Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures.

A method for the economic valuation of animal welfare benefits using a single welfare score

Unless the benefits to society of measures to protect and improve the welfare of animals are made transparent by means of their valuation they are likely to go unrecognised and cannot easily be weighed against the costs of such measures as required, for example, by policy-makers. A simple single measure scoring system, based on the Welfare Quality® index, is used, together with a choice experiment economic valuation method, to estimate the value that people place on improvements to the welfare of different farm animal species measured on a continuous (0-100) scale. Results from using the method on a survey sample of some 300 people show that it is able to elicit apparently credible values. The survey found that 96% of respondents thought that we have a moral obligation to safeguard the welfare of animals and that over 72% were concerned about the way farm animals are treated. Estimated mean annual willingness to pay for meat from animals with improved welfare of just one point on the scale was £5.24 for beef cattle, £4.57 for pigs and £5.10 for meat chickens. Further development of the method is required to capture the total economic value of animal welfare benefits. Despite this, the method is considered a practical means for obtaining economic values that can be used in the cost-benefit appraisal of policy measures intended to improve the welfare of animals.

Cocoa flavanol intake improves endothelial function and Framingham Risk Score in healthy men and women: a randomised, controlled, double-masked trial: the Flaviola Health Study

Cocoa flavanol (CF) intake improves endothelial function in patients with cardiovascular risk factors and disease. We investigated the effects of CF on surrogate markers of cardiovascular health in low risk, healthy, middle-aged individuals without history, signs or symptoms of CVD. In a 1-month, open-label, one-armed pilot study, bi-daily ingestion of 450 mg of CF led to a time-dependent increase in endothelial function (measured as flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD)) that plateaued after 2 weeks. Subsequently, in a randomised, controlled, double-masked, parallel-group dietary intervention trial (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01799005), 100 healthy, middle-aged (35–60 years) men and women consumed either the CF-containing drink (450 mg) or a nutrient-matched CF-free control bi-daily for 1 month. The primary end point was FMD. Secondary end points included plasma lipids and blood pressure, thus enabling the calculation of Framingham Risk Scores and pulse wave velocity. At 1 month, CF increased FMD over control by 1·2 % (95 % CI 1·0, 1·4 %). CF decreased systolic and diastolic blood pressure by 4·4 mmHg (95 % CI 7·9, 0·9 mmHg) and 3·9 mmHg (95 % CI 6·7, 0·9 mmHg), pulse wave velocity by 0·4 m/s (95 % CI 0·8, 0·04 m/s), total cholesterol by 0·20 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·39, 0·01 mmol/l) and LDL-cholesterol by 0·17 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·32, 0·02 mmol/l), whereas HDL-cholesterol increased by 0·10 mmol/l (95 % CI 0·04, 0·17 mmol/l). By applying the Framingham Risk Score, CF predicted a significant lowering of 10-year risk for CHD, myocardial infarction, CVD, death from CHD and CVD. In healthy individuals, regular CF intake improved accredited cardiovascular surrogates of cardiovascular risk, demonstrating that dietary flavanols have the potential to maintain cardiovascular health even in low-risk subjects.

Fatigue and workability in Brazilian textile companies in different corporate social responsibility score groups

The aim of this study was to evaluate working conditions in the textile industry for different stages of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) development, and workers` perception of fatigue and workability. A cross-sectional study was undertaken with 126 workers in the production areas of five Brazilian textile plants. The corporate executive officers and managers of each company provided their personal evaluations of CSR. Companies were divided into 2 groups (higher and lower) of CSR scores. Workers completed questionnaires on fatigue, workability and working conditions. Ergonomic job analysis showed similar results for working conditions, independent of their CSR score. Multivariate analysis models were developed for fatigue and workability, indicating that they are both associated to factors related to working conditions and individual workers` characteristics and life styles. Work organization, (what, how, when, where and for how long the work is done), is also an associated factor for fatigue. This study suggests that workers` opinions should be taken into greater consideration when companies develop their CSR programs, in particular for those relating to working conditions. Relevance to industry: This paper underlines the importance of considering working conditions and workers` opinions of them, work organization and individual workers` characteristics and life styles in order to restore or to maintain workability and to reduce fatigue, independently of how developed a company may be in the field of Corporate Social Responsibility. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fabrication of disposable voltammetric electronic tongues by using Prussian Blue films electrodeposited onto CD-R gold surfaces and recognition of milk adulteration

A new approach to fabricate a disposable electronic tongue is reported. The fabrication of the disposable sensor aimed the integration of all electrodes necessary for measurement in the same device. The disposable device was constructed with gold CD-R and copper sheets substrates and the sensing elements were gold, copper and a gold surface modified with a layer of Prussian Blue. The relative standard deviation for signals obtained from 20 different disposable gold and 10 different disposable copper electrodes was below 3.5%. The performance, electrode materials and the capability of the device to differentiate samples were evaluated for taste substances model, milk with different pasteurization processes (homogenized/pasteurized, ultra high temperature (UHT) pasteurized and UHT pasteurized with low fat content) and adulterated with hydrogen peroxide. In all analysed cases, a good separation between different samples was noticed in the score plots obtained from the principal component analysis (PCA). Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sexscener med filmmusik av kvinnliga kompositörer : En undersökning av filmmusik i sexscener i fyra moderna västerländska filmer, där USA är ett av produktionsländerna

I detta arbete analyseras filmmusiken, skriven av kvinnliga kompositörer, som spelas i sexscener i fyra moderna spelfilmer där USA är ett av produktionsländerna. Vassili Neplokhs analysmetod består av fem musikaliska parametrar. Författaren sammanställer även forskning som berör ämnet inom bland annat musikpsykologi och utökar en redan fungerande metod med fler parametrar som grundar sig i musikpsykologi. Avslutningsvis jämförs studiens resultat med resultat av en tidigare utförd undersökning av manliga kompositörers filmmusik i sexscener.

Genetic parameters and environmental effects on temperament score and reproductive traits of Nellore cattle

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Immunotherapy against experimental canine visceral leishmaniasis with the saponin enriched-Leishmune((R)) vaccine

In order to assess the immunotherapeutic potential on canine visceral leishmaniasis of the Leishmune (R) vaccine, formulated with an increased adjuvant concentration (1 mg of saponin rather than 0.5 mg), 24 mongrel dogs were infected with Leishmania (L.) chagasi. The enriched-Leishmune (R) vaccine was injected on month 6, 7 and 8 after infection, when animals were seropositive and symptomatic. The control group were injected with a saline solution. Leishmune (R)-treated dogs showed significantly higher levels of anti-FML IgG antibodies (ANOVA; p < 0.0001), a higher and stable IgG2 and a decreasing IgG I response, pointing to a TH1 T cell mediated response. The vaccine had the following effects: it led to more positive delayed type hypersensitivity reactions against Leishmania lysate in vaccinated dogs (75%) than in controls (50%), to a decreased average of CD4+ Leishmania-specific lymphocytes in saline controls (32.13%) that fell outside the 95% confidence interval of the vaccinees (41.62%, CI95% 43.93-49.80) and an increased average of the clinical scores from the saline controls (17.83) that falls outside the 95% confidence interval for the Leishmune (R) immumotherapy-treated dogs (15.75, CI95% 13.97-17.53). All dogs that received the vaccine were clustered, and showed lower clinical scores and normal CD4+ counts, whereas 42% of the untreated dogs showed very diminished CD4+ and higher clinical score. The increase in clinical signs of the saline treated group was correlated with an increase in anti-FML antibodies (p < 0.0001), the parasitological evidence (p = 0.038) and a decrease in Leishinania-specific CD4+ lymphocyte proportions (p = 0.035). These results confirm the immunotherapeutic potential of the enriched-Leishmune (R) vaccine. The vaccine reduced the clinical symptoms and evidence of parasite, modulating the outcome of the infection and the dog's potential infectiosity to phlebotomines. The enriched-Leishmune (R) vaccine was subjected to a safety analysis and found to be well tolerated and safe. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nutritional assessment of hospitalized HIV-infected patients by the phase angle z-score measurement

Background: This study analyzed the phase-angle (PA) values of hospitalized HVI-infected patients by comparing them with those reported for a healthy population and investigated their relation with nutritional parameters.Methods: This is a cross-sectional study including 101 hospitalized patients diagnosed with HIV infection and evaluated by bioimpedance, anthropometry and biochemical tests. The phase angle values, weight loss percentage (%WL), body mass index (BMI), arm muscle circumference (AMC), tricipital skinfold (TSF), body fat percentage (%BF) and albumin were considered. In order to compare with values for the healthy population, the PA z-score of the patients under study was calculated. Spearman's correlation and the multiple linear regression model were used to identify nutritional parameters associated with the PA z-score.Results: The patients showed a mean PA z-score of -2.6 +/- 1.5, and only 6.6% of them with a positive value. The PA z-score values correlated with %WL (r = -0.51; p < 0.0001), albumin (r = 0.49; p < 0.0001), BMI (r = 0.58; p < 0.0001), AMC (r = 0.41; p < 0.0001), TSF (r = 0.47; p < 0.001) and %BF (r = 0.48, p < 0.0001). In multiple analysis %WL (p = 0.008), albumin (p = 0.01), AMC (p < 0.0001) and %BF (p = 0.0003) remained associated with the score.Conclusions: Low PA z-score values were observed, suggesting a worse clinical prognosis for the patients. The inclusion of the PA z-score as a nutritional indicator during care provision to HIV-infected patients is recommended. (Nutr Hosp. 2012;27:771-774) DOI:10.3305/nh.2012.27.3.5684

Discalculia do desenvolvimento: avaliação da representação numérica pela ZAREKI-R

O presente estudo investigou aspectos da representação numérica (processamento numérico e cálculo) e memória operacional de crianças com transtornos de aprendizagem. Participaram 30 crianças de idade entre 9 e 10 anos, ambos os gêneros, divididas em dois grupos: sem dificuldade em aritmética (SDA; N=11) e com dificuldade em aritmética (CDA; N=19), avaliadas pela ZAREKI-R, Matrizes Coloridas de Raven, o Blocos de Corsi e o BCPR. Crianças CDA exibiram escores levemente mais baixos que as SDA quanto ao nível intelectual e nos Blocos de Corsi. Na ZAREKI-R apresentaram prejuízo nos subtestes ditado de números, cálculo mental, problemas aritméticos e total. Crianças CDA apresentaram déficits específicos em memória operacional visuoespacial e comprometimento em processamento numérico e cálculo, compatível com discalculia do desenvolvimento.

Clinical Study of a Multivitamin and Polymineral Complex Associated With Panax ginseng Extract (Natus Gerin (R))

This study aimed to stablish the efficacy of a multivitamin and polyminerals supplemented with Panax ginseng extract (Natus Gerin(R)) on patients subjected to common physical or mental stress. Patients were randomly divided in two groups and underwent a thorough clinical examination. Group A received Natus Gerin(R) capsules and B placebo capsules. Two capsules were taken daily during meals during four weeks. Mood and physical activity were evaluated through a questionnaire assessing quality of life. From the 176 patients enrolled, 17 were excluded due to voluntary withdrawal, 81 completed the study in group A and 78 in group B. The treatment with Natus Gerin(R) increased the quality of life when compared to placebo. After 15 and 30 days, group A showed a significant increase in average scoring score from 1.78 to 3.78, and finally 5.32 points. The study has shown that the daily use of Natus Gerin(R) can be effective in improving quality of life in patients suffering from physical and mental stress.

Phase II clinical study of an association for the treatment of interstitial cystitis (Cystex (R))

Painful bladder syndrome associated with interstitial cystitis (PBS/IC) is a clinical condition characterized pelvic pain, urinary urgency, and urinary frequency. In this study, 22 patients were assigned to make two visits over a three weeks period. The patients were randomly, double-blinded assigned in two groups. The first group received Cystex (R) capsules. The second group received placebo capsules. Two capsules were taken three times a day away from meals. The change from baseline in the O'Leary-Sant IC symptom and problem index was the primary outcome parameter. Changes in functional bladder capacity and intensity of pain and urgency have been chosen as secondary outcome parameters. Mood as well as physical and sexual activity were rated by 10 questions on a scale 0 to 6. The ratings were analyzed and the average for each patient in both groups Cystex (R) and placebo was determined as the quality of life index. For the primary outcome there was a statistically significant difference between the groups. Mean symptom score-sum decreased from 28.4 to 20.5 in the Cystex (R) group compared with 29.5 to 26.8 in the placebo group (p<0.05). For the secondary end points, pain and urgency intensity improved statistically significantly in the Cystex (R) group compared with the placebo group (p<0.05). The frequency and functional bladder capacity improved to greater degree in the Cystex (R) group. The differences were statistically significant for comparison of frequency (p<0.05) and not for functional bladder capacity (p>0.05). In our study, Cystex (R) enhanced quality of life over the placebo showing a statistically significant. This trial have shown that the efficacy and safety of therapy with Cystex (R) in the treatment of interstitial cystitis and is an alternative for patients suffering from this pathology. Therefore, it can be concluded that the composition of Cystex (R), increased the quality of life in treated patients.

Genotype by environment interaction for post-weaning weight gain, scrotal circumference, and muscling score of composite beef cattle in different regions of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)