Financial Risk Analysis of Portuguese Textile and Tourism Companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

Financial Risk Analysis of Portuguese Textile and Tourism Companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

Risk analysis in a Portuguese archive what has changed in five years?

The Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model was applied in 2006 to a Portuguese archive located in Lisbon. Its results highlighted the need for the institution to take care of risks related to fire, physical forces and relative humidity problems. Five years after this first analysis the results are revisited and a few changes are introduced due to recent events: fire and high humidity remain an important hazard but are now accompanied by a pressing contaminants problem. Improvements in storage systems were responsible for a large decrease in terms of calculated risk magnitude and proved to be very cost-effective.

Risk Analysis and Behavior of Electricity Portfolio Aggregator

The scope of this paper is to adapt the standard mean-variance model of Henry Markowitz theory, creating a simulation tool to find the optimal configuration of the portfolio aggregator, calculate its profitability and risk. Currently, there is a deep discussion going on among the power system society about the structure and architecture of the future electric system. In this environment, policy makers and electric utilities find new approaches to access the electricity market; this configures new challenging positions in order to find innovative strategies and methodologies. Decentralized power generation is gaining relevance in liberalized markets, and small and medium size electricity consumers are also become producers (“prosumers”). In this scenario an electric aggregator is an entity that joins a group of electric clients, customers, producers, “prosumers” together as a single purchasing unit to negotiate the purchase and sale of electricity. The aggregator conducts research on electricity prices, contract terms and conditions in order to promote better energy prices for their clients and allows small and medium customers to benefit improved market prices.

Model morphisms (MoMo) to enable language independent information models and interoperable business networks

MSc. Dissertation presented at Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of Universidade Nova de Lisboa to obtain the Master degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering

Behavioral and synaptic circuit analysis in models of neuropsychiatric disorders: Dissecting the in vivo role of the postsynaptic density proteins nArgBP2 and Shank3 using genetic engineered mice

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology

integrated method for improving risk analysis using human factors methods and virtual reality

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2009

Laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based CVD risk analysis.

Commentaire de: Gaziano TA, Young CR, Fitzmaurice G, Atwood S, Gaziano JM. Laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based method for assessment of cardiovascular disease risk: the NHANES I Follow-up Study cohort. Lancet. 2008;371(9616):923-31. PMID: 18342687

Morphometric shape analysis using learning vector quantization neural networks - an example distinguishing two microtine vole species

Closely related species may be very difficult to distinguish morphologically, yet sometimes morphology is the only reasonable possibility for taxonomic classification. Here we present learning-vector-quantization artificial neural networks as a powerful tool to classify specimens on the basis of geometric morphometric shape measurements. As an example, we trained a neural network to distinguish between field and root voles from Procrustes transformed landmark coordinates on the dorsal side of the skull, which is so similar in these two species that the human eye cannot make this distinction. Properly trained neural networks misclassified only 3% of specimens. Therefore, we conclude that the capacity of learning vector quantization neural networks to analyse spatial coordinates is a powerful tool among the range of pattern recognition procedures that is available to employ the information content of geometric morphometrics.

An interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis: a case study in the Fella River basin, Italy

This paper presents a prototype of an interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis of natural hazards, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source geospatial software and technologies. The aim of the presented tool is to assist the experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, providing an essential input to the decision-making process in the selection of risk management strategies by responsible authorities and decision makers. This tool is based on the Boundless (OpenGeo Suite) framework and its client-side environment for prototype development, and it is one of the main modules of a web-based collaborative decision support platform in risk management. Within this platform, the users can import necessary maps and information to analyse areas at risk. Based on provided information and parameters, loss scenarios (amount of damages and number of fatalities) of a hazard event are generated on the fly and visualized interactively within the web-GIS interface of the platform. The annualized risk is calculated based on the combination of resultant loss scenarios with different return periods of the hazard event. The application of this developed prototype is demonstrated using a regional data set from one of the case study sites, Fella River of northeastern Italy, of the Marie Curie ITN CHANGES project.

The probabilistic risk analysis of external hazards of an interim storage for spent nuclear fuel

Tässä diplomityössä tehtiin Olkiluodon ydinvoimalaitoksella sijaitsevan käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen allasvarastointiin perustuvan välivaraston todennäköisyysperustainen ulkoisten uhkien riskianalyysi. Todennäköisyysperustainen riskianalyysi (PRA) on yleisesti käytetty riskien tunnistus- ja lähestymistapa ydinvoimalaitoksella. Työn tarkoituksena oli laatia täysin uusi ulkoisten uhkien PRA-analyysi, koska Suomessa ei ole aiemmin tehty vastaavanlaisia tämän tutkimusalueen riskitarkasteluja. Riskitarkastelun motiivina ovat myös maailmalla tapahtuneiden luonnonkatastrofien vuoksi korostunut ulkoisten uhkien rooli käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen välivarastoinnin turvallisuudessa. PRA analyysin rakenne pohjautui tutkimuksen alussa luotuun metodologiaan. Analyysi perustuu mahdollisten ulkoisten uhkien tunnistamiseen pois lukien ihmisen aikaansaamat tahalliset vahingot. Tunnistettujen ulkoisten uhkien esiintymistaajuuksien ja vahingoittamispotentiaalin perusteella ulkoiset uhat joko karsittiin pois tutkimuksessa määriteltyjen karsintakriteerien avulla tai analysoitiin tarkemmin. Tutkimustulosten perusteella voitiin todeta, että tiedot hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ovat epätäydellisiä. Suurinta osaa näistä hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ei ole koskaan esiintynyt eikä todennäköisesti koskaan tule esiintymään Olkiluodon vaikutusalueella tai edes Suomessa. Esimerkiksi salaman iskujen ja öljyaltistuksen roolit ja vaikutukset erilaisten komponenttien käytettävyyteen ovat epävarmasti tunnettuja. Tutkimuksen tuloksia voidaan pitää kokonaisuudessaan merkittävinä, koska niiden perusteella voidaan osoittaa ne ulkoiset uhat, joiden vaikutuksia olisi syytä tutkia tarkemmin. Yksityiskohtaisempi tietoisuus hyvin harvoin esiintyvistä ulkoisista uhista tarkentaisi alkutapahtumataajuuksien estimaatteja.

Entropic risk analysis by a high level decision support system (e-FDSS) for construction SMEs

The method of entropy has been useful in evaluating inconsistency on human judgments. This paper illustrates an entropy-based decision support system called e-FDSS to the solution of multicriterion risk and decision analysis in projects of construction small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It is optimized and solved by fuzzy logic, entropy, and genetic algorithms. A case study demonstrated the use of entropy in e-FDSS on analyzing multiple risk criteria in the predevelopment stage of SME projects. Survey data studying the degree of impact of selected project risk criteria on different projects were input into the system in order to evaluate the preidentified project risks in an impartial environment. Without taking into account the amount of uncertainty embedded in the evaluation process; the results showed that all decision vectors are indeed full of bias and the deviations of decisions are finally quantified providing a more objective decision and risk assessment profile to the stakeholders of projects in order to search and screen the most profitable projects.