Possible consequences of increasing life expectancy in Brazil: the perspective of a European historical demographer

Those over sixty years of age accounted for 6.6% of the total population of Brazil in 1985, in the Federal Republic of Germany this proportion was 20.3% in 1984. As early as 1950 it had been 14.5%. This proportion will not even be reached in Brazil in the year 2000 when persons aged sixty years and older are only projected to make up 8.8% of the total population. Similarly, in 1982/84 life expectancy at birth in the Federal Republic was 70.8 years for men and 77.5 for women; in Brazil the figures for 1980/85 were, by contrast, "only" 61.0 and 66.0. Against this background it is easy to understand why the discussion concerning an ageing society with its many related medical, economic, individual and social problems has been so slow in coming into its own in Brazil. As important as a more intensive consideration of these aspects may be in Brazil at present, they are, nevertheless, only one side of the story. For a European historical demographer with a long-term perspective of three of four hundred years, the other side of the story is just as important. The life expectancy which is almost ten years lower in Brazil is not a result of the fact that no one in Brazil lives to old age. In 1981 people sixty-five years and older accounted for 34.4% of all deaths! At the same time infants accounted for only 22.1% of total mortality. They are responsible, along with the "premature" deaths among youths and adults, for the low, "average" life expectancy figure. In Europe, by contrast, these "premature" deaths no longer play much of a role. In 1982/84 more than half of the women (52.8%) in the Federal Republic of Germany lived to see their eightieth birthdays and almost half of the men (47.3%) lived to see their seventy-fifth. Our biological existence is guaranteed to an extent today that would have been unthinkable a few generations ago. Then, the classic troika of "plague, hunger and war" threatened our forefathers all the time and everywhere. The radical transition from the formerly uncertain to a present-day certain lifetime, which is the result of the repression of "plague, hunger and war", led to unexpected consequences for our living together. Our forefathers were forced to live in closely knit Gemeinschaften in the interest of physical survival and to subordinate their egoistic goals to a common value, but now these pressures have, for the most part, fallen away. Correspondingly, this much more certain EGO has taken center stage. An ever greater number of us chooses to live life as single beings: the number of marriages is lower every year; the number of divorces is on the increase; in Berlin (West) more than half (sic! 52.3%) of all households are already composed on only one person. For the last dozen years the annual number of births in the Federal Republic has been insufficient to ensure population replacement. Not a population explosion but rather the opposite, a population implosion, is our problem. Human beings do not appear to be "social animals", as was axiomatically assumed for so long. They were only forced to behave as such for as long as "plague, hunger and war" forced them to do so. When these life endangering conditions no longer exist and life becomes certain even without their being integrated into a Gemeinschaft then humans suddenly show themselves more and more to be independent single beings. It is not the percentage of the population that is over sixty or sixty-five that is decisive in this context but rather how certain adults perceive their biological lives to be, since they are the ones who organize their lives, who build communities or who are ever more often willing only to enter into means-to-an-end personal unions without lasting or close ties and mutual responsibilities. There are many signs which seem to point to a development in this direction in Brazil as well. More and more adults in Brazil are caught up in the deep-seated transition from an uncertain to a certain lifetime. A third of them die after having reached their sixty-fifth birthday. It therefore seems to me to be high time that one began to give more consideration to the other side of the story in Brazil as well. And who is more suited intensively to consider the long-term perspectives than those engaged in the public health sector in whose competence, after all, such aspects, as "life certainty", "life expectancy" and "age at death" belong?

Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

Spanish pension system: population aging and immigration policy

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029

Malthusian dynamism and the rise of Europe: Make war, not love

This paper argues that Malthusian regimes are capable of sustained changes in per capita incomes. Shifting mortality and fertility schedules can lead to different steady-state income levels, with long periods of growth during the transition. Europe checked the downward pressure on wages through late marriage, which reduced fertility, and a mortality regime that combined high death rates with high incomes. We argue that both emerged as a result of the Black Death.

Thermodynamic investigations in the Si-Ge-rich part of the ruthenium-silicon-germanium system

This paper reports molar heat capacities of Ru50SixGe(50-x) and Ru40SiyGe(60-y) ternary solid solutions determined by differential scanning calorimetry. A second order transition has been characterised for alloys ranging from Ru40Ge60 to Ru40Si10Ge50 at temperatures ranging from 850 to 1040 K, respectively. Tie lines have been established at 1000-900-800-700-600 degrees C by electron microprobe measurements on annealed alloys of the two phase domains: Ru50SixGe(50-x)-Ru40SiyGe(60-y) and Ru40SiyGe(60-y)-SizGe(100-z).

The co-evolution of social institutions, demography, and large-scale human cooperation.

Human cooperation is typically coordinated by institutions, which determine the outcome structure of the social interactions individuals engage in. Explaining the Neolithic transition from small- to large-scale societies involves understanding how these institutions co-evolve with demography. We study this using a demographically explicit model of institution formation in a patch-structured population. Each patch supports both social and asocial niches. Social individuals create an institution, at a cost to themselves, by negotiating how much of the costly public good provided by cooperators is invested into sanctioning defectors. The remainder of their public good is invested in technology that increases carrying capacity, such as irrigation systems. We show that social individuals can invade a population of asocials, and form institutions that support high levels of cooperation. We then demonstrate conditions where the co-evolution of cooperation, institutions, and demographic carrying capacity creates a transition from small- to large-scale social groups.

Salud y crecimiento económico: un modelo de generaciones traslapadas, expectativa de vida endógena y capital humano

Este trabajo desarrolla un modelo de generaciones traslapadas con expectativa de vida endógena y capital humano. Recoge parte de la evidencia empírica acerca de la transición demográfica explicada por Notestein en 1945, donde variaciones en la longevidad de los individuos afectan positivamente el crecimiento económico de un país. El modelo establece que la falta de incentivos para invertir en salud estanca a una economía en una trampa de pobreza y muestra que incrementos en la productividad en el sector de producción de capital humano, al igual que cambios tecnológicos sesgados al uso intensivo del mismo, incrementan el producto de estado estacionario y pueden sacar a una economía de una trampa de pobreza.

WRITING ELECTRONIC FERROMAGNETIC STATES IN A HIGH-TEMPERATURE PARAMAGNETIC NUCLEAR SPIN SYSTEM

In this paper, we use Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) to write electronic states of a ferromagnetic system into high-temperature paramagnetic nuclear spins. Through the control of phase and duration of radio frequency pulses, we set the NMR density matrix populations, and apply the technique of quantum state tomography to experimentally obtain the matrix elements of the system, from which we calculate the temperature dependence of magnetization for different magnetic fields. The effects of the variation of temperature and magnetic field over the populations can be mapped in the angles of spin rotations, carried out by the RF pulses. The experimental results are compared to the Brillouin functions of ferromagnetic ordered systems in the mean field approximation for two cases: the mean field is given by (i) B = B(0) + lambda M and (ii) B = B(0) + lambda M + lambda`M(3), where B(0) is the external magnetic field, and lambda, lambda` are mean field parameters. The first case exhibits second order transition, whereas the second case has first order transition with temperature hysteresis. The NMR simulations are in good agreement with the magnetic predictions.

A Previdência Social Brasileira após a transição demográfica: simulações de propostas de reforma

É consenso que as tendências demográficas de longo prazo estão por trás da deterioração das contas previdenciárias na grande maioria dos países do globo. O problema se agrava no Brasil, pois a informalidade do mercado de trabalho exclui milhões de potenciais contribuintes do regime de repartição. O trabalho mensura, através de simulações de um modelo de longo prazo, qual o impacto fiscal das mudanças introduzidas pela transição demográfica. E, admitindo a persistência dessa nova estrutura etária no país, simula quais propostas de reforma da previdência têm maior resultado na redução dos déficits atualmente registrados no INSS. Dentre as principais conclusões estão: (i) a transição demográfica sozinha é responsável por quase dobrar a alíquota previdenciária necessária para equilibrar o sistema, e; (ii) apesar de ser extremamente importante aprovar as propostas de reforma tradicionais (instituição de idade mínima, taxação dos inativos e mudanças nas regras de cálculo dos benefícios), aumentar a cobertura do regime de repartição através da inclusão dos aproximadamente 45 milhões de trabalhadores informais não-contribuintes reduz déficits em magnitude semelhante.

Activation of Ca2+-independent membrane-damaging activity in Lys49-phospholipase A(2) promoted by amphiphilic molecules

Association of class-II phospholipase A(2) (PLA(2)) with aggregated phospholipid substrate results in elevated levels of the Ca2+-dependent hydrolytic activity. The Asp49 residue participates in coordination of the Ca2+ ion cofactor, however, in Lys49-PLA(2) homologues (Lys49-PLA(2)S), substitution of the Asp49 by Lys results in loss of Ca2+ binding and lack of detectable phospholipid hydrolysis. Nevertheless, Lys49-PLA2S cause Ca2+-independent damage of liposome membranes. Bothropstoxin-I is a homodimeric Lys49-PLA(2) from the venom of Bothrops jararacussu, and in fluorescent marker release and dynamic light scattering experiments with DPPC liposomes we demonstrate activation of the Ca2+-independent membrane damaging activity by similar to4 molecules of sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) per protein monomer. Activation is accomparlied by significant changes in the intrinsic tryptophan fluorescence emission (ITFE) and near UV circular dichroism (UVCD) spectra of the protein. Subsequent binding of 7-10 SDS molecules results in further alterations in the ITFE and far UVCD spectra. Reduction in the rate of N-bromosuccinimide modification of Trp77 at the dimer interface suggests that initial binding of SDS to this region accompanies the activation of the membrane damaging activity. 1-anilinonaphthalene-8-sulphonic acid binding studies indicate that subsequent SDS binding to the active site is concomitant with the second structural transition. These results provide insights in the structural basis of amphiphile/protein coupling in class-II PLA(2)s. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A saúde bucal do idoso brasileiro: revisão sistemática sobre o quadro epidemiológico e acesso aos serviços de saúde bucal

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efeito da capacitação dos cuidadores informais sobre a qualidade de vida de idosos com déficit de autocuidado

A proporção de idosos no Brasil vem crescendo consideravelmente e essa transição demográfica traz um quadro em que cada vez mais a sobrevivência deles fica dependente de seus familiares. Para aprimorar a qualidade de vida desse grupo há a proposta da elaboração de um programa de capacitação que contribua para melhorar os serviços prestados a estes indivíduos. O objetivo do presente estudo é avaliar um Programa de Capacitação para Cuidadores Informais na qualidade de vida de idosos. Foram realizadas visitas às residências de 15 idosos com déficit de autocuidado, onde foi aplicado o questionário SF-36. em seguida realizou-se um programa multiprofissional de capacitação para seus cuidadores. Após 2 meses aplicou-se novamente o questionário para verificar a eficácia do programa de capacitação na qualidade de vida dos idosos. Houve um aumento significativo dos escores relacionados ao domínio saúde mental e uma diminuição significativa dos relacionados às limitações por aspectos físicos. A partir dos dados obtidos concluiu-se que deve ser incentivada a formação de grupos de cuidadores informais, conduzidos por profissionais da área de saúde, para fomentar o conhecimento, a troca de experiências e a discussão sobre estratégias para melhorar o ato de cuidar.

Macroscopic quantum tunneling in a dc SQUID: Instanton splitting

The theory of macroscopic quantum tunneling is applied to a current-biased dc SQUID which constitutes a system of two interacting quantum degrees of freedom coupled to the environment. The decay probability is obtained in the exponential approximation for the overdamped case. Close to the critical driving force of the system, the decay of the metastable state is determined by a unique instanton solution describing the symmetric decay of the phases in each of the two Josephson juctions. Upon reducing the external driving force a new regime is reached where the instanton splits. The doubling of the decay channels reduces the decreasing of the decay rate in the quantum regime. A current-temperature phase diagram is constructed based on the Landau theory of phase transitions. Depending on the external parameters the system develops either a first- or a second-order transition to the split-instanton regime. © 1994 The American Physical Society.

Social Panorama of Latin America 2004

Includes bibliography

Social Panorama of Latin America 2005

Includes bibliography