Evaluación y predicción del riesgo de reincidencia en agresores sexuales

Puesto que es muy importante la predicción del riesgo de reincidencia en agresores sexuales, la investigación que aquí se presenta tiene como objetivo la aplicación de uno de los instrumentos más novedosos para la predicción del riesgo de agresión sexual, el Sexual Violence Risc – 20 (SVR-20) desarrollado por un equipo de investigadores canadienses, de manera retrospectiva, a una muestra de agresores sexuales para evaluar la capacidad predictiva de este instrumento y así, poder anticipar la posible reincidencia de los sujetos

Elevated serum f erritin is an independent predictor of severe liver fibrosis, steatosis, and treatment failure in chronic hepatitis C

Background: Infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) i s associatedwith hepatic iron accumulation. We performed a comprehensive analysisof serum ferritin levels and of their genetic determinants in thepathogenesis and treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C enrolledin the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study (SCCS).Methods: Serum ferritin levels at baseline o f therapy with p egylatedinterferon-α ( PEG-IFN-α) and ribavirin or b efore liver biopsy werecorrelated with clinical features of c hronic HCV infection, includingnecroinflammatory activity (N=970), fibrosis (N=980), steatosis (N=886)and response to treatment (N=876). The association b etween highferritin levels (> median) and the endpoints w as assessed b y logisticregression. In addition, a candidate gene analysis as well as a genomewideassociation study (GWAS) of serum ferritin levels were performed.Results: S erum ferritin > sex-specific median was one of the strongestpre-treatment predictors of failure to achieve SVR (P<0.0001, OR=0.46,95% CI=0.34-0.60). This association remained highly significant in amultivariate analysis (P=0.0001, OR=0.32, 95% CI=0.18-0.57), with anodds ratio c omparable to that of IL28B g enotype, and persisted afteradjustment for duration of infection. Additional independent predictors ofnonresponse were viral load, HCV genotype, presence of diabetes, andliver fibrosis stage. Higher serum ferritin levels were also independentlyassociated with severe liver fibrosis (P<0.0001, OR=2.67, 95% CI=1.66-4.28) a nd steatosis (P=0.0034, OR=2.34, 95% CI=1.33-4.12), but n otwith necroinflammatory a ctivity (P=0.3). No significant g eneticdeterminants of serum ferritin levels were identified.Conclusions: Elevated serum ferritin levels are associated withadvanced liver fibrosis, hepatic steatosis, and poor r esponse to IFN-α-based therapy in c hronic hepatitis C, i ndependently from IL28Bgenotype.

Treatment of chronic hepatitis c in 3 patients with hcv-induced severe thrombocytopenia

BACKGROUND: Thrombocytopenia has been described in HCV infection even in the absence of cirrhosis and splenomegaly. Different mechanisms have been proposed, including immunemediated platelet (plt) destruction. Here, we report on the treatment of 3 patients with HCV-HIV coinfection and HCVinduced severe thrombocytopenia. PATIENTS AND TREATMENT: All patients had an infection with HCV genotype 3, an intermediate fibrosis stage (Metavir F2 or F3), HIV infection controlled by antiretroviral combination therapy, and severe, steroid-refractory thrombocytopenia. Pegylated interferon-α2a (PEG-IFN-α2a) was started at 45 or 90 μg per week and doses were rapidly increased in the following, while ribavirin (RBV) was prescribed at standard doses. Treatment was pursued for 48 weeks. Two patients received intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG) during the first weeks of PEG-IFN-α2a and RBV combination therapy. RESULTS: A significant increase in plt counts (from 17, 39 and 37 G/l, respectively, to > 100 G/l) was observed in the 3 patients while they experienced a virological response. Thrombocytopenia relapsed in one patient together with a relapse of chronic hepatitis C. The other 2 patients achieved a sustained virological response (SVR), with normal plt counts at follow-up in one and persistent mild thrombocytopenia in the other. CONCLUSIONS: Carefully titrated PEG-IFN-α2a and RBV combination therapy may be performed safely in this difficult-totreat patient population, with close monitoring and eventually concomitant IVIG during the first weeks. SVR can lead to normalization or significant improvement of plt counts, suggesting a causative role of HCV in this condition.

The role of bile acid retention and a common polymorphism in the ABCB11 gene as host factors affecting antiviral treatment response in chronic hepatitis C.

Summary.  The outcome of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and the likelihood of a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy depends on both viral and host characteristics. In vitro studies demonstrated that bile acids (BA) interfere with antiviral interferon effects. We investigate the influence of plasma BA concentrations and an ABCB11 polymorphism associated with lower transporter expression on viral load and SVR. Four hundred and fifty-one Caucasian HCV-patients treated with PEG-interferon and ribavirin were included in the study. ABCB11 1331T>C was genotyped, and plasma BA levels were determined. The 1331C allele was slightly overrepresented in HCV-patients compared to controls. In HCV-patients, a significant difference between patients achieving SVR vs non-SVR was observed for HCV-2/3 (5 vs 9 μm; P = 0.0001), while median BA levels in HCV-1 were marginally elevated. Normal BA levels <8 μm were significantly associated with SVR (58.3%vs 36.3%; OR 2.48; P = 0.0001). This difference was significant for HCV-2/3 (90.7%vs 67.6%; P = 0.002) but marginal in HCV-1 (38.7%vs 27.8%; P = 0.058). SVR rates were equivalent between ABCB11 genotypes for HCV-1, but increased for HCV-2/3 (TT 100%vs CC 78%; OR 2.01; P = 0.043). IL28B genotype had no influence on these associations. No correlation between BA levels and HCV RNA was detected for any HCV genotype. The higher allelic frequency of ABCB11 1331C in HCV-patients compared to controls may indirectly link increased BA to HCV chronicity. Our data support a role for BA as host factor affecting therapy response in HCV-2/3 patients, whereas a weaker association was found for HCV-1.

Sequencing of E2 and NS5A regions of HCV genotype 3a in Brazilian patients with chronic hepatitis

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major cause of liver disease throughout the world. The NS5A and E2 proteins of HCV genotype 1 were reported to inhibit the double-stranded (ds) RNA-dependent protein kinase (PKR), which is involved in the cellular antiviral response induced by interferon (IFN). The response to IFN therapy is quite different between genotypes, with response rates among patients infected with types 2 and 3 that are two-three-fold higher than in patients infected with type 1. Interestingly, a significant percentage of HCV genotype 3-infected patients do not respond to treatment at all. The aim of this paper was to analyse the sequences of fragments of the E2 and NS5A regions from 33 outpatients infected with genotype 3a, including patients that have responded (SVR) or not responded (NR) to treatment. HCV RNA was extracted and amplified with specific primers for the NS5A and E2 regions and the PCR products were then sequenced. The sequences obtained covered amino acids (aa) 636-708 in E2 and in NS5A [including the IFN sensitivity determining region (ISDR), PKR-binding domain and extended V3 region)]. In the E2 and NS5A regions, we did observe aa changes among patients, but these changes were not statistically significant between the SVR and NR groups. In conclusion, our results suggest that the ISDR domain is not predictive of treatment success in patients infected with HCV genotype 3a.

Soluble inflammatory markers as predictors of virological response in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection treated with interferon-α plus ribavirin

The host immune response plays an important role in viral clearance in patients who are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and are treated with interferon and ribavirin. Activation of the immune system involves the release of pro and anti-inflammatory molecules that can be measured in plasma samples. The present study aimed to evaluate the association between pretreatment plasma levels of chemokines and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors (sTNF-R) and the virological response in treated patients with chronic hepatitis C infection. Forty-one chronically-infected HCV patients that were being treated with interferon-α (IFN-α) plus ribavirin were included in the study. Socio-demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected and pretreatment plasma levels of chemokine CCL2, CCL3, CCL11, CCL24, chemokine CXCL9, CXCL10, sTNF-R1 and sTNF-R2 were measured. The virological response was assessed at treatment week 12, at the end of treatment and 24 weeks after treatment. Pretreatment CXCL10 levels were significantly higher in patients without an early virological response (EVR) or sustained virological response (SVR) compared to responders [512.9 pg/mL vs. 179.1 pg/mL (p = 0.011) and 289.9 pg/mL vs. 142.7 pg/mL (p = 0.045), respectively]. The accuracy of CXCL10 as a predictor of the absence of EVR and SVR was 0.79 [confidence interval (CI) 95%: 0.59-0.99] and 0.69 (CI 95%: 0.51-0.87), respectively. Pretreatment plasma levels of the other soluble inflammatory markers evaluated were not associated with a treatment response. Pretreatment CXCL10 levels were predictive of both EVR and SVR to IFN-α and ribavirin and may be useful in the evaluation of candidates for therapy.

Influence of IL28B polymorphisms on response to a lower-than-standard dose peg-IFN-α 2a for genotype 3 chronic hepatitis C in HIV-coinfected patients.

BACKGROUND Data on which to base definitive recommendations on the doses and duration of therapy for genotype 3 HCV/HIV-coinfected patients are scarce. We evaluated the efficacy of a lower peginterferon-α 2a dose and a shorter duration of therapy than the current standard of care in genotype 3 HCV/HIV-coinfected patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS Pilot, open-label, single arm clinical trial which involved 58 Caucasian HCV/HIV-coinfected patients who received weekly 135 µg peginterferon-α 2a plus ribavirin 400 mg twice daily during 20 weeks after attaining undetectable viremia. The relationships between baseline patient-related variables, including IL28B genotype, plasma HCV-RNA, ribavirin dose/kg, peginterferon-α 2a and ribavirin levels with virological responses were analyzed. Only 4 patients showed lack of response and 5 patients dropped out due to adverse events related to the study medication. Overall, sustained virologic response (SVR) rates were 58.3% by intention-to-treat and 71.4% by per protocol analysis, respectively. Among patients with rapid virologic response (RVR), SVR and relapses rates were 92.6% and 7.4%, respectively. No relationships were observed between viral responses and ribavirin dose/kg, peginterferon-α 2a concentrations, ribavirin levels or rs129679860 genotype. CONCLUSIONS Weekly 135 µg pegIFN-α 2a could be as effective as the standard 180 µg dose, with a very low incidence of severe adverse events. A 24-week treatment duration appears to be appropriate in patients achieving RVR, but extending treatment up to just 20 weeks beyond negativization of viremia is associated with a high relapse rate in those patients not achieving RVR. There was no influence of IL28B genotype on the virological responses.

Assessment of the treatment of chronic hepatitis C in the state of Mato Grosso, central Brazil

In Brazil, the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is funded by the national public health system (SUS). To evaluate treatment results in the state of Mato Grosso, central Brazil, we have consulted the files of the office of the State Department of Health responsible for supplying such medications. We obtained information on 232 treatments of 201 patients who underwent treatment in or prior to 2008. The study was conducted by reviewing medical records, making telephone calls and interviewing the assistant physicians. Thirty-nine patients (19.4%) had cirrhosis and HCV genotype 1 predominated (64.3%). Excluding patients with comorbidities or treatment without ribavirin we analysed 175 treatments (sustained virologic response occurred in 32.6% of cases). Twenty-six of these 175 were retreatments and the sustained virological response (SVR) rate among them was 30.8%; the SVR rate was 32.9% among those receiving treatment for the first time. The SVR rate of genotype 1 patients was 27.8%, whereas it was 37.5% in non-1 genotype patients. The adjusted multivariate analysis showed association of SVR with the absence of cirrhosis [odds ratio (OR): 7.7; confidence interval (CI) 95%: 2.5, 33.3], the use of pegylated interferon (OR: 5.8; CI 95%: 1.5, 21.4), non-1 genotype (OR: 5.3; CI 95%: 1.7, 16.7) and uninterrupted treatment (OR: 9.0; CI 95%: 3.3, 45.4). The SVR rates were similar to those found in other Brazilian studies about HCV, but lower than those found in national and international clinical trials. These data suggest that the treatments of chronic hepatitis C that are made available by SUS does not, under normal conditions, work as well as the original controlled studies indicated.

A single nucleotide polymorphism, rs129679860, in the IL28B locus is associated with the viral kinetics and a sustained virological response in a chronic, monoinfected hepatitis C virus genotype-1 Brazilian population treated with pegylated interferon-ribavirin

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the interleukin (IL)28B locus have been associated with a sustained virological response (SVR) in interferon-ribavirin (IFN-RBV)-treated chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients in European and African populations. In this study, the genotype frequency of two IL28B SNPs (rs129679860 and rs8099917) in a cohort of chronic HCV-monoinfected patients in Brazil was evaluated and the SNP sufficient to predict the treatment response outcome was determined. A total of 66 naïve genotype-1 chronic HCV-infected patients were genotyped and the associated viral kinetics and SVR were assessed. The overall SVR was 38%. Both the viral kinetics and SVR were associated with rs129679860 genotypes (CC = 62% vs. CT = 33% vs. TT = 18%, p = 0.016). However, rs8099917 genotypes were only associated with SVR (TT = 53% vs. TG = 33% vs. GG = 18%; p = 0.032). In this population, the analysis of a single SNP, rs12979860, successfully predicts SVR in the IFN-RBV treatment of HCV.

Response to treatment in Brazilian patients with chronic hepatitis C is associated with a single-nucleotide polymorphism near the interleukin-28B gene

A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) upstream of interleukin (IL)28B was recently identified as an important predictor of the outcome of chronic hepatitis C patients treated with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin (PEG-IFN/RBV). The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the IL28B gene polymorphism (rs12979860) and virological response in chronic hepatitis C patients. Brazilian patients (n = 263) who were infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 and were receiving PEG-IFN/RBV were genotyped. Early virological response (EVR) (12 weeks), end-of-treatment response (EOTR) (48 weeks), sustained virological response (SVR) (72 weeks) and relapse were evaluated using conventional and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays. The frequency of the C allele in the population was 39%. Overall, 43% of patients experienced SVR. The IL28B CC genotype was significantly associated with higher treatment response rates and a lower relapse rate compared to the other genotypes [84% vs. 58% EVR, 92% vs. 63% EOTR, 76% vs. 38% SVR and 17% vs. 40% relapse rate in CC vs. other genotypes (CT and TT), respectively]. Thus, the IL28B genotype appears to be a strong predictor of SVR following PEG-IFN/RBV therapy in treatment-naïve Brazilian patients infected with HCV genotype 1. This study, together with similar research examining other SNPs, should help to define adequate protocols for the treatment of patients infected with HCV genotype 1, especially those with a poor prognosis.

Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Tumour necrosis factor -308 and -238 promoter polymorphisms are predictors of a null virological response in the treatment of Brazilian hepatitis C patients

Certain host single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) affect the likelihood of a sustained virological response (SVR) to treatment in subjects infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). SNPs in the promoters of interleukin (IL)-10 (-1082 A/G, rs1800896), myxovirus resistance protein 1 (-123 C/A, rs17000900 and -88 G/T, rs2071430) and tumour necrosis factor (TNF) (-308 G/A, rs1800629 and -238 G/A, rs361525) genes and the outcome of PEGylated α-interferon plus ribavirin therapy were investigated. This analysis was performed in 114 Brazilian, HCV genotype 1-infected patients who had a SVR and in 85 non-responders and 64 relapsers. A significantly increased risk of having a null virological response was observed in patients carrying at least one A allele at positions -308 [odds ratios (OR) = 2.58, 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.44-4.63, p = 0.001] or -238 (OR = 7.33, 95% CI = 3.59-14.93, p < 0.001) in the TNF promoter. The risk of relapsing was also elevated (-308: OR = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.51-5.44, p = 0.001; -238: OR = 4.20, 95% CI = 1.93-9.10, p < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression of TNF diplotypes showed that patients with at least two copies of the A allele had an even higher risk of having a null virological response (OR = 16.43, 95% CI = 5.70-47.34, p < 0.001) or relapsing (OR = 6.71, 95% CI = 2.18-20.66, p = 0.001). No statistically significant association was found between the other SNPs under study and anti-HCV therapy response.

Management of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in drug substitution programs.

BACKGROUND: In Switzerland, intravenous drug use (IDU) accounts for 80% of newly acquired hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. Early HCV treatment has the potential to interrupt the transmission chain and reduce morbidity/mortality due to decompensated liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Nevertheless, patients in drug substitution programs are often insufficiently screened and treated. OBJECTIVE/METHODS: With the aim to improve HCV management in IDUs, we conducted a cross sectional chart review in three opioid substitution programs in St. Gallen (125 methadone and 71 heroin recipients). Results were compared with another heroin substitution program in Bern (202 patients) and SCCS/SHCS data. RESULTS: Among the methadone/heroin recipients in St. Gallen, diagnostic workup of HCV was better than expected: HCV/HIV-status was unknown in only 1% (2/196), HCV RNA was not performed in 9% (13/146) of anti-HCV-positives and the genotype missing in 15% (12/78) of HCV RNA-positives. In those without spontaneous clearance (two thirds), HCV treatment uptake was 23% (21/91) (HIV-: 29% (20/68), HIV+: 4% (1/23)), which was lower than in methadone/heroin recipients and particularly non-IDUs within the SCCS/SHCS, but higher than in the, mainly psychiatrically focussed, heroin substitution program in Bern (8%). Sustained virological response (SVR) rates were comparable in all settings (overall: 50%, genotype 1: 35-40%, genotype 3: two thirds). In St. Gallen, the median delay from the estimated date of infection (IDU start) to first diagnosis was 10 years and to treatment was another 7.5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Future efforts need to focus on earlier HCV diagnosis and improvement of treatment uptake among patients in drug substitution programs, particularly if patients are HIV-co-infected. New potent drugs might facilitate the decision to initiate treatment.

Factores predictores del riesgo en los agresores violentos encarcelados

La finalidad de este estudio cuasi-experimental fue fue identificar los factores de riesgo para la reincidencia en los delitos violentos, sexuales y delitos de violencia doméstica y evaluar la eficacia del tratamiento. Se seleccionó una muestra de 120 internos del Centre Penitenciari Ponent condenados por delitos violentos, sexuales y de violencia doméstica que obtuvieron la libertad entre los años 2001 y 2006; el período de seguimiento osciló entre 3 y 8 años. Se analizaron veintisiete variables agrupadas en factores de riesgo y la reincidencia. Los datos se obtuvieron de la administración del HCR-20, de la SVR-20, de la S.A.R.A., de la PCL-R, del IPDE y del MMPI-2 y de las bases de datos del Departamento de justicia de Cataluña. Los internos con trastorno mental reincidieron más en delitos sexuales y de violencia doméstica y aquellos con trastornos de personalidad reincidieron más en delitos violentos. Una puntuación elevada en HCR-20, SVR-20, S.A.R.A. y PCL-R incrementó el riesgo de reincidencia. Al contrario, superar el tratamiento reduce la reincidencia pero presentar trastornos mentales, trastornos de personalidad, toxicomanías y puntuar alto en el HCR-20 y en la PCL-R dificultaron superar el tratamiento. A mayor período de seguimiento menor capacidad predictiva de los instrumentos de evaluación del riesgo y del tratamiento.

Treatment of hepatitis C in HCV mono-infected and in HIV-HCV co-infected patients: an open-labelled comparison study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Treatment of chronic HCV infection has become a priority in HIV+ patients, given the faster progression to end-stage liver disease. The primary endpoint of this study was to evaluate and compare antiviral efficacy of Peginterferon alpha 2a plus ribavirin in HIV-HCV co-infected and HCV mono-infected patients, and to examine whether 6 months of therapy would have the same efficacy in HIV patients with favourable genotypes 2 and 3 as in mono-infected patients, to minimise HCV-therapy-related toxicities. Secondary endpoints were to evaluate predictors of sustained virological response (SVR) and frequency of side-effects. METHODS: Patients with genotypes 1 and 4 were treated for 48 weeks with Pegasys 180 microg/week plus Copegus 1000-1200 mg/day according to body weight; patients with genotypes 2 and 3 for 24 weeks with Pegasys 180 microg/week plus Copegus 800 mg/day. RESULTS: 132 patients were enrolled in the study: 85 HCV mono-infected (38: genotypes 1 and 4; 47: genotypes 2 and 3), 47 HIV-HCV co-infected patients (23: genotypes 1 and 4; 24: genotypes 2 and 3). In an intention-to-treat analysis, SVR for genotypes 1 and 4 was observed in 58% of HCV mono-infected and in 13% of HIV-HCV co-infected patients (P = 0.001). For genotypes 2 and 3, SVR was observed in 70% of HCV mono-infected and in 67% of HIV-HCV co-infected patients (P = 0.973). Undetectable HCV-RNA at week 4 had a positive predictive value for SVR for mono-infected patients with genotypes 1 and 4 of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.54-0.93) and of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64-0.92) for genotypes 2 and 3. For co-infected patients with genotypes 2 and 3, the positive predictive value of SVR of undetectable HCV-RNA at week 4 was 0.76 (95%CI, 0.50-0.93). Study not completed by 22 patients (36%): genotypes 1 and 4 and by 12 patients (17%): genotypes 2 and 3. CONCLUSION: Genotypes 2 or 3 predict the likelihood of SVR in HCV mono-infected and in HIV-HCV co-infected patients. A 6-month treatment with Peginterferon alpha 2a plus ribavirin has the same efficacy in HIV-HCV co-infected patients with genotypes 2 and 3 as in mono-infected patients. HCV-RNA negativity at 4 weeks has a positive predictive value for SVR. Aggressive treatment of adverse effects to avoid dose reduction, consent withdrawal or drop-out is crucial to increase the rate of SVR, especially when duration of treatment is 48 weeks. Sixty-one percent of HIV-HCV co-infected patients with genotypes 1 and 4 did not complete the study against 4% with genotypes 2 and 3.