Relating Agulhas leakage to the Agulhas Current retroflection location

The relation between the Agulhas Current retroflection location and the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the transport of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is investigated in a high-resolution numerical ocean model. Sudden eastward retreats of the Agulhas Current retroflection loop are linearly related to the shedding of Agulhas rings, where larger retreats generate larger rings. Using numerical Lagrangian floats a 37 year time series of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage in the model is constructed. The time series exhibits large amounts of variability, both on weekly and annual time scales. A linear relation is found between the magnitude of Agulhas leakage and the location of the Agulhas Current retroflection, both binned to three month averages. In the relation, a more westward location of the Agulhas Current retroflection corresponds to an increased transport from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean. When this relation is used in a linear regression and applied to almost 20 years of altimetry data, it yields a best estimate of the mean magnitude of Agulhas leakage of 13.2 Sv. The early retroflection of 2000, when Agulhas leakage was probably halved, can be identified using the regression.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

Application of mid-infrared spectroscopy to the prediction of maturity and sensory texture attributes of cheddar cheese

The objective of this study was to determine the potential of mid-infrared spectroscopy in conjunction with partial least squares (PLS) regression to predict various quality parameters in cheddar cheese. Cheddar cheeses (n = 24) were manufactured and stored at 8 degrees C for 12 mo. Mid-infrared spectra (640 to 4000/cm) were recorded after 4, 6, 9, and 12 mo storage. At 4, 6, and 9 mo, the water-soluble nitrogen (WSN) content of the samples was determined and the samples were also evaluated for 11 sensory texture attributes using descriptive sensory analysis. The mid-infrared spectra were subjected to a number of pretreatments, and predictive models were developed for all parameters. Age was predicted using scatter-corrected, 1st derivative spectra with a root mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV) of 1 mo, while WSN was predicted using 1st derivative spectra (RMSECV = 2.6%). The sensory texture attributes most successfully predicted were rubbery, crumbly, chewy, and massforming. These attributes were modeled using 2nd derivative spectra and had, corresponding RMSECV values in the range of 2.5 to 4.2 on a scale of 0 to 100. It was concluded that mid-infrared spectroscopy has the potential to predict age, WSN, and several sensory texture attributes of cheddar cheese..

A method for merging nadir-sounding climate records, with an application to the global-mean stratospheric temperature data sets from SSU and AMSU

A method is proposed for merging different nadir-sounding climate data records using measurements from high-resolution limb sounders to provide a transfer function between the different nadir measurements. The two nadir-sounding records need not be overlapping so long as the limb-sounding record bridges between them. The method is applied to global-mean stratospheric temperatures from the NOAA Climate Data Records based on the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU), extending the SSU record forward in time to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present, and providing a simple framework for extending the SSU record into the future using AMSU. SSU and AMSU are bridged using temperature measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which is of high enough vertical resolution to accurately represent the weighting functions of both SSU and AMSU. For this application, a purely statistical approach is not viable since the different nadir channels are not sufficiently linearly independent, statistically speaking. The near-global-mean linear temperature trends for extended SSU for 1980–2012 are −0.63 ± 0.13, −0.71 ± 0.15 and −0.80 ± 0.17 K decade−1 (95 % confidence) for channels 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The extended SSU temperature changes are in good agreement with those from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite, with both exhibiting a cooling trend of ~ 0.6 ± 0.3 K decade−1 in the upper stratosphere from 2004 to 2012. The extended SSU record is found to be in agreement with high-top coupled atmosphere–ocean models over the 1980–2012 period, including the continued cooling over the first decade of the 21st century.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Use of ridge regression for the prediction of early growth performance in crossbred calves

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Hip fracture in the elderly: does counting time from fracture to surgery or from hospital admission to surgery matter when studying in-hospital mortality?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

CORRELATING THE CURVE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE DISTAL of THE CANINES TO THE COMBINED WIDTH of THE SIX ANTERIOR TEETH WHEN SELECTING DENTURE TEETH FOR DIFFERENT ETHNIC GROUPS

Statement of problem. To select the width of denture teeth, the distance between the marks indicating the location of the canines is usually measured around the curvature of the wax occlusal rim; however, most manufacturers' mold charts provide the measurements of the artificial 6 anterior teeth as if they were on a straight line.Purpose. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the curve distance between the distal surfaces of the maxillary canines can be related to the combined width (straight measurement) of the 6 anterior teeth in 4 ethnic groups.Material and methods. Maxillary stone casts were obtained for 160 dentate subjects of 4 ethnic groups (40 whites, 40 blacks, 40 multiracial - descendants of white and black parents, and 40 Asians). The width of each maxillary anterior tooth was measured on the casts with sliding calipers. The combined width of the 6 anterior teeth (CW) corresponded to the sum of the width of each anterior tooth. The curve distance between the distal surfaces of the canines (CD) was measured by using dental tape and sliding calipers. The Pearson correlation coefficient and regression analysis were used to evaluate the relationship between CD and CW in each ethnic group (alpha=.05).Results. The mean CD and CW values (in mm) obtained were: whites (CD=52.12; CW=45.65); blacks (CD=56.10; CW=48.13); multiracial (CD=53.58; CW=46.54); and Asians (CD=53.29; CW=46.60). Significant (P<.001) correlations between CD and CW measurements were observed for all ethnic groups studied (whites, r=0.957; blacks, r=0.803; multiracial, r=0.917; and Asians, r=0.881). The following linear regression equations were obtained: whites [CD=1.1(CW)+0.3]; blacks [CD=0.95(CW)+9.3]; multiracial [CD=1.2(CW)-1.1]; and Asians [CD=1.0(CW)+5].Conclusions. The curve distance between the distal surfaces of the maxillary canines can be accurately related to the combined width of the 6 anterior teeth in the selection of denture teeth for the studied ethnic groups. (J Prosthet Dent 2012;107:400-404)

Dynamics of two satellites in the 2/1 Mean-Motion resonance: application to the case of Enceladus and Dione

The dynamics of a pair of satellites similar to Enceladus-Dione is investigated with a two-degrees-of-freedom model written in the domain of the planar general three-body problem. Using surfaces of section and spectral analysis methods, we study the phase space of the system in terms of several parameters, including the most recent data. A detailed study of the main possible regimes of motion is presented, and in particular we show that, besides the two separated resonances, the phase space is replete of secondary resonances.

Dynamics of two planets in the 3/2 mean-motion resonance: Application to the planetary system of the pulsar PSR B1257+12

This paper considers the dynamics of two planets, as the planets B and C of the pulsar PSR B1257+12, near a 3/2 mean-motion resonance. A two-degrees-of-freedom model, in the framework of the general three-body planar problem, is used and the solutions are analyzed through surfaces of section and Fourier techniques in the full phase space of the system.

Logistic regression to estimate the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to environmental and behavioral variables

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

X charts with supplementary samples to control the mean and variance

A standard X chart for controlling a process takes regular individual observations, for instance every half hour. This article proposes a modification of the X chart that allows one to take supplementary samples. The supplementary sample is taken (and the (X) over bar and R values computed) when the current value of X falls outside the control limits. With the supplementary sample, the signal of out-of-control is given by an (X) over bar value outside the (X) over bar chart's control limits or an R value outside the R chart's control limit. The proposed chart is designed to hold the supplementary sample frequency, during the in-control period, as low as 5% or less. In this context, the practitioner might prefer to verify an out-of-control condition by simply comparing the (X) over bar and R values with the control limits. In other words, without plotting the (X) over bar and R points. The X chart with supplementary samples has two major advantages when compared with the standard (X) over bar and A charts: (a) the user will be plotting X values instead of (X) over bar and R values; (b) the shifts in the process mean and/or changes in the process variance are detected faster.

TNF blockers show distinct patterns of immune response to the pandemic influenza A H1N1 vaccine in inflammatory arthritis patients

Methods. One hundred and twenty patients (RA, n = 41; AS, n = 57; PsA, n = 22) on anti-TNF agents (monoclonal, n = 94; soluble receptor, n = 26) were compared with 116 inflammatory arthritis patients under DMARDs and 117 healthy controls. Seroprotection, seroconversion (SC), geometric mean titre, factor increase in geometric mean titre and adverse events were evaluated 21 days after vaccination. Results. After immunization, SC rates (58.2% vs 74.3%, P = 0.017) were significantly lower in SpA patients receiving anti-TNF therapy, whereas no difference was observed in RA patients receiving this therapy compared with healthy controls (P = 0.067). SpA patients receiving mAbs (infliximab/adalimumab) had a significantly lower SC rate compared with healthy controls (51.6% vs 74.3%, P = 0.002) or those on DMARDs (51.6% vs 74.7%, P = 0.005), whereas no difference was observed for patients on etanercept (86.7% vs 74.3%, P = 0.091). Further analysis of non-seroconverting and seroconverting SpA patients revealed that the former group had a higher mean age (P = 0.003), a higher frequency of anti-TNF (P = 0.031) and mAbs (P = 0.001) and a lower frequency of MTX (P = 0.028). In multivariate logistic regression, only older age (P = 0.015) and mAb treatment (P = 0.023) remained significant factors for non-SC in SpA patients. Conclusion. This study revealed a distinct disease pattern of immune response to the pandemic influenza vaccine in inflammatory arthritis patients receiving anti-TNF agents, illustrated by a reduced immunogenicity solely in SpA patients using mAbs. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="www.clinicaltrials.gov" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01151644.