人口空间数据误差分析研究

Spatial population data, obtained through the pixeling method, makes many related researches more convenient. However, the limited methods of precision analysis prevent the spread of spatial distribution methods and cumber the application of the spatial population data. This paper systematically analyzes the different aspects of the spatial population data precision, and re-calculates them with the reformed method, which makes breakthrough for the spread of the pixeling method and provides support and reference for the application of spatial population data. The paper consists of the following parts: (2) characters of the error; (2) origins of the error; (3) advancement on the calculating methods of the spatial population data. In the first place, based on the analysis of the error trait, two aspects of the spatial population data precision are characterized and analyzed: numerical character and spatial distributing character. The later one, placed greater emphasis on in this paper, is depicted in two spatial scales: county and town. It is always essential and meaningful to the research in this paper that spatial distribution is as important as numerical value in analyzing error of the spatial distributed data. The result illustrates that the spatial population data error appears spatially in group, although it is random in the aspect of data statistics, all of that shows there lies spatial systematic error. Secondly, this paper comes to conclude and validate the lineal correlation between the residential land area (from 1:50000 map and taken as real area) and population. Meanwhile, it makes particular analysis on the relationship between the residential land area, which is obtained from the land use map and the population in three different spatial scales: village, town and county, and makes quantitative description of the residential density variation in different topological environment. After that, it analyzes the residential distributing traits and precision. With the consideration of the above researches, it reaches the conclusion that the error of the spatial distributed population is caused by a series of factors, such as the compactness of the residents, loss of the residential land, the population density of the city. Eventually, the paper ameliorates the method of pixeling the population data with the help of the analysis on error characters and causes. It tests 2-class regionalization based on the 1-class regionalization of China, and resorts the residential data from the land use map. In aid of GIS and the comprehensive analysis of various data source, it constructs models in each 2-class district to calculate spatial population data. After all, LinYi Region is selected as the study area. In this area, spatial distributing population is calculated and the precision is analyzed. All it illustrates is that new spatial distributing population has been improved much. The research is fundamental work. It adopts large amounts of data in different types and contains many figures to make convincing and detailed conclusions.

The same but different – how to introduce variation within computing assessment tasks

In this article, suggestions are made for introducing an individual element into formative assessment of the ability to use computer software for statistics.

A Census-based longitudinal study of variations in survival amongst residents of nursing and residential homes in Northern Ireland

Background: despite the intensive services provided to residents of care homes, information on death rates is not routinely available for this population in the UK. Objective: to quantify mortality rates across the care home population of Northern Ireland, and assess variation by type of care home and resident characteristics. Design: a prospective, Census-based cohort study, with 5-year follow-up. Participants: all 9,072 residents of care homes for people aged 65 and over at the time of the 2001 census with a special emphasis on the 2,112 residents admitted during the year preceding census day. Measurements: age, sex, self-reported health, marital status, residence (not in care home, residential home, dual registered home, nursing home), elderly mentally infirm care provision. Results: the median survival among nursing home residents was 2.33 years (95% CI 2.25–2.59), for dual registered homes 2.75 (95% CI 2.42–3.17) and for residential homes 4.51 (95% CI 3.92–4.92) years. Age, sex and self-reported health showed weaker associations in the sicker populations in nursing homes compared to those in residential care or among the non-institutionalised. Conclusions: the high mortality in care homes indicates that places in care homes are reserved for the most severely ill and dependent. Death rates may not be an appropriate care quality measure for this population, but may serve as a useful adjunct for clinical staff and the planning of care home provision.

Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured.

Variation of clinical outcomes used in glaucoma randomised controlled trials:a systematic review

Purpose: In randomised clinical trials (RCTs) the selection of appropriate outcomes is crucial to the assessment of whether one intervention is better than another. The purpose of this review is to identify different clinical outcomes reported in glaucoma trials.

Methods We conducted a systematic review of glaucoma RCTs. A sample or selection of glaucoma trials were included bounded by a time frame (between 2006 and March 2012). Only studies in English language were considered. All clinical measured and reported outcomes were included. The possible variations of clinical outcomes were defined prior to data analysis. Information on reported clinical outcomes was tabulated and analysed using descriptive statistics. Other data recorded included type of intervention and glaucoma, duration of the study, defined primary outcomes, and outcomes used for sample size calculation, if nominated.

Results The search strategy identified 4323 potentially relevant abstracts. There were 315 publications retrieved, of which 233 RCTs were included. A total of 967 clinical measures were reported. There were large variations in the definitions used to describe different outcomes and their measures. Intraocular pressure was the most commonly reported outcome (used in 201 RCTs, 86%) with a total of 422 measures (44%). Safety outcomes were commonly reported in 145 RCTs (62%) whereas visual field outcomes were used in 38 RCTs (16%).

Conclusions There is a large variation in the reporting of clinical outcomes in glaucoma RCTs. This lack of standardisation may impair the ability to evaluate the evidence of glaucoma interventions.

Not all jellyfish are equal: isotopic evidence for inter- and intraspecific variation in jellyfish trophic ecology

Jellyfish are highly topical within studies of pelagic food-webs and there is a growing realisation that their role is more complex than once thought. Efforts being made to include jellyfish within fisheries and ecosystem models are an important step forward, but our present understanding of their underlying trophic ecology can lead to their oversimplification in these models. Gelatinous zooplankton represent a polyphyletic assemblage spanning >2,000 species that inhabit coastal seas to the deep-ocean and employ a wide variety of foraging strategies. Despite this diversity, many contemporary modelling approaches include jellyfish as a single functional group feeding at one or two trophic levels at most. Recent reviews have drawn attention to this issue and highlighted the need for improved communication between biologists and theoreticians if this problem is to be overcome. We used stable isotopes to investigate the trophic ecology of three co-occurring scyphozoan jellyfish species (Aurelia aurita, Cyanea lamarckii and C. capillata) within a temperate, coastal food-web in the NE Atlantic. Using information on individual size, time of year and ;delta C-13 and delta N-15 stable isotope values, we examined: (1) whether all jellyfish could be considered as a single functional group, or showed distinct inter-specific differences in trophic ecology; (2) Were size-based shifts in trophic position, found previously in A. aurita, a common trait across species?; (3) When considered collectively, did the trophic position of three sympatric species remain constant over time? Differences in delta N-15 (trophic position) were evident between all three species, with size-based and temporal shifts in delta N-15 apparent in A. aurita and C. capillata. The isotopic niche width for all species combined increased throughout the season, reflecting temporal shifts in trophic position and seasonal succession in these gelatinous species. Taken together, these findings support previous assertions that jellyfish require more robust inclusion in marine fisheries or ecosystem models.

Variation in treatment strategies of Swiss general practitioners for subclinical hypothyroidism in older adults.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: As the best management of subclinical hypothyroidism is controversial, we aimed to assess variations in treatment strategies depending on different Swiss regions, physician and patient characteristics. METHODS: We performed a case-based survey among general practitioners (GPs) in different Swiss regions, which consisted of eight hypothetical cases presenting a female patient with subclinical hypothyroidism and nonspecific complaints differing by age, vitality status and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration. RESULTS: A total of 262 GPs participated in the survey. There was considerable variation in the levothyroxine starting dose chosen by GPs, ranging from 25 µg to 100 µg. Across the Swiss regions, GPs in the Bern region were significantly more inclined to treat, with a higher probability of initiating treatment (60%, p = 0.01) and higher mean starting doses (45 µg, p <0.01) compared with the French-speaking region (44%, 36 µg); the Zurich region had intermediate values (52%, 39 µg). We found no association between treatment rate and other physician characteristics. GPs were more reluctant to initiate treatment in 85-year-old than in 70-year-old women (odds ratio [OR] 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.94), and more likely to treat women with a TSH of 15 mU/l than those with a TSH of 6mU/l (OR 8.71, 95% CI 6.21-12.20). CONCLUSIONS: There are strong variations in treatment strategies for elderly patients with subclinical hypothyroidism across different Swiss regions, including use of higher starting doses than the recommended 25 µg in the Swiss guidelines, which recommend a starting dose of 25 µg. These variations likely reflect the current uncertainty about the benefits of treatment, which arise from the current lack of evidence from adequately powered clinical trials.

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.

Sampling the soil in long-term forest plots: The implications of spatial variation

Long-term monitoring of forest soils as part of a pan-European network to detect environmental change depends on an accurate determination of the mean of the soil properties at each monitoring event. Forest soil is known to be very variable spatially, however. A study was undertaken to explore and quantify this variability at three forest monitoring plots in Britain. Detailed soil sampling was carried out, and the data from the chemical analyses were analysed by classical statistics and geostatistics. An analysis of variance showed that there were no consistent effects from the sample sites in relation to the position of the trees. The variogram analysis showed that there was spatial dependence at each site for several variables and some varied in an apparently periodic way. An optimal sampling analysis based on the multivariate variogram for each site suggested that a bulked sample from 36 cores would reduce error to an acceptable level. Future sampling should be designed so that it neither targets nor avoids trees and disturbed ground. This can be achieved best by using a stratified random sampling design.

Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Crop production is inherently sensitive to fluctuations in weather and climate and is expected to be impacted by climate change. To understand how this impact may vary across the globe many studies have been conducted to determine the change in yield of several crops to expected changes in climate. Changes in climate are typically derived from a single to no more than a few General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study examines the uncertainty introduced to a crop impact assessment when 14 GCMs are used to determine future climate. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) was applied over a global domain to simulate the productivity of soybean and spring wheat under baseline climate conditions and under climate conditions consistent with the 2050s under the A1B SRES emissions scenario as simulated by 14 GCMs. Baseline yield simulations were evaluated against global country-level yield statistics to determine the model's ability to capture observed variability in production. The impact of climate change varied between crops, regions, and by GCM. The spread in yield projections due to GCM varied between no change and a reduction of 50%. Without adaptation yield response was linearly related to the magnitude of local temperature change. Therefore, impacts were greatest for countries at northernmost latitudes where warming is predicted to be greatest. However, these countries also exhibited the greatest potential for adaptation to offset yield losses by shifting the crop growing season to a cooler part of the year and/or switching crop variety to take advantage of an extended growing season. The relative magnitude of impacts as simulated by each GCM was not consistent across countries and between crops. It is important, therefore, for crop impact assessments to fully account for GCM uncertainty in estimating future climates and to be explicit about assumptions regarding adaptation.

Peak residential electricity demand and social practices: Deriving flexibility and greenhouse gas intensities from time use and locational data

Peak residential electricity demand takes place when people conduct simultaneous activities at specific times of the day. Social practices generate patterns of demand and can help understand why, where, with whom and when energy services are used at peak time. The aim of this work is to make use of recent UK time use and locational data to better understand: (i) how a set of component indices on synchronisation, variation, sharing and mobility indicate flexibility to shift demand; and (ii) the links between people’s activities and peaks in greenhouse gases’ intensities. The analysis is based on a recent UK time use dataset, providing 1 minute interval data from GPS devices and 10 minute data from diaries and questionnaires for 175 data days comprising 153 respondents. Findings show how greenhouse gases’ intensities and flexibility to shift activities vary throughout the day. Morning peaks are characterised by high levels of synchronisation, shared activities and occupancy, with low variation of activities. Evening peaks feature low synchronisation, and high spatial mobility variation of activities. From a network operator perspective, the results indicate that periods with lower flexibility may be prone to more significant local network loads due to the synchronization of electricity-demanding activities.

A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions in the residential sector of major Canadian cities

One of the most significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Canada is the buildings sector, with over 30% of national energy end-use occurring in buildings. Energy use must be addressed to reduce emissions from the buildings sector, as nearly 70% of all Canada’s energy used in the residential sector comes from fossil sources. An analysis of GHG emissions from the existing residential building stock for the year 2010 has been conducted for six Canadian cities with different climates and development histories: Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, and Halifax. Variation across these cities is seen in their 2010 GHG emissions, due to climate, characteristics of the building stock, and energy conversion technologies, with Halifax having the highest per capita emissions at 5.55 tCO2e/capita and Montreal having the lowest at 0.32 tCO2e/capita. The importance of the provincial electricity grid’s carbon intensity is emphasized, along with era of construction, occupancy, floor area, and climate. Approaches to achieving deep emissions reductions include innovative retrofit financing and city level residential energy conservation by-laws; each region should seek location-appropriate measures to reduce energy demand within its residential housing stock, as well as associated GHG emissions.

CRANIOMETRIC VARIATION AND SUBSPECIFIC DIFFERENTIATION IN THRICHOMYS APEREOIDES IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL (RODENTIA, ECHIMYIDAE)

Thrichomys apereoides is an echimyid rodent which ranges in distribution from northeastern and central Brazil into Paraguay. Five subspecies are recognized, although each form is not well characterized and diagnosis is based primarily in pelage color variation. In this study we employed procedures from multivariate statistics to assess the systematic status of subspecies described from northeastern Brazil. The results of the craniometric analysis cannot be reconciled with the subspecies currently recognized for northeastern Brazil. Populations assigned to T. a. laurentius and T. a. inermis form a continuum of variation in cranial size, although they differ in cranial shape from a population from the locality of Bodoco in the state of Pernambuco. The implications of these findings for the systematics of T. apereoides are discussed.

Diurnal variation in oral temperature, sleepiness and performance of high school girls

Evaluation of rhythmic fluctuations cf physical and mental variables should be of special significance for the understanding of students' performance and setting the schedules of school activities. The present study investigated the pattern of diurnal variation in oral temperature, sleepiness and performance of a group of adolescents undergoing a daytime school schedule. Eighteen girls (mean age 16 years-old), who attended the same class from 0715h to 1645h, were tested on seven days. They measured their oral temperature, quantified their sleepiness level by means of a visual analogue scale, and completed the following tests: letter cancellation test, addition test, and a simple motor task. One-way ANOVA statistics for repeated measures was used in order to verify the effect of test time on oral temperature,sleepiness and performance. Possible correlations between the level of sleepiness and performance were investigated by means of Spearman rank correlation. The results revealed significant time of day effect cn all variables, except for the number of addition errors. Oral temperature values showed an increase from morning to afternoon. Letter cancellation, motor task and addition scores increased from early morning to late afternoon, showing rapid fluctuations throughout the day. Sleepiness level was negatively correlated with letter cancellation scores during the first three tests of the day. In agreement with other work, the diurnal variation of oral temperature, letter cancellation and addition test showed an improvement as the day progressed. Sleepiness, on the other hand, decreased throughout the day, with the highest level associated with the first test of the day, suggesting a circadian pattern of variation rather than a cumulative effect due to school activities.

Tradition, Change and Variation : Past and Present Trends in Public Old-age Care

The general aim of this dissertation is to describe and analyse how public old-age care in Sweden has developed and changed during the last century. The study applies a provider perspective on how care has been planned and professionally carried out. A broader social policy perspective, studying old-age care at central/national as well as local/municipal level, is also developed. A special focus is directed at the large local variation in care and services for the elderly. The empirical base is comprised of official documents and other public sources, survey data from interviews with elderly recipients of public old-age care, and official statistics on publicly financed and controlled old-age care and services. Study I addresses the development of old-age care in Sweden during the twentieth century by studying an important occupation in this field – the supervisors and their professional roles, tasks and working conditions. Throughout, the roles of supervisors have followed the prevailing official policy on the proper way to provide care for elderly people in Sweden; from poor relief at the beginning of the 1900s, via a generous level of services in the 1960s and 1970s, to today’s restricted and economy-controlled mode of operation. Study II describes and compares two main forms of public old-age care in Sweden today, home help services and institutional care. The care-load found in home-based care was comparable to and sometimes even larger than in service-homes and other institutions, indicating that large care needs among elderly people in Sweden today can be met in their homes as well as in institutional settings. Studies III and IV analyse the local variation in public old-age care in Sweden. During the last decades there has been an overall decline in home help services. The coverage of home help for elderly people shows large differences between municipalities throughout this period, and the relative variation has increased. The local disparity seems to depend more on historical factors, e.g., previous coverage rates, than on the present municipal situation in levels of need or local economy and politics. In an introductory part the four papers are linked together by an outline of the demographic situation and the social policy model for old-age care in Sweden. Trends that have been apparent over time, e.g. professionalisation and market orientation, are traced and discussed. Conflicts between prevailing ideologies are analysed, in regards to for instance home-based and institution-based care, social and medical culture, and local and central levels of decision-making. ’Welfare municipality’, ‘path dependency’, and ‘decentralisation’ are suggested as a conceptual framework for describing the large and increasing local variations in old-age care. Finally, implications of the four studies with regard to old-age care policy and further research are discussed.