Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Severity of banana leaf spot in an intercropping system in two cycles of banana Prata Ana

Prata Ana is the most planted banana cultivar in northern Minas Gerais, Brazil. It is however susceptible to several pathogens. This study was carried out to evaluate the disease severity of banana leaf spot in the Prata Ana cv. in the first and second cycle under six different planting systems. The randomized block experimental design was used with six treatments and four replications. lit an evaluation of the severity of banana leaf spot, no disease symptoms were found on Thap Maeo and Caipira. The evolution curve of the disease indicated seasonal effects in the first and second cycles. The severity, of banana leaf spot was highest soon after the regional rainy period from November to March. A comparison of the means of the evaluations indicated a reduction in disease severity from the first to the second cycle.

Análise de séries temporais de coordenadas estimadas com GPS: uma proposta metodológica para detecção, remoção e recuperação de efeitos sazonais

GPS active networks are more and more used in geodetic surveying and scientific experiments, as water vapor monitoring in the atmosphere and lithosphere plate movement. Among the methods of GPS positioning, Precise Point Positioning (PPP) has provided very good results. A characteristic of PPP is related to the modeling and/or estimation of the errors involved in this method. The accuracy obtained for the coordinates can reach few millimeters. Seasonal effects can affect such accuracy if they are not consistent treated during the data processing. Coordinates time series analyses have been realized using Fourier or Harmonics spectral analyses, wavelets, least squares estimation among others. An approach is presented in this paper aiming to investigate the seasonal effects included in the stations coordinates time series. Experiments were carried out using data from stations Manaus (NAUS) and Fortaleza (BRFT) which belong to the Brazilian Continuous GPS Network (RBMC). The coordinates of these stations were estimated daily using PPP and were analyzed through wavelets for identification of the periods of the seasonal effects (annual and semi-annual) in each time series. These effects were removed by means of a filtering process applied in the series via the least squares adjustment (LSQ) of a periodic function. The results showed that the combination of these two mathematical tools, wavelets and LSQ, is an interesting and efficient technique for removal of seasonal effects in time series.

Controlling factors of benthic macroinvertebrates distribution in a small tropical pond, lateral to the Paranapanema River (São Paulo, Brazil).

The aim of the present study was to examine the benthic fauna in a marginal pond lateral to the Paranapanema River and to identify the main controlling factors of its distribution. Considering the small size of the lacustrine ecosystem, we expected that seasonal variations of the benthic community attributes are more important than spatial variations; Methods: Two samplings, one in March and another in August, were carried out at nine sites in the pond. Sediment samples were obtained through a Van Veen grab for invertebrate sorting, granulometric analysis, and for quantification of organic matter in sediment. Other abiotic factors were measured, such as water transparency, dissolved oxygen, pH, electric conductivity, temperature, and depth of sediment sampling sites. Regarding the comparative analysis at spatial scale, no significant variations in density of the benthic invertebrate community were found. Results: In relation to the studied abiotic factors, only depth presented significant differences among sampling sites; All the measured environmental parameters presented significant differences among sampling months, except depth and the physical and chemical characteristics of the sediment. The abundance of Chaoboridae and Chironomidae was the unique attribute with a significant difference in comparing the two months. A higher abundance of taxa occurred in August, especially for Oligochaeta, Nematoda, Chaoboridae, and Chironomidae; Conclusions: Because of the low structural complexity of the studied pond, we concluded that the changes in benthic macroinvertebrate community attributes were mainly due to seasonal effects.

Colonization of rocky and leaf pack substrates by benthic macroinvertebrates in a stream in southeast Brazil.

A comparative analysis was conducted of the colonization by benthic macroinvertebrates of rocky and leaf pack substrates, both natural and artificial. This colonization was evaluated by season, with the objective of ascertaining the influence of rainfall on the rate of colonization. The total density of macroinvertebrates after 21 days of colonization was significantly greater in the dry than in the wet season. When the substrate types were compared, artificial leaf pack substrate presented the smallest density for both seasons. In the wet season, Chironomidae, Leptohyphidae, Hydropsychidae, Elmidae, immature stages of Trichoptera, and Hydroptilidae showed a more representative density. In the dry season, Chironomidae, Baetidae and Oligochaeta were the most abundant taxa. The artificial rocky substrate used in this experiment was the most appropriate, due to its resemblance with natural substrate conditions in terms of the maintenance of the structural integrity of the substrate throughout the experimental period. Successional and seasonal effects were of great relevance, playing an important role in the colonization process.

Leaf gas exchange and fruit yield in sweet orange trees as affected by citrus variegated chlorosis and environmental conditions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Análise de séries temporais de coordenadas estimadas com gps: Uma proposta metodológica para detecção, remoção e recuperação de efeitos sazonais

GPS active networks are more and more used in geodetic surveying and scientific experiments, as water vapor monitoring in the atmosphere and lithosphere plate movement. Among the methods of GPS positioning, Precise Point Positioning (PPP) has provided very good results. A characteristic of PPP is related to the modeling and / or estimation of the errors involved in this method. The accuracy obtained for the coordinates can reach few millimeters. Seasonal effects can affect such accuracy if they are not consistent treated during the data processing. Coordinates time series analyses have been realized using Fourier or Harmonics spectral analyses, wavelets, least squares estimation among others. An approach is presented in this paper aiming to investigate the seasonal effects included in the stations coordinates time series. Experiments were carried out using data from stations Manaus (NAUS) and Fortaleza (BRFT) which belong to the Brazilian Continuous GPS Network (RBMC). The coordinates of these stations were estimated daily using PPP and were analyzed through wavelets for identification of the periods of the seasonal effects (annual and semi-annual) in each time series. These effects were removed by means of a filtering process applied in the series via the least squares adjustment (LSQ) of a periodic function. The results showed that the combination of these two mathematical tools, wavelets and LSQ, is an interesting and efficient technique for removal of seasonal effects in time series.

Análise de séries temporais de coordenadas estimadas com GPS: uma proposta metodológica para eliminação de efeitos sazonais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Efeitos do fogo recorrente na serrapilheira: consequências para artrópodes, decomposição e mineralização de carbono e nitrogênio em uma floresta de transição da Amazônia

Os artrópodes possuem uma importante função no ecossistema, pois participam da ciclagem de nutrientes, decomposição, trituração e mistura da serrapilheira. Os incêndios florestais, cada vez mais freqüentes na Amazônia, destroem a camada de serrapilheira e os artrópodes que nela vivem. O objetivo desta tese é investigar como o fogo recorrente atua sobre este processo, investigando a abundância e densidade de artrópodes de serrapilheira e as taxas de decomposição da matéria orgânica e a mineralização de C e N em uma floresta de transição da Amazônia no município de Querência, estado do Mato Grosso. Para tanto, uma parcela de 50 ha de floresta primária (500 x 1000 m) foi queimada experimentalmente a cada ano a partir de 2004, e outra área de mesmo tamanho foi mantida intacta para controle. Os artrópodes foram coletados aleatoriamente em 40 pontos distribuídos dentro da parcela, por meio de armadilhas de solo (“pitfalls”) e em 40 pontos sendo extraídos da serrapilhaira através de funis de Berlese. As coletas foram realizadas em fevereiro, abril (estação chuvosa), junho e agosto (estação seca) de 2007, após a terceira queima experimental anual. Os artrópodes foram analisados até o nível taxonômico de ordem e as formigas foram identificadas até gênero. O estudo de decomposição foi feito com 480 bolsas se serrapilheira distribuídas aleatoriamente, com 240 em cada parcela, quatro meses após a última queimada. As bolsas foram confeccionadas com malhas de nylon com aberturas de 2 mm (malha fina), e em metade delas foram feitos três orifícios de 1 cm² de cada lado, permitindo a entrada de macroartrópodes (malha grossa). Em cada bolsa foi inserido cerca de 10 g de folhas secas. A cada dois meses 30 bolsas de cada tipo de malha foi retirada de cada parcela, totalizando duas retiradas na estação seca e duas na estação chuvosa. As bolsas foram secas em estufa e pesadas novamente. A diferença entre peso seco inicial e final representou a taxa de decomposição. A cada retirada de um lote de bolsas de cada tipo de malha e de cada parcela, uma subamostra (10) destas bolsas foram selecionadas aleatoriamente para análises de análise de C e N das folhas. Os artrópodes apresentaram fortes diferenças sazonais. Na estação seca os colêmbolas ocorreram em menor abundância e as formigas ocorreram em maior abundância. Concomitantemente aos efeitos de sazonalidade, os artrópodes apresentaram diversas respostas ao fogo, com alguns grupos apresentando aumento e outros redução em abundância e densidade em diferentes datas pós-fogo, em comparação a floresta controle. Os ortópteros se destacaram por terem apresentado maior abundância em todas as datas pós-fogo em comparação a floresta controle. Em geral os macropredadores freduziram sua abundância e densidade após o fogo (formigas, besouros, dentre outros) e os engenheiros de ecossistema e decompositores foram mais abundantes (baratas, ácaros, dentre outros) em relação à floresta controle. As formigas também apresentaram diferenças entre as parcelas: maior diversidade e modificações na composição de gêneros durante a estação seca, pois o fogo favoreceu o aumento em abundância de formigas generalistas. As taxas de decomposição na parcela queimada foram menores do que na parcela controle, e as bolsas de malha fina com menores taxas de decomposição do que as bolsas de malha grossa. As taxas de C e N também foram diferentes entre as parcelas, e a razão C/N, na parcela queimada se manteve estável em todas as datas pós-fogo, enquanto na parcela controle houve declínio gradual durante o experimento seguindo as estações. Estes resultados indicam que o fogo modifica a fauna de serrapilheira, reduzindo diversas populações de artrópodes e modificando a composição deste grupo. As bolsas de malha fina indicam que a exclusão de macroartrópodes reduzem a taxa de decomposição da matéria orgânica e que os microartrópodes são mais prejudicados. O fogo também reduz o processo de mineralização de C e N já que a razão C/N se manteve estável na parcela queimada. Este estudo demonstra que o fogo recorrente tem forte efeito sobre artrópodes de serrapilheira e ciclagem de nutrientes em florestas de transição da Amazônia.

Reference Gene Selection for Gene Expression Analysis of Oocytes Collected from Dairy Cattle and Buffaloes during Winter and Summer

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Tifton 419 Bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon C. transvaaliensis) response to plant grow inhibitors

Tifton 419' bermudagrass cultivar [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers. x C. transvaalensis Burtt-Davy] is the most preferred turfgrass for sportive, commercial and residential lawns. On similar species, such as Stenotaphrum secundatum and Zoysia japonica, gibberellic acid-inhibiting plant growth regulators (PGRs) are used to decrease mowing frequency. A very limited research has been reported yet on the PGRs regarding seasonal effects of single vs. multiple applications of these products on turfgrass quality and clipping production on South America. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of sequential applications of different plant growth inhibitors during re-growth and flower rachis emission of 'Tifton 419' Bermudagrass. The treatment pattern includes an initial application followed by one sequential application at 14 days intervals, according to the following: prohexadione-calcium at 100+100 or 200+200 g a.i. ha-1, bispyribac-sodium at 40+40 or 60+60 g a.i. ha-1, trinexapac-ethyl at 113+113, 226+113, 226+226, 452+113, 452+226, 452+452, 678+0 or 904+0 g a.i. ha-1, and untreated control. The treatment effect was evaluated based on measurements of visual injury, height of plants, height and number of flower rachis, and clipping total dry mass production. The results showed that only bispyribac-sodium provided visual injury on 'Tifton 419' Bermudagrass, but the symptoms quickly tend towards zero at 21 days after second application (DASA). 'Tifton 419' Bermudagrass greens could be better handle by sequential application of trinexapac-ethyl, or prohexadione-calcium or bispyribac-sodium, once the height of plants, seedhead emission and total clipping dry mass reduction were over than 37%, 91% and 88%, respectively, for a period up to 60 DASA.

Time-series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland

SUMMARY Campylobacteriosis has been the most common food-associated notifiable infectious disease in Switzerland since 1995. Contact with and ingestion of raw or undercooked broilers are considered the dominant risk factors for infection. In this study, we investigated the temporal relationship between the disease incidence in humans and the prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers in Switzerland from 2008 to 2012. We use a time-series approach to describe the pattern of the disease by incorporating seasonal effects and autocorrelation. The analysis shows that prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers, with a 2-week lag, has a significant impact on disease incidence in humans. Therefore Campylobacter cases in humans can be partly explained by contagion through broiler meat. We also found a strong autoregressive effect in human illness, and a significant increase of illness during Christmas and New Year's holidays. In a final analysis, we corrected for the sampling error of prevalence in broilers and the results gave similar conclusions.

Insolation, erosion, and morphology of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Context. The complex shape of comet 67P and its oblique rotation axis cause pronounced seasonal effects. Irradiation and hence activity vary strongly. Aims. We investigate the insolation of the cometary surface in order to predict the sublimation of water ice. The strongly varying erosion levels are correlated with the topography and morphology of the present cometary surface and its evolution. Methods. The insolation as a function of heliocentric distance and diurnal (spin dependent) variation is calculated using >10(5) facets of a detailed digital terrain model. Shading, but also illumination and thermal radiation by facets in the field of view of a specific facet are iteratively taken into account. We use a two-layer model of a thin porous dust cover above an icy surface to calculate the water sublimation, presuming steady state and a uniform surface. Our second model, which includes the history of warming and cooling due to thermal inertia, is restricted to a much simpler shape model but allows us to test various distributions of active areas. Results. Sublimation from a dirty ice surface yields maximum erosion. A thin dust cover of 50 pm yields similar rates at perihelion. Only about 6% of the surface needs to be active to match the observed water production rates at perihelion. A dust layer of 1 mm thickness suppresses the activity by a factor of 4 to 5. Erosion on the south side can reach more than 10 m per orbit at active spots. The energy input to the concave neck area (Hapi) during northern summer is enhanced by about 50% owing to self-illumination. Here surface temperatures reach maximum values along the foot of the Hathor wall. Integrated over the whole orbit this area receives the least energy input. Based on the detailed shape model, the simulations identify "hot spots" in depressions and larger pits in good correlation with observed dust activity. Three-quarters of the total sublimation is produced while the sub-solar latitude is south, resulting in a distinct dichotomy in activity and morphology. Conclusions. The northern areas display a much rougher morphology than what is seen on Imhotep, an area at the equator that will be fully illuminated when 67P is closer to the Sun. Self-illumination in concave regions enhance the energy input and hence erosion. This explains the early activity observed at Hapi. Cliffs are more prone to erosion than horizontal, often dust covered, areas, which leads to surface planation. Local activity can only persist if the forming cliff walls are eroding. Comet 67P has two lobes and also two distinct sides. Transport of material from the south to the north is probable. The morphology of the Imhotep plain should be typical for the terrains of the yet unseen southern hemisphere.

Water chemistry and fluffy layer geochemistry and mineral content at four sites in the western Baltic Sea

The fluffy layer was sampled repeatedly during nine expeditions between October 1996 and December 1998 at four stations situated along a S-N-transect from the Oder Estuary to the Arkona Basin. Geochemical and mineralogical analyses of the fluff show regional differences (trends) in composition, attributed to provenance and to hydrographical conditions along their transport pathways. Temporal variability is very high at the shallow water station of the estuary, and decreases towards the deeper stations in the north. In the shallow water area, intensive resuspension of the fluff due to wind-driven waves and currents leads to an average residence time of only one to two days. Near-bottom lateral transport of the fluff is the main process that transfers the fine grained material, containing both nutrients and contaminants, from the coastal zone into the deeper basins of the Baltic Sea. Seasonal effects (e.g. biogenic production in relation to trace metal variation) are observed at the Tromper Wiek station, where the residence time of the fluffy material is in the scale of seasons. Thus, the fluffy layer offers suitable material for environmental monitoring programs.