Performance evaluation in Bayesian adaptive randomization

Bayesian adaptive randomization (BAR) is an attractive approach to allocate more patients to the putatively superior arm based on the interim data while maintains good statistical properties attributed to randomization. Under this approach, patients are adaptively assigned to a treatment group based on the probability that the treatment is better. The basic randomization scheme can be modified by introducing a tuning parameter, replacing the posterior estimated response probability, setting a boundary to randomization probabilities. Under randomization settings comprised of the above modifications, operating characteristics, including type I error, power, sample size, imbalance of sample size, interim success rate, and overall success rate, were evaluated through simulation. All randomization settings have low and comparable type I errors. Increasing tuning parameter decreases power, but increases imbalance of sample size and interim success rate. Compared with settings using the posterior probability, settings using the estimated response rates have higher power and overall success rate, but less imbalance of sample size and lower interim success rate. Bounded settings have higher power but less imbalance of sample size than unbounded settings. All settings have better performance in the Bayesian design than in the frequentist design. This simulation study provided practical guidance on the choice of how to implement the adaptive design. ^

Apply response adaptive randomization to group sequential with early stopping

Group sequential methods and response adaptive randomization (RAR) procedures have been applied in clinical trials due to economical and ethical considerations. Group sequential methods are able to reduce the average sample size by inducing early stopping, but patients are equally allocated with half of chance to inferior arm. RAR procedures incline to allocate more patients to better arm; however it requires more sample size to obtain a certain power. This study intended to combine these two procedures. We applied the Bayesian decision theory approach to define our group sequential stopping rules and evaluated the operating characteristics under RAR setting. The results showed that Bayesian decision theory method was able to preserve the type I error rate as well as achieve a favorable power; further by comparing with the error spending function method, we concluded that Bayesian decision theory approach was more effective on reducing average sample size.^

A new randomization assay reveals Unexpected elements of sequence bias in model 'randomized' gene libraries:Implications for biopanning

Although techniques such as biopanning rely heavily upon the screening of randomized gene libraries, there is surprisingly little information available on the construction of those libraries. In general, it is based on the cloning of 'randomized' synthetic oligonucleotides, in which given position(s) contain an equal mixture of all four bases. Yet, many supposedly 'randomized' libraries contain significant elements of bias and/or omission. Here, we report the development and validation of a new, PCR-based assay that enables rapid examination of library composition both prior to and after cloning. By using our assay to analyse model libraries, we demonstrate that the cloning of a given distribution of sequences does not necessarily result in a similarly composed library of clones. Thus, while bias in randomized synthetic oligonucleotide mixtures can be virtually eliminated by using unequal ratios of the four phosphoramidites, the use of such mixtures does not ensure retrieval of a truly randomized library. We propose that in the absence of a technique to control cloning frequencies, the ability to analyse the composition of libraries after cloning will enhance significantly the quality of information derived from those libraries. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of insulin resistance on monounsaturated fatty acid levels : a multi-cohort non-targeted metabolomics and mendelian randomization study

Insulin resistance (IR) and impaired insulin secretion contribute to type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Both are associated with changes in the circulating metabolome, but causal directions have been difficult to disentangle. We combined untargeted plasma metabolomics by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry in three non-diabetic cohorts with Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis to obtain new insights into early metabolic alterations in IR and impaired insulin secretion. In up to 910 elderly men we found associations of 52 metabolites with hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp-measured IR and/or β-cell responsiveness (disposition index) during an oral glucose tolerance test. These implicated bile acid, glycerophospholipid and caffeine metabolism for IR and fatty acid biosynthesis for impaired insulin secretion. In MR analysis in two separate cohorts (n = 2,613) followed by replication in three independent studies profiled on different metabolomics platforms (n = 7,824 / 8,961 / 8,330), we discovered and replicated causal effects of IR on lower levels of palmitoleic acid and oleic acid. A trend for a causal effect of IR on higher levels of tyrosine reached significance only in meta-analysis. In one of the largest studies combining "gold standard" measures for insulin responsiveness with non-targeted metabolomics, we found distinct metabolic profiles related to IR or impaired insulin secretion. We speculate that the causal effects on monounsaturated fatty acid levels could explain parts of the raised cardiovascular disease risk in IR that is independent of diabetes development.

Cystatin C and cardiovascular disease : A mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies show that high circulating cystatin C is associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), independent of creatinine-based renal function measurements. It is unclear whether this relationship is causal, arises from residual confounding, and/or is a consequence of reverse causation. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to use Mendelian randomization to investigate whether cystatin C is causally related to CVD in the general population. METHODS We incorporated participant data from 16 prospective cohorts (n ¼ 76,481) with 37,126 measures of cystatin C and added genetic data from 43 studies (n ¼ 252,216) with 63,292 CVD events. We used the common variant rs911119 in CST3 as an instrumental variable to investigate the causal role of cystatin C in CVD, including coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, and heart failure. RESULTS: Cystatin C concentrations were associated with CVD risk after adjusting for age, sex, and traditional risk factors (relative risk: 1.82 per doubling of cystatin C; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.56 to 2.13; p ¼ 2.12 1014). The minor allele of rs911119 was associated with decreased serum cystatin C (6.13% per allele; 95% CI: 5.75 to 6.50; p ¼ 5.95 10211), explaining 2.8% of the observed variation in cystatin C. Mendelian randomization analysis did not provide evidence for a causal role of cystatin C, with a causal relative risk for CVD of 1.00 per doubling cystatin C (95% CI: 0.82 to 1.22; p ¼ 0.994), which was statistically different from the observational estimate (p ¼ 1.6 105 ). A causal effect of cystatin C was not detected for any individual component of CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Mendelian randomization analyses did not support a causal role of cystatin C in the etiology of CVD. As such, therapeutics targeted at lowering circulating cystatin C are unlikely to be effective in preventing CVD. 

Conseqüências da análise incorreta de experimentos blocados

Errors are always present in experimental measurements so, it is important to identify them and understand how they affect the results of experiments. Statistics suggest that the execution of experiments should follow random order, but unfortunately the complete randomization of experiments is not always viable for practical reasons. One possible simplification is blocked experiments within which the levels of certain factors are maintained fixed while the levels of others are randomized. However this has a cost. Although the experimental part is simplified, the statistical analysis becomes more complex.

A quantitative and qualitative evaluation of reports of clinical trials published in six Brazilian dental journals indexed in the Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO)

INTRODUCTION: Open access publishing is becoming increasingly popular within the biomedical sciences. SciELO, the Scientific Electronic Library Online, is a digital library covering a selected collection of Brazilian scientific journals many of which provide open access to full-text articles.This library includes a number of dental journals some of which may include reports of clinical trials in English, Portuguese and/or Spanish. Thus, SciELO could play an important role as a source of evidence for dental healthcare interventions especially if it yields a sizeable number of high quality reports. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify reports of clinical trials by handsearching of dental journals that are accessible through SciELO, and to assess the overall quality of these reports. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Electronic versions of six Brazilian dental Journals indexed in SciELO were handsearched at www.scielo.br in September 2008. Reports of clinical trials were identified and classified as controlled clinical trials (CCTs - prospective, experimental studies comparing 2 or more healthcare interventions in human beings) or randomized controlled trials (RCTs - a random allocation method is clearly reported), according to Cochrane eligibility criteria. CRITERIA TO ASSESS METHODOLOGICAL QUALITY INCLUDED: method of randomization, concealment of treatment allocation, blinded outcome assessment, handling of withdrawals and losses and whether an intention-to-treat analysis had been carried out. RESULTS: The search retrieved 33 CCTs and 43 RCTs. A majority of the reports provided no description of either the method of randomization (75.3%) or concealment of the allocation sequence (84.2%). Participants and outcome assessors were reported as blinded in only 31.2% of the reports. Withdrawals and losses were only clearly described in 6.5% of the reports and none mentioned an intention-to-treat analysis or any similar procedure. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that a substantial number of reports of trials and systematic reviews are available in the dental journals listed in SciELO, and that these could provide valuable evidence for clinical decision making. However, it is clear that the quality of a number of these reports is of some concern and that improvement in the conduct and reporting of these trials could be achieved if authors adhered to internationally accepted guidelines, e.g. the CONSORT statement.

Spatial pattern detection modeling of thrips (Thrips tabaci) on onion fields

Onion (Allium cepa) is one of the most cultivated and consumed vegetables in Brazil and its importance is due to the large laborforce involved. One of the main pests that affect this crop is the Onion Thrips (Thrips tabaci), but the spatial distribution of this insect, although important, has not been considered in crop management recommendations, experimental planning or sampling procedures. Our purpose here is to consider statistical tools to detect and model spatial patterns of the occurrence of the onion thrips. In order to characterize the spatial distribution pattern of the Onion Thrips a survey was carried out to record the number of insects in each development phase on onion plant leaves, on different dates and sample locations, in four rural properties with neighboring farms under different infestation levels and planting methods. The Mantel randomization test proved to be a useful tool to test for spatial correlation which, when detected, was described by a mixed spatial Poisson model with a geostatistical random component and parameters allowing for a characterization of the spatial pattern, as well as the production of prediction maps of susceptibility to levels of infestation throughout the area.

Spatial patterns in the brood combs of Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Hymenoptera: Meliponinae): male clusters

Genetic models of sex and caste determination in eusocial stingless bees suggest specific patterns of male, worker and gyne cell distribution in the brood comb. Conflict between queen and laying workers over male parentage and center-periphery gradients of conditions, such as food and temperature, could also contribute to non-random spatial configuration. We converted the positions of the hexagonal cells in a brood comb to Cartesian coordinates, labeled by sex or caste of the individuals inside. To detect and locate clustered patterns, the mapped brood combs were evaluated by indexes of dispersion (MMC, mean distance of cells of a given category from their centroid) and eccentricity (DMB, distance between this centroid and the overall brood comb centroid) that we developed. After randomizing the labels and recalculating the indexes, we calculated probabilities that the original values had been generated by chance. We created sets of binary brood combs in which males were aggregated, regularly or randomly distributed among females. These stylized maps were used to describe the power of MMC and DMB, and they were applied to evaluate the male distribution in the sampled Nannotrigona testaceicornis brood combs. MMC was very sensitive to slight deviations from a perfectly rounded clump; DMB detected any asymmetry in the location of these compact to fuzzy clusters. Six of the 82 brood combs of N. testaceicornis that we analyzed had more than nine males, distributed according to variations in spatial patterns, as indicated by the two indexes.

Acute and chronic effects of exercise on inflammatory markers and B-type natriuretic peptide in patients with coronary artery disease

Few studies have prospectively addressed the effects of exercise in the inflammatory activity of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We sought to evaluate the consequences of an acute bout of exercise on inflammatory markers and BNP in untrained CAD patients before and after randomization to a training program. 34 CAD patients underwent a 50-min acute exercise session on a cycle-ergometer at 65% peak oxygen uptake before and after blood sampling. They were then randomized to a 4-month chronic exercise program (15 patients) or general lifestyle recommendations (19 patients), undergoing a new acute session of exercise after that. In the overall population, acute exercise caused a significant increase in C-reactive protein [CRP; 1.79 (4.49) vs. 1.94 (4.89) mg/L, P < 0.001], monokine induced by interferon-gamma [Mig; 351 (324) vs. 373 (330) pg/mL, P = 0.027] and vascular adhesion molecule-1 [VCAM-1; 226 (82) vs. 252 (110) pg/mL, P = 0.02]. After 4-months, in exercise-trained patients, there was a significant decrease in the inflammatory response provoked by the acute exercise compared to patients in the control group reflected by a significant decrease in the differences between rest and post-exercise levels of CRP [-0.29 (0.84) mg/L vs. -0.11 (0.21) mg/L, P = 0.05]. Resting BNP was also significantly lower in exercise-trained patients when compared to untrained controls [15.6 (16.2) vs. 9.7 (11.4) pg/mL, P = 0.04 and 19.2 (27.8) vs. 23.2 (27.5) pg/mL, P = 0.76; respectively]. Chronic exercise training might partially reverse the inflammatory response caused by acute exercise in CAD patients. These results suggest that regular exercise is an important nonpharmacological strategy to the improvement in inflammation in CAD patients.

Formulating Mixed Models for Experiments, Including Longitudinal Experiments

Mixed models have become important in analyzing the results of experiments, particularly those that require more complicated models (e.g., those that involve longitudinal data). This article describes a method for deriving the terms in a mixed model. Our approach extends an earlier method by Brien and Bailey to explicitly identify terms for which autocorrelation and smooth trend arising from longitudinal observations need to be incorporated in the model. At the same time we retain the principle that the model used should include, at least, all the terms that are justified by the randomization. This is done by dividing the factors into sets, called tiers, based on the randomization and determining the crossing and nesting relationships between factors. The method is applied to formulate mixed models for a wide range of examples. We also describe the mixed model analysis of data from a three-phase experiment to investigate the effect of time of refinement on Eucalyptus pulp from four different sources. Cubic smoothing splines are used to describe differences in the trend over time and unstructured covariance matrices between times are found to be necessary.

Molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of indole and benzimidazole derivatives as H(4) receptor antagonists

Histamine is an important biogenic amine, which acts with a group of four G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs), namely H(1) to H(4) (H(1)R - H(4)R) receptors. The actions of histamine at H(4)R are related to immunological and inflammatory processes, particularly in pathophysiology of asthma, and H(4)R ligands having antagonistic properties could be helpful as antiinflammatory agents. In this work, molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of 30 compounds, indole and benzimidazole derivatives, as H(4)R antagonists were performed. The QSAR models were built and optimized using a genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The best QSAR model constructed with training set (N = 25) presented the following statistical measures: r (2) = 0.76, q (2) = 0.62, LOF = 0.15, and LSE = 0.07, and was validated using the LNO and y-randomization techniques. Four of five compounds of test set were well predicted by the selected QSAR model, which presented an external prediction power of 80%. These findings can be quite useful to aid the designing of new anti-H(4) compounds with improved biological response.

Influence of chemical interesterification on thermal behavior, microstructure, polymorphism and crystallization properties of canola oil and fully hydrogenated cottonseed oil blends

This work evaluated chemical interesterification of canola oil (CaO) and fully hydrogenated cottonseed oil (FHCSO) blends, with 20%, 25%, 30%, 35% and 40%(w/w) FHCSO content. Interesterification produced reduction of trisaturated and increase in monounsaturated and diunsaturated triacylglycerols contents, which caused important changes in temperatures and enthalpies associated with the crystallization and melting thermograms. It was verified reduction in medium crystal diameter in all blends, in addition crystal morphology modification. Crystallization kinetics revealed that crystal formation induction period and maximum solid fat content were altered according to FHCSO content in original blends and as a result of random rearrangement. Changes in Avrami constant (k) and exponent (n) indicated, respectively, that interesterification decreased crystallization rates and altered crystalline morphology. However, X-ray diffraction analyses showed randomization did not change the original crystalline polymorphism. The original and interesterified blends had significant predominance of beta` polymorph, which is interesting for several food applications. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EFFECT OF CHEMICAL INTERESTERIFICATION ON PHYSICOCHEMICAL PROPERTIES AND INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS OF CANOLA OIL AND FULLY HYDROGENATED COTTONSEED OIL BLENDS

Blends of canola oil (CO) and fully hydrogenated cottonseed oil (FHCSO), with 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40% FHCSO (w/w) were interesterified under the following conditions: 0.4% sodium methoxide, 500 rpm stirring, 100C, 20 min. The original and interesterified blends were examined for triacylglycerol composition, melting point, solid fat content (SFC) and consistency. Interesterification caused considerable rearrangement of triacylglycerol species, reduction of trisaturated triacylglycerol content and increase in disaturated-monounsaturated and monosaturated-diunsaturated triacylglycerols in all blends, resulting in lowering of respective melting points. The interesterified blends showed reduced SFC at all temperatures and more linear melting profiles if compared with the original blends. Consistency, expressed as yield value, significantly decreased after the reaction. Iso-solid curves indicated eutectic interactions for the original blends, which were eliminated after randomization. The 80:20, 75:25, 70:30 and 65:35 (w/w) CO: FHCSO interesterified blends showed characteristics which are appropriate for their application as soft margarines, spreads, fat for bakery/all-purpose shortenings, and icing shortenings, respectively. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS Recently, a number of studies have suggested a direct relationship between trans isomers and increased risk of vascular disease. In response, many health organizations have recommended reducing consumption of foods containing trans fatty acids. In this connection, chemical interesterification has proven the main alternative for obtaining plastic fats that have low trans isomer content or are even trans isomer free. This work proposes to evaluate the chemical interesterification of binary blends of canola oil and fully hydrogenated cottonseed oil and the specific potential application of these interesterified blends in food products.

Thermal Behavior, Microstructure, Polymorphism, and Crystallization Properties of Zero Trans Fats from Soybean Oil and Fully Hydrogenated Soybean Oil

Blends of soybean oil (SO) and fully hydrogenated soybean oil (FHSBO), with 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50% (w/w) FHSBO content were interesterified under the following conditions: 20 min reaction time, 0.4% sodium methoxide catalyst, and 500 rpm stirring speed, at 100 A degrees C. The original and interesterified blends were examined for triacylglycerol composition, thermal behavior, microstructure, crystallization kinetics, and polymorphism. Interesterification produced substantial rearrangement of the triacylglycerol species in all the blends, reduction of trisaturated triacylglycerol content and increase in monounsaturated-disaturated and diunsaturated-monosaturated triacylglycerols. Evaluation of thermal behavior parameters showed linear relations with FHSBO content in the original blends. Blend melting and crystallization thermograms were significantly modified by the randomization. Interesterification caused significant reductions in maximum crystal diameter in all blends, in addition to modifying crystal morphology. Characterization of crystallization kinetics revealed that crystal formation induction period (tau (SFC)) and maximum solid fat content (SFC(max)) were altered according to FHSBO content in the original blends and as a result of the random rearrangement. Changes in Avrami constant (k) and exponent (n) indicated, respectively, that-as compared with the original blends-interesterification decreased crystallization velocities and modified crystallization processes, altering crystalline morphology and nucleation mechanism. X-ray diffraction analyses revealed that interesterification altered crystalline polymorphism. The interesterified blends showed a predominance of the beta` polymorph, which is of more interest for food applications.