Localização de robôs móveis autônomos utilizando fusão sensorial de odometria e visão monocular

The development and refinement of techniques that make simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) for an autonomous mobile robot and the building of local 3-D maps from a sequence of images, is widely studied in scientific circles. This work presents a monocular visual SLAM technique based on extended Kalman filter, which uses features found in a sequence of images using the SURF descriptor (Speeded Up Robust Features) and determines which features can be used as marks by a technique based on delayed initialization from 3-D straight lines. For this, only the coordinates of the features found in the image and the intrinsic and extrinsic camera parameters are avaliable. Its possible to determine the position of the marks only on the availability of information of depth. Tests have shown that during the route, the mobile robot detects the presence of characteristics in the images and through a proposed technique for delayed initialization of marks, adds new marks to the state vector of the extended Kalman filter (EKF), after estimating the depth of features. With the estimated position of the marks, it was possible to estimate the updated position of the robot at each step, obtaining good results that demonstrate the effectiveness of monocular visual SLAM system proposed in this paper

Kerr-Newman solution as a Dirac particle

For m(2) < a(2) + q(2), with m, a, and q respectively the source mass, angular momentum per unit mass, and electric charge, the Kerr-Newman (KN) solution of Einstein's equation reduces to a naked singularity of circular shape, enclosing a disk across which the metric components fail to be smooth. By considering the Hawking and Ellis extended interpretation of the KN spacetime, it is shown that, similarly to the electron-positron system, this solution presents four inequivalent classical states. Making use of Wheeler's idea of charge without charge, the topological structure of the extended KN spatial section is found to be highly non-trivial, leading thus to the existence of gravitational states with half-integral angular momentum. This property is corroborated by the fact that, under a rotation of the space coordinates, those inequivalent states transform into themselves only after a 4π rotation. As a consequence, it becomes possible to naturally represent them in a Lorentz spinor basis. The state vector representing the whole KN solution is then constructed, and its evolution is shown to be governed by the Dirac equation. The KN solution can thus be consistently interpreted as a model for the electron-positron system, in which the concepts of mass, charge and spin become connected with the spacetime geometry. Some phenomenological consequences of the model are explored.

Batch, sequential and hybrid approaches to spacecraft sensor alignment estimation

Two Kalman-filter formulations are presented for the estimation of spacecraft sensor misalignments from inflight data. In the first the sensor misalignments are part of the filter state variable; in the second, which we call HYLIGN, the state vector contains only dynamical variables, but the sensitivities of the filter innovations to the misalignments are calculated within the Kalman filter. This procedure permits the misalignments to be estimated in batch mode as well as a much smaller dimension for the Kalman filter state vector. This results not only in a significantly smaller computational burden but also in a smaller sensitivity of the misalignment estimates to outliers in the data. Numerical simulations of the filter performance are presented.

Batch and filter approaches to spacecraft sensor alignment estimation

Two Kalman-filter formulations are presented for the estimation of spacecraft sensor misalignments from inflight data. In the first the sensor misalignments are part of the filter state variable; in the second the state vector contains only dynamical variables, but the sensitivities of the filter innovations to the misalignments are calculated within the Kalman filter. This procedure permits the misalignments to be estimated in batch mode as well as a much smaller dimension for the Kalman filter state vector. This results not only in a significantly smaller computational burden but also in a smaller sensitivity of the misalignment estimates to outliers in the data. Numerical simulations of the filter performance are presented.

Variable structure control of switched systems based on Lyapunov-Metzler-SPR systems

This paper presents two Variable Structure Controllers (VSC) for continuous-time switched plants. It is assumed that the state vector is available for feedback. The proposed control system provides a switching rule and also the variable structure control input. The design is based on Lyapunov-Metzler (LM) inequalities and also on Strictly Positive Real (SPR) systems stability results. The definition of Lyapunov-Metzler-SPR (LMS) systems and its direct application in the design of VSC for switched systems are introduced in this paper. Two examples illustrate the design of the proposed VSC, considering a plant given by a switched system with a switched-state control law and two linear time-invariant systems, that are not controllable and also can not be stabilized with state feedback. ©2008 IEEE.

Controle robusto h-infinito chaveado para sistemas lineares

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Construção,modelagem e controle de um pêndulo invertido com CLP e software scada

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Projeto de controladores baseados em LMIs: realimentação derivativa e sistemas chaveados utilizando estrutura variável

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelagem e controle de sistemas fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Controle robusto de sistemas não lineares e chaveado de sistemas lineares usando realimentação derivativa

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Soft-decision equalization techniques for frequency selective MIMO channels

Multi-input multi-output (MIMO) technology is an emerging solution for high data rate wireless communications. We develop soft-decision based equalization techniques for frequency selective MIMO channels in the quest for low-complexity equalizers with BER performance competitive to that of ML sequence detection. We first propose soft decision equalization (SDE), and demonstrate that decision feedback equalization (DFE) based on soft-decisions, expressed via the posterior probabilities associated with feedback symbols, is able to outperform hard-decision DFE, with a low computational cost that is polynomial in the number of symbols to be recovered, and linear in the signal constellation size. Building upon the probabilistic data association (PDA) multiuser detector, we present two new MIMO equalization solutions to handle the distinctive channel memory. With their low complexity, simple implementations, and impressive near-optimum performance offered by iterative soft-decision processing, the proposed SDE methods are attractive candidates to deliver efficient reception solutions to practical high-capacity MIMO systems. Motivated by the need for low-complexity receiver processing, we further present an alternative low-complexity soft-decision equalization approach for frequency selective MIMO communication systems. With the help of iterative processing, two detection and estimation schemes based on second-order statistics are harmoniously put together to yield a two-part receiver structure: local multiuser detection (MUD) using soft-decision Probabilistic Data Association (PDA) detection, and dynamic noise-interference tracking using Kalman filtering. The proposed Kalman-PDA detector performs local MUD within a sub-block of the received data instead of over the entire data set, to reduce the computational load. At the same time, all the inter-ference affecting the local sub-block, including both multiple access and inter-symbol interference, is properly modeled as the state vector of a linear system, and dynamically tracked by Kalman filtering. Two types of Kalman filters are designed, both of which are able to track an finite impulse response (FIR) MIMO channel of any memory length. The overall algorithms enjoy low complexity that is only polynomial in the number of information-bearing bits to be detected, regardless of the data block size. Furthermore, we introduce two optional performance-enhancing techniques: cross- layer automatic repeat request (ARQ) for uncoded systems and code-aided method for coded systems. We take Kalman-PDA as an example, and show via simulations that both techniques can render error performance that is better than Kalman-PDA alone and competitive to sphere decoding. At last, we consider the case that channel state information (CSI) is not perfectly known to the receiver, and present an iterative channel estimation algorithm. Simulations show that the performance of SDE with channel estimation approaches that of SDE with perfect CSI.

Accurate pedestrian indoor navigation by tightly coupling foot-mounted IMU and RFID measurements

We present a new method to accurately locate persons indoors by fusing inertial navigation system (INS) techniques with active RFID technology. A foot-mounted inertial measuring units (IMUs)-based position estimation method, is aided by the received signal strengths (RSSs) obtained from several active RFID tags placed at known locations in a building. In contrast to other authors that integrate IMUs and RSS with a loose Kalman filter (KF)-based coupling (by using the residuals of inertial- and RSS-calculated positions), we present a tight KF-based INS/RFID integration, using the residuals between the INS-predicted reader-to-tag ranges and the ranges derived from a generic RSS path-loss model. Our approach also includes other drift reduction methods such as zero velocity updates (ZUPTs) at foot stance detections, zero angular-rate updates (ZARUs) when the user is motionless, and heading corrections using magnetometers. A complementary extended Kalman filter (EKF), throughout its 15-element error state vector, compensates the position, velocity and attitude errors of the INS solution, as well as IMU biases. This methodology is valid for any kind of motion (forward, lateral or backward walk, at different speeds), and does not require an offline calibration for the user gait. The integrated INS+RFID methodology eliminates the typical drift of IMU-alone solutions (approximately 1% of the total traveled distance), resulting in typical positioning errors along the walking path (no matter its length) of approximately 1.5 m.

Interpretación geométrica de redes neuronales recurrentes discretas mediante grafos completos

El objetivo del presente trabajo de investigación es explorar nuevas técnicas de implementación, basadas en grafos, para las Redes de Neuronas, con el fin de simplificar y optimizar las arquitecturas y la complejidad computacional de las mismas. Hemos centrado nuestra atención en una clase de Red de Neuronas: las Redes de Neuronas Recursivas (RNR), también conocidas como redes de Hopfield. El problema de obtener la matriz sináptica asociada con una RNR imponiendo un determinado número de vectores como puntos fijos, no está en absoluto resuelto, el número de vectores prototipo que pueden ser almacenados en la red, cuando se utiliza la ley de Hebb, es bastante limitado, la red se satura rápidamente cuando se pretende almacenar nuevos prototipos. La ley de Hebb necesita, por tanto, ser revisada. Algunas aproximaciones dirigidas a solventar dicho problema, han sido ya desarrolladas. Nosotros hemos desarrollado una nueva aproximación en la forma de implementar una RNR en orden a solucionar estos problemas. La matriz sináptica es obtenida mediante la superposición de las componentes de los vectores prototipo, sobre los vértices de un Grafo, lo cual puede ser también interpretado como una coloración de dicho grafo. Cuando el periodo de entrenamiento se termina, la matriz de adyacencia del Grafo Resultante o matriz de pesos, presenta ciertas propiedades por las cuales dichas matrices serán llamadas tetraédricas. La energía asociada a cualquier estado de la red es representado por un punto (a,b) de R2. Cada uno de los puntos de energía asociados a estados que disten lo mismo del vector cero está localizado sobre la misma línea de energía de R2. El espacio de vectores de estado puede, por tanto, clasificarse en n clases correspondientes a cada una de las n diferentes distancias que puede tener cualquier vector al vector cero. La matriz (n x n) de pesos puede reducirse a un n-vector; de esta forma, tanto el tiempo de computación como el espacio de memoria requerido par almacenar los pesos, son simplificados y optimizados. En la etapa de recuperación, es introducido un vector de parámetros R2, éste es utilizado para controlar la capacidad de la red: probaremos que lo mayor es la componente a¡, lo menor es el número de puntos fijos pertenecientes a la línea de energía R¡. Una vez que la capacidad de la red ha sido controlada mediante este parámetro, introducimos otro parámetro, definido como la desviación del vector de pesos relativos, este parámetro sirve para disminuir ostensiblemente el número de parásitos. A lo largo de todo el trabajo, hemos ido desarrollando un ejemplo, el cual nos ha servido para ir corroborando los resultados teóricos, los algoritmos están escritos en un pseudocódigo, aunque a su vez han sido implamentados utilizando el paquete Mathematica 2.2., mostrándolos en un volumen suplementario al texto.---ABSTRACT---The aim of the present research is intended to explore new specifícation techniques of Neural Networks based on Graphs to be used in the optimization and simplification of Network Architectures and Computational Complexhy. We have focused our attention in a, well known, class of Neural Networks: the Recursive Neural Networks, also known as Hopfield's Neural Networks. The general problem of constructing the synaptic matrix associated with a Recursive Neural Network imposing some vectors as fixed points is fer for completery solved, the number of prototype vectors (learning patterns) which can be stored by Hebb's law is rather limited and the memory will thus quickly reach saturation if new prototypes are continuously acquired in the course of time. Hebb's law needs thus to be revised in order to allow new prototypes to be stored at the expense of the older ones. Some approaches related with this problem has been developed. We have developed a new approach of implementing a Recursive Neural Network in order to sob/e these kind of problems, the synaptic matrix is obtained superposing the components of the prototype vectors over the vértices of a Graph which may be interpreted as a coloring of the Graph. When training is finished the adjacency matrix of the Resulting Graph or matrix of weights presents certain properties for which it may be called a tetrahedral matrix The energy associated to any possible state of the net is represented as a point (a,b) in R2. Every one of the energy points associated with state-vectors having the same Hamming distance to the zero vector are located over the same energy Une in R2. The state-vector space may be then classified in n classes according to the n different possible distances firom any of the state-vectors to the zero vector The (n x n) matrix of weights may also be reduced to a n-vector of weights, in this way the computational time and the memory space required for obtaining the weights is optimized and simplified. In the recall stage, a parameter vectora is introduced, this parameter is used for controlling the capacity of the net: it may be proved that the bigger is the r, component of J, the lower is the number of fixed points located in the r¡ energy line. Once the capacity of the net has been controlled by the ex parameter, we introduced other parameter, obtained as the relative weight vector deviation parameter, in order to reduce the number of spurious states. All along the present text, we have also developed an example, which serves as a prove for the theoretical results, the algorithms are shown in a pseudocode language in the text, these algorithm so as the graphics have been developed also using the Mathematica 2.2. mathematical package which are shown in a supplementary volume of the text.

EDROMO: An accurate propagator for elliptical orbits in the perturbed two-body problem

EDROMO is a special perturbation method for the propagation of elliptical orbits in the perturbed two-body problem. The state vector consists of a time-element and seven spatial elements, and the independent variable is a generalized eccentric anomaly introduced through a Sundman time transformation. The key role in the derivation of the method is played by an intermediate reference frame which enjoys the property of remaining fixed in space as long as perturbations are absent. Three elements of EDROMO characterize the dynamics in the orbital frame and its orientation with respect to the intermediate frame, and the Euler parameters associated to the intermediate frame represent the other four spatial elements. The performance of EDromo has been analyzed by considering some typical problems in astrodynamics. In almost all our tests the method is the best among other popular formulations based on elements.

Methodologies for Collision Risk Computation = Metodologías para Cálculo de Riesgo de Colisión

Esta tesis aborda metodologías para el cálculo de riesgo de colisión de satélites. La minimización del riesgo de colisión se debe abordar desde dos puntos de vista distintos. Desde el punto de vista operacional, es necesario filtrar los objetos que pueden presentar un encuentro entre todos los objetos que comparten el espacio con un satélite operacional. Puesto que las órbitas, del objeto operacional y del objeto envuelto en la colisión, no se conocen perfectamente, la geometría del encuentro y el riesgo de colisión deben ser evaluados. De acuerdo con dicha geometría o riesgo, una maniobra evasiva puede ser necesaria para evitar la colisión. Dichas maniobras implican un consumo de combustible que impacta en la capacidad de mantenimiento orbital y por tanto de la visa útil del satélite. Por tanto, el combustible necesario a lo largo de la vida útil de un satélite debe ser estimado en fase de diseño de la misión para una correcta definición de su vida útil, especialmente para satélites orbitando en regímenes orbitales muy poblados. Los dos aspectos, diseño de misión y aspectos operacionales en relación con el riesgo de colisión están abordados en esta tesis y se resumen en la Figura 3. En relación con los aspectos relacionados con el diseño de misión (parte inferior de la figura), es necesario evaluar estadísticamente las características de de la población espacial y las teorías que permiten calcular el número medio de eventos encontrados por una misión y su capacidad de reducir riesgo de colisión. Estos dos aspectos definen los procedimientos más apropiados para reducir el riesgo de colisión en fase operacional. Este aspecto es abordado, comenzando por la teoría descrita en [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 e implementada por el autor de esta tesis en la herramienta ARES [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 proporcionada por ESA para la evaluación de estrategias de evitación de colisión. Esta teoría es extendida en esta tesis para considerar las características de los datos orbitales disponibles en las fases operacionales de un satélite (sección 4.3.3). Además, esta teoría se ha extendido para considerar riesgo máximo de colisión cuando la incertidumbre de las órbitas de objetos catalogados no es conocida (como se da el caso para los TLE), y en el caso de querer sólo considerar riesgo de colisión catastrófico (sección 4.3.2.3). Dichas mejoras se han incluido en la nueva versión de ARES [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 puesta a disposición a través de [SDUP,2014]R.60. En fase operacional, los catálogos que proporcionan datos orbitales de los objetos espaciales, son procesados rutinariamente, para identificar posibles encuentros que se analizan en base a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión para proponer maniobras de evasión. Actualmente existe una única fuente de datos públicos, el catálogo TLE (de sus siglas en inglés, Two Line Elements). Además, el Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) Americano proporciona mensajes con alertas de colisión (CSM) cuando el sistema de vigilancia americano identifica un posible encuentro. En función de los datos usados en fase operacional (TLE o CSM), la estrategia de evitación puede ser diferente debido a las características de dicha información. Es preciso conocer las principales características de los datos disponibles (respecto a la precisión de los datos orbitales) para estimar los posibles eventos de colisión encontrados por un satélite a lo largo de su vida útil. En caso de los TLE, cuya precisión orbital no es proporcionada, la información de precisión orbital derivada de un análisis estadístico se puede usar también en el proceso operacional así como en el diseño de la misión. En caso de utilizar CSM como base de las operaciones de evitación de colisiones, se conoce la precisión orbital de los dos objetos involucrados. Estas características se han analizado en detalle, evaluando estadísticamente las características de ambos tipos de datos. Una vez concluido dicho análisis, se ha analizado el impacto de utilizar TLE o CSM en las operaciones del satélite (sección 5.1). Este análisis se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. En dicho análisis, se proporcionan recomendaciones para distintas misiones (tamaño del satélite y régimen orbital) en relación con las estrategias de evitación de colisión para reducir el riesgo de colisión de manera significativa. Por ejemplo, en el caso de un satélite en órbita heliosíncrona en régimen orbital LEO, el valor típico del ACPL que se usa de manera extendida es 10-4. Este valor no es adecuado cuando los esquemas de evitación de colisión se realizan sobre datos TLE. En este caso, la capacidad de reducción de riesgo es prácticamente nula (debido a las grandes incertidumbres de los datos TLE) incluso para tiempos cortos de predicción. Para conseguir una reducción significativa del riesgo, sería necesario usar un ACPL en torno a 10-6 o inferior, produciendo unas 10 alarmas al año por satélite (considerando predicciones a un día) o 100 alarmas al año (con predicciones a tres días). Por tanto, la principal conclusión es la falta de idoneidad de los datos TLE para el cálculo de eventos de colisión. Al contrario, usando los datos CSM, debido a su mejor precisión orbital, se puede obtener una reducción significativa del riesgo con ACPL en torno a 10-4 (considerando 3 días de predicción). Incluso 5 días de predicción pueden ser considerados con ACPL en torno a 10-5. Incluso tiempos de predicción más largos se pueden usar (7 días) con reducción del 90% del riesgo y unas 5 alarmas al año (en caso de predicciones de 5 días, el número de maniobras se mantiene en unas 2 al año). La dinámica en GEO es diferente al caso LEO y hace que el crecimiento de las incertidumbres orbitales con el tiempo de propagación sea menor. Por el contrario, las incertidumbres derivadas de la determinación orbital son peores que en LEO por las diferencias en las capacidades de observación de uno y otro régimen orbital. Además, se debe considerar que los tiempos de predicción considerados para LEO pueden no ser apropiados para el caso de un satélite GEO (puesto que tiene un periodo orbital mayor). En este caso usando datos TLE, una reducción significativa del riesgo sólo se consigue con valores pequeños de ACPL, produciendo una alarma por año cuando los eventos de colisión se predicen a un día vista (tiempo muy corto para implementar maniobras de evitación de colisión).Valores más adecuados de ACPL se encuentran entre 5•10-8 y 10-7, muy por debajo de los valores usados en las operaciones actuales de la mayoría de las misiones GEO (de nuevo, no se recomienda en este régimen orbital basar las estrategias de evitación de colisión en TLE). Los datos CSM permiten una reducción de riesgo apropiada con ACPL entre 10-5 y 10-4 con tiempos de predicción cortos y medios (10-5 se recomienda para predicciones a 5 o 7 días). El número de maniobras realizadas sería una en 10 años de misión. Se debe notar que estos cálculos están realizados para un satélite de unos 2 metros de radio. En el futuro, otros sistemas de vigilancia espacial (como el programa SSA de la ESA), proporcionarán catálogos adicionales de objetos espaciales con el objetivo de reducir el riesgo de colisión de los satélites. Para definir dichos sistemas de vigilancia, es necesario identificar las prestaciones del catalogo en función de la reducción de riesgo que se pretende conseguir. Las características del catálogo que afectan principalmente a dicha capacidad son la cobertura (número de objetos incluidos en el catalogo, limitado principalmente por el tamaño mínimo de los objetos en función de las limitaciones de los sensores utilizados) y la precisión de los datos orbitales (derivada de las prestaciones de los sensores en relación con la precisión de las medidas y la capacidad de re-observación de los objetos). El resultado de dicho análisis (sección 5.2) se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. Este análisis no estaba inicialmente previsto durante la tesis, y permite mostrar como la teoría descrita en esta tesis, inicialmente definida para facilitar el diseño de misiones (parte superior de la figura 1) se ha extendido y se puede aplicar para otros propósitos como el dimensionado de un sistema de vigilancia espacial (parte inferior de la figura 1). La principal diferencia de los dos análisis se basa en considerar las capacidades de catalogación (precisión y tamaño de objetos observados) como una variable a modificar en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia), siendo fijas en el caso de un diseño de misión. En el caso de las salidas generadas en el análisis, todos los aspectos calculados en un análisis estadístico de riesgo de colisión son importantes para diseño de misión (con el objetivo de calcular la estrategia de evitación y la cantidad de combustible a utilizar), mientras que en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia, los aspectos más importantes son el número de maniobras y falsas alarmas (fiabilidad del sistema) y la capacidad de reducción de riesgo (efectividad del sistema). Adicionalmente, un sistema de vigilancia espacial debe ser caracterizado por su capacidad de evitar colisiones catastróficas (evitando así in incremento dramático de la población de basura espacial), mientras que el diseño de una misión debe considerar todo tipo de encuentros, puesto que un operador está interesado en evitar tanto las colisiones catastróficas como las letales. Del análisis de las prestaciones (tamaño de objetos a catalogar y precisión orbital) requeridas a un sistema de vigilancia espacial se concluye que ambos aspectos han de ser fijados de manera diferente para los distintos regímenes orbitales. En el caso de LEO se hace necesario observar objetos de hasta 5cm de radio, mientras que en GEO se rebaja este requisito hasta los 100 cm para cubrir las colisiones catastróficas. La razón principal para esta diferencia viene de las diferentes velocidades relativas entre los objetos en ambos regímenes orbitales. En relación con la precisión orbital, ésta ha de ser muy buena en LEO para poder reducir el número de falsas alarmas, mientras que en regímenes orbitales más altos se pueden considerar precisiones medias. En relación con los aspectos operaciones de la determinación de riesgo de colisión, existen varios algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo entre dos objetos espaciales. La Figura 2 proporciona un resumen de los casos en cuanto a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión y como se abordan en esta tesis. Normalmente se consideran objetos esféricos para simplificar el cálculo de riesgo (caso A). Este caso está ampliamente abordado en la literatura y no se analiza en detalle en esta tesis. Un caso de ejemplo se proporciona en la sección 4.2. Considerar la forma real de los objetos (caso B) permite calcular el riesgo de una manera más precisa. Un nuevo algoritmo es definido en esta tesis para calcular el riesgo de colisión cuando al menos uno de los objetos se considera complejo (sección 4.4.2). Dicho algoritmo permite calcular el riesgo de colisión para objetos formados por un conjunto de cajas, y se ha presentado en varias conferencias internacionales. Para evaluar las prestaciones de dicho algoritmo, sus resultados se han comparado con un análisis de Monte Carlo que se ha definido para considerar colisiones entre cajas de manera adecuada (sección 4.1.2.3), pues la búsqueda de colisiones simples aplicables para objetos esféricos no es aplicable a este caso. Este análisis de Monte Carlo se considera la verdad a la hora de calcular los resultados del algoritmos, dicha comparativa se presenta en la sección 4.4.4. En el caso de satélites que no se pueden considerar esféricos, el uso de un modelo de la geometría del satélite permite descartar eventos que no son colisiones reales o estimar con mayor precisión el riesgo asociado a un evento. El uso de estos algoritmos con geometrías complejas es más relevante para objetos de dimensiones grandes debido a las prestaciones de precisión orbital actuales. En el futuro, si los sistemas de vigilancia mejoran y las órbitas son conocidas con mayor precisión, la importancia de considerar la geometría real de los satélites será cada vez más relevante. La sección 5.4 presenta un ejemplo para un sistema de grandes dimensiones (satélite con un tether). Adicionalmente, si los dos objetos involucrados en la colisión tienen velocidad relativa baja (y geometría simple, Caso C en la Figura 2), la mayor parte de los algoritmos no son aplicables requiriendo implementaciones dedicadas para este caso particular. En esta tesis, uno de estos algoritmos presentado en la literatura [Patera, 2001]R.26 se ha analizado para determinar su idoneidad en distintos tipos de eventos (sección 4.5). La evaluación frete a un análisis de Monte Carlo se proporciona en la sección 4.5.2. Tras este análisis, se ha considerado adecuado para abordar las colisiones de baja velocidad. En particular, se ha concluido que el uso de algoritmos dedicados para baja velocidad son necesarios en función del tamaño del volumen de colisión proyectado en el plano de encuentro (B-plane) y del tamaño de la incertidumbre asociada al vector posición entre los dos objetos. Para incertidumbres grandes, estos algoritmos se hacen más necesarios pues la duración del intervalo en que los elipsoides de error de los dos objetos pueden intersecar es mayor. Dicho algoritmo se ha probado integrando el algoritmo de colisión para objetos con geometrías complejas. El resultado de dicho análisis muestra que este algoritmo puede ser extendido fácilmente para considerar diferentes tipos de algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión (sección 4.5.3). Ambos algoritmos, junto con el método Monte Carlo para geometrías complejas, se han implementado en la herramienta operacional de la ESA CORAM, que es utilizada para evaluar el riesgo de colisión en las actividades rutinarias de los satélites operados por ESA [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. Este hecho muestra el interés y relevancia de los algoritmos desarrollados para la mejora de las operaciones de los satélites. Dichos algoritmos han sido presentados en varias conferencias internacionales [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1. ABSTRACT This document addresses methodologies for computation of the collision risk of a satellite. Two different approaches need to be considered for collision risk minimisation. On an operational basis, it is needed to perform a sieve of possible objects approaching the satellite, among all objects sharing the space with an operational satellite. As the orbits of both, satellite and the eventual collider, are not perfectly known but only estimated, the miss-encounter geometry and the actual risk of collision shall be evaluated. In the basis of the encounter geometry or the risk, an eventual manoeuvre may be required to avoid the conjunction. Those manoeuvres will be associated to a reduction in the fuel for the mission orbit maintenance, and thus, may reduce the satellite operational lifetime. Thus, avoidance manoeuvre fuel budget shall be estimated, at mission design phase, for a better estimation of mission lifetime, especially for those satellites orbiting in very populated orbital regimes. These two aspects, mission design and operational collision risk aspects, are summarised in Figure 3, and covered along this thesis. Bottom part of the figure identifies the aspects to be consider for the mission design phase (statistical characterisation of the space object population data and theory computing the mean number of events and risk reduction capability) which will define the most appropriate collision avoidance approach at mission operational phase. This part is covered in this work by starting from the theory described in [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 and implemented by this author in ARES tool [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 provided by ESA for evaluation of collision avoidance approaches. This methodology has been now extended to account for the particular features of the available data sets in operational environment (section 4.3.3). Additionally, the formulation has been extended to allow evaluating risk computation approached when orbital uncertainty is not available (like the TLE case) and when only catastrophic collisions are subject to study (section 4.3.2.3). These improvements to the theory have been included in the new version of ESA ARES tool [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 and available through [SDUP,2014]R.60. At the operation phase, the real catalogue data will be processed on a routine basis, with adequate collision risk computation algorithms to propose conjunction avoidance manoeuvre optimised for every event. The optimisation of manoeuvres in an operational basis is not approached along this document. Currently, American Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue is the only public source of data providing orbits of objects in space to identify eventual conjunction events. Additionally, Conjunction Summary Message (CSM) is provided by Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) when the American system identifies a possible collision among satellites and debris. Depending on the data used for collision avoidance evaluation, the conjunction avoidance approach may be different. The main features of currently available data need to be analysed (in regards to accuracy) in order to perform estimation of eventual encounters to be found along the mission lifetime. In the case of TLE, as these data is not provided with accuracy information, operational collision avoidance may be also based on statistical accuracy information as the one used in the mission design approach. This is not the case for CSM data, which includes the state vector and orbital accuracy of the two involved objects. This aspect has been analysed in detail and is depicted in the document, evaluating in statistical way the characteristics of both data sets in regards to the main aspects related to collision avoidance. Once the analysis of data set was completed, investigations on the impact of those features in the most convenient avoidance approaches have been addressed (section 5.1). This analysis is published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. The analysis provides recommendations for different mission types (satellite size and orbital regime) in regards to the most appropriate collision avoidance approach for relevant risk reduction. The risk reduction capability is very much dependent on the accuracy of the catalogue utilized to identify eventual collisions. Approaches based on CSM data are recommended against the TLE based approach. Some approaches based on the maximum risk associated to envisaged encounters are demonstrated to report a very large number of events, which makes the approach not suitable for operational activities. Accepted Collision Probability Levels are recommended for the definition of the avoidance strategies for different mission types. For example for the case of a LEO satellite in the Sun-synchronous regime, the typically used ACPL value of 10-4 is not a suitable value for collision avoidance schemes based on TLE data. In this case the risk reduction capacity is almost null (due to the large uncertainties associated to TLE data sets, even for short time-to-event values). For significant reduction of risk when using TLE data, ACPL on the order of 10-6 (or lower) seems to be required, producing about 10 warnings per year and mission (if one-day ahead events are considered) or 100 warnings per year (for three-days ahead estimations). Thus, the main conclusion from these results is the lack of feasibility of TLE for a proper collision avoidance approach. On the contrary, for CSM data, and due to the better accuracy of the orbital information when compared with TLE, ACPL on the order of 10-4 allows to significantly reduce the risk. This is true for events estimated up to 3 days ahead. Even 5 days ahead events can be considered, but ACPL values down to 10-5 should be considered in such case. Even larger prediction times can be considered (7 days) for risk reduction about 90%, at the cost of larger number of warnings up to 5 events per year, when 5 days prediction allows to keep the manoeuvre rate in 2 manoeuvres per year. Dynamics of the GEO orbits is different to that in LEO, impacting on a lower increase of orbits uncertainty along time. On the contrary, uncertainties at short prediction times at this orbital regime are larger than those at LEO due to the differences in observation capabilities. Additionally, it has to be accounted that short prediction times feasible at LEO may not be appropriate for a GEO mission due to the orbital period being much larger at this regime. In the case of TLE data sets, significant reduction of risk is only achieved for small ACPL values, producing about a warning event per year if warnings are raised one day in advance to the event (too short for any reaction to be considered). Suitable ACPL values would lay in between 5•10-8 and 10-7, well below the normal values used in current operations for most of the GEO missions (TLE-based strategies for collision avoidance at this regime are not recommended). On the contrary, CSM data allows a good reduction of risk with ACPL in between 10-5 and 10-4 for short and medium prediction times. 10-5 is recommended for prediction times of five or seven days. The number of events raised for a suitable warning time of seven days would be about one in a 10-year mission. It must be noted, that these results are associated to a 2 m radius spacecraft, impact of the satellite size are also analysed within the thesis. In the future, other Space Situational Awareness Systems (SSA, ESA program) may provide additional catalogues of objects in space with the aim of reducing the risk. It is needed to investigate which are the required performances of those catalogues for allowing such risk reduction. The main performance aspects are coverage (objects included in the catalogue, mainly limited by a minimum object size derived from sensor performances) and the accuracy of the orbital data to accurately evaluate the conjunctions (derived from sensor performance in regards to object observation frequency and accuracy). The results of these investigations (section 5.2) are published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. This aspect was not initially foreseen as objective of the thesis, but it shows how the theory described in the thesis, initially defined for mission design in regards to avoidance manoeuvre fuel allocation (upper part of figure 1), is extended and serves for additional purposes as dimensioning a Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) system (bottom part of figure below). The main difference between the two approaches is the consideration of the catalogue features as part of the theory which are not modified (for the satellite mission design case) instead of being an input for the analysis (in the case of the SST design). In regards to the outputs, all the features computed by the statistical conjunction analysis are of importance for mission design (with the objective of proper global avoidance strategy definition and fuel allocation), whereas for the case of SST design, the most relevant aspects are the manoeuvre and false alarm rates (defining a reliable system) and the Risk Reduction capability (driving the effectiveness of the system). In regards to the methodology for computing the risk, the SST system shall be driven by the capacity of providing the means to avoid catastrophic conjunction events (avoiding the dramatic increase of the population), whereas the satellite mission design should consider all type of encounters, as the operator is interested on avoiding both lethal and catastrophic collisions. From the analysis of the SST features (object coverage and orbital uncertainty) for a reliable system, it is concluded that those two characteristics are to be imposed differently for the different orbital regimes, as the population level is different depending on the orbit type. Coverage values range from 5 cm for very populated LEO regime up to 100 cm in the case of GEO region. The difference on this requirement derives mainly from the relative velocity of the encounters at those regimes. Regarding the orbital knowledge of the catalogues, very accurate information is required for objects in the LEO region in order to limit the number of false alarms, whereas intermediate orbital accuracy can be considered for higher orbital regimes. In regards to the operational collision avoidance approaches, several collision risk algorithms are used for evaluation of collision risk of two pair of objects. Figure 2 provides a summary of the different collision risk algorithm cases and indicates how they are covered along this document. The typical case with high relative velocity is well covered in literature for the case of spherical objects (case A), with a large number of available algorithms, that are not analysed in detailed in this work. Only a sample case is provided in section 4.2. If complex geometries are considered (Case B), a more realistic risk evaluation can be computed. New approach for the evaluation of risk in the case of complex geometries is presented in this thesis (section 4.4.2), and it has been presented in several international conferences. The developed algorithm allows evaluating the risk for complex objects formed by a set of boxes. A dedicated Monte Carlo method has also been described (section 4.1.2.3) and implemented to allow the evaluation of the actual collisions among a large number of simulation shots. This Monte Carlo runs are considered the truth for comparison of the algorithm results (section 4.4.4). For spacecrafts that cannot be considered as spheres, the consideration of the real geometry of the objects may allow to discard events which are not real conjunctions, or estimate with larger reliability the risk associated to the event. This is of particular importance for the case of large spacecrafts as the uncertainty in positions of actual catalogues does not reach small values to make a difference for the case of objects below meter size. As the tracking systems improve and the orbits of catalogued objects are known more precisely, the importance of considering actual shapes of the objects will become more relevant. The particular case of a very large system (as a tethered satellite) is analysed in section 5.4. Additionally, if the two colliding objects have low relative velocity (and simple geometries, case C in figure above), the most common collision risk algorithms fail and adequate theories need to be applied. In this document, a low relative velocity algorithm presented in the literature [Patera, 2001]R.26 is described and evaluated (section 4.5). Evaluation through comparison with Monte Carlo approach is provided in section 4.5.2. The main conclusion of this analysis is the suitability of this algorithm for the most common encounter characteristics, and thus it is selected as adequate for collision risk estimation. Its performances are evaluated in order to characterise when it can be safely used for a large variety of encounter characteristics. In particular, it is found that the need of using dedicated algorithms depend on both the size of collision volume in the B-plane and the miss-distance uncertainty. For large uncertainties, the need of such algorithms is more relevant since for small uncertainties the encounter duration where the covariance ellipsoids intersect is smaller. Additionally, its application for the case of complex satellite geometries is assessed (case D in figure above) by integrating the developed algorithm in this thesis with Patera’s formulation for low relative velocity encounters. The results of this analysis show that the algorithm can be easily extended for collision risk estimation process suitable for complex geometry objects (section 4.5.3). The two algorithms, together with the Monte Carlo method, have been implemented in the operational tool CORAM for ESA which is used for the evaluation of collision risk of ESA operated missions, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. This fact shows the interest and relevance of the developed algorithms for improvement of satellite operations. The algorithms have been presented in several international conferences, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1.