Applying statistical approaches in the dissection of genes versus environment for asthma and allergic disease

Now that some of the genes involved in asthma and allergy have been identified, interest is turning to how genetic predisposition interacts with exposure to environmental risk factors. These questions are best answered by studies in which both genotypes and other risk factors are measured, but even simpler studies, in which family history is used as a proxy for genotype, have made suggestive findings. For example, early breast feeding may increase the risk of allergic disease in genetically susceptible children, and decrease the risk of 'sporadic' allergy. This review also addresses the overall importance of genetic causes of allergic disease in the general population.

Solicitors disciplinary hearings in Queensland 1930-2000: a statistical analysis

This article reports on the results of a study undertaken by the author together with her research assistant, Heather Green. The study collected and analysed data from all disciplinary tribunal decisions heard in Queensland since 1930 in an attempt to provide empirical information which has previously been lacking. This article will outline the main features of the disciplinary system in Queensland, describe the research methodology used in the present study and then report on some findings from the study. Reported findings include a profile of solicitors who have appeared before a disciplinary hearing, the types of matters which have attracted formal discipline and the types of orders made by the tribunal. Much of the data is then presented on a time scale so as to reveal any changes over time.

Comparative phylogeography of three rainforest-restricted lizards from mid-east Queensland

Several small isolates of rainforest situated on the central eastern coast of Australia are home to a rich herpetofauna, including four endemic species of leaftail geckos (Phyllurus spp.) and two skinks (Eulamprus spp.). To examine the extent and geographic pattern of historical subdivision among isolates, we assayed mtDNA variation in two species endemic to rainforests of this region (Phyllurus ossa and Eulamprus amplus) and, for comparison, a more widespread and less specialised lizard, Carlia rhomboidalis. There is a clear genetic signature of historical changes in population size and distribution in P. ossa that is consistent with Pleistocene (or earlier) rainforest contraction and subsequent expansion. Although more pronounced in the gecko, phylogeographic structure was congruent between E. amplus and P. ossa. In contrast to the saxicolous, rainforest-restricted P. ossa and E. amplus, the rainforest-generalist species, C. rhomboidalis, does not display strong geographic population structure. The differences in genetic population structure exhibited by the three species are consistent with species-specific differences in ecology.

Comparative phylogeography of two open forest frogs from eastern Australia

We investigated the phylogeography of two closely related Australian frog species from open forest habitats, Limnodynastes tasmaniensis and L. peronii, using mitochondrial ND4 sequence data. Comparison of our results with previous work on Litoria fallax allowed us to test the generality of phylogeographic patterns among non-rainforest anurans along the east coast of Australia. In general, there was no strong evidence for congruence between overall patterns of genetic structure in the three species. However, phylogenetic breaks congruent with the position of the Burdekin Gap were detected at some level in all species. As previously noted for closed forest taxa, this area of dry habitat appears to have been an important influence on the evolution of several open forest taxa. There were broad geographic similarities in the phylogenetic structuring of southern populations of L. peronii and L. tasmaniensis. Contrarily, although the McPherson Range has previously been noted to coincide geographically with a major mtDNA phylogenetic break in Litoria fallax this pattern is not apparent in L. peronii or L. tasmaniensis. It appears that major phylogeographic splits within L. peronii and L. tasmaniensis may predate the Quaternary. We conclude that phylogeographies of open forest frogs are complex and more difficult to predict than for rainforest taxa, mainly due to an absence of palaeomodels for historical distributions of non-rainforest habitats. (C) 2001 The Linnean Society of London.

The application of statistical process control charts to the detection and monitoring of hospital-acquired infections

The monitoring of infection control indicators including hospital-acquired infections is an established part of quality maintenance programmes in many health-care facilities. However, surveillance data use can be frustrated by the infrequent nature of many infections. Traditional methods of analysis often provide delayed identification of increasing infection occurrence, placing patients at preventable risk. The application of Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistical process control charts to the monitoring of indicator infections allows continuous real-time assessment. The Shewhart chart will detect large changes, while CUSUM and EWMA methods are more suited to recognition of small to moderate sustained change. When used together, Shewhart and EWMA methods are ideal for monitoring bacteraemia and multiresistant organism rates. Shewhart and CUSUM charts are suitable for surgical infection surveillance.

Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the Wet Tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875)

Comparative phylogeography has proved useful for investigating biological responses to past climate change and is strongest when combined with extrinsic hypotheses derived from the fossil record or geology. However, the rarity of species with sufficient, spatially explicit fossil evidence restricts the application of this method. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which spatial models of predicted species distributions under serial paleoclimates are compared with a molecular phylogeography, in this case for a snail endemic to the rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. We also compare the phylogeography of the snail to those from several endemic vertebrates and use consilience across all of these approaches to enhance biogeographical inference for this rainforest fauna. The snail mtDNA phylogeography is consistent with predictions from paleoclimate modeling in relation to the location and size of climatic refugia through the late Pleistocene-Holocene and broad patterns of extinction and recolonization. There is general agreement between quantitative estimates of population expansion from sequence data (using likelihood and coalescent methods) vs. distributional modeling. The snail phylogeography represents a composite of both common and idiosyncratic patterns seen among vertebrates, reflecting the geographically finer scale of persistence and subdivision in the snail. In general, this multifaceted approach, combining spatially explicit paleoclimatological models and comparative phylogeography, provides a powerful approach to locating historical refugia and understanding species' responses to them.

Phylogeography of the pipefish, Urocampus carinirostris, suggests secondary intergradation of ancient lineages

We assayed the pattern of mitoehondrial DNA evolution in the live bearing, seagrass specialist pipefish, Urocampus carinirostris, in eastern Australia. These life history attributes were predicted to result in strong phylogeographic structure in U. carinirostris. Phylogenetic analysis of cytochrome b sequences detected two monophyletic mtDNA clades that differed by 8.69% sequence divergence - a large level of intraspecific divergence for a marine fish. The geographical distribution of clades was non-random and resembled clinal secondary intergradation over a 130-km stretch of coastline. Contrary to phylogeographic predictions, this large phylogeographic break does not occur across a traditionally recognised biogeographic boundary. Analyses of historical demography suggested that individuals belonging to the most widespread clade underwent a population expansion from a small refuge population during the Pleistocene.

The phylogeography and connectivity of the latitudinally widespread scleractinian coral Plesiastrea versipora in the Western Pacific

Whereas terrestrial animal populations might show genetic connectivity within a continent, marine species, such as hermatypic corals, may have connectivity stretching to all corners of the planet. We quantified the genetic variability within and among populations of the widespread scleractinian coral, Plesiastrea versipora along the eastern Australian seaboard (4145 km) and the Ryukyu Archipelago (Japan, 681 km) using sequences of internal transcribed spacers (ITS1-2) from ribosomal DNA. Geographic patterns in genetic variability were deduced from a nested clade analysis (NCA) performed on a parsimony network haplotype. This analysis allowed the establishment of geographical associations in the distribution of haplotypes within the network cladogram, therefore allowing us to deduce phylogeographical patterns based under models of restricted gene flow, fragmentation and range expansion. No significant structure was found among Ryukyu Archipelago populations. The lack of an association between the positions of haplotypes in the cladogram with geographical location of these populations may be accounted for by a high level of gene flow of P. versipora within this region, probably due to the strong Kuroshio Current. In contrast, strong geographical associations were apparent among populations of P. versipora along the south-east coast of Australia. This pattern of restricted genetic connectivity among populations of P. versipora on the eastern seaboard of Australia seems to be associated with the present surface ocean current (the East Australian Current) on this side of the south-western Pacific Ocean.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.