Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River Virus transmission in Queensland, Australia

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1–4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6–2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors.

Molecular evolutionary dynamics of Ross River virus and implications for vaccine efficacy

Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-borne member of the genus Alphavirus that causes epidemic polyarthritis in humans, costing the Australian health system at least US$10 million annually. Recent progress in RRV vaccine development requires accurate assessment of RRV genetic diversity and evolution, particularly as they may affect the utility of future vaccination. In this study, we provide novel RRV genome sequences and investigate the evolutionary dynamics of RRV from time-structured E2 gene datasets. Our analysis indicates that, although RRV evolves at a similar rate to other alphaviruses (mean evolutionary rate of approx. 8x10(-4) nucleotide substitutions per site year(-1)), the relative genetic diversity of RRV has been continuously low through time, possibly as a result of purifying selection imposed by replication in a wide range of natural host and vector species. Together, these findings suggest that vaccination against RRV is unlikely to result in the rapid antigenic evolution that could compromise the future efficacy of current RRV vaccines.

Judge George W Paul's Japanese house : a case study

In the late 1880s a pre-fabricated Japanese house was shipped from Kobe, Japan, to Brisbane, Australia, and erected in the up-market suburb of New Farm by Japanese tradesmen. This paper is developed from a broader project researching the life of G W Paul, the man who had the house built and subsequently lived in it for the remainder of his life. Paul’s motivation in importing the house represented a unique, but unfulfilled effort to develop a future, hybrid culture for Queensland. This effort took the form of a commercial venture to construct Japanese houses as desirable and climatically suitable dwellings. Against the backdrop of this ambition, this paper presents new research to elucidate and extend previous knowledge, assesses the reception of the house by its nineteenth century Brisbane audience, and considers possible reasons for the limited response which signalled the cancellation of the commercial venture.

Evaluation of an inactivated Ross River virus vaccine in active and passive mouse immunization models and establishment of a correlate of protection

Ross River Virus has caused reported outbreaks of epidemic polyarthritis, a chronic debilitating disease associated with significant long-term morbidity in Australia and the Pacific region since the 1920s. To address this public health concern, a formalin- and UV-inactivated whole virus vaccine grown in animal protein-free cell culture was developed and tested in preclinical studies to evaluate immunogenicity and efficacy in animal models. After active immunizations, the vaccine dose-dependently induced antibodies and protected adult mice from viremia and interferon α/β receptor knock-out (IFN-α/βR(-/-)) mice from death and disease. In passive transfer studies, administration of human vaccinee sera followed by RRV challenge protected adult mice from viremia and young mice from development of arthritic signs similar to human RRV-induced disease. Based on the good correlation between antibody titers in human sera and protection of animals, a correlate of protection was defined. This is of particular importance for the evaluation of the vaccine because of the comparatively low annual incidence of RRV disease, which renders a classical efficacy trial impractical. Antibody-dependent enhancement of infection, did not occur in mice even at low to undetectable concentrations of vaccine-induced antibodies. Also, RRV vaccine-induced antibodies were partially cross-protective against infection with a related alphavirus, Chikungunya virus, and did not enhance infection. Based on these findings, the inactivated RRV vaccine is expected to be efficacious and protect humans from RRV disease

Persistence of multiple genetic lineages within intra-host populations of Ross River virus

We examined the structure and extent of genetic diversity in intrahost populations of Ross River virus (RRV) in samples from six human patients, focusing on the nonstructural (nsP3) and structural (E2) protein genes. Strikingly, although the samples were collected from contrasting ecological settings 3,000 kilometers apart in Australia, we observed multiple viral lineages in four of the six individuals, which is indicative of widespread mixed infections. In addition, a comparison with previously published RRV sequences revealed that these distinct lineages have been in circulation for at least 5 years, and we were able to document their long-term persistence over extensive geographical distances

Et tu, George? Campaign journalism and the politics of compromise

There is a category of film about journalism in which journalism is not the star, but the supporting player, and journalists not the protagonists but the Greek chorus, commenting on and also changing the realities they report. In such films the news media are a structuring presence driving the plot, shaping the narrative, constructing what we might think of as a pseudo-reality. Like Daniel Boorstin’s notion of the pseudo-event (introduced in his still-relevant book The Image, 1962), this pseudo-reality is so-named because it would not exist were it not for the demands of the news media’s hunger for stories, and knowledge of the damage they can do with those stories, on the calculations and actions of the key actors. Pseudo-realities form as responses to what political actors think journalists and their organisations need and want, or as efforts to shape journalistic accounts in ways favourable to themselves. Films about politics often feature pseudorealities of this kind, in which the events and actions driving the plot have only a tenuous relationship with important things going on in the everyday world beyond the political arena. Everything we see is about image, perception, appearance.

Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

An afternoon with Chopin and George Sand

An original edutainment piece written by Caroline Heim and Christian Heim. Frederic Chopin and George Sands' turbulent and fraught relationship is dramatised through Chopin's music and Sand's writings.

Metal ion levels post unilateral primary Exeter total hip replacement

There has been much discussion and controversy in the media recently regarding metal toxicity following large head metal on metal (MoM) total hip replacement (THR). Patients have been reported as having hugely elevated levels of metal ions with, at times, devastating systemic, neurolgical and/or orthopaedic sequelae. However, no direct correlation between metal ion level and severity of metallosis has yet been defined. Normative levels of metal ions in well functioning, non Cobalt-Chrome hips have also not been defined to date. The Exeter total hip replacement contains no Cobalt-Chrome (Co-Cr) as it is made entirely from stainless steel. However, small levels of these metals may be present in the modular head of the prosthesis, and their effect on metal ion levels in the well functioning patient has not been investigated. We proposed to define the “normal” levels of metal ions detected by blood test in 20 well functioning patients at a minimum 1 year post primary Exeter total hip replacement, where the patient had had only one joint replaced. Presently, accepted normal levels of blood Chromium are 10–100 nmol/L and plasma Cobalt are 0–20 nmol/L. The UK Modern Humanities Research Association (MHRA) has suggested that levels of either Cobalt or Chromium above 7 ppb (equivalent to 135 nmol/L for Chromium and 120 nmol/L for Cobalt) may be significant. Below this level it is indicated that significant soft tissue reaction and tissue damage is less likely and the risk of implant failure is reduced. Hips were a mixture of cemented and hybrid procedures performed by two experienced orthopaedic consultants. Seventy percent were female, with a mixture of head sizes used. In our cohort, there were no cases where the blood Chromium levels were above the normal range, and in more than 70% of cases, levels were below recordable levels. There were also no cases of elevated plasma Cobalt levels, and in 35% of cases, levels were negligible. We conclude that the implantation with an Exeter total hip replacement does not lead to elevation of blood metal ion levels.

Ross River virus evolution : implications for vaccine development

Ross River virus is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes approximately 5000 cases of epidemic polyarthritis in Australia each year and has direct medical-associated costs of approximately US$15 million annually. While mosquito control programs are able, at best, to contain rather than prevent this disease, natural infection with Ross River virus confers lifelong protection against subsequent clinical infection. A killed-virus vaccine has been developed, which is in Phase III clinical trials. Analyses of intra-host genetic diversity and of long-term evolutionary changes in Ross River virus populations suggest that antigenic variation is unlikely to pose a threat to the efficacy of this vaccine.

Ross River virus arthritis

“Epidemics” of a benign disease causing polyarthralgia and rash were first described in Australia in 1927.63 Following the recovery of the causative agent and the advent of serologic tests able to diagnose Ross River virus infection, epidemic polyarthritis has been recognized as endemic in Australia and has occurred as epidemics in numerous Pacific nations. Approximately 4000 cases of epidemic polyarthritis are reported in Australia each year, with a peak of 7800 cases in 1996. Some confusion has been generated recently by use of the term Ross River fever to describe clinical Ross River virus infections because fever does not develop in more than half of those with clinical disease.59 Additional confusion has been generated by efforts to describe any polyarthritis caused by an Australian arbovirus as epidemic polyarthritis. The term epidemic polyarthritis should be used to describe only clinical disease caused by Ross River virus.

The national railway of Sarah Island : Richard Flanagan's Gould's Book of Fish

In the latter half of the nineteenth century the railway became an emblem of technological advancement, stood for the improvement and progression of European life, and became a recognizable symbol for the achievements of governments and citizens. The implementation and use of the railway became closely linked with notions of national identity and character. The railway became an identifiable artefact in official history but at the same time it became a part of everyday life. Richard Flanagan’s Gould’s Book of Fish retells the life-story of a fictionalized convict sent to Sarah Island and who paints fish, eventually he metamorphoses into one. It could be thought that a novel set in convict times would have little to do with notions of national identity, technological advancement, and railway travel. However, Richard Flanagan, in this very complex, almost surreal, novel, has used the construction of a fictional national railway as one of the ways to explore Australia's complex relationship with history and space. The novel tells of the plans of a history-loving Commandant and his desire to build a national railway on Sarah Island. This paper explores how Sarah Island becomes a metonym for Australia as a whole and Flanagan's novel takes on a metaphysical dimension as he reveals the struggles that emerge when official history collides with non-official versions. The fabulations of the novel contribute to an historical reconstruction of the spatial/architectural history of the Tasmanian colonial project.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.