Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

Does immediate loading affect clinical and patient-centered outcomes of mandibular 2-unsplinted-implant overdenture? : a 2-year within-case analysis

Objective To provide 2-year clinical- and patient-oriented data with regard to mandibular overdenture assisted by 2 immediately loaded unsplinted implants. Material and methods In this pre-post design, Phase-I clinical trial, 18 edentate individuals (62.4 ± 7.7 years) received a new set of complete denture. Then, following standard procedures, 3 threaded implants (OsseoSpeed TX™, Dentsply Implants, Mölndal, Sweden) were placed in the mandible in each patient, and locator abutments (Zest Anchors LLC, Escondido, U.S.A.) were inserted on the right and left side implants. The midline implant served as a control for within-patient comparison. The immediate loading was conducted within 24 h of surgery. Data were collected at baseline (T0), 12 (T1) and 24 (T2) months after immediate loading. The clinical outcomes included implant survival rate, crestal bone level changes and implant stability. These criteria were assessed through clinical and radiographic examinations as well as resonance frequency analysis. Patient-centered outcomes included patient satisfaction and oral health-related quality of life measured using validated questionnaires. Brunner-Langer approach was used for statistical analysis. Results Implant survival rate for immediate loaded implants was 91.7% at 2-year follow-up. None of the unloaded implants failed. There was no statistically significant difference at baseline and follow-ups with regard to clinical outcomes between loaded and unloaded implants. Patient satisfaction and quality of life improved (p < 0.0001) from baseline to 2-year follow-up. Conclusion Immediate loading protocol did not negatively affect clinical outcomes, satisfaction and quality of life of patients wearing 2-unsplinted-implant mandibular overdenture for 2 years. This conclusion requires confirmation by randomized control trials. Clinical significance statement Mandibular overdenture assisted by two immediately-loaded unsplinted implants is successful treatment based on 2-year clinical and patient-based outcomes.

Does immediate loading affect clinical and patient-centered outcomes of mandibular 2-unsplinted-implant overdenture? : a 2-year within-case analysis

Objective To provide 2-year clinical- and patient-oriented data with regard to mandibular overdenture assisted by 2 immediately loaded unsplinted implants. Material and methods In this pre-post design, Phase-I clinical trial, 18 edentate individuals (62.4 ± 7.7 years) received a new set of complete denture. Then, following standard procedures, 3 threaded implants (OsseoSpeed TX™, Dentsply Implants, Mölndal, Sweden) were placed in the mandible in each patient, and locator abutments (Zest Anchors LLC, Escondido, U.S.A.) were inserted on the right and left side implants. The midline implant served as a control for within-patient comparison. The immediate loading was conducted within 24 h of surgery. Data were collected at baseline (T0), 12 (T1) and 24 (T2) months after immediate loading. The clinical outcomes included implant survival rate, crestal bone level changes and implant stability. These criteria were assessed through clinical and radiographic examinations as well as resonance frequency analysis. Patient-centered outcomes included patient satisfaction and oral health-related quality of life measured using validated questionnaires. Brunner-Langer approach was used for statistical analysis. Results Implant survival rate for immediate loaded implants was 91.7% at 2-year follow-up. None of the unloaded implants failed. There was no statistically significant difference at baseline and follow-ups with regard to clinical outcomes between loaded and unloaded implants. Patient satisfaction and quality of life improved (p < 0.0001) from baseline to 2-year follow-up. Conclusion Immediate loading protocol did not negatively affect clinical outcomes, satisfaction and quality of life of patients wearing 2-unsplinted-implant mandibular overdenture for 2 years. This conclusion requires confirmation by randomized control trials. Clinical significance statement Mandibular overdenture assisted by two immediately-loaded unsplinted implants is successful treatment based on 2-year clinical and patient-based outcomes.

Project bulletins nos. 1, 2, 3, and 4 : low-flow frequency analysis /

Mode of access: Internet.

Magnetic resonance imaging analysis of the upper cervical spine extensor musculature in an asymptomatic cohort: an index of fat within muscle

AIM: To establish a simple method to quantify muscle/fat constituents in cervical muscles of asymptomatic women using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and to determine whether there is an age effect within a defined age range. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MRI of the upper cervical spine was performed for 42 asymptomatic women aged 18-45 years. The muscle and fat signal intensities on axial spin echo T1-weighted images were quantitatively classified by taking a ratio of the pixel intensity profiles of muscle against those of intermuscular fat for the rectus capitis posterior major and minor and inferior obliquus capitis muscles bilaterally. Inter- and intra-examiner agreement was scrutinized. RESULTS: The average relative values of fat within the upper cervical musculature compared with intermuscular fat indicated that there were only slight variations in indices between the three sets of muscles. There was no significant correlation between age and fat indices. There were significant differences for the relative fat within the muscle compared with intermuscular fat and body mass index for the right rectus capitis posterior major and right and left inferior obliquus capitis muscles (p = 0.032). Intraclass correlation coefficients for intraobserver agreement ranged from 0.94 to 0.98. Inter-rater agreement of the measurements ranged from 0.75 to 0.97. CONCLUSION: A quantitative measure of muscle/fat constituents has been developed, and results of this study indicate that relative fatty infiltration is not a feature of age in the upper cervical extensor muscles of women aged 18-45 years. (C) 2005 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional flood frequency analysis for Newfoundland and Labrador using the L-Moments index-flood method

The L-moments based index-flood procedure had been successfully applied for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) for the Island of Newfoundland in 2002 using data up to 1998. This thesis, however, considered both Labrador and the Island of Newfoundland using the L-Moments index-flood method with flood data up to 2013. For Labrador, the homogeneity test showed that Labrador can be treated as a single homogeneous region and the generalized extreme value (GEV) was found to be more robust than any other frequency distributions. The drainage area (DA) is the only significant variable for estimating the index-flood at ungauged sites in Labrador. In previous studies, the Island of Newfoundland has been considered as four homogeneous regions (A,B,C and D) as well as two Water Survey of Canada's Y and Z sub-regions. Homogeneous regions based on Y and Z was found to provide more accurate quantile estimates than those based on four homogeneous regions. Goodness-of-fit test results showed that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is most suitable for the sub-regions; however, the three-parameter lognormal (LN3) gave a better performance in terms of robustness. The best fitting regional frequency distribution from 2002 has now been updated with the latest flood data, but quantile estimates with the new data were not very different from the previous study. Overall, in terms of quantile estimation, in both Labrador and the Island of Newfoundland, the index-flood procedure based on L-moments is highly recommended as it provided consistent and more accurate result than other techniques such as the regression on quantile technique that is currently used by the government.

Uncertain natural frequency analysis of composite plates including effect of noise – A polynomial neural network approach

Acknowledgement SN and SS gratefully acknowledge the financial support from Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre during this work.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

La survie implantaire suite à une réhabilitation par mise en charge immédiate d’une prothèse totale mandibulaire reliée à deux implants non jumelés : une étude pilote expérimentale

Problématique : Les connaissances théoriques et pratiques au sujet de la mise en charge immédiate d’implants non jumelés chez les édentés sont limitées. Objectifs : Cette étude avait pour but de : (1) déterminer le taux de survie implantaire de 2 implants non jumelés supportant une prothèse totale mandibulaire suite à une mise en charge immédiate, (2) évaluer les changements des niveaux osseux et de stabilité implantaire survenus sur ces 2 implants durant une période de 4 mois et les comparer à un implant témoin, et (3) décrire les complications cliniques associées à ce mode de mise en charge. Méthodologie : Chez 18 individus édentés (âge moyen de 62±7 ans), cette étude de phase I avec un design pré/post a évalué les résultats cliniques suivant la mise en charge immédiate (<48 heures) de 2 implants non jumelés par une prothèse totale mandibulaire. À l’aide de radiographies périapicales, de sondages osseux et d’analyses de la fréquence en résonnance, les niveaux osseux péri-implantaires (en mm) et les niveaux de stabilité implantairte (en ISQ) de ces 2 implants insérés dans la région parasymphysaire ont été évalués à la chirurgie (T0) et au suivi de 4 mois (T1). Un implant non submergé et sans mise en charge inséré dans la région de la symphyse mandibulaire a été utilisé comme témoin. Les données ont été analysées avec des modèles mixtes linéaires, la méthode de Tukey ajustée, l’analyse de variance de Friedman et des tests de rang signés de Wilcoxon. Résultats : De T0 à T1, 3 implants mis en charge immédiatement ont échoué chez 2 patients. Le taux de survie implantaire obtenu était donc de 91,7% (33/36) et, par patient, de 88,9% (16/18). Aucun implant témoin n’a échoué. Les changements osseux documentés radiologiquement et par sondage autour des implants mis en charge immédiatement étaient, respectivement, de -0,2 ± 0,3 mm et de -0,5 ± 0,6 mm. Les pertes d’os de support implantaire n’ont pas été démontrées statistiquement différentes entre les implants avec mise en charge immédiate et les témoins. Les niveaux moyens de stabilité implantaire ont augmenté de 5 ISQ indépendamment de la mise en charge. Les niveaux moyens d’ISQ n’ont pas été démontrés statistiquement différents entre les implants avec mise en charge immédiate et les témoins à T0 ou T1. Cinq des 18 patients n’ont expérimenté aucune complication clinique, alors que 9 en ont eu au moins deux. Hormis les échecs implantaires, aucune de ces complications n’a entraîné de changements au protocole. Conclusion : Les résultats à court terme suggèrent que : (1) le taux de survie implantaire suite au protocole immédiat est similaire à ceux rapportés lors d’un protocole de mise en charge conventionnel (2) les changements d’os de support implantaire et de stabilité ne sont pas différents comparativement à ceux d’un implant témoin, (3) un niveau élevé d’expérience clinique et chirurgicale est requis pour effectuer les procédures et pour gérer les complications associées. Ces résultats préliminaires devraient être confirmés dans une étude clinique de phase II.

Effects of Early Functional Loading on Maintenance of Free Autogenous Bone Graft and Implant Osseointegration: An Experimental Study in Dogs

Purpose: The aim of the present study was to investigate the healing, integration, and maintenance of autogenous onlay bone grafts and implant osseointegration either loaded in the early or the delayed stages. Materials and Methods: A total of 5 male clogs received bilateral blocks of onlay bone grafts harvested from the contralateral alveolar ridge of the mandible. On one side, the bone block was secured by 3 dental implants (3.5 mm x 13.0 mm, Osseospeed; Astra Tech AB, Molndal, Sweden). Two implants at the extremities of the graft were loaded 2 clays after installation by abutment connection and prosthesis (simultaneous implant placement group); the implant in the middle remained unloaded and served as the control. On the other side, the block was fixed with 2 fixation screws inserted in the extremities of the graft. Four weeks later, the fixation screws were replaced with 3 dental implants. The loading procedure (delayed implant placement group) was performed 2 clays later, as described for the simultaneous implant placement sites. The animals were sacrificed 12 weeks after the grafting procedure. Implant stability was measured through resonance frequency analysis. The bone volume and density were assessed on computed tomography. The bone to implant contact and bone area in a region of interest were evaluated on histologic slides. Results: The implant stability quotient showed statistical significance in favor of the delayed loaded grafts (P=.001). The bone-to-implant contact (P=.008) and bone area in a region of interest (P=0.005) were significantly greater in the delayed group. Nevertheless, no difference was found in terms of graft volume and density between the early loaded and delayed-loaded approaches. Conclusions: The protocol in which the implant and bone graft were given delayed loading allows for effective quality of implant osseointegration and stabilization, with healing and remodeling occurring in areas near the implant resulting in denser bone architecture. (C) 2010 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Sing 68:825-832, 2010

Early loading of single crowns supported by 6-mm-long implants with a moderately rough surface: a prospective 2-year follow-up cohort study

AimTo evaluate prospectively the clinical and radiographic outcomes after 2 years of loading of 6 mm long moderately rough implants supporting single crowns in the posterior regions.Material and methodsForty SLActive Straumann (R) short (6 mm) implants were placed in 35 consecutively treated patients. Nineteen implants, 4.1 mm in diameter, and 21 implants, 4.8 mm in diameter, were installed. Implants were loaded after 6 weeks of healing. Implant survival rate, marginal bone loss and resonance frequency analysis (RFA) were evaluated at different intervals. The clinical crown/implant ratio was also calculated.ResultsTwo out of 40 implants were lost before loading. Hence, the survival rate before loading was 95%. No further technical or biological complications were encountered during the 2-year follow-up. The mean marginal bone loss before loading was 0.34 +/- 0.38 mm. After loading, the mean marginal bone loss was 0.23 +/- 0.33 and 0.21 +/- 0.39 mm at the 1- and 2-year follow-ups. The RFA values increased between insertion (70.2 +/- 9) and the 6-week evaluation (74.8 +/- 6.1). The clinical crown/implant ratio increased with time from 1.5 at the delivery of the prosthesis to 1.8 after 2 years of loading.ConclusionShort implants (6 mm) with a moderately rough surface loaded early (after 6 weeks) during healing yielded high implant survival rates and moderate loss of bone after 2 years of loading. Longer observation periods are needed to draw more definite conclusions on the reliability of short implants supporting single crowns.To cite this article:Rossi F, Ricci E, Marchetti C, Lang NP, Botticelli D. Early loading of single crowns supported by 6-mm-long implants with a moderately rough surface: a prospective 2-year follow-up cohort study.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 21, 2010; 937-943.doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0501.2010.01942.x.

Bone reformation and implant integration following maxillary sinus membrane elevation: An experimental study in primates

Background: Recent clinical studies have described maxillary sinus floor augmentation by simply elevating the maxillary sinus membrane without the use of adjunctive grafting materials. Purpose: This experimental study aimed at comparing the histologic outcomes of sinus membrane elevation and simultaneous placement of implants with and without adjunctive autogenous bone grafts. The purpose was also to investigate the role played by the implant surface in osseointegration under such circumstances. Materials and Methods: Four tufted capuchin primates had all upper premolars and the first molar extracted bilaterally. Four months later, the animals underwent maxillary sinus membrane elevation surgery using a replaceable bone window technique. The schneiderian membrane was kept elevated by insertion of two implants (turned and oxidized, Brånemark System®, Nobel Biocare AB, Göteborg, Sweden) in both sinuses. The right sinus was left with no additional treatment, whereas the left sinus was filled with autogenous bone graft. Implant stability was assessed through resonance frequency analysis (Osstell™, Integration Diagnostics AB, Göteborg, Sweden) at installation and at sacrifice. The pattern of bone formation in the experimental sites and related to the different implant surfaces was investigated using fluorochromes. The animals were sacrificed 6 months after the maxillary sinus floor augmentation procedure for histology and histomorphometry (bone-implant contact, bone area in threads, and bone area in rectangle). Results: The results showed no differences between membrane-elevated and grafted sites regarding implant stability, bone-implant contacts, and bone area within and outside implant threads. The oxidized implants exhibited improved integration compared with turned ones as higher values of bone-implant contact and bone area within threads were observed. Conclusions: The amount of augmented bone tissue in the maxillary sinus after sinus membrane elevation with or without adjunctive autogenous bone grafts does not differ after 6 months of healing. New bone is frequently deposited in contact with the schneiderian membrane in coagulum-alone sites, indicating the osteoinductive potential of the membrane. Oxidized implants show a stronger bone tissue response than turned implants in sinus floor augmentation procedures. © 2006 Blackwell Publishing, Inc.

Histological findings following the use of a space-making device for bone reformation and implant integration in the maxillary sinus of primates

Background: Previous studies have shown that membrane elevation results in predictable bone formation in the maxillary sinus provided that implants can be placed as tent poles. In situations with an extremely thin residual crest which impairs implant placement, it is possible that a space-making device can be used under the sinus membrane to promote bone formation prior to placement of implants. Purpose: The present study was conducted to test the hypothesis that the use of a space-making device for elevation of the sinus membrane will result in predictable bone formation at the maxillary sinus floor to allow placement of dental implants. Materials and Methods: Eight tufted capuchin primates underwent bilateral sinus membrane elevation surgery, and a bioresorbable space-making device, about 6 mm wide and 6 mm in height, was placed below the elevated membrane on the sinus floor. An oxidized implant (Nobel Biocare AB, Gothenburg, Sweden) was installed in the residual bone protruding into the created space at one side while the other side was left without an implant. Four animals were sacrificed after 6 months of healing. The remaining four animals received a second implant in the side with a space-making device only and followed for another 3 months before sacrifice. Implant stability was assessed through resonance frequency analysis (RFA) using the Osstell™ (Osstell AB, Gothenburg, Sweden) at installation, 6 months and 9 months after the first surgery. The bone-implant contact (BIC) and bone area inside the threads (BA) were histometrically evaluated in ground sections. Results: Histologically there were only minor or no signs of bone formation in the sites with a space-making device only. Sites with simultaneous implant placement showed bone formation along the implant surface. Sites with delayed implant placement showed minor or no bone formation and/or formation of a dense fibrous tissue along the apical part of the implant surface. In the latter group the apical part of the implant was not covered with the membrane but protruded into the sinus cavity. Conclusions: The use of a space-making device, with the design used in the present study, does not result in bone formation at the sinus floor. However, membrane elevation and simultaneous placement of the device and an implant does result in bone formation at the implant surface while sites with implants placed 6 months after membrane elevation show only small amounts of bone formation. It is suggested that lack of stabilization of the device and/or a too extensive elevation of the membrane may explain the results. © 2009, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.