Sea-level rise in Hawaii: Implications for future shoreline locations and Hawaii coastal management

Management of coastal development in Hawaii is based on the location of the certified shoreline, which is representative of the upper limit of marine inundation within the last several years. Though the certified shoreline location is significantly more variable than long-term erosion indicators, its migration will still follow the coastline's general trend. The long-term migration of Hawaii’s coasts will be significantly controlled by rising sea level. However, land use decisions adjacent to the shoreline and the shape and nature of the nearshore environment are also important controls to coastal migration. Though each of the islands has experienced local sea-level rise over the course of the last century, there are still locations across the islands of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, which show long- term accretion or anomalously high erosion rates relative to their regions. As a result, engineering rules of thumb such as the Brunn rule do not always predict coastal migration and beach profile equilibrium in Hawaii. With coastlines facing all points of the compass rose, anthropogenic alteration of the coasts, complex coastal environments such as coral reefs, and the limited capacity to predict coastal change, Hawaii will require a more robust suite of proactive coastal management policies to weather future changes to its coastline. Continuing to use the current certified shoreline, adopting more stringent coastal setback rules similar to Kauai County, adding realistic sea-level rise components for all types of coastal planning, and developing regional beach management plans are some of the recommended adaptation strategies for Hawaii. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Building a sustainable community of coastal leaders to deal with sea level rise and inundation

Sea level rise and inundation were stated to be the highest priorities in the community-developed Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy in 2005. Although they remain stated priorities, very few resources have been allocated towards this challenge. Inundation poses a substantial risk to many coastal communities, and the risk is projected to increase because of continued development, changes in the frequency and intensity of inundation events, and acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise along our vulnerable shorelines. (PDF contains 4 pages) There is an increasing urgency for federal and state governments to focus on the local and regional levels and consistently provide the information, tools, and methods necessary for adaptation. Calls for action at all levels acknowledge that a viable response must engage federal, state and local expertise, perspectives, and resources in a coordinated and collaborative effort. A workshop held in December 2000 on coastal inundation and sea level rise proposes a shared framework that can help guide where investments should be made to enable states and local governments to assess impacts and initiate adaptation strategies over the next decade.

Improving reporting of uncertainties in sea level rise assessments

Sea level rise (SLR) assessments are commonly used to identify the extent that coastal populations are at risk to flooding. However, the data and assumptions used to develop these assessments contain numerous sources and types of uncertainty, which limit confidence in the accuracy of modeled results. This study illustrates how the intersection of uncertainty in digital elevation models (DEMs) and SLR lead to a wide range of modeled outcomes. SLR assessments are then reviewed to identify the extent that uncertainty is documented in peer-reviewed articles. The paper concludes by discussing priorities needed to further understand SLR impacts. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Coastal plant growth and CO2 enrichment: Can the productivity of black needle rush keep pace with sea level rise?

The rate of sea level change has varied considerably over geological time, with rapid increases (0.25 cm yr-1) at the end of the last ice age to more modest increases over the last 4,000 years (0.04 cm yr-1; Hendry 1993). Due to anthropogenic contributions to climate change, however, the rate of sea level rise is expected to increase between 0.10 and 0.25 cm year-1 for many coastal areas (Warrick et al. 1996). Notwithstanding, it has been predicted that over the next 100 years, sea levels along the northeastern coast of North Carolina may increase by an astonishing 0.8 m (0.8 cm yr-1); through a combination of sea-level rise and coastal subsidence (Titus and Richman 2001; Parham et al. 2006). As North Carolina ranks third in the United States with land at or just above sea level, any additional sea rise may promote further deterioration of vital coastal wetland systems. (PDF contains 4 pages)

New measurements on the absolute cosmic ray ionization from sea level to 1540 kilometers altitude

An air filled ionization chamber has been constructed with a volume of 552 liters and a wall consisting of 12.7 mg/cm² of plastic wrapped over a rigid, lightweight aluminum frame. A calibration in absolute units, independent of previous Caltech ion chamber calibrations, was applied to a sealed Neher electrometer for use in this chamber. The new chamber was flown along with an older, argon filled, balloon type chamber in a C-135 aircraft from 1,000 to 40,000 feet altitude, and other measurements of sea level cosmic ray ionization were made, resulting in the value of 2.60 ± .03 ion pairs/cm³ sec atm) at sea level. The calibrations of the two instruments were found to agree within 1 percent, and the airplane data were consistent with previous balloon measurements in the upper atmosphere. Ionization due to radon gas in the atmosphere was investigated. Absolute ionization data in the lower atmosphere have been compared with results of other observers, and discrepancies have been discussed.

Data from a polar orbiting ion chamber on the OGO-II, IV spacecraft have been analyzed. The problem of radioactivity produced on the spacecraft during passes through high fluxes of trapped protons has been investigated, and some corrections determined. Quiet time ionization averages over the polar regions have been plotted as function of altitude, and an analytical fit is made to the data that gives a value of 10.4 ± 2.3 percent for the fractional part of the ionization at the top of the atmosphere due to splash albedo particles, although this result is shown to depend on an assumed angular distribution for the albedo particles. Comparisons with other albedo measurements are made. The data are shown to be consistent with balloon and interplanetary ionization measurements. The position of the cosmic ray knee is found to exhibit an altitude dependence, a North-South effect, and a small local time variation.

Sea level rise adaptation: emerging lessons for local policy development

Many coastal communities across the United States are beginning to plan for climate-related sea level rise. While impacts and solutions will vary with local conditions, jurisdictions which have begun this process seem to pass through three common stages when developing policy for local sea level rise adaptation: l) building awareness about local sea level rise threats, 2) undertaking analyses of local vulnerabilities, and 3) developing plans and policies to deal with these vulnerabilities. The purpose of this paper is to help advance community dialogue and further inform local decision-makers about key elements and steps for addressing climate-related sea level rise. It summarizes the results of a project the Marine Policy Institute (MPI) undertook during 2011-12 to review experiences from fourteen U.S. coastal jurisdictions representing a variety of city, county, and state efforts with sea level adaptation. There are many more initiatives underway than those reflected in this sample, but the “focus jurisdictions” were selected because of the extensive information publically available on their experiences and lessons being learned that could provide insights for coastal communities, especially in Southwest Florida.

Tidal and sea level changes at Jeddah, Red Sea

Tidal and sea level changes during 1991 at a coastal station (Jeddah) in the central part of the Red Sea are investigated. Analysis shows higher sea levels in winter and lower in summer. The amplitude of change at Jeddah is above 50cm. Analysis of wind stress at Jeddah indicates an insignificant contribution of the cross-shore component, while a major part of the changes in the sea level can be accounted for by the long-shore component.

Phylogeography of the freshwater catfish Hemibagrus guttatus (Siluriformes, Bagridae): Implications for South China biogeography and influence of sea-level changes

National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) ; [2007CB411600]; [30530120]

Climate change, sea level rise and integrated coastal zone management: An IPCC approach

Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme. As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment. In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced.

timng of the last glacial maximum from observed sea level minima

During the Last Glacial Maximum, ice sheets covered large areas in northern latitudes, and global temperatures were significantly lower than today. But few direct estimates exist of the volume of the ice sheets, or the timing and rates of change during their advance and retreat. Here we analyze four distinct sediment facies in the shallow, tectonically stable Bonaparte Gulf, Australia - each of which is characteristic of a distinct range in sea level - to estimate the maximum volume of land-based ice during the last glaciation and the timing of the initial melting phase. We use faunal assemblages and preservation status of the sediments to distinguish open marine, shallow marine, marginal marine and brackish conditions, and estimate the timing and the mass of the ice sheets using radiocarbon dating and glacio-hydroisostatic modelling. Our results indicate that from at least 22,000 to 19,000 (calendar) years before present, land-based ice volume was at its maximum, exceeding today's grounded ice sheets by 52.5 x 10 exp 6 cu km. A rapid decrease in ice volume by about 10 percent within a few hundred years terminated the Last Glacial Maximum at 19,000 +/- 250 years.

Dynamics of intraseasonal sea level and thermocline variability in the equatorial Atlantic during 2002-03

Satellite and in situ observations in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean during 2002-03 show dominant spectral peaks at 40-60 days and secondary peaks at 10-40 days in sea level and thermocline within the intraseasonal period band (10-80 days). A detailed investigation of the dynamics of the intraseasonal variations is carried out using an ocean general circulation model, namely, the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Two parallel experiments are performed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin for the period 2000-03: one is forced by daily scatterometer winds from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite together with other forcing fields, and the other is forced by the low-passed 80-day version of the above fields. To help in understanding the role played by the wind-driven equatorial waves, a linear continuously stratified ocean model is also used. Within 3 degrees S-3 degrees N of the equatorial region, the strong 40-60-day sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and thermocline variability result mainly from the first and second baroclinic modes equatorial Kelvin waves that are forced by intraseasonal zonal winds, with the second baroclinic mode playing a more important role. Sharp 40-50-day peaks of zonal and meridional winds appear in both the QuikSCAT and Pilot Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) data for the period 2002-03, and they are especially strong in 2002. Zonal wind anomaly in the central-western equatorial basin for the period 2000-06 is significantly correlated with SSHA across the equatorial basin, with simultaneous/ lag correlation ranging from-0.62 to 0.74 above 95% significance. Away from the equator (3 degrees-5 degrees N), however, sea level and thermocline variations in the 40-60-day band are caused largely by tropical instability waves (TIWs). On 10-40-day time scales and west of 10 degrees W, the spectral power of sea level and thermocline appears to be dominated by TIWs within 5 degrees S-5 degrees N of the equatorial region. The wind-driven circulation, however, also provides a significant contribution. Interestingly, east of 10 W, SSHA and thermocline variations at 10 40- day periods result almost entirely from wind-driven equatorial waves. During the boreal spring of 2002 when TIWs are weak, Kelvin waves dominate the SSHA across the equatorial basin (2 degrees S-2 degrees N). The observed quasi-biweekly Yanai waves are excited mainly by the quasi-biweekly meridional winds, and they contribute significantly to the SSHA and thermocline variations in 1 degrees-5 degrees N and 1 degrees-5 degrees S regions.

Long-Wave Dynamics of Sea Level Variations during Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Long-wave dynamics of the interannual variations of the equatorial Indian Ocean circulation are studied using an ocean general circulation model forced by the assimilated surface winds and heat flux of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The simulation has reproduced the sea level anomalies of the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon altimeter observations well. The equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves decomposed from the model simulation show that western boundary reflections provide important negative feedbacks to the evolution of the upwelling currents off the Java coast during Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. Two downwelling Kelvin wave pulses are generated at the western boundary during IOD events: the first is reflected from the equatorial Rossby waves and the second from the off-equatorial Rossby waves in the southern Indian Ocean. The upwelling in the eastern basin during the 1997-98 IOD event is weakened by the first Kelvin wave pulse and terminated by the second. In comparison, the upwelling during the 1994 IOD event is terminated by the first Kelvin wave pulse because the southeasterly winds off the Java coast are weak at the end of 1994. The atmospheric intraseasonal forcing, which plays an important role in inducing Java upwelling during the early stage of an IOD event, is found to play a minor role in terminating the upwelling off the Java coast because the intraseasonal winds are either weak or absent during the IOD mature phase. The equatorial wave analyses suggest that the upwelling off the Java coast during IOD events is terminated primarily by western boundary reflections.

Analysis of the sea-level variability along the Chinese coast and estimation of the impact of a CO2-perturbed atmospheric circulation

The relationship between monthly sea-level data measured at stations located along the Chinese coast and concurrent large-scale atmospheric forcing in the period 1960-1990 is examined. It is found that sea-level varies quite coherently along the whole coast, despite the geographical extension of the station set. A canonical correlation analysis between sea-level and sea-level pressure (SLP) indicates that a great part of the sea-level variability can be explained by the action of the wind stress on the ocean surface. The relationship between sea-level and sea-level pressure is analyzed separately for the summer and winter half-years. In winter, one factor affecting sea-level variability at all stations is the SLP contrast between the continent and the Pacific Ocean, hence the intensity of the winter Monsoon circulation. Another factor that affects coherently all stations is the intensity of the zonal circulation at mid-latitudes. In the summer half year, on the other hand, the influence of SLP on sea-level is spatially less coherent: the stations in the Yellow Sea are affected by a more localized circulation anomaly pattern, whereas the rest of the stations is more directly connected to the intensity of the zonal circulation. Based on this analysis, statistical models (different for summer and winter) to hindcast coastal sealevel anomalies from the large-scale SLP field are formulated. These models have been tested by fitting their internal parameters in a test period and reproducing reasonably the sea-level evolution in an independent period. These statistical models are also used to estimate the contribution of the changes of the atmospheric circulation on sea-level along the Chinese coast in an altered climate. For this purpose the ouput of 150 year-long experiment with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model ECHAM1-LSG has been analyzed, in which the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was continuously increased from 1940 until 2090, according to the Scenario A projection of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change. In this experiment the meridional (zonal) circulation relevant for sea-level tends to become weaker (stronger) in the winter half year and stronger (weaker) in summer. The estimated contribution of this atmospheric circulation changes to coastal sea-level is of the order of a few centimeters at the end of the integration, being in winter negative in the Yellow Sea and positive in the China Sea with opposite signs in the summer half-year.

COASTAL SEA-LEVEL AND THE LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE STATE - A DOWNSCALING EXERCISE FOR THE JAPANESE ISLANDS

A major problem which is envisaged in the course of man-made climate change is sea-level rise. The global aspect of the thermal expansion of the sea water likely is reasonably well simulated by present day climate models; the variation of sea level, due to variations of the regional atmospheric forcing and of the large-scale oceanic circulation, is not adequately simulated by a global climate model because of insufficient spatial resolution. A method to infer the coastal aspects of sea level change is to use a statistical ''downscaling'' strategy: a linear statistical model is built upon a multi-year data set of local sea level data and of large-scale oceanic and/or atmospheric data such as sea-surface temperature or sea-level air-pressure. We apply this idea to sea level along the Japanese coast. The sea level is related to regional and North Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level air pressure. Two relevant processes are identified. One process is the local wind set-up of water due to regional low-frequency wind anomalies; the other is a planetary scale atmosphere-ocean interaction which takes place in the eastern North Pacific.

Diversities in hepatic HIF-1, IGF-I/IGFBP-1, LDH/ICD, and their mRNA expressions induced by CoCl2 in Qinghai-Tibetan plateau mammals and sea level mice

Ochotona curzoniae and Microtus oeconomus are the native mammals living on the Qinghai-TibetanPlateau of China. The molecular mechanisms of their acclimatization to the Plateau-hypoxia remain unclear. Expressions of hepatic hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1 alpha, insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I)/IGF binding protein (BP)-1(IGFBP-1; including genes), and key metabolic enzymatic genes [lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)-A/isocitrate dehydrogenase (ICD)] are compared in Qinghai-Tibetan- Plateau mammals andsea- level mice after injection of CoCl2 (20, 40, or 60 mg/ kg) and normobaric hypoxia (16.0% O-2, 10.8% O-2, and 8.0% O-2) for 6 h, tested by histochemistry, Western blot analysis, ELISA, and RT-PCR. Major results are CoCl2 markedly increased 1) HIF-1 alpha only in mice, 2) hepatic and circulatory IGF-I in M. oeconomus, 3) hepatic IGFBP-1 in mice and O. curzoniae, and 4) LDH-A but reduced ICD mRNA in mice (CoCl2 20 mg/kg) but were unchanged in the Tibetan mammals. Normobaric hypoxia markedly 1) increased HIF-1 alpha and LDH-A mRNA in mice and M. oeconomus (8.0% O-2) not in O. curzoniae, and 2) reduced ICD mRNA in mice and M. oeconomus (8.0% O-2) not in O. curzoniae. Results suggest that 1) HIF-1 alpha responsiveness to hypoxia is distinct in lowland mice and plateau mammals, reflecting a diverse tolerance of the three species to hypoxia; 2) CoCl2 induces diversities in HIF-1, IGF-I/IGFBP-1 protein or genes in mice, M. oeconomus, and O. curzoniae. In contrast, HIF-1 mediates IGFBP-1 transcription only in mice and in M. oeconomus (subjected to severe hypoxia); 3) differences in IGF-I/IGFBP-1 expressions induced by CoCl2 reflect significant diversities in hormone regulation and cell protection from damage; and 4) activation of anaerobic glycolysis and reduction of Krebs cycle represents strategies of lowland-animals vs. the stable metabolic homeostasis of plateau- acclimatized mammals.