Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill.

Automatic near real-time selection of flood water levels from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images for assimilation into hydraulic models: a case study

Flood extents caused by fluvial floods in urban and rural areas may be predicted by hydraulic models. Assimilation may be used to correct the model state and improve the estimates of the model parameters or external forcing. One common observation assimilated is the water level at various points along the modelled reach. Distributed water levels may be estimated indirectly along the flood extents in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images by intersecting the extents with the floodplain topography. It is necessary to select a subset of levels for assimilation because adjacent levels along the flood extent will be strongly correlated. A method for selecting such a subset automatically and in near real-time is described, which would allow the SAR water levels to be used in a forecasting model. The method first selects candidate waterline points in flooded rural areas having low slope. The waterline levels and positions are corrected for the effects of double reflections between the water surface and emergent vegetation at the flood edge. Waterline points are also selected in flooded urban areas away from radar shadow and layover caused by buildings, with levels similar to those in adjacent rural areas. The resulting points are thinned to reduce spatial autocorrelation using a top-down clustering approach. The method was developed using a TerraSAR-X image from a particular case study involving urban and rural flooding. The waterline points extracted proved to be spatially uncorrelated, with levels reasonably similar to those determined manually from aerial photographs, and in good agreement with those of nearby gauges.

3D cloud reconstructions: evaluation of scanning radar scan strategy with a view to surface shortwave radiation closure

The ability of six scanning cloud radar scan strategies to reconstruct cumulus cloud fields for radiation study is assessed. Utilizing snapshots of clean and polluted cloud fields from large eddy simulations, an analysis is undertaken of error in both the liquid water path and monochromatic downwelling surface irradiance at 870 nm of the reconstructed cloud fields. Error introduced by radar sensitivity, choice of radar scan strategy, retrieval of liquid water content (LWC), and reconstruction scheme is explored. Given an in␣nitely sensitive radar and perfect LWC retrieval, domain average surface irradiance biases are typically less than 3 W m␣2 ␣m␣1, corresponding to 5–10% of the cloud radiative effect (CRE). However, when using a realistic radar sensitivity of ␣37.5 dBZ at 1 km, optically thin areas and edges of clouds are dif␣cult to detect due to their low radar re-ectivity; in clean conditions, overestimates are of order 10 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 (~20% of the CRE), but in polluted conditions, where the droplets are smaller, this increases to 10–26 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 (~40–100% of the CRE). Drizzle drops are also problematic; if treated as cloud droplets, reconstructions are poor, leading to large underestimates of 20–46 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 in domain average surface irradiance (~40–80% of the CRE). Nevertheless, a synergistic retrieval approach combining the detailed cloud structure obtained from scanning radar with the droplet-size information and location of cloud base gained from other instruments would potentially make accurate solar radiative transfer calculations in broken cloud possible for the first time.

Detection of flooded urban areas in high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar images using double scattering

Flooding is a particular hazard in urban areas worldwide due to the increased risks to life and property in these regions. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors are often used to image flooding because of their all-weather day-night capability, and now possess sufficient resolution to image urban flooding. The flood extents extracted from the images may be used for flood relief management and improved urban flood inundation modelling. A difficulty with using SAR for urban flood detection is that, due to its side-looking nature, substantial areas of urban ground surface may not be visible to the SAR due to radar layover and shadow caused by buildings and taller vegetation. This paper investigates whether urban flooding can be detected in layover regions (where flooding may not normally be apparent) using double scattering between the (possibly flooded) ground surface and the walls of adjacent buildings. The method estimates double scattering strengths using a SAR image in conjunction with a high resolution LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) height map of the urban area. A SAR simulator is applied to the LiDAR data to generate maps of layover and shadow, and estimate the positions of double scattering curves in the SAR image. Observations of double scattering strengths were compared to the predictions from an electromagnetic scattering model, for both the case of a single image containing flooding, and a change detection case in which the flooded image was compared to an un-flooded image of the same area acquired with the same radar parameters. The method proved successful in detecting double scattering due to flooding in the single-image case, for which flooded double scattering curves were detected with 100% classification accuracy (albeit using a small sample set) and un-flooded curves with 91% classification accuracy. The same measures of success were achieved using change detection between flooded and un-flooded images. Depending on the particular flooding situation, the method could lead to improved detection of flooding in urban areas.

Effect of tillage on fractal indices describing soil surface microrelief of a Brazilian Alfisol

Soil surface roughness is known to influence water infiltration, runoff and erosion. Soil surface roughness changes with management and weather and its mathematical description still remains an important issue. The main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of tillage on the two fractal indices, fractal dimension, D, and crossover length, 1, currently used in characterizing soil surface microrelief. The statistical index random roughness, RR, was also assessed. Field experiments were done on an Alfisol located at Rio Grande do Sul State (Brazil). Two tillage treatments (conventional versus direct drilling) were tested. The soil surface microrelief was assessed by point elevation measurements in 16 plots for each treatment. The sampling scheme was a square grid with 20 x 20 mm between point spacing and the plot size was 280 x 280 mm, so that each data set consisted of 225 individual elevation points. All indices were calculated after trend removal, both by slope correction, i.e., oriented microrelief, and by slope plus tillage marks correction, i.e., random microrelief. The implemented algorithm for estimating D and 1 consisted in evaluating the roughness around the local root mean square deviation (RMS) of the point elevation values. Irrespective of tillage treatment and detrending procedure, fractal behavior extended only over a bounded range of scales, from 40 to 100 mm, due to the experimental setup. In these conditions, assessing fractal indices was not always straightforward. The statistical index RR and the fractal index I were significantly different between tillage treatments for oriented and random surface conditions. D values of random soil surfaces were not affected by tillage treatment, whereas D values of oriented microrelief were significantly lower in the direct drilled plots. Removal of tillage marks trend resulted in a significant increase in D values. Within each tillage treatment, 1 and D were significantly correlated. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of Soil Surface Roughness Effects on Runoff and Soil Erosion Rates under Simulated Rainfall

This study aims at identifying the influence of soil surface roughness from small to large aggregates (random roughness) on runoff and soil loss and to investigate the interaction with soil surface seal formation. Bulk samples of a silty clay loam soil were sieved to four aggregate-size classes of 3 to 12, 12 to 20, 20 to 45, 45 to 100 mm, and packed in soil trays set at a 5% slope. Rainfall simulations using an oscillating nozzle simulator were conducted for 90 min at an average rainfall intensity of 50.2 mm h(-1). Soil surface roughness was measured using an instantaneous profile laser scanner and surface sealing was studied by macroscopic analysis of epoxy impregnated soil samples. The rainfall simulations revealed longer times to initiate runoff with increasing soil surface roughness. For random roughness levels up to 6 mm, a decrease in final runoff rate with increasing roughness was observed. This can be attributed to a decreased breakdown of the larger roughness elements on rougher surfaces, thus keeping infiltration rate high. For a random roughness larger than 6 mm, a greater final runoff rate was observed. This was caused by the creation of a thick depositional seal in the concentrated flow areas, thus lowering the infiltration rates. Analysis of impregnated soil sample blocks confirmed the formation of a structural surface seal on smooth surfaces, whereas thick depositional seals were visible in the depressional areas of rougher surfaces. Therefore, from our observations it can be learned that soil surface roughness as formed by the presence of different aggregate sizes reduces runoff but that its effect diminishes due to aggregate breakdown and the formation of thick depositional seals in the case of rough soil surfaces. Sediment concentration increased with increasing soil surface roughness, due to runoff concentration in flow paths. Nevertheless, final soil loss rates were comparable for all soil roughness categories, indicating that random roughness is only important in influencing runoff rates and the time to initiate runoff, but not in influencing sediment export through soil loss rates.

Mapping surface deformation in open pit iron mines of Carajas Province (Amazon Region) using an integrated SAR analysis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Relations between soil surface roughness, tortuosity, tillage treatments, rainfall intensity and soil and water losses from a red yellow latosol

The soil surface roughness increases water retention and infiltration, reduces the runoff volume and speed and influences soil losses by water erosion. Similarly to other parameters, soil roughness is affected by the tillage system and rainfall volume. Based on these assumptions, the main purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of tillage treatments on soil surface roughness (RR) and tortuosity (T) and to investigate the relationship with soil and water losses in a series of simulated rainfall events. The field study was carried out at the experimental station of EMBRAPA Southeastern Cattle Research Center in São Carlos (Fazenda Canchim), in São Paulo State, Brazil. Experimental plots of 33 m² were treated with two tillage practices in three replications, consisting of: untilled (no-tillage) soil (NTS) and conventionally tilled (plowing plus double disking) soil (CTS). Three successive simulated rain tests were applied in 24 h intervals. The three tests consisted of a first rain of 30 mm/h, a second of 30 mm/h and a third rain of 70 mm/h. Immediately after tilling and each rain simulation test, the surface roughness was measured, using a laser profile meter. The tillage treatments induced significant changes in soil surface roughness and tortuosity, demonstrating the importance of the tillage system for the physical surface conditions, favoring water retention and infiltration in the soil. The increase in surface roughness by the tillage treatments was considerably greater than its reduction by rain action. The surface roughness and tortuosity had more influence on the soil volume lost by surface runoff than in the conventional treatment. Possibly, other variables influenced soil and water losses from the no-tillage treatments, e.g., soil type, declivity, slope length, among others not analyzed in this study.

Morphology and surface sedimentation on the upper and middle continental slope off Uruguay

This paper presents for the first time a morphological and surface sediment characterization of the Uruguayan outer continental shelf and slope. The study is based on a high-resolution coverage using hydrographical, geomorphological and sedimentological sampling and several textural and productivity proxies. Along slope terraces and an important canyon system characterizes continental slope morphology, indicating that across- and down-slope sedimentary processes control large-scale sedimentation. Terraces represent the prolongation of the Argentinean Contouritic Depositional System that vanishes in the study area, presumably as a result of the dynamic of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence. Canyons incised in the upper slope are likely related to low-stand sea level conditions. At the outer shelf and shallow upper slope (170-250 m depth), off-shelf sand transport is inferred from the distribution of relict sand and reworked biogenic gravel. In the upper continental slope, the northern region is characterized by an erosive environment controlled by a steep slope and the southward flowing Brazil current. In the south, a depositional environment is enhanced by the presence of a gentler slope and seaward incised canyons and is mainly controlled by hemipelagic processes associated with nutrient-rich Sub-Antarctic Waters (SAW), by its confluence with South Atlantic Central Waters (SACW) and by the Rio de la Plata’s (RdlP) influence. Additionally, within the upper slope, the occurrence of igneous-metamorphic cobbles and pebbles in canyon and mound lag deposits suggests the influence of glacial fluvial discharge and/or iceberg transport processes. In the middle slope, sedimentation is controlled by thermohaline-induced deep-water bottom currents. The decreasing influence of the erosive Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) is evident in a northward diminution in grain size. The variety of transport and sedimentary processes identified reflect the control of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence zone and the Rio de la Plata’s discharge.

Grain size distribution in surface sediments samples of the continental shelf and slope of southeast Greenland

During "Meteor" Cruise 6/1966 in the northwest Atlantic a systematic survey of the bottom topography of the southeast Greenland continental margin was undertaken. Eighty-seven profiles transverse to the shelf edge at distances of 3-4 nautical miles and two longitudinal profiles parallel to the coast were carried out with the ELAC Narrow Beam Echo-Sounder giving a reliable record of even steep slopes. On the basis of the echo soundings the topography and morphology of the continental shelf and slope are evaluated. A detailed bathymetric chart and a serial profile chart were designed as working material for the morphological research. These maps along with the original echograms are morphometrically evaluated. The analysis of the sea bottom features is the basis of a subsequent morphogenetical interpretation, verified and extended by means of interpretation of magnetic data and sediment analysis (grain size, roundness, lithology). The results of the research are expressed in a geomorphological map. The primary findings can be summarized as follows: 1) The southeast Greenland shelf by its bottom topography can be clearly designated as a glacially formed area. The glacial features of the shelf can be classified into two zones nearly parallel to the coast: glacial erosion forms on the inner shelf and glacial accumulation forms on the outer shelf. The inner shelf is characterized by the rugged and hummocky topography of ice scoured plains with clear west/east slope asymmetry. On the outer shelf three types of glacial accumulation forms can be recognized: ice margin deposits with clearly expressed terminal moraines, glacial till plains and glaciomarine outwash fans. Both zones of the shelf can be subdivided into two levels of relief. The ice scoured plains, with average depths of 240 meters (m), are dissected to a maximum depth of 1060 m (Gyldenloves Trough) by trough valleys, which are the prolongations of the Greenland fjords. The banks of the outer shelf, with an average depth of 180 m, surround glacial basins with a maximum depth of 670 meters. 2) The sediments of the continental shelf can be classified as glacial due to their grain size distribution and the degree of roundness of the gravel particles. The ice margin deposits on the outer shelf can be recognized by their high percentage of gravels. On the inner shelf a rock surface is suggested, intermittently covered by glacial deposits. In the shelf troughs fine-grained sediments occur mixed with gravels. 3) Topography and sediments show that the southeast Greenland shelf was covered by an ice sheet resting on the sea floor during the Pleistocene ice-age. The large end moraines along the shelf edge probably indicate the maximum extent of the Wurm shelf ice resting on the sea floor. The breakthroughs of the end moraines in front of the glacial basins suggest that the shelf ice has floated further seaward over the increasing depths. 4) Petrographically the shelf sediments consist of gneisses, granites and basalts. While gneisses and granites occire on the nearby coast, basalt is not known to exist here. Either this material has been drifted by icebergs from the basalt province to the north or exists on the southeast Greenland shelf itself. The last interpretation is supported bythe high portion of basalt contained in the sediment samples taken and the strong magnetic anomalies probably caused by basaltic intrusions. 5) A magnetic profile allows the recognition of two magnetically differing areas which approximately coincide with the glacial erosion and accumulation zones. The inner shelf shows a strong and variable magnetic field because the glacially eroded basement forms the sea floor. The outer shelf is characterized by a weak and homogenous magnetic field, as the magnetized basement lies at greater depthy, buried by a thick cover of glacial sediments. The strong magnetic anomalies of the inner shelf are probably caused by dike swarms, similar to those observed further to the north in the Kangerdlugssuaq Fjord region. This interpretation is supported by the high basalt content of the sediment samples and the rough topography of the ice scoured plains which correlates in general with the magnetic fluctuations. The dike structures of the basement have been differentially eroded by the shelf ice. 6) The continental slope, extending from the shelf break at 313 m to a depth of 1270 m with an average slope of 11°, is characterized by delta-shaped projections in front of the shelf basins, by marginal plateaus, ridges and hills, by canyons and slumping features. The projections could be identified as glaciomarine sediment fans. This conclusion is supported by the strong decrease of magnetic field intensity. The deep sea hills and ridges with their greater magnetic intensities have to be regarded as basement outcrops projecting through the glaciomarine sediment cover. The upper continental rise, sloping seaward at about 2°, is composed of wide sediment fans and slump material. A marginal depression on the continental rise running parallel to the shelf edge has been identified. In this depression bottom currents capable of erosion have been recorded. South of Cape Farvel the depression extends to the accumulation zone of the "Eirik" sedimentary ridge. 7) By means of a study of the recent marine processes, postglacial modification of the ice-formed relief can be postulated. The retention effect of the fjord troughs and the high velocity of the East Greenland stream prevents the glacial features from being buried by sediments. Bottom currents capable of active erosion have only been found in the marginal depression on the continental rise. In addition, at the time of the lowest glacio-eustatic sea level, the shelf bottom was not situated in the zone of wave erosion. Only on the continental slope and rise bottom currents, sediment slumps and turbidity currents have led to significant recent modifications. Considering these results, the geomorphological development of the southeast Greenland continental terrace can be suggested as follows: 1. initial formation of a "peneplain", 2. fluvial incision, 3. submergence, and finally 4. glacial modification.

Benthic foraminifera of surface sediments from the continental slope off Sierra Leone, North-West Africa

On "Meteor" cruise 30 (1973) 22 piston-cores were collected off Sierra Leone from water-depths between about 5000 m (Sierra Leone Basin) and 500 m (upper continental slope) with the objective to study the sediment composition and age as well as processes of sedimentation on the continental slope in a tropical humid region. Granulometric analysis and determinations of the carbonate contents of the sediment samples were carried out, as well as qualitative and quantitative analysis of the components of the grain size fractions > 63 µm and of the planktonic and benthonic foraminifera > 160 µm. Presently, the cold Canary Current influences the composition of the planktonic foraminifera within the northwestern area of investigation (profile A), whereas the planktonic fauna of the eastern area (profile C) seems to be truly tropical. In all Quaternary sediments from the continental slope off Sierra Leone, species of Globorotalia are less abundant than in truly pelagic sediments. For that reason, the zonation of the Pleistocene sediments based on the presence or absence of Globorotalia cultrata does not always agree with the climatic changes reflected in the sediments. Concerning past climates better results can be obtained by using the changes in percentage abundances of Globigerina sp. sp. and Globigerinoides sp. sp. as indicators for cool and warm temperatures. The Tertiary sediments contain a pelagic foraminiferal assemblage. In the Holocene sediments the benthonic foraminifera do not only serve as good paleodepth indicators, but their communities are also restricted to defined water masses, which change their positions in accordance with climatic changes. Thus, Cassidulina carinata in the area of investigation is an excellent indicator for sediments deposited during times, which were cooler than today; this is true for all cores from the continental slope off Sierra Leone independent of water-depth although this species presently abounds at water-depths around 600 m. The cores from the continental rise and from the Sierra Leone Basin (M30-261, M30-146, M30-147) were deposited below the calcium carbonate compensation depth. Only small sections of the cores consist of the original carbonate-free sediments, whereas the main part of the sediment column is redeposited material, rich in foraminifera, which normally live on the upper continental slope, or even on the shelf. From these cores only M30-261 can be subdivided into biostratigraphic zones ranging from zone V to zone Y. In all cores from the middle and upper continental slope of the eastern area of investigation (profile C; KL 230, 209-204) and in cores KL 183 and KL 184 from the northwestern area (profile A) we observed an undisturbed succession of sediments from the biostratigraphic zones X (partly), Y and Z. All cores from the central area (M30-181, M30-182, M30-262 to 264) and M30-187 from the upper slope of profile A show variable hiatuses in the sedimentary record. Locally, high velocity bottom currents were probably responsible for erosion, nondeposition or minimal sedimentation rates. These currents might have been initiated partly by the somewhat exposed position of this part of the continental slope, where the shelf edge bends from a northwest towards an eastern direction, and partly by very young tectonic movements. Fracture zones with vertically displaced fault blocs are frequent at Sierra Leone continental margin. According to seismic measurements by McMaster et al. (1975) the sites of the central area are located on an uplifted fault bloc explaining the reduced sediment rates or erosion. Unlike the central area, the eastern area (profile C) is situated on a downfaulted bloc with high sediment rates. The sediments from the cores of profile B as well as the turbiditic deep-sea sediments were deposited under a higher flow regime; therefore they are coarser than the extremely fine-grained sediments of the cores from profile C. Since the sand fraction (> 63 µm) is mainly composed of foraminifera, besides pteropods and light-colored fecal pellets, the carbonate content increases with the increasing percentage of the coarse grain fraction. Higher concentrations of quartz were only observed in core sections with considerable carbonate dissolution (mainly in the X-Zone), and, in general, in all sediments from the eastern area with higher terrigenous input including larger concentration of mica. Especially during times transitional between glacials and interglacials (or interstadials) the bottom currents were intensified. The percentages of coarse fraction and carbonate increase with increasing current velocities. Calcium carbonate dissolution becomes important in water depths > 3500 m. During cooler times the lysokline is depressed. Light-colored fecal pellets were redeposited from Late Neogene sediments (M30-187, M30-181). In the area of investigation they occur in the Holocene and mainly the Pleistocene sediments of the cores from the northwestern and central area because only here Tertiary sediments have been eroded at the uppermost continental slope. In the central area there are at least two periods of non-sedimentation and/or erosion which can be confined as being (1) not older than middle Pliocene and not younger than zone V and (2) younger than zone W. The local character of the erosion is documented by the fact that a complete Late Quaternary section is present in the cores of the northwestern and eastern area, each within less than 100 km from incomplete cores from the central area.

Spatial distribution of isotopic compositions of Globigerina bulloides and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (dex.) and the faunal assemblages of planktic foraminifera in surface sediment samples along the Chilean continental slope between 23°S and 44°S

We report on the spatial distribution of isotopic compositions of the two planktic foraminifera species Globigerina bulloides and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (dex.), and the faunal assemblages of planktic foraminifera in 91 surface sediment samples along the Chilean continental slope between 23°S and 44°S. Both d13C and d18O data of N. pachyderma (dex.) show little variability in the study area. North of 39°S, the isotopic values of N. pachyderma (dex.) are heavier than those of G. bulloides, whereas south of 39°S, this relation inverses. This is indicative for a change from a well-mixed, deep thermocline caused by coastal upwelling north of 39°S to well-stratified water masses in a non-upwelling environment south of 39°S. In addition, the faunal composition of planktic foraminifera marks this change by transition from an upwelling assemblage north of 39°S to a high-nutrient-non-upwelling assemblage south of 39°S, which is characterized by decreased contributions of upwelling indicators such as G. bulloides, N. pachyderma (sin.), and Globigerinita glutinata. In general, we can conclude that food and light rather than temperature are the primary control of the planktic foraminiferal assemblage between 23°S and 44°S off Chile. Our data point to higher marine productivity at upwelling centers north of 25°S and at 30-33°S. South of 39°S, significant supply of nutrients by fluvial input most likely boosts the productivity.

Calculated surface water paleotemperatures for the lower Pliocene at DSDP Site 18-173 from the California continental slope (Table I)

The oxygen isotope record of the planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma from Pliocene and early Pleistocene sediments at both DSDP site 173 and the Centerville Beach section in California suggests a large influx of isotopically light water in this area during late Pliocene and early Pleistocene time. Salinity may have been reduced by as much as 2 to 4 ?. Surface sea water paleotemperatures for the lower Pliocene range from 9.5°C to 15.5°C. The oxygen isotope record of the benthonic genus Uvigerina shows little variation indicating environmental stability at depth. At DSDP site 173 the small variation in Uvigerina is due to variation in the oxygen isotopic composition of the oceans as glaciers waxed and waned. At the Centerville Beach section the oxygen isotopic composition of Uvigerina reflects the gradual shoaling of the Humboldt Basin. Carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in G. bulloides and N. pachyderma are inversely correlated at the 95% confidence level. This may indicate that the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition of foraminifera are influenced by the same factors. On the other hand, the inverse correlation may be due to metabolic fractionation. No correlation was found between oxygen and carbon isotopic composition in Uvigerina.