A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular it delivers a zero-limiting mean-squared error if the number of forecasts and the number of post-sample time periods is sufficiently large. We also develop a zero-mean test for the average bias. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of this new technique in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from well known surveys is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the bias-corrected average forecast.

A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

The forward and the equity-premium puzzles: a straightforward test of whether they are two symptoms of the same illness

We build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— using information on US domestic financial data only, and provide evidence that it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape SDF’s generated by consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of the pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. In our tests, we address predictability, a defining feature of the Forward Premium Puzzle—FPP— by using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations both in the equity and the foreign markets.

Reproducibility of 6-minute walking test in patients with COPD

The reproducibility of the 6-min walking test (6MWT) needs to be more solidly studied. This study aimed to investigate the reproducibility of two 6MWTs performed on subsequent days in a large and representative sample of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and to quantify the learning effect between the two tests, as well as its determinants.In a retrospective observational study, 1,514 patients with COPD performed two 6MWTs on subsequent days. Other measurements included body composition (dual X-ray absorptiometry), dyspnoea (Medical Research Council scale) and comorbidity (Charlson index).Although the 6MWT was reproducible (intraclass correlation coefficient=0.93), patients walked farther in the second test (391 m, 95% CI 155-585 m versus 418 m, 95% CI 185-605 m; p < 0.0001). on average, the second 6MWT increased by 27 m (or 7%), and 82% of patients improved in the second test. Determinants of improvement >= 42 m in the second test (upper limit of the clinically important change) were as follows: first 6MWT < 350 m, Charlson index < 2 and body mass index < 30 kg.m(-2) (OR 2.49, 0.76 and 0.60, respectively).The 6MWT was statistically reproducible in a representative sample of patients with COPD. However, the vast majority of patients improved significantly in the second test by an average learning effect of 27 m.

Comparison between RT-PCR and the mouse inoculation test for detection of rabies virus in samples kept for long periods under different conditions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Luxation injuries in primary teeth: a retrospective study in children assisted at an emergency service

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The burden of physical activity on type 2 diabetes public healthcare expenditures among adults: a retrospective study

Background: Determinants of public healthcare expenditures in type 2 diabetics are not well investigated in developing nations and, therefore, it is not clear if higher physical activity decreases healthcare costs. The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between physical activity and the expenditures in public healthcare on type 2 diabetes mellitus treatment.Methods: Cross-sectional study carried out in Brazil. A total of 121 type 2 diabetics attended to in two Basic Healthcare Units were evaluated. Public healthcare expenditures in the last year were estimated using a specific standard table. Also evaluated were: socio-demographic variables; chronological age; exogenous insulin use; smoking habits; fasting glucose test; diabetic neuropathy and anthropometric measures. Habitual physical activity was assessed by questionnaire.Results: Age (r = 0.20; p = 0.023), body mass index (r = 0.33; p = 0.001) and waist-to-hip ratio (r = 0.20; p = 0.025) were positively related to expenditures on medication for the treatment of diseases other than diabetes. Insulin use was associated with increased expenditures. Higher physical activity was associated with lower expenditure, provided medication for treatment of diseases other than diabetes (OR = 0.19; p = 0.007) and medical consultations (OR = 0.26; p = 0.029).Conclusions: Type 2 diabetics with higher enrollment in physical activity presented consistently lower healthcare expenditures for the public healthcare system.

Lower intercanine width and gingival margin changes. A retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if changes in the lower intercanine widths during orthodontic treatment with fixed appliances result in gingival margin changes around the lower canines and incisors. METHOD: Pre- and post-treatment intra-oral photographs and orthodontic study models of 178 Caucasian adolescents (101 female, 77 male) were used. All subjects were treated with fixed appliances. The subjects had mean ages of 11.41 (SD: 1.83) years and 14.91 (SD: 1.78) years on their initial and final records respectively. The latter were taken 28 days or more after the appliances had been removed. The inclusion criteria were: Angle Class I or Class II malocclusion (with or without transverse and/or vertical discrepancies); nonextraction treatment; less than 4 mm crowding or spacing; fully erupted lower incisors and good periodontal health. The intercanine widths and the positions of the gingival margins relative to the maximum curvatures of the labial surfaces of the lower canines and incisors were measured with digital calipers. RESULTS: A significant association was found between unaltered intercanine widths and coronal migration of the gingival margins (p = 0.045). There were no significant associations between either increased or reduced intercanine widths and changes in the gingival margins. CONCLUSIONS: Following orthodontic treatment coronal migration of the gingival margins around the lower incisors and canines is more likely to be associated with an unaltered intercanine width.

Influence of lower cutoff values for 100-g oral glucose tolerance test and glycemic profile for identification of pregnant women at excessive fetal growth risk

Objective: To evaluate data from patients with normal oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) results and a normal or impaired glycemic profile (GP) to determine whether lower cutoff values for the OGTT and GP (alone or combined) could identify pregnant women at risk for excessive fetal growth. Methods: We classified 701 pregnant women with positive screening for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) into 2 categories - (1) normal 100-g OGTT and normal GP and (2) normal 100-g OGTT and impaired GP - to evaluate the influence of lower cutoff points in a 100-g OGTT and GP (alone or in combination) for identification of pregnant women at excessive fetal growth risk. The OGTT is considered impaired if 2 or more values are above the normal range, and the GP is impaired if the fasting glucose level or at least 1 postprandial glucose value is above the normal range. To establish the criteria for the OGTT (for fasting and 1, 2, and 3 hours after an oral glucose load, respectively), we considered the mean (75 mg/dL, 120 mg/dL, 113 mg/dL, and 97 mg/dL), mean plus 1 SD (85 mg/dL, 151 mg/dL, 133 mg/dL, and 118 mg/dL), and mean plus 2 SD (95 mg/dL, 182 mg/dL, 153 mg/dL, and 139 mg/dL); and for the GP, we considered the mean and mean plus 1 SD (78 mg/dL and 92 mg/dL for fasting glucose levels and 90 mg/dL and 130 mg/dL for 1- or 2-hour postprandial glucose levels, respectively). Results: Subsequently, the women were reclassified according to the new cutoff points for both tests (OGTT and GP). Consideration of values, in isolation or combination, yielded 6 new diagnostic criteria. Excessive fetal growth was the response variable for analysis of the new cutoff points. Odds ratios and their respective confidence intervals were estimated, as were the sensitivity and specificity related to diagnosis of excessive fetal growth for each criterion. The new cutoff points for the tests, when used independently rather than collectively, did not help to predict excessive fetal growth in the presence of mild hyperglycemia. Conclusion: Decreasing the cutoff point for the 100-g OGTT (for fasting and 1, 2, and 3 hours) to the mean (75 mg/dL, 120 mg/dL, 113 mg/dL, and 97 mg/dL) in association with the GP (mean or mean plus 1 SD-78 mg/dL and 92 mg/dL for the fasting state and 90 mg/dL and 130 mg/dL for 1- or 2-hour postprandial values-increased the sensitivity and specificity, and both criteria had statistically significant predictive power for detection of excessive fetal growth. © 2008 AACE.

Properties advanced of the silicon nitride based ceramics and recent performance on automotive parts manufacture by machining process: Advanced Ceramics, demand Forecast

Automotive parts manufacture by machining process using silicon nitride-based ceramic tool development in Brazil already is a reality. Si 3N4-based ceramic cutting tools offer a high productivity due to their excellent hot hardness, which allows high cutting speeds. Under such conditions the cutting tool must be resistant to a combination of mechanical, thermal and chemical attacks. Silicon nitride based ceramic materials constitute a mature technology with a very broad base of current and potential applications. The best opportunities for Si3N 4-based ceramics include ballistic armor, composite automotive brakes, diesel particulate filters, joint replacement products and others. The goal of this work was to show latter advance in silicon nitride manufacture and its recent evolution on machining process of gray cast iron, compacted graphite iron and Ti-6Al-4V. Materials characterization and machining tests were analyzed by X-Ray Diffraction, Scanning Electron Microscopy, Vickers hardness and toughness fracture and technical norm. In recent works the authors has been proved to advance in microstructural, mechanical and physic properties control. These facts prove that silicon nitride-based ceramic has enough resistance to withstand the impacts inherent to the machining of gray cast iron (CI), compacted graphite iron (CGI) and Ti-6Al-4V (6-4). Copyright © 2008 SAE International.

The success rate of immediate implant placement of mandibular molars: A clinical and radiographic retrospective evaluation between 2 and 8 years

Background: Dental implants, indicated for re-establishing both mastigatory and aesthetic functions, can be placed in the sockets immediately after tooth extraction. Most studies investigate the anterior and upper regions of the dental arch, whereas few examine longitudinal appraisal of immediate implant installation in the mandibular molar region. Objective: The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the success rate of immediate dental implants placement in mandibular molars within a follow-up period as long as 8 years. Materials and methods: Seventy-four mandibular molar implants after non-traumatic tooth extraction between 2002 and 2008 were examined in the study. All implants were evaluated radiographically immediately after prosthesis placement, 1 year after implantation, and by the end of the experimental period, in 2010. Clinical evaluation was done according to [Albrektsson et al. (1986) The International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants, 1, 11-25] success criteria for marginal bone loss. The mean bone losses, calculated as the difference between the final evaluation measures and those taken by the end of the first year of implant, were compared using Kruskal-Wallis test with a significance level of 5%. Results: All implants presented clinical and radiographic stable conditions, that is, 100% success rate. Significant bone loss was not found between final evaluation and that of the first functional year (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Immediate implant placement of mandibular molars proved to be a viable surgical treatment given the high success rate up to 8 years after implantation. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Luxation injuries in primary teeth: a retrospective study in children assisted at an emergency service

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to analyze luxation injuries in children between the ages of 0 and 5 years treated at an emergency service department. A total of 1,703 records, corresponding to a period of 10 years at the Emergency Center of the Baby Clinic at Londrina State University, Brazil, were analyzed. The age, gender, etiologic factors, type of injury, injured teeth, treatment and time interval between injury and treatment were determined for each patient. Of the examined records, 409 patients met the study criteria and included a total of 679 injured teeth. Statistical analyses were carried out using the chi-square test with the level of significance set at 5%. Trauma incidence was higher in boys (57.0%) and in children less than two years of age (40.3%). Falling while walking or running was the most predominant etiologic factor (37.7%), and the most prevalent type of injury was subluxation (32.6%). Luxation injuries decreased with increasing age (p = 0.045). Treatment usually occurred within the first 1-15 days and was significantly associated with the type of trauma (p = 0.041). "Monitor only" was the treatment most frequently observed (74.0%). In conclusion, more luxation injuries were found in younger children, predominantly in boys. Falls resulting from walking or running were the etiologic factor most observed, with subluxation as the most common type of trauma. Treatment usually occurred within the first 15 days after the injury. Despite the severity of these injuries, "monitor only" was the eligible treatment.

Molecular detection of Treponema pallidum sp. pallidum in blood samples of VDRL-seroreactive women with lethal pregnancy outcomes: a retrospective observational study in northern Brazi

INTRODUÇÃO: Apesar das medidas de controle da sífilis materna e congênita estarem disponíveis no Brasil, existem dificuldades da rede em prover o diagnóstico laboratorial da infecção durante o pré-natal. O objetivo deste estudo foi confirmar a presença do Treponema pallidum pela PCR em mulheres com sorologia positiva ao VDRL e com resultado letal da gravidez, isto é, aborto, natimorto e neomorto. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo realizado em mulheres VDRL-sororeativas com resultado negativo da gravidez, admitidas na Fundação Santa Casa de Misericórdia do Pará FSCM-PA entre janeiro e julho de 2004. As amostras de soro e DNA de sangue total foram obtidas no mesmo período da triagem pelo VDRL. Estas amostras foram analisadas pelo ELISA IgG, FTA-Abs IgM e PCR simples (polA). RESULTADOS: Durante o período de estudo, 0,7% (36/4.912) das mulheres com resultado letal da gravidez apresentaram VDRL positivo. O genepolA foi amplificado em 72,7% (24/33) destas mulheres,com 55,6% (20/36) e 94,4% (34/36) apresentando anticorpos tipo IgG e IgM contra o T. pallidum, respectivamente. A comparação destes resultados mostrou uma diferença estatística significativa, sendo que os resultados da PCR versus FTA-Abs Ig Mmostraram-se concordantes, sugerindo que a sífilis materna era uma infecção ativa. A causa básica de morte dos conceptos não foi relatada em 97,2% (35/36) dos casos. Entre as mulheres que foram submetidas ao VDRL no pré-natal, somente quatro das nove soropositivas receberam tratamento. CONCLUSÕES: A elevada frequência de sífilis no grupo de estudo indica a fragilidade do serviço no diagnóstico, tratamento e monitoramento da infecção, comprometendo o controle epidemiológico.

Cephalometric evaluation of the predictability of bimaxillary surgical-orthodontic treatment outcomes in long face pattern patients: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare by means of McNamara as well as Legan and Burstone's cephalometric analyses, both manual and digitized (by Dentofacial Planner Plus and Dolphin Image software) prediction tracings to post-surgical results. METHODS: Pre and post-surgical teleradiographs (6 months) of 25 long face patients subjected to combined orthognathic surgery were selected. Manual and computerized prediction tracings of each patient were performed and cephalometrically compared to post-surgical outcomes. This protocol was repeated in order to evaluate the method error and statistical evaluation was conducted by means of analysis of variance and Tukey's test. RESULTS: A higher frequency of cephalometric variables, which were not statistically different from the actual post-surgical results for the manual method, was observed. It was followed by DFPlus and Dolphin software; in which similar cephalometric values for most variables were observed. CONCLUSION: It was concluded that the manual method seemed more reliable, although the predictability of the evaluated methods (computerized and manual) proved to be reasonably satisfactory and similar.

Exogenous bacterial osteomyelitis in 52 dogs: a retrospective study of etiology and in vitro antimicrobial susceptibility profile (2000-2013)

Background: Most clinical cases of osteomyelitis in dogs involve infectious agents, especially bacteria and fungi. The characterization of these microorganisms may aid in the prevention and treatment of disease.Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate retrospectively microbiological cultures and in vitro antimicrobial susceptibility profile of isolates from 52 cases of bacterial osteomyelitis in long bones of dogs over 2000-2013. In 78% of the cases injuries were caused by a motor vehicle accident, but there were a few cases of dog bites (17%) and ascending infection due to pododermatitis (5%).Animals and methods: The isolated microorganisms were identified based on conventional phenotypic methods. In vitro disk diffusion test was performed using 30 different antimicrobials.Results: The isolates were obtained from femur (28%), humerus (16%), tibia (31%), and radius/ulna (25%). Among 52 cases, culture was positive in 88% of cases. Thirteen genus of different species of microorganisms were isolated. The most common microorganisms isolated were Staphylococcus spp. and Escherichia coli followed by Streptococcus spp., enteric bacteria, Corynebacterium sp. and anaerobic bacteria. In 42% of cases cultures were mixed. The most effective drugs against isolated bacteria were amoxicillin and clavulanate potassium (79%) followed by ceftriaxone (69%). High-resistance rates were documented against azithromycin (80%), penicillin (59%), and clindamycin (59%).Conclusions: The present study highlights diverse etiologic agents in cases of infectious bacterial osteomyelitis, with predominance of Staphylococcus genus, and reinforces the importance of obtaining cultures and susceptibility profiles given the high rates of antimicrobial resistance.