Hybrid constraint programming and metaheuristic methods for large scale optimization problems

This work presents hybrid Constraint Programming (CP) and metaheuristic methods for the solution of Large Scale Optimization Problems; it aims at integrating concepts and mechanisms from the metaheuristic methods to a CP-based tree search environment in order to exploit the advantages of both approaches. The modeling and solution of large scale combinatorial optimization problem is a topic which has arisen the interest of many researcherers in the Operations Research field; combinatorial optimization problems are widely spread in everyday life and the need of solving difficult problems is more and more urgent. Metaheuristic techniques have been developed in the last decades to effectively handle the approximate solution of combinatorial optimization problems; we will examine metaheuristics in detail, focusing on the common aspects of different techniques. Each metaheuristic approach possesses its own peculiarities in designing and guiding the solution process; our work aims at recognizing components which can be extracted from metaheuristic methods and re-used in different contexts. In particular we focus on the possibility of porting metaheuristic elements to constraint programming based environments, as constraint programming is able to deal with feasibility issues of optimization problems in a very effective manner. Moreover, CP offers a general paradigm which allows to easily model any type of problem and solve it with a problem-independent framework, differently from local search and metaheuristic methods which are highly problem specific. In this work we describe the implementation of the Local Branching framework, originally developed for Mixed Integer Programming, in a CP-based environment. Constraint programming specific features are used to ease the search process, still mantaining an absolute generality of the approach. We also propose a search strategy called Sliced Neighborhood Search, SNS, that iteratively explores slices of large neighborhoods of an incumbent solution by performing CP-based tree search and encloses concepts from metaheuristic techniques. SNS can be used as a stand alone search strategy, but it can alternatively be embedded in existing strategies as intensification and diversification mechanism. In particular we show its integration within the CP-based local branching. We provide an extensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approaches on instances of the Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem and of the Asymmetric Traveling Salesman Problem with Time Windows. The proposed approaches achieve good results on practical size problem, thus demonstrating the benefit of integrating metaheuristic concepts in CP-based frameworks.

Sustainable development in Darjeeling Hills, India : ecological and socio-economic aspects for small-scale farmers with supportive observations from Kanagawa, Japan

Organic farming means a holistic application of agricultural land-use, hence, this study aimed to assess ecological and socio-economic aspects that show benefits of the strategy and achievements of organic farming in comparison to conventional farming in Darjeeling District, State of West Bengal, India and Kanagawa Prefecture/Kanto in Central Japan. The objective of this study has been empirically analysed on aspects of crop diversity, yield, income and sales prices in the two study regions, where 50 households each, i.e. in total 100 households were interviewed at farm-level. Therefore, the small sample size does not necessarily reflect the broad-scale of the use and benefit of organic farming in both regions. The problems faced in mountainous regions in terms of agriculture and livelihoods for small-scale farmers, which are most affected and dependant on their immediate environment, such as low yields, income and illegal felling leading to soil erosion and landslides, are analyzed. Furthermore, factors such as climate, soils, vegetation and relief equally play an important role for these farmers, in terms of land-use. To supplement and improve the income of farmers, local NGOs have introduced organic farming and high value organic cash crops such as ginger, tea, orange and cardamom and small income generating means (floriculture, apiary etc.). For non-certified and certified organic products the volume is given for India, while for Japan only certified organic production figures are given, as there are several definitions for organic in Japan. Hence, prior to the implementation of organic laws and standards, even reduced chemical input was sold as non-certified organic. Furthermore, the distribution and certification system of both countries are explained in detail, including interviews with distribution companies and cooperatives. Supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are helpful and practical suggestions for organic farmers in Darjeeling District. Most of these are simple and applicable soil management measures, natural insect repelling applications and describe the direct marketing system practiced in Japan. The former two include compost, intercropping, Effective Microorganisms (EM), clover, rice husk charcoal and wood vinegar. More supportive observations have been made at organic and biodynamic tea estates in Darjeeling District, which use citronella, neem, marigold, leguminous and soil binding plants for soil management and natural insect control. Due to the close ties between farmers and consumers in Japan, certification is often neither necessary nor wanted by the producers. They have built a confidence relationship with their customers; thus, such measures are simply not required. Another option is group certification, instead of the expensive individual certification. The former aims at lower costs for farmers who have formed a cooperative or a farmers' group. Consumer awareness for organic goods is another crucial aspect to help improve the situation of organic farmers. Awareness is slightly more advanced in Kanto than in Darjeeling District, as it is improved due to the close (sales) ties between farmers and consumers in Kanto. Interviews conducted with several such cooperatives and companies underline the positive system of TEIKEI. The introduction of organic farming in the study regions has shown positive effects for those involved, even though it still in its beginning stages in Darjeeling District. This study was only partly able to assess the benefits of organic agriculture at its present level for Darjeeling District, while more positively for the organic farmers of Kanto. The organic farming practice needs further improvement, encouragement and monitoring for the Darjeeling District farmers by locals, consumers, NGOs and politicians. The supportive observations from Kanagawa Prefecture and the Kanto region are a small step in this direction, showing how, simple soil improvements and thus, yield and income increases, as well as direct sales options can enhance the livelihood of organic farmers without destroying their environment and natural resources.

Ecosystem service trade-offs and stakeholder claims - a meso-scale study from a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar has been labelled a global biodiversity hotspot due to its extremely high rates of endemic species which are heavily threatened by accelerated deforestation rates and landscape change. The traditional practice of shifting cultivation or "tavy" used by the majority of land users in this area to produce subsistence rice is commonly blamed for these threats. A wide range of stakeholders ranging from conservation to development agencies, and from the private to the public sector has therefore been involved in trying to find solutions to protect the remaining forest fragments and to increase agricultural production. Consequently, provisioning, regulating and socio-cultural services of this forest-mosaic landscape are fundamentally altered leading to trade-offs between them and consequently new winners and losers amongst the stakeholders at different scales. However, despite a growing amount of evidence from case studies analysing local changes, the regional dynamics of the landscape and their contribution to such trade-offs remain poorely understood. This study therefore aims at using generalised landscape units as a base for the assessment of multi-level stakeholder claims on ecosystem services to inform negotiation, planning and decision making at a meso-scale. The presented study applies a mixed-method approach combining remote sensing, GIS and socio-economic methods to reveal current landscape dynamics, their change over time and the corresponding ecosystem service trade-offs induced by diverse stakeholder claims on the regional level. In a first step a new regional land cover classification for three points in time (1995, 2005 and 2011) was conducted including agricultural classes characteristic for shifting cultivation systems. Secondly, a novel GIS approach, termed “landscape mosaics approach” originally developed to assess dynamics of shifting cultivation landscapes in Laos was applied. Through this approach generalised landscape mosaics were generated allowing for a better understanding of changes in land use intensities instead of land cover. As a next step we will try to use these landscape units as proxies to map provisioning and regulating ecosystem services throughout the region. Through the overlay with other regional background data such as accessibility and population density and information from a region-wide stakeholder analysis, multiscale trade-offs between different services will be highlighted. The trade-offs observed on the regional scale will then be validated through a socio-economic ground-truthing within selected sites at the local scale. We propose that such meso-scale knowledge is required by all stakeholders involved in decision making towards sustainable development of north-eastern Madagascar.

An initiative for participatory monitoring of large scale acquisitions: Opportunities and results thus far

Increasing commercial pressures on land are provoking fundamental and far-reaching changes in the relationships between people and land. Much knowledge on land-oriented investments projects currently comes from the media. Although this provides a good starting point, lack of transparency and rapidly changing contexts mean that this is often unreliable. The International Land Coalition, in partnership with Oxfam Novib, Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), University of Pretoria, Centre for Development and Environment of the University of Bern (CDE), and GIZ, started to compile an inventory of land-related investments. This project aims to better understand the extent, trends and impacts of land-related investments by supporting an ongoing and systematic stocktaking exercise of the various investment projects currently taking place worldwide. It involves a large number of organizations and individuals working in areas where land transactions are being made, and able to provide details of such investments. The project monitors land transactions in rural areas that imply a transformation of land use rights from communities and smallholders to commercial use, and are made both by domestic and foreign investors (private actors, governments, government-back private investors). The focus is on investments for food or agrofuel production, timber extraction, carbon trading, mineral extraction, conservation and tourism. A novel way of using ITC to document land acquisitions in a spatially explicit way and by using an approach called “crowdsourcing” is being developed. This approach will allow actors to share information and knowledge directly and at any time on a public platform, where it will be scrutinized in terms of reliability and cross checked with other sources. Up to now, over 1200 deals have been recorded across 96 countries. Details of such transactions have been classified in a matrix and distributed to over 350 contacts worldwide for verification. The verified information has been geo-referenced and represented in two global maps. This is an open database enabling a continued monitoring exercise and the improvement of data accuracy. More information will be released over time. The opportunities arise from overcoming constraints by incomplete information by proposing a new way of collecting, enhancing and sharing information and knowledge in a more democratic and transparent manner. The intention is to develop interactive knowledge platform where any interested person can share and access information on land deals, their link to involved stakeholders, and their embedding into a geographical context. By making use of new ICT technologies that are more and more in the reach of local stakeholders, as well as open access and web-based spatial information systems, it will become possible to create a dynamic database containing spatial explicit data. Feeding in data by a large number of stakeholders, increasingly also by means of new mobile ITC technologies, will open up new opportunities to analyse, monitor and assess highly dynamic trends of land acquisition and rural transformation.

Local Perceptions and Vertical Perspectives of a Large Scale Land Acquisition Project in Northern Sierra Leone

Despite increased scientific interest in the phenomenon of large-scale land acquisitions (LSLA), accurate data on implementation processes remain sparse. This paper aims at filling this gap by providing empirical in-depth knowledge on the case of the Swiss-based Addax Bioenergy Ltd. in Sierra Leone. Extensive fieldwork allowed the interdisciplinary research team 1) the identification of different actors that are necessary for the implementation on a vertical level and 2) the documentation of the heterogeneous group of project affected people’s perceptions and strategies on a horizontal level. Findings reveal that even a project labeled as best-practice example by UN agencies triggers a number of problematic processes for affected communities. The loss of natural resources that comes along with the land lease and the lack of employment possibilities mostly affects already vulnerable groups. On the other hand, strategies and resistance of local people also affect the project implementation. This shows that the horizontal and vertical levels are not separate entities. They are linked by social networks, social interactions, and means of communication and both levels take part in shaping the project’s impacts.

Marginal lands or marginal people? Analysing key processes determining the outcomes of large-scale land acquisitions in Lao PDR and Cambodia

This chapter aims to overcome the gap existing between case study research, which typically provides qualitative and process-based insights, and national or global inventories that typically offer spatially explicit and quantitative analysis of broader patterns, and thus to present adequate evidence for policymaking regarding large-scale land acquisitions. Therefore, the chapter links spatial patterns of land acquisitions to underlying implementation processes of land allocation. Methodologically linking the described patterns and processes proved difficult, but we have identified indicators that could be added to inventories and monitoring systems to make linkage possible. Combining complementary approaches in this way may help to determine where policy space exists for more sustainable governance of land acquisitions, both geographically and with regard to processes of agrarian transitions. Our spatial analysis revealed two general patterns: (i) relatively large forestry-related acquisitions that target forested landscapes and often interfere with semi-subsistence farming systems; and (ii) smaller agriculture-related acquisitions that often target existing cropland and also interfere with semi-subsistence systems. Furthermore, our meta-analysis of land acquisition implementation processes shows that authoritarian, top-down processes dominate. Initially, the demands of powerful regional and domestic investors tend to override socio-ecological variables, local actors’ interests, and land governance mechanisms. As available land grows scarce, however, and local actors gain experience dealing with land acquisitions, it appears that land investments begin to fail or give way to more inclusive, bottom-up investment models.

Genetic composition, genetic diversity, and small-scale environmental variation matter for the experimental reintroduction of a rare plant

Aims Reintroduction has become an important tool for the management of endangered plant species. We tested the little-explored effects of small-scale environmental variation, genotypic composition (i.e. identity of genotypes), and genotypic diversity on the population survival of the regionally rare clonal plant Ranunculus reptans. For this species of periodically inundated lakeshores genetic differentiation had been reported between populations and between short-flooded and long-flooded microsites within populations.Methods We established 306 experimental test populations at a previously unoccupied lake shore, comprising either monocultures of 32 genotypes, mixtures of genotypes within populations or mixtures of genotypes between populations. In 2000, three years after planting out at the experimental site, a long-lasting flood caused the death of half of the experimental populations. In 2003, an extreme drought resulted in the lowest summer water levels ever measured.Important findings Despite these climatic extremes, 27 of the established populations survived until the end of the experiment in December 2003. The success of experimental populations largely differed between microsites. Moreover, the success of genotype monocultures depended on genotype and source population. Genetic differentiation between microsites played a minor role for the success of reintroduction. After the flood, populations planted with genotypes from different source populations increased in abundance, whereas populations with genotypes from single source populations and genotype monocultures decreased. We conclude that sources for reintroductions need to be selected carefully. Moreover, mixtures of plants from different populations appear to be the best choice for successful reintroduction, at least in unpredictably varying environments.

Large-scale dust jets in the coma of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko as seen by the OSIRIS instrument onboard Rosetta

Context. During the most recent perihelion passage in 2009 of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P), ground-based observations showed an anisotropic dust coma where jet-like features were detected at similar to 1.3 AU from the Sun. The current perihelion passage is exceptional as the Rosetta spacecraft is monitoring the nucleus activity since March 2014, when a clear dust coma was already surrounding the nucleus at 4.3 AU from the Sun. Subsequently, the OSIRIS camera also witnessed an outburst in activity between April 27 and 30, and since mid-July, the dust coma at rh similar to 3.7-3.6 AU preperihelion is clearly non-isotropic, pointing to the existence of dust jet-like features. Aims. We aim to ascertain on the nucleus surface the origin of the dust jet-like features detected as early as in mid-July 2014. This will help to establish how the localized comet nucleus activity compares with that seen in previous apparitions and will also help following its evolution as the comet approaches its perihelion, at which phase most of the jets were detected from ground-based observations. Determining these areas also allows locating them in regions on the nucleus with spectroscopic or geomorphological distinct characteristics. Methods. Three series of dust images of comet 67P obtained with the Wide Angle Camera (WAC) of the OSIRIS instrument onboard the Rosetta spacecraft were processed with different enhancement techniques. This was made to clearly show the existence of jet-like features in the dust coma, whose appearance toward the observer changed as a result of the rotation of the comet nucleus and of the changing observing geometry from the spacecraft. The position angles of these features in the coma together with information on the observing geometry, nucleus shape, and rotation, allowed us to determine the most likely locations on the nucleus surface where the jets originate from. Results. Geometrical tracing of jet sources indicates that the activity of the nucleus of 67P gave rise during July and August 2014 to large-scale jet-like features from the Hapi, Hathor, Anuket, and Aten regions, confirming that active regions may be present on the nucleus localized at 60. northern latitude as deduced from previous comet apparitions. There are also hints that large-scale jets observed from the ground are possibly composed, at their place of origin on the nucleus surface, of numerous small-scale features.

Development and preliminary validation of the cancer family impact scale for colorectal cancer

This study aimed to develop and validate The Cancer Family Impact Scale (CFIS), an instrument for use in studies investigating relationships among family factors and colorectal cancer (CRC) screening when family history is a risk factor. We used existing data to develop the measure from 1,285 participants (637 families) across the United States who were in the Johns Hopkins Colon Cancer Genetic Testing study. Participants were 94% white with an average age of 50.1 years, and 60% were women. None had a personal CRC history, and eighty percent had 1 FDR with CRC and 20% had more than one FDR with CRC. The study had three aims: (1) to identify the latent factors underlying the CFIS via exploratory factor analysis (EFA); (2) to confirm the findings of the EFA via confirmatory factor analysis (CFA); and (3) to assess the reliability of the scale via Cronbach's alpha. Exploratory analyses were performed on a split half of the sample, and the final model was confirmed on the other half. The EFA suggested the CFIS was an 18-item measure with 5 latent constructs: (1) NEGATIVE: negative effects of cancer on the family; (2) POSITIVE: positive effects of cancer on the family; (3) COMMUNICATE: how families communicate about cancer; (4) FLOW: how information about cancer is conveyed in families; and (5) NORM: how individuals react to family norms about cancer. CFA on the holdout sample showed the CFIS to have a reasonably good fit (Chi-square = 389.977, df = 122, RMSEA= 0.058 (.052-.065), CFI=.902, TLI=.877, GF1=.939). The overall reliability of the scale was α=0.65. The reliability of the subscales was: (1) NEGATIVE α = 0.682; (2) POSITIVE α = 0.686; (3) COMMUNICATE α = 0.723; (4) FLOW α = 0.467; and (5) NORM α = 0.732. ^ We concluded the CFIS to be a good measure with most fit levels over 0.90. The CFIS could be used to compare theoretically driven hypotheses about the pathways through which family factors could influence health behavior among unaffected individuals at risk due to family history, and also aid in the development and evaluation of cancer prevention interventions including a family component. ^

Large scale multiphysics modeling of neurites

Situado en el límite entre Ingeniería, Informática y Biología, la mecánica computacional de las neuronas aparece como un nuevo campo interdisciplinar que potencialmente puede ser capaz de abordar problemas clínicos desde una perspectiva diferente. Este campo es multiescala por naturaleza, yendo desde la nanoescala (como, por ejemplo, los dímeros de tubulina) a la macroescala (como, por ejemplo, el tejido cerebral), y tiene como objetivo abordar problemas que son complejos, y algunas veces imposibles, de estudiar con medios experimentales. La modelización computacional ha sido ampliamente empleada en aplicaciones Neurocientíficas tan diversas como el crecimiento neuronal o la propagación de los potenciales de acción compuestos. Sin embargo, en la mayoría de los enfoques de modelización hechos hasta ahora, la interacción entre la célula y el medio/estímulo que la rodea ha sido muy poco explorada. A pesar de la tremenda importancia de esa relación en algunos desafíos médicos—como, por ejemplo, lesiones traumáticas en el cerebro, cáncer, la enfermedad del Alzheimer—un puente que relacione las propiedades electrofisiológicas-químicas y mecánicas desde la escala molecular al nivel celular todavía no existe. Con ese objetivo, esta investigación propone un marco computacional multiescala particularizado para dos escenarios respresentativos: el crecimiento del axón y el acomplamiento electrofisiológicomecánico de las neuritas. En el primer caso, se explora la relación entre los constituyentes moleculares del axón durante su crecimiento y sus propiedades mecánicas resultantes, mientras que en el último, un estímulo mecánico provoca deficiencias funcionales a nivel celular como consecuencia de sus alteraciones electrofisiológicas-químicas. La modelización computacional empleada en este trabajo es el método de las diferencias finitas, y es implementada en un nuevo programa llamado Neurite. Aunque el método de los elementos finitos es también explorado en parte de esta investigación, el método de las diferencias finitas tiene la flexibilidad y versatilidad necesaria para implementar mode los biológicos, así como la simplicidad matemática para extenderlos a simulaciones a gran escala con un coste computacional bajo. Centrándose primero en el efecto de las propiedades electrofisiológicas-químicas sobre las propiedades mecánicas, una versión adaptada de Neurite es desarrollada para simular la polimerización de los microtúbulos en el crecimiento del axón y proporcionar las propiedades mecánicas como función de la ocupación de los microtúbulos. Después de calibrar el modelo de crecimiento del axón frente a resultados experimentales disponibles en la literatura, las características mecánicas pueden ser evaluadas durante la simulación. Las propiedades mecánicas del axón muestran variaciones dramáticas en la punta de éste, donde el cono de crecimiento soporta las señales químicas y mecánicas. Bansándose en el conocimiento ganado con el modelo de diferencias finitas, y con el objetivo de ir de 1D a 3D, este esquema preliminar pero de una naturaleza innovadora allana el camino a futuros estudios con el método de los elementos finitos. Centrándose finalmente en el efecto de las propiedades mecánicas sobre las propiedades electrofisiológicas- químicas, Neurite es empleado para relacionar las cargas mecánicas macroscópicas con las deformaciones y velocidades de deformación a escala microscópica, y simular la propagación de la señal eléctrica en las neuritas bajo carga mecánica. Las simulaciones fueron calibradas con resultados experimentales publicados en la literatura, proporcionando, por tanto, un modelo capaz de predecir las alteraciones de las funciones electrofisiológicas neuronales bajo cargas externas dañinas, y uniendo lesiones mecánicas con las correspondientes deficiencias funcionales. Para abordar simulaciones a gran escala, aunque otras arquitecturas avanzadas basadas en muchos núcleos integrados (MICs) fueron consideradas, los solvers explícito e implícito se implementaron en unidades de procesamiento central (CPU) y unidades de procesamiento gráfico (GPUs). Estudios de escalabilidad fueron llevados acabo para ambas implementaciones mostrando resultados prometedores para casos de simulaciones extremadamente grandes con GPUs. Esta tesis abre la vía para futuros modelos mecánicos con el objetivo de unir las propiedades electrofisiológicas-químicas con las propiedades mecánicas. El objetivo general es mejorar el conocimiento de las comunidades médicas y de bioingeniería sobre la mecánica de las neuronas y las deficiencias funcionales que aparecen de los daños producidos por traumatismos mecánicos, como lesiones traumáticas en el cerebro, o enfermedades neurodegenerativas como la enfermedad del Alzheimer. ABSTRACT Sitting at the interface between Engineering, Computer Science and Biology, Computational Neuron Mechanics appears as a new interdisciplinary field potentially able to tackle clinical problems from a new perspective. This field is multiscale by nature, ranging from the nanoscale (e.g., tubulin dimers) to the macroscale (e.g., brain tissue), and aims at tackling problems that are complex, and sometime impossible, to study through experimental means. Computational modeling has been widely used in different Neuroscience applications as diverse as neuronal growth or compound action potential propagation. However, in the majority of the modeling approaches done in this field to date, the interactions between the cell and its surrounding media/stimulus have been rarely explored. Despite of the tremendous importance of such relationship in several medical challenges—e.g., traumatic brain injury (TBI), cancer, Alzheimer’s disease (AD)—a bridge between electrophysiological-chemical and mechanical properties of neurons from the molecular scale to the cell level is still lacking. To this end, this research proposes a multiscale computational framework particularized for two representative scenarios: axon growth and electrophysiological-mechanical coupling of neurites. In the former case, the relation between the molecular constituents of the axon during its growth and its resulting mechanical properties is explored, whereas in the latter, a mechanical stimulus provokes functional deficits at cell level as a consequence of its electrophysiological-chemical alterations. The computational modeling approach chosen in this work is the finite difference method (FDM), and was implemented in a new program called Neurite. Although the finite element method (FEM) is also explored as part of this research, the FDM provides the necessary flexibility and versatility to implement biological models, as well as the mathematical simplicity to extend them to large scale simulations with a low computational cost. Focusing first on the effect of electrophysiological-chemical properties on the mechanical proper ties, an adaptation of Neurite was developed to simulate microtubule polymerization in axonal growth and provide the axon mechanical properties as a function of microtubule occupancy. After calibrating the axon growth model against experimental results available in the literature, the mechanical characteristics can be tracked during the simulation. The axon mechanical properties show dramatic variations at the tip of the axon, where the growth cone supports the chemical and mechanical signaling. Based on the knowledge gained from the FDM scheme, and in order to go from 1D to 3D, this preliminary yet novel scheme paves the road for future studies with FEM. Focusing then on the effect of mechanical properties on the electrophysiological-chemical properties, Neurite was used to relate macroscopic mechanical loading to microscopic strains and strain rates, and simulate the electrical signal propagation along neurites under mechanical loading. The simulations were calibrated against experimental results published in the literature, thus providing a model able to predict the alteration of neuronal electrophysiological function under external damaging load, and linking mechanical injuries to subsequent acute functional deficits. To undertake large scale simulations, although other state-of-the-art architectures based on many integrated cores (MICs) were considered, the explicit and implicit solvers were implemented for central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs). Scalability studies were done for both implementations showing promising results for extremely large scale simulations with GPUs. This thesis opens the avenue for future mechanical modeling approaches aimed at linking electrophysiological- chemical properties to mechanical properties. Its overarching goal is to enhance the bioengineering and medical communities knowledge on neuronal mechanics and functional deficits arising from damages produced by direct mechanical insults, such as TBI, or neurodegenerative evolving illness, such as AD.

Large-scale assessment of language proficiency: theoretical and pedagogical reflections on the use of multiple-choice tests

The new requirement placed on students in tertiary settings in Spain to demonstrate a B1 or a B2 proficiency level of English, in accordance with the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages (CEFRL), has led most Spanish universities to develop a program of certification or accreditation of the required level. The first part of this paper aims to provide a rationale for the type of test that has been developed at the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid for the accreditation of a B2 level, a multiple choice version, and to describe how it was constructed and validated. Then, in the second part of the paper, the results from its application to 924 students enrolled in different degree courses at a variety of schools and faculties at the university are analyzed based on a final test version item analysis. To conclude, some theoretical as well as practical conclusions about testing grammar that affect the teaching and learning process are drawn. RESUMEN. Las nuevas exigencias sobre niveles de competencia B1 y B2 en inglés según el Marco Común Europeo de Referencia para las Lenguas (MCERL) que se imponen sobre los estudiantes de grado y posgrado han llevado a la mayoría de las universidades españolas a desarrollar programas de acreditación o de certificación de estos niveles. La primera parte de este trabajo trata sobre las razones que fundamentan la elección de un tipo concreto de examen para la acreditación del nivel B2 de lengua inglesa en la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. Se trata de un test de opción múltiple y en esta parte del trabajo se describe cómo fue diseñado y validado. En la segunda parte, se analizan los resultados de la aplicación del test a gran escala a un total de 924 estudiantes matriculados en varias escuelas y Facultades de la Universidad. Para terminar, se apuntan una serie de conclusiones teóricas y prácticas sobre la evaluación de la gramática y de qué modo influye en los procesos de enseñanza y aprendizaje.

Guidelines for the design of an environmental flow regime program at the regional scale: Application of the ELOHA framework in the Ebro River basin

La gestión de los recursos hídricos se convierte en un reto del presente y del futuro frente a un panorama de continuo incremento de la demanda de agua debido al crecimiento de la población, el crecimiento del desarrollo económico y los posibles efectos del calentamiento global. La política hidráulica desde los años 60 en España se ha centrado en la construcción de infraestructuras que han producido graves alteraciones en el régimen natural de los ríos. Estas alteraciones han provocado y acrecentado los impactos sobre los ecosistemas fluviales y ribereños. Desde los años 90, sin embargo, ha aumentado el interés de la sociedad para conservar estos ecosistemas. El concepto de caudales ambientales consiste en un régimen de caudales que simula las características principales del régimen natural. Los caudales ambientales están diseñados para conservar la estructura y funcionalidad de los ecosistemas asociados al régimen fluvial, bajo la hipótesis de que los elementos que conforman estos ecosistemas están profundamente adaptados al régimen natural de caudales, y que cualquier alteración del régimen natural puede provocar graves daños a todo el sistema. El método ELOHA (Ecological Limits of Hydrological Alteration) tiene como finalidad identificar las componentes del régimen natural de caudales que son clave para mantener el equilibrio de los ecosistemas asociados, y estimar los límites máximos de alteración de estas componentes para garantizar su buen estado. Esta tesis presenta la aplicación del método ELOHA en la cuenca del Ebro. La cuenca del Ebro está profundamente regulada e intervenida por el hombre, y sólo las cabeceras de los principales afluentes del Ebro gozan todavía de un régimen total o cuasi natural. La tesis se estructura en seis capítulos que desarrollan las diferentes partes del método. El primer capítulo explica cómo se originó el concepto “caudales ambientales” y en qué consiste el método ELOHA. El segundo capítulo describe el área de estudio. El tercer capítulo realiza una clasificación de los regímenes naturales de la cuenca (RNC) del Ebro, basada en series de datos de caudal mínimamente alterado y usando exclusivamente parámetros hidrológicos. Se identificaron seis tipos diferentes de régimen natural: pluvial mediterráneo, nivo-pluvial, pluvial mediterréaneo con una fuerte componente del caudal base, pluvial oceánico, pluvio-nival oceánico y Mediterráneo. En el cuarto capítulo se realiza una regionalización a toda la cuenca del Ebro de los seis RNC encontrados en la cueca. Mediante parámetros climáticos y fisiográficos se extrapola la información del tipo de RNC a puntos donde no existen datos de caudal inalterado. El patrón geográfico de los tipos de régimen fluvial obtenido con la regionalización resultó ser coincidente con el patrón obtenido a través de la clasificación hidrológica. El quinto capítulo presenta la validación biológica de los procesos de clasificación anteriores: clasificación hidrológica y regionalización. La validación biológica de los tipos de regímenes fluviales es imprescindible, puesto que los diferentes tipos de régimen fluvial van a servir de unidades de gestión para favorecer el mantenimiento de los ecosistemas fluviales. Se encontraron diferencias significativas entre comunidades biológicas en cinco de los seis tipos de RNC encontrados en la cuenca. Finalmente, en el sexto capítulo se estudian las relaciones hidro-ecológicas existentes en tres de los seis tipos de régimen fluvial encontrados en la cuenca del Ebro. Mediante la construcción de curvas hidro-ecológicas a lo largo de un gradiente de alteración hidrológica, se pueden sugerir los límites de alteración hidrológica (ELOHAs) para garantizar el buen estado ecológico en cada uno de los tipos fluviales estudiados. Se establecieron ELOHAs en tres de los seis tipos de RNC de la cuenca del Ebro Esta tesis, además, pone en evidencia la falta de datos biológicos asociados a registros de caudal. Para llevar a cabo la implantación de un régimen de caudales ambientales en la cuenca, la ubicación de los puntos de muestreo biológico cercanos a estaciones de aforo es imprescindible para poder extraer relaciones causa-efecto de la gestión hidrológica sobre los ecosistemas dependientes. ABSTRACT In view of a growing freshwater demand because of population raising, improvement of economies and the potential effects of climate change, water resources management has become a challenge for present and future societies. Water policies in Spain have been focused from the 60’s on constructing hydraulic infrastructures, in order to dampen flow variability and granting water availability along the year. Consequently, natural flow regimes have been deeply altered and so the depending habitats and its ecosystems. However, an increasing acknowledgment of societies for preserving healthy freshwater ecosystems started in the 90’s and agreed that to maintain healthy freshwater ecosystems, it was necessary to set environmental flow regimes based on the natural flow variability. The Natural Flow Regime paradigm (Richter et al. 1996, Poff et al. 1997) bases on the hypothesis that freshwater ecosystems are made up by elements adapted to natural flow conditions, and any change on these conditions can provoke deep impacts on the whole system. Environmental flow regime concept consists in designing a flow regime that emulates natural flow characteristics, so that ecosystem structure, functions and services are maintained. ELOHA framework (Ecological Limits of Hydrological Alteration) aims to identify key features of the natural flow regime (NFR) that are needed to maintain and preserve healthy freshwater and riparian ecosystems. Moreover, ELOHA framework aims to quantify thresholds of alteration of these flow features according to ecological impacts. This thesis describes the application of the ELOHA framework in the Ebro River Basin. The Ebro River basin is the second largest basin in Spain and it is highly regulated for human demands. Only the Ebro headwaters tributaries still have completely unimpaired flow regime. The thesis has six chapters and the process is described step by step. The first chapter makes an introduction to the origin of the environmental flow concept and the necessity to come up. The second chapter shows a description of the study area. The third chapter develops a classification of NFRs in the basin based on natural flow data and using exclusively hydrological parameters. Six NFRs were found in the basin: continental Mediterranean-pluvial, nivo-pluvial, continental Mediterranean pluvial (with groundwater-dominated flow pattern), pluvio-oceanic, pluvio-nival-oceanic and Mediterranean. The fourth chapter develops a regionalization of the six NFR types across the basin by using climatic and physiographic variables. The geographical pattern obtained from the regionalization process was consistent with the pattern obtained with the hydrologic classification. The fifth chapter performs a biological validation of both classifications, obtained from the hydrologic classification and the posterior extrapolation. When the aim of flow classification is managing water resources according to ecosystem requirements, a validation based on biological data is compulsory. We found significant differences in reference macroinvertebrate communities between five over the six NFR types identified in the Ebro River basin. Finally, in the sixth chapter we explored the existence of significant and explicative flow alteration-ecological response relationships (FA-E curves) within NFR types in the Ebro River basin. The aim of these curves is to find out thresholds of hydrological alteration (ELOHAs), in order to preserve healthy freshwater ecosystem. We set ELOHA values in three NFR types identified in the Ebro River basin. During the development of this thesis, an inadequate biological monitoring in the Ebro River basin was identified. The design and establishment of appropriate monitoring arrangements is a critical final step in the assessment and implementation of environmental flows. Cause-effect relationships between hydrology and macroinvertebrate community condition are the principal data that sustain FA-E curves. Therefore, both data sites must be closely located, so that the effects of external factors are minimized. The scarce hydro-biological pairs of data available in the basin prevented us to apply the ELOHA method at all NFR types.

A model for turbulent combustion simulation of large scale hydrogen explosions

El agotamiento, la ausencia o, simplemente, la incertidumbre sobre la cantidad de las reservas de combustibles fósiles se añaden a la variabilidad de los precios y a la creciente inestabilidad en la cadena de aprovisionamiento para crear fuertes incentivos para el desarrollo de fuentes y vectores energéticos alternativos. El atractivo de hidrógeno como vector energético es muy alto en un contexto que abarca, además, fuertes inquietudes por parte de la población sobre la contaminación y las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Debido a su excelente impacto ambiental, la aceptación pública del nuevo vector energético dependería, a priori, del control de los riesgos asociados su manipulación y almacenamiento. Entre estos, la existencia de un innegable riesgo de explosión aparece como el principal inconveniente de este combustible alternativo. Esta tesis investiga la modelización numérica de explosiones en grandes volúmenes, centrándose en la simulación de la combustión turbulenta en grandes dominios de cálculo en los que la resolución que es alcanzable está fuertemente limitada. En la introducción, se aborda una descripción general de los procesos de explosión. Se concluye que las restricciones en la resolución de los cálculos hacen necesario el modelado de los procesos de turbulencia y de combustión. Posteriormente, se realiza una revisión crítica de las metodologías disponibles tanto para turbulencia como para combustión, que se lleva a cabo señalando las fortalezas, deficiencias e idoneidad de cada una de las metodologías. Como conclusión de esta investigación, se obtiene que la única estrategia viable para el modelado de la combustión, teniendo en cuenta las limitaciones existentes, es la utilización de una expresión que describa la velocidad de combustión turbulenta en función de distintos parámetros. Este tipo de modelos se denominan Modelos de velocidad de llama turbulenta y permiten cerrar una ecuación de balance para la variable de progreso de combustión. Como conclusión también se ha obtenido, que la solución más adecuada para la simulación de la turbulencia es la utilización de diferentes metodologías para la simulación de la turbulencia, LES o RANS, en función de la geometría y de las restricciones en la resolución de cada problema particular. Sobre la base de estos hallazgos, el crea de un modelo de combustión en el marco de los modelos de velocidad de la llama turbulenta. La metodología propuesta es capaz de superar las deficiencias existentes en los modelos disponibles para aquellos problemas en los que se precisa realizar cálculos con una resolución moderada o baja. Particularmente, el modelo utiliza un algoritmo heurístico para impedir el crecimiento del espesor de la llama, una deficiencia que lastraba el célebre modelo de Zimont. Bajo este enfoque, el énfasis del análisis se centra en la determinación de la velocidad de combustión, tanto laminar como turbulenta. La velocidad de combustión laminar se determina a través de una nueva formulación capaz de tener en cuenta la influencia simultánea en la velocidad de combustión laminar de la relación de equivalencia, la temperatura, la presión y la dilución con vapor de agua. La formulación obtenida es válida para un dominio de temperaturas, presiones y dilución con vapor de agua más extenso de cualquiera de las formulaciones previamente disponibles. Por otra parte, el cálculo de la velocidad de combustión turbulenta puede ser abordado mediante el uso de correlaciones que permiten el la determinación de esta magnitud en función de distintos parámetros. Con el objetivo de seleccionar la formulación más adecuada, se ha realizado una comparación entre los resultados obtenidos con diversas expresiones y los resultados obtenidos en los experimentos. Se concluye que la ecuación debida a Schmidt es la más adecuada teniendo en cuenta las condiciones del estudio. A continuación, se analiza la importancia de las inestabilidades de la llama en la propagación de los frentes de combustión. Su relevancia resulta significativa para mezclas pobres en combustible en las que la intensidad de la turbulencia permanece moderada. Estas condiciones son importantes dado que son habituales en los accidentes que ocurren en las centrales nucleares. Por ello, se lleva a cabo la creación de un modelo que permita estimar el efecto de las inestabilidades, y en concreto de la inestabilidad acústica-paramétrica, en la velocidad de propagación de llama. El modelado incluye la derivación matemática de la formulación heurística de Bauwebs et al. para el cálculo de la incremento de la velocidad de combustión debido a las inestabilidades de la llama, así como el análisis de la estabilidad de las llamas con respecto a una perturbación cíclica. Por último, los resultados se combinan para concluir el modelado de la inestabilidad acústica-paramétrica. Tras finalizar esta fase, la investigación se centro en la aplicación del modelo desarrollado en varios problemas de importancia para la seguridad industrial y el posterior análisis de los resultados y la comparación de los mismos con los datos experimentales correspondientes. Concretamente, se abordo la simulación de explosiones en túneles y en contenedores, con y sin gradiente de concentración y ventilación. Como resultados generales, se logra validar el modelo confirmando su idoneidad para estos problemas. Como última tarea, se ha realizado un analisis en profundidad de la catástrofe de Fukushima-Daiichi. El objetivo del análisis es determinar la cantidad de hidrógeno que explotó en el reactor número uno, en contraste con los otros estudios sobre el tema que se han centrado en la determinación de la cantidad de hidrógeno generado durante el accidente. Como resultado de la investigación, se determinó que la cantidad más probable de hidrogeno que fue consumida durante la explosión fue de 130 kg. Es un hecho notable el que la combustión de una relativamente pequeña cantidad de hidrogeno pueda causar un daño tan significativo. Esta es una muestra de la importancia de este tipo de investigaciones. Las ramas de la industria para las que el modelo desarrollado será de interés abarca la totalidad de la futura economía de hidrógeno (pilas de combustible, vehículos, almacenamiento energético, etc) con un impacto especial en los sectores del transporte y la energía nuclear, tanto para las tecnologías de fisión y fusión. ABSTRACT The exhaustion, absolute absence or simply the uncertainty on the amount of the reserves of fossil fuels sources added to the variability of their prices and the increasing instability and difficulties on the supply chain are strong incentives for the development of alternative energy sources and carriers. The attractiveness of hydrogen in a context that additionally comprehends concerns on pollution and emissions is very high. Due to its excellent environmental impact, the public acceptance of the new energetic vector will depend on the risk associated to its handling and storage. Fromthese, the danger of a severe explosion appears as the major drawback of this alternative fuel. This thesis investigates the numerical modeling of large scale explosions, focusing on the simulation of turbulent combustion in large domains where the resolution achievable is forcefully limited. In the introduction, a general description of explosion process is undertaken. It is concluded that the restrictions of resolution makes necessary the modeling of the turbulence and combustion processes. Subsequently, a critical review of the available methodologies for both turbulence and combustion is carried out pointing out their strengths and deficiencies. As a conclusion of this investigation, it appears clear that the only viable methodology for combustion modeling is the utilization of an expression for the turbulent burning velocity to close a balance equation for the combustion progress variable, a model of the Turbulent flame velocity kind. Also, that depending on the particular resolution restriction of each problem and on its geometry the utilization of different simulation methodologies, LES or RANS, is the most adequate solution for modeling the turbulence. Based on these findings, the candidate undertakes the creation of a combustion model in the framework of turbulent flame speed methodology which is able to overcome the deficiencies of the available ones for low resolution problems. Particularly, the model utilizes a heuristic algorithm to maintain the thickness of the flame brush under control, a serious deficiency of the Zimont model. Under the approach utilized by the candidate, the emphasis of the analysis lays on the accurate determination of the burning velocity, both laminar and turbulent. On one side, the laminar burning velocity is determined through a newly developed correlation which is able to describe the simultaneous influence of the equivalence ratio, temperature, steam dilution and pressure on the laminar burning velocity. The formulation obtained is valid for a larger domain of temperature, steam dilution and pressure than any of the previously available formulations. On the other side, a certain number of turbulent burning velocity correlations are available in the literature. For the selection of the most suitable, they have been compared with experiments and ranked, with the outcome that the formulation due to Schmidt was the most adequate for the conditions studied. Subsequently, the role of the flame instabilities on the development of explosions is assessed. Their significance appears to be of importance for lean mixtures in which the turbulence intensity remains moderate. These are important conditions which are typical for accidents on Nuclear Power Plants. Therefore, the creation of a model to account for the instabilities, and concretely, the acoustic parametric instability is undertaken. This encloses the mathematical derivation of the heuristic formulation of Bauwebs et al. for the calculation of the burning velocity enhancement due to flame instabilities as well as the analysis of the stability of flames with respect to a cyclic velocity perturbation. The results are combined to build a model of the acoustic-parametric instability. The following task in this research has been to apply the model developed to several problems significant for the industrial safety and the subsequent analysis of the results and comparison with the corresponding experimental data was performed. As a part of such task simulations of explosions in a tunnel and explosions in large containers, with and without gradient of concentration and venting have been carried out. As a general outcome, the validation of the model is achieved, confirming its suitability for the problems addressed. As a last and final undertaking, a thorough study of the Fukushima-Daiichi catastrophe has been carried out. The analysis performed aims at the determination of the amount of hydrogen participating on the explosion that happened in the reactor one, in contrast with other analysis centered on the amount of hydrogen generated during the accident. As an outcome of the research, it was determined that the most probable amount of hydrogen exploding during the catastrophe was 130 kg. It is remarkable that the combustion of such a small quantity of material can cause tremendous damage. This is an indication of the importance of these types of investigations. The industrial branches that can benefit from the applications of the model developed in this thesis include the whole future hydrogen economy, as well as nuclear safety both in fusion and fission technology.

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

Enriching plant diversity in grasslands by large-scale experimental sward disturbance and seed addition along gradients of land-use intensity

Aims The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is among the most active areas of ecological research. Furthermore, enhancing the diversity of degraded ecosystems is a major goal in applied restoration ecology. In grasslands, many species may be locally absent due to dispersal or microsite limitation and may therefore profit from mechanical disturbance of the resident vegetation. We established a seed addition and disturbance experiment across several grassland sites of different land use to test whether plant diversity can be increased in these grasslands. Additionally, the experiment will allow us testing the consequences of increased plant diversity for ecosystem processes and for the diversity of other taxa in real-world ecosystems. Here we present details of the experimental design and report results from the first vegetation survey one year after disturbance and seed addition. Moreover, we tested whether the effects of seed addition and disturbance varied among grassland depending on their land use or pre-disturbance plant diversity. Methods A full-factorial experiment was installed in 73 grasslands in three regions across Germany. Grasslands were under regular agricultural use, but varied in the type and the intensity of management, thereby representing the range of management typical for large parts of Central Europe. The disturbance treatment consisted of disturbing the top 10 cm of the sward using a rotavator or rotary harrow. Seed addition consisted of sowing a high-diversity seed mixture of regional plant species. These species were all regionally present, but often locally absent, depending on the resident vegetation composition and richness of each grassland. Important findings One year after sward disturbance it had significantly increased cover of bare soil, seedling species richness and numbers of seedlings. Seed addition had increased plant species richness, but only in combination with sward disturbance. The increase in species richness, when both seed addition and disturbance was applied, was higher at high land-use intensity and low resident diversity. Thus, we show that at least the early recruitment of many species is possible also at high land-use intensity, indicating the potential to restore and enhance biodiversity of species-poor agricultural grasslands. Our newly established experiment provides a unique platform for broad-scale research on the land-use dependence of future trajectories of vegetation diversity and composition and their effects on ecosystem functioning.