"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity. © Author(s) 2009.

Identification of factors and groups at risk of infection with Schistosoma mansoni: a strategy for the implementation of control measures?

A fourteen year schistosomiasis control program in Peri-Peri (Capim Branco, MG) reduced prevalence from 43.5 to 4.4%; incidence from 19.0 to 2.9%, the geometric mean of the number of eggs from 281 to 87 and the level of the hepatoesplenic form cases from 5.9 to 0.0%. In 1991, three years after the interruption of the program, the prevalence had risen to 19.6%. The district consists of Barbosa (a rural area) and Peri-Peri itself (an urban area). In 1991, the prevalence in the two areas was 28.4% and 16.0% respectively. A multivariate analysis of risk factors for schistosomiasis indicated the domestic agricultural activity with population attributive risk (PAR) of 29.82%, the distance (< 10 m) from home to water source (PAR = 25.93%) and weekly fishing (PAR = 17.21%) as being responsible for infections in the rural area. The recommended control measures for this area are non-manual irrigation and removal of homes to more than ten meters from irrigation ditches. In the urban area, it was observed that swimming at weekly intervals (PAR = 20.71%), daily domestic agricultural activity (PAR = 4.07%) and the absence of drinking water in the home (PAR=4.29%) were responsible for infections. Thus, in the urban area the recommended control measures are the substitution of manual irrigation with an irrigation method that avoids contact with water, the creation of leisure options of the population and the provision of a domestic water supply. The authors call attention to the need for the efficacy of multivariate analysis of risk factors to be evaluated for schistosomiasis prior to its large scale use as a indicator of the control measures to be implemented.

Identification of risk factors for death from tetanus in Pernambuco, Brazil: a case-control study

A case-control study was conducted to identify risk factors for death from tetanus in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Information was obtained from medical records of 152 cases and 152 controls, admitted to the tetanus unit in the State University Hospital, in Recife, from 1990 to 1995. Variables were grouped in three different sets. Crude and adjusted odds ratios, p-values and 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Variables selected in the multivariate analysis in each set were controlled for the effect of those selected in the others. All factors related to the disease progression - incubation period, time elapsed between the occurrence of the first tetanus symptom and admission, and period of onset - showed a statistically significant association with death from tetanus. Similarly, signs and/or symptoms occurring on admission or in the following 24 hours (second set): reflex spasms, neck stiffness, respiratory signs/symptoms and respiratory failure requiring artificial ventilation (third set) were associated with death from tetanus even when adjusted for the effect of the others.

Predicting type of delivery by identification of obstetric risk factors through data mining

In Maternity Care, a quick decision has to be made about the most suitable delivery type for the current patient. Guidelines are followed by physicians to support that decision; however, those practice recommendations are limited and underused. In the last years, caesarean delivery has been pursued in over 28% of pregnancies, and other operative techniques regarding specific problems have also been excessively employed. This study identifies obstetric and pregnancy factors that can be used to predict the most appropriate delivery technique, through the induction of data mining models using real data gathered in the perinatal and maternal care unit of Centro Hospitalar of Oporto (CHP). Predicting the type of birth envisions high-quality services, increased safety and effectiveness of specific practices to help guide maternity care decisions and facilitate optimal outcomes in mother and child. In this work was possible to acquire good results, achieving sensitivity and specificity values of 90.11% and 80.05%, respectively, providing the CHP with a model capable of correctly identify caesarean sections and vaginal deliveries.

Clinical follow-up of women infected with human papillomavirus-16, either alone or with other human papillomavirus types: identification of different risk groups.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluation of the clinical impact of multiple infections of the cervix by human papillomavirus, including human papillomavirus-16, compared with single human papillomavirus-16 infection. STUDY DESIGN: One hundred sixty-nine women were classified in 3 categories depending on their human papillomavirus profile: human papillomavirus-16 only, human papillomavirus-16 and low-risk type(s), and human papillomavirus-16 and other high-risk type(s). Cervical brush samples were analyzed for human papillomavirus DNA by polymerase chain reaction and reverse line blot hybridization. All women were evaluated with colposcopy during 24 months or more. Management was according to the Bethesda recommendations. RESULTS: Women infected with human papillomavirus-16 and other high-risk human papillomavirus type(s) presented more progression or no change in the grade of dysplasia, compared with women of the other groups (relative risk [RR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.82; P = .02 at 6 months; RR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.46-3.02; P < .001 at 12 months; RR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.21-2.72; P = .004 at 24 months). CONCLUSION: Coinfection of women with human papillomavirus-16 and other high-risk human papillomavirus type(s) increases the risk of unfavorable evolution.

Bone mineral density (BMD), micro-architecture estimation (TBS) and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) extracted from a single DXA device in combination with clinical risk factors improve significantly the identification of women at high risk of fracture

Introduction: Osteoporosis (OP) is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by a low bone mineral density (BMD) and a micro-architectural (MA) deterioration. Clinical risk factors (CRF) are often used as a MA approximation. MA is yet evaluable in daily practice by the Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) measure. TBS is a novel grey-level texture measurement reflecting bone micro-architecture based on the use of experimental variograms of 2D projection images. TBS is very simple to obtain, by reanalyzing a lumbar DXA-scan. TBS has proven to have diagnosis and prognosis value, partially independent of CRF and BMD. The aim of the OsteoLaus cohort is to combine in daily practice the CRF and the information given by DXA (BMD, TBS and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA)) to better identify women at high fracture risk. Method: The OsteoLaus cohort (1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland) started in 2010. This study is derived from the cohort COLAUS who started in Lausanne in 2003. The main goals of COLAUS is to obtain information on the epidemiology and genetic determinants of cardiovascular risk in 6700 men and women. CRF for OP, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip BMD, VFA by DXA and MA evaluation by TBS are recorded in OsteoLaus. Preliminary results are reported. Results: We included 631 women: mean age 67.4±6.7 y, BMI 26.1±4.6, mean lumbar spine BMD 0.943±0.168 (T-score -1.4 SD), TBS 1.271±0.103. As expected, correlation between BMD and site matched TBS is low (r2=0.16). Prevalence of VFx grade 2/3, major OP Fx and all OP Fx is 8.4%, 17.0% and 26.0% respectively. Age- and BMI-adjusted ORs (per SD decrease) are 1.8 (1.2- 2.5), 1.6 (1.2-2.1), 1.3 (1.1-1.6) for BMD for the different categories of fractures and 2.0 (1.4-3.0), 1.9 (1.4-2.5), 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for TBS respectively. Only 32 to 37% of women with OP Fx have a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200. If we combine a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200, 54 to 60% of women with an osteoporotic Fx are identified. Conclusion: As in the already published studies, these preliminary results confirm the partial independence between BMD and TBS. More importantly, a combination of TBS subsequent to BMD increases significantly the identification of women with prevalent OP Fx which would have been miss-classified by BMD alone. For the first time we are able to have complementary information about fracture (VFA), density (BMD), micro- and macro architecture (TBS & HAS) from a simple, low ionizing radiation and cheap device: DXA. Such complementary information is very useful for the patient in the daily practice and moreover will likely have an impact on cost effectiveness analysis.

Reliability and validity of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) imbedded within a general health risk screening questionnaire: results of a survey in 332 primary care patients.

BACKGROUND: Self-administered, general health risk screening questionnaires that are administered while patients wait in the doctor's office may be a reasonable and timesaving approach to address the requirements of preventive medicine in a typical 10-min medical visit. The psychometric characteristics of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) incorporated within a health questionnaire (H-AUDIT) have not been examined. METHODS: The reliability and validity of the self-administered AUDIT were compared between the H-AUDIT and the AUDIT used as a single scale (S-AUDIT) in 332 primary care patients. RESULTS: No major demographic or alcohol use characteristics were found between the 166 subjects who completed the H-AUDIT and the 166 individuals who completed the S-AUDIT. The test-retest reliability of the 166 subjects who completed the H-AUDIT [estimated by Spearman correlation coefficient at a 6-week interval (0.88), internal consistency (total correlation coefficients for all items ranged from 0.38 to 0.69; Cronbach alpha index 0.85), and the sensitivity and specificity of the H-AUDIT were used to identify at-risk drinkers' areas under receiver operating characteristic (0.77) and alcohol-dependent subjects' areas under receiver operating characteristic (0.89)] was similar to the same measurements obtained with the 166 individuals who completed the S-AUDIT. CONCLUSIONS: The AUDIT incorporated in a health risk screening questionnaire is a reliable and valid self-administered instrument to identify at-risk drinkers and alcohol-dependent individuals in primary care settings.

Identification of clinical, epidemiological and laboratory risk factors for leprosy reactions during and after multidrug therapy

This cross-sectional retrospective study evaluated 440 leprosy patients; 57% (251/440) had leprosy reactions during and/or after multidrug therapy, 80.5% (202/251) of whom presented with multibacillary leprosy. At diagnosis, positive bacterial index (BI) [odds ratio (OR) = 6.39; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.1-10.1)] or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (OR = 9.15; 95% CI: 5.4-15.5) in skin smears, anti-phenolic glycolipid-1 (anti-PGL-1) ELISA (OR = 4.77; 95% CI: 2.9-7.9), leucocytosis (OR = 9.97; 95% CI: 3.9-25.7), thrombocytopenia (OR = 5.72; 95% CI: 2.3-14.0) and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (OR = 2.38; 95% CI: 1.4-4.0) were potential markers for the development of reactions during treatment. After treatment, positive BI (OR = 8.47; 95% CI: 4.7-15.3) and PCR (OR = 6.46; 95% CI: 3.4-12.3) in skin smears, anti-PGL-1 ELISA (OR = 2.25; 95% CI: 1.3-3.9), anaemia (OR = 2.36; 95% CI: 1.2-4.5), leucocytosis (OR = 4.14; 95% CI: 1.5-11.6) and thrombocytopenia (OR = 3.70; 95% CI: 1.3-2.2) were risk factors for the occurrence of reactions during the study period. The identification of groups with an increased risk for developing reactions will allow for the timely development of a treatment plan to prevent nerve damage and, therefore, the appearance of the disabling sequelae associated with the stigma of leprosy.

A clinical prognostic model for the identification of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism and active cancer.

BACKGROUND: Physicians need a specific risk-stratification tool to facilitate safe and cost-effective approaches to the management of patients with cancer and acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The objective of this study was to develop a simple risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with PE and cancer by using measures readily obtained at the time of PE diagnosis. METHODS: Investigators randomly allocated 1,556 consecutive patients with cancer and acute PE from the international multicenter Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. The external validation cohort for this study consisted of 261 patients with cancer and acute PE. Investigators compared 30-day all-cause mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. RESULTS: In the derivation sample, multivariable analyses produced the risk score, which contained six variables: age > 80 years, heart rate ≥ 110/min, systolic BP < 100 mm Hg, body weight < 60 kg, recent immobility, and presence of metastases. In the internal validation cohort (n = 508), the 22.2% of patients (113 of 508) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 4.4% (95% CI, 0.6%-8.2%) compared with 29.9% (95% CI, 25.4%-34.4%) in the high-risk group. In the external validation cohort, the 18% of patients (47 of 261) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 0%, compared with 19.6% (95% CI, 14.3%-25.0%) in the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: The developed clinical prediction rule accurately identifies low-risk patients with cancer and acute PE.

Androgenetic alopecia: identification of four genetic risk loci and evidence for the contribution of WNT signaling to its etiology.

The pathogenesis of androgenetic alopecia (AGA, male-pattern baldness) is driven by androgens, and genetic predisposition is the major prerequisite. Candidate gene and genome-wide association studies have reported that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at eight different genomic loci are associated with AGA development. However, a significant fraction of the overall heritable risk still awaits identification. Furthermore, the understanding of the pathophysiology of AGA is incomplete, and each newly associated locus may provide novel insights into contributing biological pathways. The aim of this study was to identify unknown AGA risk loci by replicating SNPs at the 12 genomic loci that showed suggestive association (5 × 10(-8)<P<10(-5)) with AGA in a recent meta-analysis. We analyzed a replication set comprising 2,759 cases and 2,661 controls of European descent to confirm the association with AGA at these loci. Combined analysis of the replication and the meta-analysis data identified four genome-wide significant risk loci for AGA on chromosomes 2q35, 3q25.1, 5q33.3, and 12p12.1. The strongest association signal was obtained for rs7349332 (P=3.55 × 10(-15)) on chr2q35, which is located intronically in WNT10A. Expression studies in human hair follicle tissue suggest that WNT10A has a functional role in AGA etiology. Thus, our study provides genetic evidence supporting an involvement of WNT signaling in AGA development.

Ankle-Brachial Index: Nurses Strategy To Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors Identification

Elevated risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events is associated with high prevalence of peripheral arterial disease, with assessment through the ankle-brachial index (ABI). This study aimed to demonstrate that the ABI and the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire are tools to be used by nurses in prevention and/or treatment of CVD (cardiovascular disease). A cross-sectional study was carried out with patients from a cardiovascular clinic. The Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire was applied and the ABI was measured with the formula (ABI= Blood Pressure Ankle/Blood Pressure Brachial). A total of 115 patients were included, most were females (57.4%), aged 60.6 ± 12.5 years. The most prevalent risk factors were hypertension (64.3%), physical inactivity (48.7%) and family history (58.3%). The study showed that abnormal ABI was frequently found and 42.6% of the patients with abnormal ABI showed intermittent claudication. The method to evaluate the ABI associated to the Edinburg Claudication Questionnaire, can be easily used by nurses in the clinical evaluation of asymptomatic and symptomatic CVD patients.

Combinations of prognostic tools for identification of high-risk normotensive patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

Background: In haemodynamically stable patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE), studies have not evaluated the usefulness of combining the measurement of cardiac troponin, transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE), and lower extremity complete compression ultrasound (CCUS) testing for predicting the risk of PE-related death. Methods: The study assessed the ability of three diagnostic tests (cardiac troponin I (cTnI), echocardiogram, and CCUS) to prognosticate the primary outcome of PE-related mortality during 30 days of follow-up after a diagnosis of PE by objective testing. Results: Of 591 normotensive patients diagnosed with PE, the primary outcome occurred in 37 patients (6.3%; 95% CI 4.3% to 8.2%). Patients with right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) by TTE and concomitant deep vein thrombosis (DVT) by CCUS had a PE-related mortality of 19.6%, compared with 17.1% of patients with elevated cTnI and concomitant DVT and 15.2% of patients with elevated cTnI and RVD. The use of any two-test strategy had a higher specificity and positive predictive value compared with the use of any test by itself. A combined three-test strategy did not further improve prognostication. For a subgroup analysis of high-risk patients, according to the pulmonary embolism severity index (classes IV and V), positive predictive values of the two-test strategies for PE-related mortality were 25.0%, 24.4% and 20.7%, respectively. Conclusions: In haemodynamically stable patients with acute symptomatic PE, a combination of echocardiography (or troponin testing) and CCUS improved prognostication compared with the use of any test by itself for the identification of those at high risk of PE-related death.

Expérience de dix ans de réanimation chirurgicale d'un centre hospitalier universitaire. Détermination d'un critère d'identification des patients à risque de décéder de coagulopathie irréversible [10 years experience in surgical resuscitation at a university hospital center. Determination of a criterion for identifying patients at risk for fatal irreversible coagulopathy]

The authors evaluated ten years of surgical reanimation in the University Centre of Lausanne (CHUV). Irreversible coagulopathy (IC) is the predominant cause of death for the polytraumatized patient. Acidosis, hypothermy, and coagulation troubles are crucial elements of this coagulopathy. The authors looked for a criterion allowing the identification of dying of IC. In a retrospective study, laboratory results of pH, TP, PTT, thrombocyte count and the need for blood transfusion units were checked for each major step of the primary evaluation and treatment of the polytraumatized patients. These results were considered as critical according to criteria of the literature (30). The authors conclude that the apparation of a third critical value may be useful to identify the polytraumatized patient at risk of dying of IC status. This criterion may also guide the trauma team in selecting a damage control surgical approach (DCS). This criterion was then introduced into an algorithm involving the Emergency Department, the operating room and the Intensive Care Unit. This criterion is a new tool to address the patient at the crucial moment to the appropriate hospital structure.