Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

A medical data reliability assessment model

There is currently a strong focus worldwide on the potential of large-scale Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems to cut costs and improve patient outcomes through increased efficiency. This is accomplished by aggregating medical data from isolated Electronic Medical Record databases maintained by different healthcare providers. Concerns about the privacy and reliability of Electronic Health Records are crucial to healthcare service consumers. Traditional security mechanisms are designed to satisfy confidentiality, integrity, and availability requirements, but they fail to provide a measurement tool for data reliability from a data entry perspective. In this paper, we introduce a Medical Data Reliability Assessment (MDRA) service model to assess the reliability of medical data by evaluating the trustworthiness of its sources, usually the healthcare provider which created the data and the medical practitioner who diagnosed the patient and authorised entry of this data into the patient’s medical record. The result is then expressed by manipulating health record metadata to alert medical practitioners relying on the information to possible reliability problems.

The reliability of information on work-related injuries available from hospitalisation data in Australia

Objective: To examine the reliability of work-related activity coding for injury-related hospitalisations in Australia. Method: A random sample of 4373 injury-related hospital separations from 1 July 2002 to 30 June 2004 were obtained from a stratified random sample of 50 hospitals across 4 states in Australia. From this sample, cases were identified as work-related if they contained an ICD-10-AM work-related activity code (U73) allocated by either: (i) the original coder; (ii) an independent auditor, blinded to the original code; or (iii) a research assistant, blinded to both the original and auditor codes, who reviewed narrative text extracted from the medical record. The concordance of activity coding and number of cases identified as work-related using each method were compared. Results: Of the 4373 cases sampled, 318 cases were identified as being work-related using any of the three methods for identification. The original coder identified 217 and the auditor identified 266 work-related cases (68.2% and 83.6% of the total cases identified, respectively). Around 10% of cases were only identified through the text description review. The original coder and auditor agreed on the assignment of work-relatedness for 68.9% of cases. Conclusions and Implications: The current best estimates of the frequency of hospital admissions for occupational injury underestimate the burden by around 32%. This is a substantial underestimate that has major implications for public policy, and highlights the need for further work on improving the quality and completeness of routine, administrative data sources for a more complete identification of work-related injuries.

A review on degradation models in reliability analysis

With increasingly complex engineering assets and tight economic requirements, asset reliability becomes more crucial in Engineering Asset Management (EAM). Improving the reliability of systems has always been a major aim of EAM. Reliability assessment using degradation data has become a significant approach to evaluate the reliability and safety of critical systems. Degradation data often provide more information than failure time data for assessing reliability and predicting the remnant life of systems. In general, degradation is the reduction in performance, reliability, and life span of assets. Many failure mechanisms can be traced to an underlying degradation process. Degradation phenomenon is a kind of stochastic process; therefore, it could be modelled in several approaches. Degradation modelling techniques have generated a great amount of research in reliability field. While degradation models play a significant role in reliability analysis, there are few review papers on that. This paper presents a review of the existing literature on commonly used degradation models in reliability analysis. The current research and developments in degradation models are reviewed and summarised in this paper. This study synthesises these models and classifies them in certain groups. Additionally, it attempts to identify the merits, limitations, and applications of each model. It provides potential applications of these degradation models in asset health and reliability prediction.

A review on reliability models with covariates

Modern Engineering Asset Management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Suitable mathematical models that are capable of predicting Time-to-Failure (TTF) and the probability of failure in future time are essential. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of assets is estimated using failure time data. However, in most real-life situations and industry applications, the lifetime of assets is influenced by different risk factors, which are called covariates. The fundamental notion in reliability theory is the failure time of a system and its covariates. These covariates change stochastically and may influence and/or indicate the failure time. Research shows that many statistical models have been developed to estimate the hazard of assets or individuals with covariates. An extensive amount of literature on hazard models with covariates (also termed covariate models), including theory and practical applications, has emerged. This paper is a state-of-the-art review of the existing literature on these covariate models in both the reliability and biomedical fields. One of the major purposes of this expository paper is to synthesise these models from both industrial reliability and biomedical fields and then contextually group them into non-parametric and semi-parametric models. Comments on their merits and limitations are also presented. Another main purpose of this paper is to comprehensively review and summarise the current research on the development of the covariate models so as to facilitate the application of more covariate modelling techniques into prognostics and asset health management.

The family attitude scale : reliability and validity of a new scale for measuring the emotional climate of families

Research on outcomes from psychiatric disorders has highlighted the importance of expressed emotion (EE), but its cost-effective measurement remains a challenge. This article describes development of the Family Attitude Scale (FAS), a 30-item instrument that can be completed by any informant. Its psychometric characteristics are reported in parents of undergraduate students and in 70 families with a schizophrenic member. The total FAS had high internal consistency in all samples, and reports of angry behaviour in FAS items showed acceptable inter-rater agreement. The FAS was associated with the reported anger, anger expression and anxiety of respondents. Substantial associations between the parents' FAS and the anger and anger expression of students was also observed. Parents of schizophrenic patients had higher FAS scores than parents of students, and the FAS was higher if disorder duration was longer or patient functioning was poorer. Hostility, high criticism and low warmth on the Camberwell Family Interview (CFI) were associated with a more negative FAS. The highest FAS in the family was a good predictor of a highly critical environment on the CFI. The FAS is a reliable and valid indicator of relationship stress and expressed anger that has wide applicability.

Optimal allocation and sizing of capacitors to minimize the transmission line loss and to improve the voltage profile

To allocate and size capacitors in a distribution system, an optimization algorithm, called Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO), is employed in this paper. The objective is to minimize the transmission line loss cost plus capacitors cost. During the optimization procedure, the bus voltage, the feeder current and the reactive power flowing back to the source side should be maintained within standard levels. To validate the proposed method, the semi-urban distribution system that is connected to bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) is used. This 37-bus distribution system has 22 loads being located in the secondary side of a distribution substation (33/11 kV). Reducing the transmission line loss in a standard system, in which the transmission line loss consists of only about 6.6 percent of total power, the capabilities of the proposed technique are seen to be validated.

The reliability and validity of the Severity of Dependence Scale for detecting cannabis dependence in psychosis.

Aims: To determine the reliability and validity of the Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS) for detecting cannabis dependence in a large sample of in-patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Design: Cross-sectional study. Participants: Participants were 153 in-patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder in Brisbane, Australia. Measurements: Participants were administered the SDS for cannabis dependence in the past 12 months. The presence of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual Version-IV (DSM-IV) cannabis dependence in the previous 12 months was assessed using the Comprehensive International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Findings: The SDS had high levels of internal consistency and strong construct and concurrent validity. Individuals with a score of ≥2 on the SDS were nearly 30 times more likely to have DSM-IV cannabis dependence. The SDS was the strongest predictor of DSM-IV cannabis dependence after controlling for other predictor variables. Conclusions: The SDS is a brief, valid and reliable screen for cannabis dependence among people with psychosis

Reliability driven reconfiguration of rural power distribution systems

This paper presents a reliability-based reconfiguration methodology for power distribution systems. Probabilistic reliability models of the system components are considered and Monte Carlo method is used while evaluating the reliability of the distribution system. The reconfiguration is aimed at maximizing the reliability of the power supplied to the customers. A binary particle swarm optimization (BPSO) algorithm is used as a tool to determine the optimal configuration of the sectionalizing and tie switches in the system. The proposed methodology is applied on a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution system.

A cost-based optimization of a fiberboard pressing plant using Monte-Carlo simulation (a reliability program)

In this research the reliability and availability of fiberboard pressing plant is assessed and a cost-based optimization of the system using the Monte- Carlo simulation method is performed. The woodchip and pulp or engineered wood industry in Australia and around the world is a lucrative industry. One such industry is hardboard. The pressing system is the main system, as it converts the wet pulp to fiberboard. The assessment identified the pressing system has the highest downtime throughout the plant plus it represents the bottleneck in the process. A survey in the late nineties revealed there are over one thousand plants around the world, with the pressing system being a common system among these plants. No work has been done to assess or estimate the reliability of such a pressing system; therefore this assessment can be used for assessing any plant of this type.