The allometry of non-employment. What can compositional data analysis tell us about labour market performance across the UK's regions?

The low levels of unemployment recorded in the UK in recent years are widely cited asevidence of the country’s improved economic performance, and the apparent convergence of unemployment rates across the country’s regions used to suggest that the longstanding divide in living standards between the relatively prosperous ‘south’ and the more depressed ‘north’ has been substantially narrowed. Dissenters from theseconclusions have drawn attention to the greatly increased extent of non-employment(around a quarter of the UK’s working age population are not in employment) and themarked regional dimension in its distribution across the country. Amongst these dissenters it is generally agreed that non-employment is concentrated amongst oldermales previously employed in the now very much smaller ‘heavy’ industries (e.g. coal,steel, shipbuilding).This paper uses the tools of compositiona l data analysis to provide a much richer picture of non-employment and one which challenges the conventional analysis wisdom about UK labour market performance as well as the dissenters view of the nature of theproblem. It is shown that, associated with the striking ‘north/south’ divide in nonemployment rates, there is a statistically significant relationship between the size of the non-employment rate and the composition of non-employment. Specifically, it is shown that the share of unemployment in non-employment is negatively correlated with the overall non-employment rate: in regions where the non-employment rate is high the share of unemployment is relatively low. So the unemployment rate is not a very reliable indicator of regional disparities in labour market performance. Even more importantly from a policy viewpoint, a significant positive relationship is found between the size ofthe non-employment rate and the share of those not employed through reason of sicknessor disability and it seems (contrary to the dissenters) that this connection is just as strong for women as it is for men

On the use of principal components in contemporany population genetics: a case study

In human Population Genetics, routine applications of principal component techniques are oftenrequired. Population biologists make widespread use of certain discrete classifications of humansamples into haplotypes, the monophyletic units of phylogenetic trees constructed from severalsingle nucleotide bimorphisms hierarchically ordered. Compositional frequencies of the haplotypesare recorded within the different samples. Principal component techniques are then required as adimension-reducing strategy to bring the dimension of the problem to a manageable level, say two,to allow for graphical analysis.Population biologists at large are not aware of the special features of compositional data and normally make use of the crude covariance of compositional relative frequencies to construct principalcomponents. In this short note we present our experience with using traditional linear principalcomponents or compositional principal components based on logratios, with reference to a specificdataset

The agreement between ipsative and normative questionnaires using compositional data analysis techniques

The main instrument used in psychological measurement is the self-report questionnaire. One of its majordrawbacks however is its susceptibility to response biases. A known strategy to control these biases hasbeen the use of so-called ipsative items. Ipsative items are items that require the respondent to makebetween-scale comparisons within each item. The selected option determines to which scale the weight ofthe answer is attributed. Consequently in questionnaires only consisting of ipsative items everyrespondent is allotted an equal amount, i.e. the total score, that each can distribute differently over thescales. Therefore this type of response format yields data that can be considered compositional from itsinception.Methodological oriented psychologists have heavily criticized this type of item format, since the resultingdata is also marked by the associated unfavourable statistical properties. Nevertheless, clinicians havekept using these questionnaires to their satisfaction. This investigation therefore aims to evaluate bothpositions and addresses the similarities and differences between the two data collection methods. Theultimate objective is to formulate a guideline when to use which type of item format.The comparison is based on data obtained with both an ipsative and normative version of threepsychological questionnaires, which were administered to 502 first-year students in psychology accordingto a balanced within-subjects design. Previous research only compared the direct ipsative scale scoreswith the derived ipsative scale scores. The use of compositional data analysis techniques also enables oneto compare derived normative score ratios with direct normative score ratios. The addition of the secondcomparison not only offers the advantage of a better-balanced research strategy. In principle it also allowsfor parametric testing in the evaluation

A compositional statistical analysis of capital stock

Most of economic literature has presented its analysis under the assumption of homogeneous capital stock.However, capital composition differs across countries. What has been the pattern of capital compositionassociated with World economies? We make an exploratory statistical analysis based on compositional datatransformed by Aitchinson logratio transformations and we use tools for visualizing and measuring statisticalestimators of association among the components. The goal is to detect distinctive patterns in the composition.As initial findings could be cited that:1. Sectorial components behaved in a correlated way, building industries on one side and , in a lessclear view, equipment industries on the other.2. Full sample estimation shows a negative correlation between durable goods component andother buildings component and between transportation and building industries components.3. Countries with zeros in some components are mainly low income countries at the bottom of theincome category and behaved in a extreme way distorting main results observed in the fullsample.4. After removing these extreme cases, conclusions seem not very sensitive to the presence ofanother isolated cases

Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

Inference of distributional parameters from compositional samples containing nondetects

Low concentrations of elements in geochemical analyses have the peculiarity of beingcompositional data and, for a given level of significance, are likely to be beyond thecapabilities of laboratories to distinguish between minute concentrations and completeabsence, thus preventing laboratories from reporting extremely low concentrations of theanalyte. Instead, what is reported is the detection limit, which is the minimumconcentration that conclusively differentiates between presence and absence of theelement. A spatially distributed exhaustive sample is employed in this study to generateunbiased sub-samples, which are further censored to observe the effect that differentdetection limits and sample sizes have on the inference of population distributionsstarting from geochemical analyses having specimens below detection limit (nondetects).The isometric logratio transformation is used to convert the compositional data in thesimplex to samples in real space, thus allowing the practitioner to properly borrow fromthe large source of statistical techniques valid only in real space. The bootstrap method isused to numerically investigate the reliability of inferring several distributionalparameters employing different forms of imputation for the censored data. The casestudy illustrates that, in general, best results are obtained when imputations are madeusing the distribution best fitting the readings above detection limit and exposes theproblems of other more widely used practices. When the sample is spatially correlated, itis necessary to combine the bootstrap with stochastic simulation

GNSS signal detection based on first-order absolute statistics

Aquest projecte es centra principalment en el detector no coherent d’un GPS. Per tal de caracteritzar el procés de detecció d’un receptor, es necessita conèixer l’estadística implicada. Pel cas dels detectors no coherents convencionals, l’estadística de segon ordre intervé plenament. Les prestacions que ens dóna l’estadística de segon ordre, plasmada en la ROC, són prou bons tot i que en diferents situacions poden no ser els millors. Aquest projecte intenta reproduir el procés de detecció mitjançant l’estadística de primer ordre com a alternativa a la ja coneguda i implementada estadística de segon ordre. Per tal d’aconseguir-ho, s’usen expressions basades en el Teorema Central del Límit i de les sèries Edgeworth com a bones aproximacions. Finalment, tant l’estadística convencional com l’estadística proposada són comparades, en termes de la ROC, per tal de determinar quin detector no coherent ofereix millor prestacions en cada situació.

Estimating Gross Value Added (GVA) across multiple scales: theoretical approach and empirical validation

This paper presents an application of the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach to the estimation of quantities of Gross Value Added (GVA) referring to economic entities defined at different scales of study. The method first estimates benchmark values of the pace of GVA generation per hour of labour across economic sectors. These values are estimated as intensive variables –e.g. €/hour– by dividing the various sectorial GVA of the country (expressed in € per year) by the hours of paid work in that same sector per year. This assessment is obtained using data referring to national statistics (top down information referring to the national level). Then, the approach uses bottom-up information (the number of hours of paid work in the various economic sectors of an economic entity –e.g. a city or a province– operating within the country) to estimate the amount of GVA produced by that entity. This estimate is obtained by multiplying the number of hours of work in each sector in the economic entity by the benchmark value of GVA generation per hour of work of that particular sector (national average). This method is applied and tested on two different socio-economic systems: (i) Catalonia (considered level n) and Barcelona (considered level n-1); and (ii) the region of Lima (considered level n) and Lima Metropolitan Area (considered level n-1). In both cases, the GVA per year of the local economic entity –Barcelona and Lima Metropolitan Area – is estimated and the resulting value is compared with GVA data provided by statistical offices. The empirical analysis seems to validate the approach, even though the case of Lima Metropolitan Area indicates a need for additional care when dealing with the estimate of GVA in primary sectors (agriculture and mining).

Major-elements trends in cenozoic volcanites of Hungary

Hungary lies entirely within the Carpatho-Pannonian Region (CPR), a dominant tectonic unit of eastern Central Europe. The CPR consists of the Pannonian Basin system, and the arc of the Carpathian Mountains surrounding the lowlands in the north, east, and southeast. In the west, the CPR is bounded by the Eastern Alps, whereas in the south, by the Dinaridic belt. (...)

CODAMAT: a modern analogue techinque for compositional data

The quantitative estimation of Sea Surface Temperatures from fossils assemblages is afundamental issue in palaeoclimatic and paleooceanographic investigations. TheModern Analogue Technique, a widely adopted method based on direct comparison offossil assemblages with modern coretop samples, was revised with the aim ofconforming it to compositional data analysis. The new CODAMAT method wasdeveloped by adopting the Aitchison metric as distance measure. Modern coretopdatasets are characterised by a large amount of zeros. The zero replacement was carriedout by adopting a Bayesian approach to the zero replacement, based on a posteriorestimation of the parameter of the multinomial distribution. The number of modernanalogues from which reconstructing the SST was determined by means of a multipleapproach by considering the Proxies correlation matrix, Standardized Residual Sum ofSquares and Mean Squared Distance. This new CODAMAT method was applied to theplanktonic foraminiferal assemblages of a core recovered in the Tyrrhenian Sea.Kew words: Modern analogues, Aitchison distance, Proxies correlation matrix,Standardized Residual Sum of Squares

Studies in stoichiometry with compositional data

Geochemical data that is derived from the whole or partial analysis of various geologic materialsrepresent a composition of mineralogies or solute species. Minerals are composed of structuredrelationships between cations and anions which, through atomic and molecular forces, keep the elementsbound in specific configurations. The chemical compositions of minerals have specific relationships thatare governed by these molecular controls. In the case of olivine, there is a well-defined relationshipbetween Mn-Fe-Mg with Si. Balances between the principal elements defining olivine composition andother significant constituents in the composition (Al, Ti) have been defined, resulting in a near-linearrelationship between the logarithmic relative proportion of Si versus (MgMnFe) and Mg versus (MnFe),which is typically described but poorly illustrated in the simplex.The present contribution corresponds to ongoing research, which attempts to relate stoichiometry andgeochemical data using compositional geometry. We describe here the approach by which stoichiometricrelationships based on mineralogical constraints can be accounted for in the space of simplicialcoordinates using olivines as an example. Further examples for other mineral types (plagioclases andmore complex minerals such as clays) are needed. Issues that remain to be dealt with include thereduction of a bulk chemical composition of a rock comprised of several minerals from which appropriatebalances can be used to describe the composition in a realistic mineralogical framework. The overallobjective of our research is to answer the question: In the cases where the mineralogy is unknown, arethere suitable proxies that can be substituted?Kew words: Aitchison geometry, balances, mineral composition, oxides

An alternative method for dating unknown tephras based on a segmented regression model

In CoDaWork’05, we presented an application of discriminant function analysis (DFA) to 4 differentcompositional datasets and modelled the first canonical variable using a segmented regression modelsolely based on an observation about the scatter plots. In this paper, multiple linear regressions areapplied to different datasets to confirm the validity of our proposed model. In addition to dating theunknown tephras by calibration as discussed previously, another method of mapping the unknown tephrasinto samples of the reference set or missing samples in between consecutive reference samples isproposed. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated with both simulated and real datasets.This new proposed methodology provides an alternative, more acceptable approach for geologists as theirfocus is on mapping the unknown tephra with relevant eruptive events rather than estimating the age ofunknown tephra.Kew words: Tephrochronology; Segmented regression

Monitoring procedures in environmental geochemistry and compositional data analysis theory

First discussion on compositional data analysis is attributable to Karl Pearson, in 1897. However, notwithstanding the recent developments on algebraic structure of the simplex, more than twenty years after Aitchison’s idea of log-transformations of closed data, scientific literature is again full of statistical treatments of this type of data by using traditional methodologies. This is particularly true in environmental geochemistry where besides the problem of the closure, the spatial structure (dependence) of the data have to be considered. In this work we propose the use of log-contrast values, obtained by asimplicial principal component analysis, as LQGLFDWRUV of given environmental conditions. The investigation of the log-constrast frequency distributions allows pointing out the statistical laws able togenerate the values and to govern their variability. The changes, if compared, for example, with the mean values of the random variables assumed as models, or other reference parameters, allow definingmonitors to be used to assess the extent of possible environmental contamination. Case study on running and ground waters from Chiavenna Valley (Northern Italy) by using Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3-, SO4 2- and Cl- concentrations will be illustrated

Statistical evidences of cyclic changes in volcanic gas chemistry composition by inverse modelling

The identification of compositional changes in fumarolic gases of active and quiescent volcanoes is one of the mostimportant targets in monitoring programs. From a general point of view, many systematic (often cyclic) and randomprocesses control the chemistry of gas discharges, making difficult to produce a convincing mathematical-statisticalmodelling.Changes in the chemical composition of volcanic gases sampled at Vulcano Island (Aeolian Arc, Sicily, Italy) fromeight different fumaroles located in the northern sector of the summit crater (La Fossa) have been analysed byconsidering their dependence from time in the period 2000-2007. Each intermediate chemical composition has beenconsidered as potentially derived from the contribution of the two temporal extremes represented by the 2000 and 2007samples, respectively, by using inverse modelling methodologies for compositional data. Data pertaining to fumarolesF5 and F27, located on the rim and in the inner part of La Fossa crater, respectively, have been used to achieve theproposed aim. The statistical approach has allowed us to highlight the presence of random and not random fluctuations,features useful to understand how the volcanic system works, opening new perspectives in sampling strategies and inthe evaluation of the natural risk related to a quiescent volcano

Elemental analysis of New Zealand Nephrite Jade (pounamu) for forensic purposes

Pounamu (NZ jade), or nephrite, is a protected mineral in its natural form following thetransfer of ownership back to Ngai Tahu under the Ngai Tahu (Pounamu Vesting) Act 1997.Any theft of nephrite is prosecutable under the Crimes Act 1961. Scientific evidence isessential in cases where origin is disputed. A robust method for discrimination of thismaterial through the use of elemental analysis and compositional data analysis is required.Initial studies have characterised the variability within a given nephrite source. This hasincluded investigation of both in situ outcrops and alluvial material. Methods for thediscrimination of two geographically close nephrite sources are being developed.Key Words: forensic, jade, nephrite, laser ablation, inductively coupled plasma massspectrometry, multivariate analysis, elemental analysis, compositional data analysis