Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

Beyond compliance : project on an integrated systems approach for pest risk management in South East Asia

The Beyond Compliance project, which began in July 2011 with funding from the Standards and Trade Development Facility for 2 years, aims to enhance competency and confidence in the South East Asian sub-region by applying a Systems Approach for pest risk management. The Systems Approach involves the use of integrated measures, at least two of which are independent, that cumulatively reduce the risk of introducing exotic pests through trade. Although useful in circumstances where single measures are inappropriate or unavailable, the Systems Approach is inherently more complicated than single-measure approaches, which may inhibit its uptake. The project methodology is to take prototype decision-support tools, such as Control Point-Bayesian Networks (CP-BN), developed in recent plant health initiatives in other regions, including the European PRATIQUE project, and to refine them within this sub-regional context. Case studies of high-priority potential agricultural trade will be conducted by National Plant Protection Organizations of participating South East Asian countries in trials of the tools, before further modifications. Longer term outcomes may include: more robust pest risk management in the region (for exports and imports); greater inclusion of stakeholders in development of pest risk management plans; increased confidence in trade negotiations; and new opportunities for trade.

Virtual 3D models of insects for accelerated quarantine control

We learn from the past that invasive species have caused tremendous damage to native species and serious disruption to agricultural industries. It is crucial for us to prevent this in the future. The first step of this process is to identify correctly an invasive species from native ones. Current identification methods, relying on mainly 2D images, can result in low accuracy and be time consuming. Such methods provide little help to a quarantine officer who has time constraints to response when on duty. To deal with this problem, we propose new solutions using 3D virtual models of insects. We explain how working with insects in the 3D domain can be much better than the 2D domain. We also describe how to create true-color 3D models of insects using an image-based 3D reconstruction method. This method is ideal for quarantine control and inspection tasks that involve the verification of a physical specimen against known invasive species. Finally we show that these insect models provide valuable material for other applications such as research, education, arts and entertainment. © 2013 IEEE.

Redescription of adult and larva of Colasposoma sellaturn Baly (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Eumolpinae): a pest of sweet potato in Australia

The genus Colasposorna Laporte is shown to be represented in Australia by a single species, C. sellaturn Baly (= C. barbaturn Harold, syn. conf.; = C. regulare Jacoby, syn. nov.). The adult and larva are described and lectotypes designated for C. sellaturn and C. regulare. Colasposoma sellaturn is recorded from the Northern Territory, northern Queensland and New Guinea. This species is a pest of Ipomoea batatas (sweet potato) in northern Queensland, where the adults damage stems and foliage and larvae may cause considerable damage to tubers. Its pest status is assessed and control measures discussed.

Cane Weevil Borer, Rhabdoscelus obscurus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), a pest of palms in Northern Queensland, Australia

In recent years the cultivation of ornamental palms (Arecaceae) has increased markedly in northern Queensland. Consequently, several insects have become important pests, particularly Rhabdoscelus obscurus (Boisduval), the cane weevil borer. The larvae of this beetle feed on various species of palms, making the plants unsaleable. Death or lodging of the trees may also result. This paper documents its pest status, derived from information in the literature and from consultation with local growers.

A sampling technique for two-spotted mite in papaya

Two-spotted mite, Tetranychus urticae Koch, was until recently regarded as a minor and infrequent pest of papaya in Queensland through the dry late winter/early summer months. The situation has changed over the past 4-5 years, so that now some growers consider spider mites significant pests all year round. This altered pest status corresponded with a substantial increase in the use of fungicides to control black spot (Asperisporium caricae). A project was initiated in 1998 to examine the potential reasons for escalating mite problems in commercially-grown papaya, which included regular sampling over a 2 year period for mites, mite damage and beneficial arthropods on a number of farms on the wet tropical coast and drier Atherton Tableland. Differences in soil type, papaya variety, chemical use and some agronomic practices were included in this assessment. Monthly visits were made to each site where 20 randomly-selected plants from each of 2 papaya lines (yellow and red types) were surveyed. Three leaves were selected from each plant, one from each of the bottom, middle and top strata of leaves. The numbers of mobile predators were recorded, along with visual estimates of the percentage and age of mite damage on each leaf. Leaves were then sprayed with hairspray to fix the mites and immature predators to the leaf surface. Four leaf disks, 25 mm in diameter, were then punched from each leaf into a 50 ml storage container with a purpose-built disk-cutting tool. Disks from each leaf position were separated by tissue paper, within the container. On return to the laboratory, each leaf disk was scrutinised under a binocular microscope to determine the numbers of two-spotted mites and eggs, predatory mites and eggs, and the immature stages of predatory insects (mainly Stethorus, Halmus and lacewings). A total of 2160 leaf disks have been examined each month. All data have been entered into an Access database to facilitate comparisons between sites.

Sigastus weevil - an emerging pest of macadamias in north Queensland

A large weevil was found infesting macadamia nuts on the Atherton Tableland during the 1994/95 season. It was unrepresented in various Australian insect collections but thought to belong to the genus Sigastus. This paper reports some preliminary studies on its biology, pest status and control. From 4-6 weeks after first nut-set adult females commence laying single eggs through the husk, after first scarifying an oviposition site. The nut stalk is then cleaved leading to rapid abscission. Nuts were generally attacked up until hard shell formation. Weevil larvae consumed whole kernels, with % survival higher and larval duration shorter in larger nuts. Infestation rates increased with increasing nut diameter, reaching 72.8% of fallen nuts by mid-October. A crop loss of 30% could be attributed to weevils in an unsprayed orchard. However, adult weevils are very susceptible to both carbaryl and methidathion sprays. In addition, exposure of infested nuts to full sunlight over several weeks kills 100% of larvae. Crops should be surveyed for weevil damage from the 5-10 mm diameter stage until mid-December. Methidathion used as an initial spray for fruitspotting bugs should provide control. Organic growers are advised to sweep infested nuts into mown interrows where solarisation will kill larvae.

Impact of mirid (Creontiades spp.) (Hemiptera: Miridae) pest management on Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) outbreaks: The case for conserving natural enemies

Creontiades spp. (Hemiptera: Miridae) are sucking pests that attack buds, flowers and young pods in mungbeans, Vigna radiata (L.), causing these structures subsequently to abort. If left uncontrolled, mirids can cause 25-50% yield loss. Traditional industry practice has involved prophylactic applications of dimethoate to control mirids at budding and again a week later. The present trial was initiated to highlight the dangers of such a practice, in particular the risk of a subsequent Helicoverpa spp. lepidopteran pest outbreak. A single application of dimethoate halved the population of important natural enemies of Helicoverpa spp., and caused an above-threshold outbreak of Helicoverpa spp. within 11 days. This shows that even a moderate (e.g. 50%) reduction in natural enemies may be sufficient to increase Helicoverpa spp. populations in mungbeans. As a result, prophylactic sprays should not be used for the control of mirids in mungbeans, and dimethoate should be applied only when mirids are above the economic threshold. Indoxacarb was also tested to establish its effect on Helicoverpa spp., mirids and natural enemies. Indoxacarb showed potential for Helicoverpa spp. control and suppression of mirids and had little impact on natural enemies.

Utilizing the assassin bug, Pristhesancus plagipennis (Hemiptera: Reduviidae), as a biological control agent within an integrated pest management programme for Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and Creontiades spp. (Hemiptera: Miridae) in cotton

Helicoverpa spp. and mirids, Creontiades spp., have been difficult to control biologically in cotton due to their unpredictable temporal abundance combined with a cropping environment often made hostile by frequent usage of broad spectrum insecticides. To address this problem, a range of new generation insecticides registered for use in cotton were tested for compatibility with the assassin bug, Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker), a potential biological control agent for Helicoverpa spp. and Creontiades spp. Indoxacarb, pyriproxifen, buprofezin, spinosad and fipronil were found to be of low to moderate toxicity on P. plagipennis whilst emamectin benzoate, abamectin, diafenthiuron, imidacloprid and omethaote were moderate to highly toxic. Inundative releases of P. plagipennis integrated with insecticides identified as being of low toxicity were then tested and compared with treatments of P. plagipennis and the compatible insecticides used alone, conventionally sprayed usage practice and an untreated control during two field experiments in cotton. The biological control provided by P. plagipennis nymphs when combined with compatible insecticides provided significant (P<0.001) reductions in Helicoverpa and Creontiades spp. on cotton and provided equivalent yields to conventionally sprayed cotton with half of the synthetic insecticide input. Despite this, the utilization of P. plagipennis in cotton as part of an integrated pest management programme remains unlikely due to high inundative release costs relative to other control technologies such as insecticides and transgenic (Bt) cotton varieties.

Root-lesion nematodes (Pratylenchus thornei and P. neglectus): A review of recent progress in managing a significant pest of grain crops in northern Australia

Two species of root-lesion nematode (predominantly Pratylenchus thornei but also P. neglectus) are widespread pathogens of wheat and other crops in Australia's northern grain belt, a subtropical region with deep, fertile clay soils and a summer-dominant rainfall pattern. Losses in grain yield from P. thornei can be as high as 70% for intolerant wheat cultivars. This review focuses on research which has led to the development of effective integrated management programs for these nematodes. It highlights the importance of correct identification in managing Pratylenchus species, reviews the plant breeding work done in developing tolerant and resistant cultivars, outlines the methods used to screen for tolerance and resistance, and discusses how planned crop sequencing with tolerant and partially resistant wheat cultivars, together with crops such as sorghum, sunflower, millets and canaryseed, can be used to reduce nematode populations and limit crop damage. The declining levels of soil organic matter in cropped soils are also discussed with reference to their effect on soil health and biological suppression of root-lesion nematodes.

The complexities of knowing what it is you are trapping

The effectiveness of any trapping system is highly dependent on the ability to accurately identify the specimens collected. For many fruit fly species, accurate identification (= diagnostics) using morphological or molecular techniques is relatively straightforward and poses few technical challenges. However, nearly all genera of pest tephritids also contain groups of species where single, stand-alone tools are not sufficient for accurate identification: such groups include the Bactrocera dorsalis complex, the Anastrepha fraterculus complex and the Ceratitis FAR complex. Misidentification of high-impact species from such groups can have dramatic consequences and negate the benefits of an otherwise effective trapping program. To help prevent such problems, this chapter defines what is meant by a species complex and describes in detail how the correct identification of species within a complex requires the use of an integrative taxonomic approach. Integrative taxonomy uses multiple, independent lines of evidence to delimit species boundaries, and the underpinnings of this approach from both the theoretical speciation literature and the systematics/taxonomy literature are described. The strength of the integrative approach lies in the explicit testing of hypotheses and the use of multiple, independent species delimitation tools. A case is made for a core set of species delimitation tools (pre- and post-zygotic compatibility tests, multi-locus phylogenetic analysis, chemoecological studies, and morphometric and geometric morphometric analyses) to be adopted as standards by tephritologists aiming to resolve economically important species complexes. In discussing the integrative approach, emphasis is placed on the subtle but important differences between integrative and iterative taxonomy. The chapter finishes with a case study that illustrates how iterative taxonomy applied to the B. dorsalis species complex led to incorrect taxonomic conclusions, which has had major implications for quarantine, trade, and horticultural pest management. In contrast, an integrative approach to the problem has resolved species limits in this taxonomically difficult group, meaning that robust diagnostics are now available.

Temporal variation in arthropod sampling effectiveness: The case for using the beat sheet method in cotton

Predatory insects and spiders are key elements of integrated pest management (IPM) programmes in agricultural crops such as cotton. Management decisions in IPM programmes should to be based on a reliable and efficient method for counting both predators and pests. Knowledge of the temporal constraints that influence sampling is required because arthropod abundance estimates are likely to vary over a growing season and within a day. Few studies have adequately quantified this effect using the beat sheet, a potentially important sampling method. We compared the commonly used methods of suction and visual sampling to the beat sheet, with reference to an absolute cage clamp method for determining the abundance of various arthropod taxa over 5 weeks. There were significantly more entomophagous arthropods recorded using the beat sheet and cage clamp methods than by using suction or visual sampling, and these differences were more pronounced as the plants grew. In a second trial, relative estimates of entomophagous and phytophagous arthropod abundance were made using beat sheet samples collected over a day. Beat sheet estimates of the abundance of only eight of the 43 taxa examined were found to vary significantly over a day. Beat sheet sampling is recommended in further studies of arthropod abundance in cotton, but researchers and pest management advisors should bear in mind the time of season and time of day effects.

Pest management in Queensland strawberries: Reality bites, and growers' perspectives change!

Prior to the 1980s, arthropod pest control in Queensland strawberries was based entirely on calendar sprays of insecticides (mainly endosulfan, triclorfon, dimethoate and carbaryl) and a miticide (dicofol). These chemicals were applied frequently and spider mite outbreaks occurred every season. The concept of integrated pest management (IPM) had not been introduced to growers, and the suggestion that an alternative to the standard chemical pest control recipe might be available, was ignored. Circumstances changed when the predatory mite, Phytoseiulus persimilis Athios-Henriot, became available commercially in Australia, providing the opportunity to manage spider mites, the major pests of strawberries, with an effective biological agent. Trials conducted on commercial farms in the early 1980s indicated that a revolution in strawberry pest management was at hand, but the industry generally remained sceptical and afraid to adopt the new strategy. Lessons are learnt from disasters and the consequent monetary loss that ensues, and in 1993, such an event relating to ineffective spider mite control, spawned the revolution we had to have. Farm-oriented research and evolving grower perspectives have resulted in the acceptance of biological control of spider mites using Phytoseiulus persimilis and the 'pest in first' technique, and it now forms the basis of an IPM system that is used on more than 80% of the Queensland strawberry crop.

An overview of integrated pest management (IPM) in north-eastern Australian grain farming systems: Past, present and future prospects

The authors overview integrated pest management (IPM) in grain crops in north-eastern Australia, which is defined as the area north of latitude 32°S. Major grain crops in this region include the coarse grains (winter and summer cereals), oilseeds and pulses. IPM in these systems is complicated by the diversity of crops, pests, market requirements and cropping environments. In general, the pulse crops are at greatest risk, followed by oilseeds and then by cereal grains. Insecticides remain a key grain pest management tool in north-eastern Australia. IPM in grain crops has benefited considerably through the increased adoption of new, more selective insecticides and biopesticides for many caterpillar pests, in particular Helicoverpa spp. and loopers, and the identification of pest-crop scenarios where spraying is unnecessary (e.g. for most Creontiades spp. populations in soybeans). This has favoured the conservation of natural enemies in north-eastern Australia grain crops, and has arguably assisted in the management of silverleaf whitefly in soybeans in coastal Queensland. However, control of sucking pests and podborers such as Maruca vitrata remains a major challenge for IPM in summer pulses. Because these crops have very low pest-damage tolerances and thresholds, intervention with disruptive insecticides is frequently required, particularly during podfill. The threat posed by silverleaf whitefly demands ongoing multi-pest IPM research, development and extension as this pest can flare under favourable seasonal conditions, especially where disruptive insecticides are used injudiciously. The strong links between researchers and industry have facilitated the adoption of IPM practices in north-eastern Australia and augers well for future pest challenges and for the development and promotion of new and improved IPM tactics.