A comparison of deterministic, reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability-based design optimization strategies based on FORM: a review

In deterministic optimization, the uncertainties of the structural system (i.e. dimension, model, material, loads, etc) are not explicitly taken into account. Hence, resulting optimal solutions may lead to reduced reliability levels. The objective of reliability based design optimization (RBDO) is to optimize structures guaranteeing that a minimum level of reliability, chosen a priori by the designer, is maintained. Since reliability analysis using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is an optimization procedure itself, RBDO (in its classical version) is a double-loop strategy: the reliability analysis (inner loop) and the structural optimization (outer loop). The coupling of these two loops leads to very high computational costs. To reduce the computational burden of RBDO based on FORM, several authors propose decoupling the structural optimization and the reliability analysis. These procedures may be divided in two groups: (i) serial single loop methods and (ii) unilevel methods. The basic idea of serial single loop methods is to decouple the two loops and solve them sequentially, until some convergence criterion is achieved. On the other hand, uni-level methods employ different strategies to obtain a single loop of optimization to solve the RBDO problem. This paper presents a review of such RBDO strategies. A comparison of the performance (computational cost) of the main strategies is presented for several variants of two benchmark problems from the literature and for a structure modeled using the finite element method.

Reliability of a 13000-SHS photovoltaic rural electrification programme

In this paper, a reliability analysis of a photovoltaic rural electrification (PVRE) programme is proposed considering the failures in the 13 000 installed Solar Home System (SHS) devices occurring over a long operating period of 5 years. A previous arrangement of the database and a brief explanation of the reliability concepts will serve to introduce the failure distribution of every component, from which the SHS lifetime operating features will be described. An application example will show the usefulness of the obtained results in the forecasting of spare parts during the maintenance period. The conclusions of this study may be useful in the scientific design of PVRE programme maintenance structures, with the goal of shedding some light on the technical management mechanisms in decentralised rural electrification.

Reliability and quality in the area of statistical thinking in Engineering

There is remarkable growing concern about the quality control at the time, which has led to the search for methods capable of addressing effectively the reliability analysis as part of the Statistic. Managers, researchers and Engineers must understand that 'statistical thinking' is not just a set of statistical tools. They should start considering 'statistical thinking' from a 'system', which means, developing systems that meet specific statistical tools and other methodologies for an activity. The aim of this article is to encourage them (engineers, researchers and managers) to develop a new way of thinking.

Reliability issues and cost structure in the 13000 SHS rural electrification programme in Morocco

Operalion and mainlenance (O&M) casi 01 solar home syslems (SHS) in pholovollaie rural electrification (PVRE) programmes is a key factor in the economic viability and long lerm suslainability. This paper reports on a 13000 inslalled SHSs programme carried oul in Moroceo. Il is presenled Ihe reliability analysis 01 Ihe SHSs as well as the distribution of real cests of installation, O&M and management to oblain respeclively Ihe reliability lunelions 01 Ihe SHS componenls and lo eharaclerize the overall programme cast structure.

Reliability-based calibration for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking design procedure

Most pavement design procedures incorporate reliability to account for design inputs-associated uncertainty and variability effect on predicted performance. The load and resistance factor design (LRFD) procedure, which delivers economical section while considering design inputs variability separately, has been recognised as an effective tool to incorporate reliability into design procedures. This paper presents a new reliability-based calibration in LRFD format for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking analysis framework. This paper employs a two-component reliability analysis methodology that utilises a central composite design-based response surface approach and a first-order reliability method. The reliability calibration was achieved based on a number of field pavement sections that have well-documented performance history and high-quality field and laboratory data. The effectiveness of the developed LRFD procedure was evaluated by performing pavement designs of various target reliabilities and design conditions. The result shows an excellent agreement between the target and actual reliabilities. Furthermore, it is clear from the results that more design features need to be included in the reliability calibration to minimise the deviation of the actual reliability from the target reliability.

RELIBILITY ANALYSIS OF SIMPLE SLOPES AND SOIL-STRUCTURES WITH LINEAR LIMIT STATES

The first objective of this research was to develop closed-form and numerical probabilistic methods of analysis that can be applied to otherwise conventional methods of unreinforced and geosynthetic reinforced slopes and walls. These probabilistic methods explicitly include random variability of soil and reinforcement, spatial variability of the soil, and cross-correlation between soil input parameters on probability of failure. The quantitative impact of simultaneously considering the influence of random and/or spatial variability in soil properties in combination with cross-correlation in soil properties is investigated for the first time in the research literature. Depending on the magnitude of these statistical descriptors, margins of safety based on conventional notions of safety may be very different from margins of safety expressed in terms of probability of failure (or reliability index). The thesis work also shows that intuitive notions of margin of safety using conventional factor of safety and probability of failure can be brought into alignment when cross-correlation between soil properties is considered in a rigorous manner. The second objective of this thesis work was to develop a general closed-form solution to compute the true probability of failure (or reliability index) of a simple linear limit state function with one load term and one resistance term expressed first in general probabilistic terms and then migrated to a LRFD format for the purpose of LRFD calibration. The formulation considers contributions to probability of failure due to model type, uncertainty in bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety (OFS). Bias is defined as the ratio of measured to predicted value. Parametric analyses were carried out to show that ignoring possible correlations between random variables can lead to conservative (safe) values of resistance factor in some cases and in other cases to non-conservative (unsafe) values. Example LRFD calibrations were carried out using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip and geosynthetic reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.

Validity and reliability of a pictorial instrument for assessing perceived motor competence in Portuguese children

It is important to assess young children's perceived Fundamental Movement Skill (FMS) competence in order to examine the role of perceived FMS competence in motivation toward physical activity. Children's perceptions of motor competence may vary according to the culture/country of origin; therefore, it is also important to measure perceptions in different cultural contexts. The purpose was to assess the face validity, internal consistency, test–retest reliability and construct validity of the 12 FMS items in the Pictorial Scale for Perceived Movement Skill Competence for Young Children (PMSC) in a Portuguese sample. Methods Two hundred one Portuguese children (girls, n = 112), 5 to 10 years of age (7.6 ± 1.4), participated. All children completed the PMSC once. Ordinal alpha assessed internal consistency. A random subsamples (n = 47) were reassessed one week later to determine test–retest reliability with Bland–Altman method. Children were asked questions after the second administration to determine face validity. Construct validity was assessed on the whole sample with a Bayesian Structural Equation Modelling (BSEM) approach. The hypothesized theoretical model used the 12 items and two hypothesized factors: object control and locomotor skills. Results The majority of children correctly identified the skills and could understand most of the pictures. Test–retest reliability analysis was good, with an agreement ration between 0.99 and 1.02. Ordinal alpha values ranged from acceptable (object control 0.73, locomotor 0.68) to good (all FMS 0.81). The hypothesized BSEM model had an adequate fit. Conclusions The PMSC can be used to investigate perceptions of children's FMS competence. This instrument can also be satisfactorily used among Portuguese children.

Quinn’s Leadership Roles: A Confirmatory Factor Analysis Study in Portuguese Health Services

Purpose: To evaluate psychometric properties of Quinn’s leadership questionnaire (CFV questionnaire; 1988) to the Portuguese health services. Design: Cross-sectional study, using the Quinn’s leadership questionnaire, administered to registered nurses and physicians in Portuguese health care services (N = 687). Method: Self-administered survey applied to two samples. In the first (of convenience; N = 249 Portuguese health professionals) were performed exploratory factor and reliability analysis to the CFV questionnaire. In the second sample (stratified; N = 50 surgical units of 33 Portuguese hospitals) was performed confirmatory factor analysis using LISREL 8.80. Findings: The first sample supported an eight-factor solution accounting for 65.46% of the variance, in an interpretable factorial structure (loadings> .50), with Cronbach’s α upper than .79. This factorial structure, replicated with the second sample, showed reasonable fit for each of the 8 leadership roles, quadrants, and global model. The models evidenced, generally, nomological validity, with scores between good and acceptable (.235 < x2/df < 2.055 e .00 < RMSEA < .077). Conclusions: Quinn’s leadership questionnaire presented good reliability and validity for the eight leadership roles, showing to be suitable for use in hospital health care context. Key-Words: Leadership; Quinn’s CVF questionnaire; health services; Quinn’s competing values.

Long-term reliability of power GaN HEMTS

The world is quickly changing, and the field of power electronics assumes a pivotal role in addressing the challenges posed by climate change, global warming, and energy management. The introduction of wide-bandgap semiconductors, particularly gallium nitride (GaN), in contrast to the traditional silicon technology, is leading to lightweight, compact and evermore efficient circuitry. However, GaN technology is not mature yet and still presents reliability issues which constrain its widespread adoption. Therefore, GaN reliability is a hotspot for the research community. Extensive efforts have been directed toward understanding the physical mechanisms underlying the performance and reliability of GaN power devices. The goal of this thesis is to propose a novel in-circuit degradation analysis in order to evaluate the long-term reliability of GaN-based power devices accurately. The in-circuit setup is based on measure-stress-measure methodology where a high-speed synchronous buck converter ensures the stress while the measure is performed by means of full I-V characterizations. The switch from stress mode to characterization mode and vice versa is automatic thanks to electromechanical and solid-state relays controlled by external unit control. Because these relays are located in critical paths of the converter layout, the design has required a comprehensive study of electrical and thermal problems originated by the use of GaN technology. In addition, during the validation phase of the converter, electromagnetic-lumped-element circuit simulations are carried out to monitor the signal integrity and junction temperature of the devices under test. However, the core of this work is the in-circuit reliability analysis conducted with 80 V GaN HEMTs under several operating conditions of the converter in order to figure out the main stressors which contribute to the device's degradation.

The random barrier-crossing problem

This paper addresses the time-variant reliability analysis of structures with random resistance or random system parameters. It deals with the problem of a random load process crossing a random barrier level. The implications of approximating the arrival rate of the first overload by an ensemble-crossing rate are studied. The error involved in this so-called ""ensemble-crossing rate"" approximation is described in terms of load process and barrier distribution parameters, and in terms of the number of load cycles. Existing results are reviewed, and significant improvements involving load process bandwidth, mean-crossing frequency and time are presented. The paper shows that the ensemble-crossing rate approximation can be accurate enough for problems where load process variance is large in comparison to barrier variance, but especially when the number of load cycles is small. This includes important practical applications like random vibration due to impact loadings and earthquake loading. Two application examples are presented, one involving earthquake loading and one involving a frame structure subject to wind and snow loadings. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metodologia para análise da confiabilidade estrutural de escavações em rocha.

A methodology for rock-excavation structural-reliability analysis that uses Distinct Element Method numerical models is presented. The methodology solves the problem of the conventional numerical models that supply only punctual results and use fixed input parameters, without considering its statistical errors. The analysis of rock-excavation stability must consider uncertainties from geological variability, from uncertainty in the choice of mechanical behaviour hypothesis, and from uncertainties in parameters adopted in numerical model construction. These uncertainties can be analyzed in simple deterministic models, but a new methodology was developed for numerical models with results of several natures. The methodology is based on Monte Carlo simulations and uses principles of Paraconsistent Logic. It will be presented in the analysis of a final slope of a large-dimensioned surface mine.

Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers

The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the ""Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment"" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the ""International Safety Management Code"" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.

Is PHEEM a multi-dimensional instrument? An international perspective

Aim: To look at the characteristics of Postgraduate Hospital Educational Environment Measure (PHEEM) using data from the UK, Brazil, Chile and the Netherlands, and to examine the reliability and characteristics of PHEEM, especially how the three PHEEM subscales fitted with factors derived statistically from the data sets. Methods: Statistical analysis of PHEEM scores from 1563 sets of data, using reliability analysis, exploratory factor analysis and correlations of factors derived with the three defined PHEEM subscales. Results: PHEEM was very reliable with an overall Cronbach`s alpha of 0.928. Three factors were derived by exploratory factor analysis. Factor One correlated most strongly with the teaching subscale (R=0.802), Factor Two correlated most strongly with the role autonomy subscale (R=0.623) and Factor Three correlated most strongly with the social support subscale (R=0.538). Conclusions: PHEEM is a multi-dimensional instrument. Overall, it is very reliable. There is a good fit of the three defined subscales, derived by qualitative methods, with the three principal factors derived from the data by exploratory factor analysis.

Contributo para a validação da escala de avaliação de competências dos ortoptistas no rastreio visual infantil

Neste estudo de investigação foi analisada a estrutura factorial do questionário de “Competências dos Ortoptistas no Rastreio Visual Infantil - CORVI” e construída uma escala de avaliação de competências no rastreio visual infantil. Questionário CORVI é um questionário específico de autopreenchimento constituído por 47 itens, apresentados sob a forma de afirmações, agrupados por 3 dimensões analíticas de análise adaptadas do Tuning Educacional Structures in Europe (2004): competências sistémicas, competências interpessoais e competências instrumentais. Os itens que o constituem permitem identificar a percepção dos inquiridos sobre as competências que consideram possuir para a prática profissional do rastreio visual infantil. Este questionário foi submetido a validação facial e a pré-teste. A consistência interna foi analisada com recurso à Reliability Analysis com análise do índice alpha de Cronbach (α). Obtiveram-se bons valores de consistência interna para todas as dimensões de análise “Competências Sistémicas” (α = 0,916), “Competências Interpessoais” (α = 0,949) e “Competências Instrumentais” (α = 0,892).