Vehicle integration and evaluation of advanced restraint systems. Phase A - test report: Volvo-to-Volvo [and] Volvo-to-barrier test.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

A failure tolerant filing system,

"COO-1469-0200."

Interference between propagating changes and its effect on system failure

Computer-based, socio-technical systems projects are frequently failures. In particular, computer-based information systems often fail to live up to their promise. Part of the problem lies in the uncertainty of the effect of combining the subsystems that comprise the complete system; i.e. the system's emergent behaviour cannot be predicted from a knowledge of the subsystems. This paper suggests uncertainty management is a fundamental unifying concept in analysis and design of complex systems and goes on to indicate that this is due to the co-evolutionary nature of the requirements and implementation of socio-technical systems. The paper shows a model of the propagation of a system change that indicates that the introduction of two or more changes over time can cause chaotic emergent behaviour.

Reliability analysis with suspended items

Reliability analysis has several important engineering applications. Designers and operators of equipment are often interested in the probability of the equipment operating successfully to a given age - this probability is known as the equipment's reliability at that age. Reliability information is also important to those charged with maintaining an item of equipment, as it enables them to model and evaluate alternative maintenance policies for the equipment. In each case, information on failures and survivals of a typical sample of items is used to estimate the required probabilities as a function of the item's age, this process being one of many applications of the statistical techniques known as distribution fitting. In most engineering applications, the estimation procedure must deal with samples containing survivors (suspensions or censorings); this thesis focuses on several graphical estimation methods that are widely used for analysing such samples. Although these methods have been current for many years, they share a common shortcoming: none of them is continuously sensitive to changes in the ages of the suspensions, and we show that the resulting reliability estimates are therefore more pessimistic than necessary. We use a simple example to show that the existing graphical methods take no account of any service recorded by suspensions beyond their respective previous failures, and that this behaviour is inconsistent with one's intuitive expectations. In the course of this thesis, we demonstrate that the existing methods are only justified under restricted conditions. We present several improved methods and demonstrate that each of them overcomes the problem described above, while reducing to one of the existing methods where this is justified. Each of the improved methods thus provides a realistic set of reliability estimates for general (unrestricted) censored samples. Several related variations on these improved methods are also presented and justified. - i

Gas boosted solar water heaters : Queensland case studies of installation practices in new homes

Because of the greenhouse gas emissions implications of the market dominating electric hot water systems, governments in Australia have implemented policies and programs to encourage the uptake of solar water heaters (SWHs) in the residential market as part of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The cost-benefit analysis that usually accompanies all government policy and program design could be simplistically reduced to the ratio of expected greenhouse gas reductions of SWH to the cost of a SWH. The national Register of Solar Water Heaters specifies how many renewable energy certificates (RECs) are allocated to complying SWHs according to their expected performance, and hence greenhouse gas reductions, in different climates. Neither REC allocations nor rebates are tied to actual performance of systems. This paper examines the performance of instantaneous gas-boosted solar water heaters installed in new residences in a housing estate in south-east Queensland in the period 2007 – 2010. The evidence indicates systemic failures in installation practices, resulting in zero solar performance or dramatic underperformance (estimated average 43% solar contribution). The paper will detail the faults identified, and how these faults were eventually diagnosed and corrected. The impacts of these system failures on end-use consumers are discussed before concluding with a brief overview of areas where further research is required in order to more fully understand whole of supply chain implications.

Exploring antecedent factors in (Queensland) secondary school teachers’ early retirement intentions

Mature-age secondary teachers offer teaching a wealth of knowledge and skills that can contribute greatly to the quality of education. However, as with the greater workforce, there is an increasing trend for mature-age teachers to elect to retire early or to move into other work. Despite studies suggesting that teachers may be negatively affected by stress, there has been no research into the attitudes of mature-age teachers relating to early retirement and whether these or other factors are instrumental in their decision to retire from teaching. There is, however, a broad range of studies, commentary and analyses on ageing and work that can be utilised to develop a powerful analytical framework to identify the factors that can potentially influence the decision to take early retirement. This study examined the antecedent factors which influenced the early retirement decisions in 16 Queensland secondary school teachers. This study examined factors relating to the teachers decision to retire early and explored school and other factors relating to their decision. In addition, differences between urban and rural secondary school teachers were examined. Given the potentially complex nature of teachers. retirement decisions, the study utilised a qualitative approach. The study found that retired secondary teachers are confronted by ageing realities that are not responded to adequately by the education system, and participants expressed a general dissatisfaction with aspects of school management, especially as it related to bullying and non-inclusion in teaching-related decision making. This study also identified organisational issues within Education Queensland which contributed to system failures that affected mature-age teachers that need to be addressed. This study is one of the first studies to explore the factors influencing early retirement decisions in teachers. The implications of these factors on policy for Education Queensland and for workplace policies in general are discussed.

The nature of errors made by drivers [Austroads Publication no: AP-R378-11]

It is important that we understand the factors and conditions that shape driver behaviour – those conditions within the road transport system that contribute to driver error and the situations where driver non-compliance to road regulations is likely. This report presents the findings derived from a program of research investigating the nature of errors made by drivers, involving a literature review and an on-road study. The review indicates that, despite significant investigation, the role of different error types in road traffic crashes remains unclear, as does the role of the wider road transport system failures in driver error causation.

The role of human factors in led outdoor activity accidents: literature review and exploratory analysis

While the exact rate of incidence is unknown (due to the paucity of exposure data), it is acknowledged that safety compromising accidents and incidents occur in the led outdoor activity domain, and that they represent an important issue. Despite this, compared to other safety critical domains, very little is currently known about the key causal factors involved in such accidents and incidents. This report presents the findings derived from a review of the literature, the aim of which was to identify the Human Factors-related issues involved in accidents and incidents occurring in this area. In addition, to demonstrate the utility of systems-based, theoretically underpinned accident analysis methodologies for identifying the systemic and human contribution to accidents and incidents occurring in the led outdoor activity domain, three case-study accidents were analysed using two such approaches. In conclusion, the review identified a range of causal factors cited in the literature; however, it was noted that the majority of the research undertaken to date lacks theoretical underpinning and focuses mainly on instructor or activity leader causal factors, as opposed to the wider system failures involved. The accident analysis presented highlighted the utility of systems-based, theoretically underpinned accident analysis methodologies for analysing and learning from accidents and incidents in the led outdoor activity sector. In closing, the need for further research in the area is articulated, in particular focussing on the development of standardised and universally accepted accident and incident reporting systems and databases, the development of data driven, theoretically underpinned causal factor taxonomies, and the development and application of systems-based accident analysis methodologies.

Systems-based approach to investigate unsafe pedestrian behaviour at level crossings

Crashes at level crossings are a major issue worldwide. In Australia, as well as in other countries, the number of crashes with vehicles has declined in the past years, while the number of crashes involving pedestrians seems to have remained unchanged. A systematic review of research related to pedestrian behaviour highlighted a number of important scientific gaps in current knowledge. The complexity of such intersections imposes particular constraints to the understanding of pedestrians’ crossing behaviour. A new systems-based framework, called Pedestrian Unsafe Level Crossing framework (PULC) was developed. The PULC organises contributing factors to crossing behaviour on different system levels as per the hierarchical classification of Jens Rasmussen’s Framework for Risk Management. In addition, the framework adapts James Reason’s classification to distinguish between different types of unsafe behaviour. The framework was developed as a tool for collection of generalizable data that could be used to predict current or future system failures or to identify aspects of the system that require further safety improvement. To give it an initial support, the PULC was applied to the analysis of qualitative data from focus groups discussions. A total number of 12 pedestrians who regularly crossed the same level crossing were asked about their daily experience and their observations of others’ behaviour which allowed the extraction and classification of factors associated with errors and violations. Two case studies using Rasmussen’s AcciMap technique are presented as an example of potential application of the framework. A discussion on the identified multiple risk contributing factors and their interactions is provided, in light of the benefits of applying a systems approach to the understanding of the origins of individual’s behaviour. Potential actions towards safety improvement are discussed.

Eating for health and the environment: Australian regulatory responses for dietary change

The Australian food system significantly contributes to a range of key environmental issues including harmful greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, soil desertification, biodiversity loss and water scarcity. At the same time, the Australian s food system is a key cause of public health nutrition issues that stem from the co-existence of over- and under-consumption of dietary energy and nutrients. Within these challenges lie synergies and opportunities because a diet that has a lower environmental impact generally aligns with good nutrition. Australian State and Federal initiatives to influence food consumption patterns focus on individual body weight and ‘soft law’ interventions. These regulatory approaches, by focusing on select symptoms of food system failures, are fragmented, reductionist and inefficient. In order to illustrate this point, this paper will explore Australian regulatory responses to diet-related illnesses. The analysis will support the argument that only when regulatory responses to diets become embedded within reform of the current food system will substantial improvements to human and planetary health be achieved.

Inter-organisational characteristics of resilience in a post-disaster recovery context

During post-disaster recovery, an infrastructure system may be subject to a number of disturbances originating from several other interdependent infrastructures. These disturbances might result in a series of system failures, thereby having immediate impact on societal living conditions. The inability to detect signs of disturbance from one infrastructure during recovery might cause significant disruptive effects on other infrastructure via the interconnection that exist among them. In such circumstances, it clearly appears that critical infrastructures' interdependencies affect the recovery of each individual infrastructure, as well as those of other interdependent infrastructure systems. This is why infrastructure resilience needs to be improved in function of those interdependencies, particularly during the recovery period to avoid the occurrence of a ‘disaster of disaster’ scenario. Viewed from this perspective, resilience is achieved through an inter-organisational collaboration between the different organisations involved in the reconstruction of interdependent infrastructure systems. This paper suggests that to some extent, the existing degree of interconnectedness between these infrastructure systems can also be found in their resilience ability during post-disaster recovery. For instance, without a resilient energy system, a large-scale power outage could affect simultaneously all the interdependent infrastructures after a disaster. Thus, breaking down the silos of resilience would be the first step in minimizing the risks of disaster failures from one infrastructure to cascade or escalate to other interconnected systems.

Plastic limit solution for the response of plate anchors under combined translational and torsional undrained loading

Plate anchors are increasingly being used to moor large floating offshore structures in deep and ultradeep water. These facilities impart substantial vertical uplift loading to plate anchors. However, extreme operating conditions such as hurricane loading often result in partial system failures, with significant change in the orientation of the remaining intact mooring lines. The purpose of this study is to investigate the undrained pure translational (parallel to plate) and torsional bearing capacity of anchor plates idealized as square and rectangular shaped plates. Moreover, the interaction response of plate anchors under combined translational and torsional loading is studied using a modified plastic limit analysis (PLA) approach. The previous PLA formulation which did not account for shear-normal force interaction on the vertical end faces of the plate provides an exact solution to the idealized problem of an infinitely thin plate but only an approximate solution to the problem of a plate of finite thickness. This is also confirmed by the three-dimensional finite element (FE) results, since the PLA values exceed FE results as the thickness of the plate increases. By incorporating the shear-normal interaction relationship in the modified solution, the torsional bearing capacity factors, as well as the plate interaction responses are enhanced as they show satisfactory agreement with the FE results. The interaction relationship is then obtained for square and rectangular plates of different aspect ratios and thicknesses. The new interaction relationships could also be used as an associated plastic failure locus for combined shear and torsional loading to predict plastic displacements and rotations in translational and torsional loading modes as well. Copyright © 2011 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE).

Logging and Recovery in a Highly Concurrent Database

This report addresses the problem of fault tolerance to system failures for database systems that are to run on highly concurrent computers. It assumes that, in general, an application may have a wide distribution in the lifetimes of its transactions. Logging remains the method of choice for ensuring fault tolerance. Generational garbage collection techniques manage the limited disk space reserved for log information; this technique does not require periodic checkpoints and is well suited for applications with a broad range of transaction lifetimes. An arbitrarily large collection of parallel log streams provide the necessary disk bandwidth.

Robust fault detection using consistency techniques for uncertainty handling

Often practical performance of analytical redundancy for fault detection and diagnosis is decreased by uncertainties prevailing not only in the system model, but also in the measurements. In this paper, the problem of fault detection is stated as a constraint satisfaction problem over continuous domains with a big number of variables and constraints. This problem can be solved using modal interval analysis and consistency techniques. Consistency techniques are then shown to be particularly efficient to check the consistency of the analytical redundancy relations (ARRs), dealing with uncertain measurements and parameters. Through the work presented in this paper, it can be observed that consistency techniques can be used to increase the performance of a robust fault detection tool, which is based on interval arithmetic. The proposed method is illustrated using a nonlinear dynamic model of a hydraulic system

SQualTrack: A Tool for Robust Fault Detection

One of the techniques used to detect faults in dynamic systems is analytical redundancy. An important difficulty in applying this technique to real systems is dealing with the uncertainties associated with the system itself and with the measurements. In this paper, this uncertainty is taken into account by the use of intervals for the parameters of the model and for the measurements. The method that is proposed in this paper checks the consistency between the system's behavior, obtained from the measurements, and the model's behavior; if they are inconsistent, then there is a fault. The problem of detecting faults is stated as a quantified real constraint satisfaction problem, which can be solved using the modal interval analysis (MIA). MIA is used because it provides powerful tools to extend the calculations over real functions to intervals. To improve the results of the detection of the faults, the simultaneous use of several sliding time windows is proposed. The result of implementing this method is semiqualitative tracking (SQualTrack), a fault-detection tool that is robust in the sense that it does not generate false alarms, i.e., if there are false alarms, they indicate either that the interval model does not represent the system adequately or that the interval measurements do not represent the true values of the variables adequately. SQualTrack is currently being used to detect faults in real processes. Some of these applications using real data have been developed within the European project advanced decision support system for chemical/petrochemical manufacturing processes and are also described in this paper