Estimating the SCAN*PRO model of store sales: HB, FM or just OLS?

In this paper we investigate whether consideration of store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects improves the accuracy of the marketing mix elasticities, fit, and forecasting accuracy of the widely-applied SCAN*PRO model of store sales. Models with continuous and discrete representations of heterogeneity, estimated using hierarchical Bayes (HB) and finite mixture (FM) techniques, respectively, are empirically compared to the original model, which does not account for store-level heterogeneity in marketing mix effects, and is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS). The empirical comparisons are conducted in two contexts: Dutch store-level scanner data for the shampoo product category, and an extensive simulation experiment. The simulation investigates how between- and within-segment variance in marketing mix effects, error variance, the number of weeks of data, and the number of stores impact the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities, model fit, and forecasting accuracy. Contrary to expectations, accommodating store-level heterogeneity does not improve the accuracy of marketing mix elasticities relative to the homogeneous SCAN*PRO model, suggesting that little may be lost by employing the original homogeneous SCAN*PRO model estimated using ordinary least squares. Improvements in fit and forecasting accuracy are also fairly modest. We pursue an explanation for this result since research in other contexts has shown clear advantages from assuming some type of heterogeneity in market response models. In an Afterthought section, we comment on the controversial nature of our result, distinguishing factors inherent to household-level data and associated models vs. general store-level data and associated models vs. the unique SCAN*PRO model specification.

Feasibility studies on using microwave-heating techniques for recycling lead waste

Lead is present everywhere in the environment and has been defined as one of the greatest threats to the human health. In this paper, attempts have been made to study a way of recycling the lead produced from waste usage and disposed of in such a way as to avoid degrading the surrounding environment. In order to contain the waste, recycled asphalt material is mixed with the lead and then heated with microwave energy. This is an attempt to solidify and reduce the lead contaminants and use the final product as sub-base material in road pavement construction. The microwave heating of the specimens is carried out with 30%, 50%, 80% and 100% of power at 800W. The optimum power mode is used to compare with the conventional heating of asphalt with sulfur additive. The results are characterized by compact density, permeability, and subjected to toxicity test with regards to lead concentration. A mechanical test to evaluate the stability is also performed on the three methods of solidification and to prove that microwave zapping method allow to convert into an environmentally stable material for recycling without having to be deposited in a landfill site.