversified extensively in the deep sea, and subsequently invaded shallow waters. Our phylogenetic results show that deep-water stylasterid corals have invaded the shallow-water tropics three times, with one additional invasion of the shallow-water temperate zone. Our results also show that anti-predatory innovations arose in the deep sea, but were not involved in the shallow-water invasions. These findings are the first robust evidence that an important group of tropical shallow-water marine animals evolved from deep-water ancestors.

Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

Gold-implanted shallow conducting layers in polymethylmethacrylate

PMMA (polymethylmethacrylate) was ion implanted with gold at very low energy and over a range of different doses using a filtered cathodic arc metal plasma system. A nanometer scale conducting layer was formed, fully buried below the polymer surface at low implantation dose, and evolving to include a gold surface layer as the dose was increased. Depth profiles of the implanted material were calculated using the Dynamic TRIM computer simulation program. The electrical conductivity of the gold-implanted PMMA was measured in situ as a function of dose. Samples formed at a number of different doses were subsequently characterized by Rutherford backscattering spectrometry, and test patterns were formed on the polymer by electron beam lithography. Lithographic patterns were imaged by atomic force microscopy and demonstrated that the contrast properties of the lithography were well maintained in the surface-modified PMMA.

Shallow-water species of Beania Johnston, 1840 (Bryozoa, Cheilostomata) from the tropical and subtropical Western Atlantic

This paper describes four new species of the bryozoan genus Beania from the Brazilian coast. Two of them have been previously recorded in the western Atlantic as Beania hirtissima (Heller, 1867) and Beania mirabilis Johnston, 1840, respectively; they are redescribed here as Beania americana n. sp. and Beania mirabilissima n. sp. Two reticulate species, Beania correiae n. sp. and Beania metrii n. sp., are newly described. Descriptions of four other species of Beania from the region are also included: Beania australis Busk, 1852, Beania cupulariensis Osburn, 1914, Beania klugei Cook, 1968 and Beania maxilladentata Ramalho, Muricy & Taylor, 2010.

Joint forces and torques when walking in shallow water

This study reports for the first time an estimation of the internal net joint forces and torques on adults` lower limbs and pelvis when walking in shallow water, taking into account the drag forces generated by the movement of their bodies in the water and the equivalent data when they walk on land. A force plate and a video camera were used to perform a two-dimensional gait analysis at the sagittal plane of 10 healthy young adults walking at comfortable speeds on land and in water at a chest-high level. We estimated the drag force on each body segment and the joint forces and torques at the ankle, knee, and hip of the right side of their bodies using inverse dynamics. The observed subjects` apparent weight in water was about 35% of their weight on land and they were about 2.7 times slower when walking in water. When the subjects walked in water compared with walking on land, there were no differences in the angular displacements but there was a significant reduction in the joint torques which was related to the water`s depth. The greatest reduction was observed for the ankle and then the knee and no reduction was observed for the hip. All joint powers were significantly reduced in water. The compressive and shear joint forces were on average about three times lower during walking in water than on land. These quantitative results substantiate the use of water as a safe environment for practicing low-impact exercises, particularly walking. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental study of a Tollmien-Schlichting wave interacting with a shallow 3D roughness element

The paper is devoted to an experimental study of the effect of a shallow 3D roughness element on the evolution of a 2D Tollmien-Schlichting wave in a Blasius boundary layer. The experiments were carried out under controlled disturbance conditions on an airfoil section which could provide a long run with zero pressure gradient flow. A pneumatically driven slit source was used to introduce the Tollmien-Schilichting wave upstream of the lower branch of the neutral stability curve. A few wavelengths downstream, the T-S wave interacts with a cylindrical roughness element. The height of the roughness was slowly oscillating in time, which allows a continuous measurement of the T-S wave response downstream the roughness. The oscillation frequency was approximately 1500 times lower than the frequency of the studied Tollmien-Schlichting wave and therefore, behaved as a steady roughness with respect to the T-S wave. Hot wire anemometry was used to measure wall normal profiles and spanwise scans close to the maximum of the eigenfunction of the T-S wave. The oscillation of the roughness and the synchronization of all-equipments permitted the use of ensemble average techniques. Two different amplitudes of T-S waves with a non-dimensional frequency of F120E-06 were studied. They show a strong amplification of the disturbances in a small spanwise wave number range. The analysis of the wall normal T-S profiles suggests the growth of oblique modes.

Magma Flow Instabilities in a Volcanic Conduit: Implications for Long-Period Seismicity

Silicic volcanic eruptions are typically accompanied by repetitive Long-Period (LP) seismicity that originates from a small region of the upper conduit. These signals have the capability to advance eruption prediction, since they commonly precede a change in the eruption vigour. Shear bands forming along the conduit wall, where the shear stresses are highest, have been linked to providing the seismic trigger. However, existing computational models are unable to generate shear bands at the depths where the LP signals originate using simple magma strength models. Presented here is a model in which the magma strength is determined from a constitutive relationship dependent upon crystallinity and pressure. This results in a depth-dependent magma strength, analogous to planetary lithospheres. Hence, in shallow highly-crystalline regions a macroscopically discontinuous brittle type of deformation will prevail, whilst in deeper crystal-poor regions there will be a macroscopically continuous plastic deformation mechanism. This will result in a depth where the brittle-ductile transition occurs, and here shear bands disconnected from the free-surface may develop. We utilize the Finite Element Method and use axi-symmetric coordinates to model magma flow as a viscoplastic material, simulating quasi-static shear bands along the walls of a volcanic conduit. Model results constrained to the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, show the generation of two types of shear bands: upper-conduit shear bands that form between the free-surface to a few 100 metres below it and discrete shear bands that form at the depths where LP seismicity is measured to occur corresponding to the brittle-ductile transition and the plastic shear region. It is beyond the limitation of the model to simulate a seismic event, although the modelled viscosity within the discrete shear bands suggests a failure and healing cycle time that supports the observed LP seismicity repeat times. However, due to the paucity of data and large parameter space available these results can only be considered to be qualitative rather than quantitative at this stage.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Image calibration to like-values in mapping shallow water quality from multitemporal data

The applicability of image calibration to like-values in mapping water quality parameters from multitemporal images is explored, Six sets of water samples were collected at satellite overpasses over Moreton Bay, Brisbane, Australia. Analysis of these samples reveals that waters in this shallow bay are mostly TSS-dominated, even though they are occasionally dominated by chlorophyll as well. Three of the images were calibrated to a reference image based on invariant targets. Predictive models constructed from the reference image were applied to estimating total suspended sediment (TSS) and Secchi depth from another image at a discrepancy of around 35 percent. Application of the predictive model for TSS concentration to another image acquired at a time of different water types resulted in a discrepancy of 152 percent. Therefore, image calibration to like-values could be used to reliably map certain water quality parameters from multitemporal TM images so long as the water type under study remains unchanged. This method is limited in that the mapped results could be rather inaccurate if the water type under study has changed considerably. Thus, the approach needs to be refined in shallow water from multitemporal satellite imagery.