Using Bird Distributions to Assess Extinction Risk and Identify Conservation Priorities in Biodiversity Hotspots

Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.

Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.

In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.

In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.

For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.

Setting the agenda for dental education in Scotland: a priority setting exercise including multiple stakehiolders

Introduction The Scottish Oral Health Research Collaboration identified dental education research (DER) as a key strand of their strategy,(1) leading to the formation of the Dental Education Research Group. The starting point for this group was to understand various stakeholders’ perceptions of research priorities, yet no existing studies were found. The aim of the current study was to identify DER priorities for Scotland in the next 3-5 years. Methods The study utilised a similar methodology to that of Dennis et al,(2) in medical education. Data were collected sequentially using two online questionnaires with multiple dental stakeholders represented at undergraduate and postgraduate levels across urban and rural Scotland. 85 participants completed questionnaire 1 (qualitative) and 649 participants completed questionnaire 2 (quantitative). Qualitative and quantitative data analysis approaches were used. Results Of the 24 priorities identified, the top priorities were: role of assessments in identifying competence; undergraduate curriculum prepares for practice; and promoting teamwork within the dental team. Following factor analysis, the priorities loaded on four factors: teamwork and professionalism, measuring and enhancing performance, personal and professional development challenges, and curriculum integration and innovation. The top barriers were lack of time, funding, staff motivation, valuing of DER, and resources/ infrastructure. Discussion There were many similarities between the identified priorities for dental and medical education research2, but also some notable differences, which will be discussed. Overwhelmingly, the identified priorities in dentistry related to fitness for practice and robust assessment practices. Take home message Priority setting exercises with multiple stakeholders are an important first step in developing a national research strategy. References 1. Bagg J, Macpherson L, Mossey P, Rennie J, Saunders B, Taylor M (2010) Strategy for Oral Health Research in Scotland. Edinburgh: The Scottish Government. 2. Dennis A A, Cleland J A, Johnston P, Ker JS, Lough, M Rees CE (2014) Exploring stakeholders’ views of medical education research priorities: a national study. Medical Education, 48(11): 1078-1091.

The STRATIFY tool and clinical judgment were poor predictors of falling in an acute hospital setting

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of the STRATIFY falls tool with nurses’ clinical judgments in predicting patient falls. Study Design and Setting: A prospective cohort study was conducted among the inpatients of an acute tertiary hospital. Participants were patients over 65 years of age admitted to any hospital unit. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of the instrument and nurses’ clinical judgments in predicting falls were calculated. Results: Seven hundred and eighty-eight patients were screened and followed up during the study period. The fall prevalence was 9.2%. Of the 335 patients classified as being ‘‘at risk’’ for falling using the STRATIFY tool, 59 (17.6%) did sustain a fall (sensitivity50.82, specificity50.61, PPV50.18, NPV50.97). Nurses judged that 501 patients were at risk of falling and, of these, 60 (12.0%) fell (sensitivity50.84, specificity50.38, PPV50.12, NPV50.96). The STRATIFY tool correctly identified significantly more patients as either fallers or nonfallers than the nurses (P50.027). Conclusion: Considering the poor specificity and high rates of false-positive results for both the STRATIFY tool and nurses’ clinical judgments, we conclude that neither of these approaches are useful for screening of falls in acute hospital settings.

Strong designated verifier signature in a multi-user setting

The security of strong designated verifier (SDV) signature schemes has thus far been analyzed only in a two-user setting. We observe that security in a two-user setting does not necessarily imply the same in a multi-user setting for SDV signatures. Moreover, we show that existing security notions do not adequately model the security of SDV signatures even in a two-user setting. We then propose revised notions of security in a multi-user setting and show that no existing scheme satisfies these notions. A new SDV signature scheme is then presented and proven secure under the revised notions in the standard model. For the purpose of constructing the SDV signature scheme, we propose a one-pass key establishment protocol in the standard model, which is of independent interest in itself.

The use of online counselling within an Australian secondary school setting: a practitioner’s viewpoint

This paper proposes that the provision of online counselling services for young people accessed through their local school website has the potential to assist students with mental health issues as well as increasing their help seeking behaviours. It stems from the work of the authors who trialled an online counselling service within one Australian secondary school. In Australia, online counselling with the adult population is now an accepted part of the provision of mental health services. Online provision of mental health information for young people is also well accepted. However, online counselling for young people is provided by only a few community organisations such as Kids Help Line within Australia. School based counselling services which are integral to most secondary schools in Australia, seem slow to provide this service in spite of initial interest and enthusiasm by individual school counsellors. This discussion is the product of reflection on the potential benefits of this trial with a consideration of relevant research of the issues raised. It highlights the need for further research into the use of computer mediated communication in the provision of counselling within a school setting.

The S.T.A.B. Trial - Standardised Testing of Artificial Blood. A comparative study of various products that may be used as artificial blood for high fidelity simulation training in the critical care setting

Aim: In the current climate of medical education, there is an ever-increasing demand for and emphasis on simulation as both a teaching and training tool. The objective of our study was to compare the realism and practicality of a number of artificial blood products that could be used for high-fidelity simulation. Method: A literature and internet search was performed and 15 artificial blood products were identified from a variety of sources. One product was excluded due to its potential toxicity risks. Five observers, blinded to the products, performed two assessments on each product using an evaluation tool with 14 predefined criteria including color, consistency, clotting, and staining potential to manikin skin and clothing. Each criterion was rated using a five-point Likert scale. The products were left for 24 hours, both refrigerated and at room temperature, and then reassessed. Statistical analysis was performed to identify the most suitable products, and both inter- and intra-rater variability were examined. Results: Three products scored consistently well with all five assessors, with one product in particular scoring well in almost every criterion. This highest-rated product had a mean rating of 3.6 of 5.0 (95% posterior Interval 3.4-3.7). Inter-rater variability was minor with average ratings varying from 3.0 to 3.4 between the highest and lowest scorer. Intrarater variability was negligible with good agreement between first and second rating as per weighted kappa scores (K = 0.67). Conclusion: The most realistic and practical form of artificial blood identified was a commercial product called KD151 Flowing Blood Syrup. It was found to be not only realistic in appearance but practical in terms of storage and stain removal.

Identifying influences of driving behaviour : could the Australian work driving setting be unique?

Work-related driving safety is an emerging concern for Australian and overseas organisations. An in depth investigation was undertaken into a group of fleet drivers’ attitudes regarding what personal and environment factors have the greatest impact upon driving behaviours. A number of new and unique factors not previously identified were found including: vehicle features, vehicle ownership, road conditions, weather, etc. The major findings of the study are discussed in regards to practical solutions to improve fleet safety.

Designing self sustaining support for micro-enterprises in sub-Saharan Africa : a pilot

Small and micro-enterprises play a significant part in most economies. However, in developing countries these enterprises have often been planned and implemented from a poverty alleviation perspective, rather than as entrepreneurial activities and growing businesses (Mead & Liedholm 1998, Toye 1993). This paper explores a model for sustainable support to micro-enterprises in a developing country context. Sustainability is critical if micro-enterprises are to grow. The traditional philanthropic model for funding micro-enterprises leaves local communities dependent on the priorities of donors which may not always be consistent with those of the community. Long term sustainability requires a move to a model that broadens the base of both economic and intellectual resources, that builds capacity as well as providing ‘start-up’ funding through mechanism such as micro-credit (Elkington & Hartigan 2008). Designing for sustainable enterprise development includes responding to the community’s priorities, investigating individual problems and solutions, encouraging agency and active involvement in goal setting, with on-going consultation and co-development of solutions. Recognising the importance of experimentation we have moved beyond existing forms to prototype new ways of working which provide continuity of financial and intellectual support for local initiatives. The paper reviews existing micro finance and microcredit practices and suggests a new approach to establish and support enterprises with financial and knowledge resources for sustainable business practices. Principles underlying such a program and the initial steps are described.

Challenges faced by general practitioners and allied mental health services in providing mental health services in rural Queensland

Objective: To examine the views of rural practitioners concerning issues and challenges in mental health service delivery and possible solutions. Design: A qualitative study using individual semi-structured interviews. Setting: Eight general practices from eight rural Queensland towns, three rural mental health services and two non-government organisations, with interviews being conducted before recent changes in government-subsidised access to allied health practitioners. Participants: A sample of 37 GPs, 19 Queensland Health mental health staff and 18 participants from community organisations. Main outcome measures: Analysis of qualitative themes from questions about the key mental health issues facing the town, bow they might be addressed and what challenges would be faced in addressing them. Results: There was substantial consensus that there are significant problems with inter-service communication and liaison, and that improved collaboration and shared care will form a critical part of any effective solution. Differences between groups reflected differing organisational contexts and priorities, and limitations to the understanding each had of the challenges that other groups were facing. C onclusions: Improvements to mental health staffing and to access to allied health might increase the ability of GPs to meet the needs of less complex patients, but specific strategies to promote better integrated services are required to address the needs of rural and regional patients with complex mental health problems. The current study provides a baseline against which effects of recent initiatives to improve mental health care can be assessed.

Illegal pedestrian crossing at signalised intersections : Incidence and relative risk

Illegal pedestrian behaviour is common and is reported as a factor in many pedestrian crashes. Since walking is being promoted for its health and environmental benefits, minimisation of its associated risks is of interest. The risk associated with illegal road crossing is unclear, and better information would assist in setting a rationale for enforcement and priorities for public education. An observation survey of pedestrian behaviour was conducted at signalised intersections in the Brisbane CBD (Queensland, Australia) on typical workdays, using behavioural categories that were identifiable in police crash reports. The survey confirmed high levels of crossing against the lights, or close enough to the lights that they should legally have been used. Measures of exposure for crossing legally, against the lights, and close to the lights were generated by weighting the observation data. Relative risk ratios were calculated for these categories using crash data from the observation sites and adjacent midblocks. Crossing against the lights and crossing close to the lights both exhibited a crash risk per crossing event approximately eight times that of legal crossing at signalised intersections. The implications of these results for enforcement and education are discussed, along with the limitations of the study.