981 resultados para Quantitative estimates


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Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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The dissertation consists of three essays on international research and development spillovers. In the first essay, I investigate the degree to which differences in institutional arrangements among Sub-Saharan African countries determine the extent of benefits they derive from foreign research and development spillovers. In particular, I compare the international research and development spillovers for English common law and French civil law Sub-Saharan African countries. I show that differences in the legal origin of the company law or commercial codes in these countries may reflect the extent of barriers they place in the paths of firms that engage in the investment process. To tests this hypothesis, I constructed foreign R&D spillovers variable using imports as weights and employed the endogenous growth framework to estimate elasticities of productivity with respect to foreign R&D spillovers for a sample of 17 English common law and French Civil law Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980-2004. My results find support for the hypothesis. In particular, foreign R&D spillovers were higher in the English common law countries than in the French civil law countries. In the second essay, I examine the question of whether technical cooperation grants and overseas development assistance grants induce R&D knowledge spillovers in Sub-Saharan African countries. I test this hypothesis using data for 11 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980-2004. I constructed foreign R&D spillovers using the technical cooperation grants and overseas development assistance grants as weights and employed the endogenous growth framework to provide quantitative estimates of foreign R&D spillover effects in 11 Sub-Saharan African countries. I find that technical cooperation grants and overseas development assistance grants are major mechanisms through which returns to R&D investments in G7 countries flows to Sub-Saharan African countries. However, their influence has declined over the years. Finally, the third essay tests the hypothesis that the relationship between a country's exporters and their foreign purchasing agents may lead to the exchange of ideas and thereby improve the manufacturing process and productivity in the exporting country. I test this hypothesis using disaggregated export data from OECD countries. The foreign R&D capital stock in this essay was constructed as exports weighted average of domestic R&D capital stock. I find empirical support for the hypothesis. In particular, capital goods exports generate more learning effects and therefore best explain productivity in OECD countries than non-capital goods exports.

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The heating of the solar corona has been investigated during four of decades and several mechanisms able to produce heating have been proposed. It has until now not been possible to produce quantitative estimates that would establish any of these heating mechanism as the most important in the solar corona. In order to investigate which heating mechanism is the most important, a more detailed approach is needed. In this thesis, the heating problem is approached ”ab initio”, using well observed facts and including realistic physics in a 3D magneto-hydrodynamic simulation of a small part of the solar atmosphere. The ”engine” of the heating mechanism is the solar photospheric velocity field, that braids the magnetic field into a configuration where energy has to be dissipated. The initial magnetic field is taken from an observation of a typical magnetic active region scaled down to fit inside the computational domain. The driving velocity field is generated by an algorithm that reproduces the statistical and geometrical fingerprints of solar granulation. Using a standard model atmosphere as the thermal initial condition, the simulation goes through a short startup phase, where the initial thermal stratification is quickly forgotten, after which the simulation stabilizes in statistical equilibrium. In this state, the magnetic field is able to dissipate the same amount of energy as is estimated to be lost through radiation, which is the main energy loss mechanism in the solar corona. The simulation produces heating that is intermittent on the smallest resolved scales and hot loops similar to those observed through narrow band filters in the ultra violet. Other observed characteristics of the heating are reproduced, as well as a coronal temperature of roughly one million K. Because of the ab initio approach, the amount of heating produced in these simulations represents a lower limit to coronal heating and the conclusion is that such heating of the corona is unavoidable.

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Obiettivi. L’ecografia con mezzo di contrasto (CEUS) può fornire informazioni sulla microvascolarizzazione della parete intestinale nella malattia di Crohn. L’infiammazione della parete intestinale non sembra essere correlata alla quantità di parete vascolarizzata (studi di pattern di vascolarizzazione, SVP) ma all’intensità del flusso di parete in un determinato periodo di tempo (studi di intensità-tempo, SIT). Scopo dello studio è valutare se gli studi SVP e/o SIT mediante CEUS siano in grado di mostrare il reale grado d’infiammazione della parete vascolare e se possano predire l’attività di malattia a 3 mesi. Materiali e metodi: 30 pazienti con malattia di Crohn venivano sottoposti a SVP e SIT mediante CEUS e venivano rivisti dopo 3 mesi. L’eCografia era eseguita con uno strumento dedicato con un software particolare per il calcolo delle curve intensità-tempo e con l’ausilio di un mezzo di contrasto (Sonovue). L’analisi quantitativa consisteva nella misura dell’area sotto la curva (AUC) (con cut-off tra malattia attiva e inattiva di 15) e di un intensità media (IM) con un cut-off di 10. Tutti gli esami venivano registrati e analizzati in modo digitale. Risultati: A T0: CDAI era inferiore a 150 in 22 pazienti e superiore a 150 in 8 pazienti; a T3: CDAI era inferiore a 150 in 19 pazienti e superiore a 150 in 11 pazienti. A T0 sia la CEUS SPV che la SIT evidenziavano bassa specificità, accuratezza diagnostica e valore predittivo negativo; a T3 la CEUS SVP mostrava bassa sensibilità e accuratezza diagnostica rispetto alla SIT che era in grado, in tutti i casi tranne uno, di predire l’attività clinica di malattia a tre mesi. Conclusioni: in questo studio, la CEUS-SIT ha mostrato buona accuratezza diagnostica nel predire l’attività clinica di malattia nel follow-up a breve termine di pazienti con malattia di Crohn.

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Fossils of chironomid larvae (non-biting midges) preserved in lake sediments are well-established palaeotemperature indicators which, with the aid of numerical chironomid-based inference models (transfer functions), can provide quantitative estimates of past temperature change. This approach to temperature reconstruction relies on the strong relationship between air and lake surface water temperature and the distribution of individual chironomid taxa (species, species groups, genera) that has been observed in different climate regions (arctic, subarctic, temperate and tropical) in both the Northern and Southern hemisphere. A major complicating factor for the use of chironomids for palaeoclimate reconstruction which increases the uncertainty associated with chironomid-based temperature estimates is that the exact nature of the mechanism responsible for the strong relationship between temperature and chironomid assemblages in lakes remains uncertain. While a number of authors have provided state of the art overviews of fossil chironomid palaeoecology and the use of chironomids for temperature reconstruction, few have focused on examining the ecological basis for this approach. Here, we review the nature of the relationship between chironomids and temperature based on the available ecological evidence. After discussing many of the surveys describing the distribution of chironomid taxa in lake surface sediments in relation to temperature, we also examine evidence from laboratory and field studies exploring the effects of temperature on chironomid physiology, life cycles and behaviour. We show that, even though a direct influence of water temperature on chironomid development, growth and survival is well described, chironomid palaeoclimatology is presently faced with the paradoxical situation that the relationship between chironomid distribution and temperature seems strongest in relatively deep, thermally stratified lakes in temperate and subarctic regions in which the benthic chironomid fauna lives largely decoupled from the direct influence of air and surface water temperature. This finding suggests that indirect effects of temperature on physical and chemical characteristics of lakes play an important role in determining the distribution of lake-living chironomid larvae. However, we also demonstrate that no single indirect mechanism has been identified that can explain the strong relationship between chironomid distribution and temperature in all regions and datasets presently available. This observation contrasts with the previously published hypothesis that climatic effects on lake nutrient status and productivity may be largely responsible for the apparent correlation between chironomid assemblage distribution and temperature. We conclude our review by summarizing the implications of our findings for chironomid-based palaeoclimatology and by pointing towards further avenues of research necessary to improve our mechanistic understanding of the chironomid-temperature relationship.

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The quark-gluon plasma formed in heavy ion collisions contains charged chiral fermions evolving in an external magnetic field. At finite density of electric charge or baryon number (resulting either from nuclear stopping or from fluctuations), the triangle anomaly induces in the plasma the Chiral Magnetic Wave (CMW). The CMW first induces a separation of the right and left chiral charges along the magnetic field; the resulting dipolar axial charge density in turn induces the oppositely directed vector charge currents leading to an electric quadrupole moment of the quark-gluon plasma. Boosted by the strong collective flow, the electric quadrupole moment translates into the charge dependence of the elliptic flow coefficients, so that $v_2(\pi^+) < v_2(\pi^-)$ (at positive net charge). Using the latest quantitative simulations of the produced magnetic field and solving the CMW equation, we make further quantitative estimates of the produced $v_2$ splitting and its centrality dependence. We compare the results with the available experimental data.

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Major histocompatibility complex (MHC) antigen-presenting genes are the most variable loci in vertebrate genomes. Host-parasite co-evolution is assumed to maintain the excessive polymorphism in the MHC loci. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying the striking diversity in the MHC remain contentious. The extent to which recombination contributes to the diversity at MHC loci in natural populations is still controversial, and there have been only few comparative studies that make quantitative estimates of recombination rates. In this study, we performed a comparative analysis for 15 different ungulates species to estimate the population recombination rate, and to quantify levels of selection. As expected for all species, we observed signatures of strong positive selection, and identified individual residues experiencing selection that were congruent with those constituting the peptide-binding region of the human DRB gene. However, in addition for each species, we also observed recombination rates that were significantly different from zero on the basis of likelihood-permutation tests, and in other non-quantitative analyses. Patterns of synonymous and non-synonymous sequence diversity were consistent with differing demographic histories between species, but recent simulation studies by other authors suggest inference of selection and recombination is likely to be robust to such deviations from standard models. If high rates of recombination are common in MHC genes of other taxa, re-evaluation of many inference-based phylogenetic analyses of MHC loci, such as estimates of the divergence time of alleles and trans-specific polymorphism, may be required.

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Dynamic contrast agent-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE MRI) data, when analyzed with the appropriate pharmacokinetic models, have been shown to provide quantitative estimates of microvascular parameters important in characterizing the angiogenic activity of malignant tissue. These parameters consist of the whole blood volume per unit volume of tissue, v b, transport constant from the plasma to the extravascular, extracellular space (EES), k1 and the transport constant from the EES to the plasma, k2. Parameters vb and k1 are expected to correlate with microvascular density (MVD) and vascular permeability, respectively, which have been suggested to serve as surrogate markers for angiogenesis. In addition to being a marker for angiogenesis, vascular permeability is also useful in estimating tumor penetration potential of chemotherapeutic agents. ^ Histological measurements of the intratumoral microvascular environment are limited by their invasiveness and susceptibility to sampling errors. Also, MVD and vascular permeability, while useful for characterizing tumors at a single time point, have shown less utility in longitudinal studies, particularly when used to monitor the efficacy of antiangiogenic and traditional chemotherapeutic agents. These limitations led to a search for a non-invasive means of characterizing the microvascular environment of an entire tumor. ^ The overall goal of this project was to determine the utility of DCE MRI for monitoring the effect of antiangiogenic agents. Further applications of a validated DCE MRI technique include in vivo measurements of tumor microvascular characteristics to aid in determining prognosis at presentation and in estimating drug penetration. DCE MRI data were generated using single- and dual-tracer pharmacokinetic models with different molecular-weight contrast agents. The resulting pharmacokinetic parameters were compared to immunohistochemical measurements. The model and contrast agent combination yielding the best correlation between the pharmacokinetic parameters and histological measures was further evaluated in a longitudinal study to evaluate the efficacy of DCE MRI in monitoring the intratumoral microvascular environment following antiangiogenic treatment. ^

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Observations of carbonate preservation in marine sediments have long been used to infer changes in ocean circulation or biogenic production. When combined with measures of organic carbon rain and calcite accumulation rates, quantitative estimates of changes in preservation can reveal variation in biogenic fluxes, the org. C to calcite flux ratio and saturation state of bottom waters. Here we develop quantitative dissolution proxies for mid to higher latitudes based on foraminiferal test fragmentation. Examining surface sediments, we find that fragmentation in G. bulloides and G. truncatulinoides is linear with increasing seabed dissolution rate and can be used to quantify changes in carbonate preservation. G. truncatulinoides shows a constant relationship of fragmentation to dissolution. However, we observe that, although linear to dissolution rate, the fragmentation in G. bulloides depends on which morphotype is present. Other species, such as G. inflata, have complex responses to increasing dissolution and are less direct preservation indicators.

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During Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 159, four sites (Sites 959-962) were drilled along a depth transect on the Côte d'Ivoire/Ghana Transform Margin. In this study, the Pliocene-Pleistocene history of carbonate and organic carbon accumulation at Hole 959C is reconstructed for the eastern equatorial Atlantic off the Ivory Coast/Ghana based on bulk carbonate, sand fraction, organic carbon, and other organic geochemical records (d13Corg, marine organic matter percentages derived from organic petrology, hydrogen index, C/N). Pliocene-Pleistocene sedimentation off the Ivory Coast/Ghana was strongly affected by low mean sedimentation rates, which are attributed to persistently enhanced bottom-water velocities related to the steep topography of the transform margin. Sand fraction and bulk carbonate records reveal typical glacial/interglacial cycles, preserved, however, with low time resolution. Intermediate carbonate accumulation rates observed throughout the Pliocene-Pleistocene suggest intense winnowing and sediment redistribution superimposed by terrigenous dilution. 'Atlantic-type' sand and carbonate cycles, consistent with records from pelagic areas of the eastern equatorial Atlantic, are encountered at Hole 959C prior to about 0.9 Ma. Total organic carbon (TOC) records are frequently inversely correlated to carbonate contents, indicating mainly productivity-driven carbonate dissolution related to changes in paleoproductivity. During Stages 22-24, 20, 16, 12, 8, and 4, sand and carbonate records reveal a 'Pacific-type' pattern, showing elevated contents during glacials commonly in conjunction with enhanced TOC records. Formation of 'Pacific-type' patterns off the Ivory Coast/Ghana is attributed to drastically increased bottom-water intensities along the transform margin in accordance with results reported from the Walvis Ridge area. Short-term glacial/interglacial changes in paleoproductivity off the Ivory Coast/Ghana are to some extend recognizable during glacials prior to 1.7 Ma and interglacial Stages 21, 19, 13, 9, and 1. Enhanced coastal upwelling during interglacials is attributed to local paleoclimatic and oceanographic conditions off the Ivory Coast/Ghana. Quantitative estimates of marine organic carbon based on organic petrologic and d13Corg records reveal an offset in concentration ranging from 15% to 60%. Highest variabilities of both records are recorded since ~0.9 Ma. Discrepancies between the isotopic and microscopic records are attributed to an admixture of C4 plant debris approaching the eastern equatorial Atlantic via atmospheric dust. Terrestrial organic material likely originated from the grass-savannah-covered Sahel zone in central Africa. Estimated C4 plant concentrations and accumulation rates range from 10% to 37% and from almost zero to 0.006 g/cm**2/k.y., respectively. The strongest eolian supply to the northern Gulf of Guinea is indicated between 1.9 and 1.68 Ma and during glacial isotopic Stages 22-24, 20, 14, and 12. The presence of grass-type plant debris is further supported by organic petrologic studies, which reveal well-preserved cell tissues of vascular plants or tube-shaped, elongated terrestrial macerals showing different levels of oxidation.

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During Leg 119 of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP), Quaternary sediments of the Southern Ocean were examined for the presence and abundance of Chaetoceros resting spores. Six drill sites were occupied along the Kerguelen Plateau. An additional five drill sites were clustered within Prydz Bay, Antarctica. Chaetoceros resting spores were present at all sites examined. These resting spore assemblages were comprised primarily of Chaetoceros neglectus and several unidentified Chaetoceros species. Resting spore assemblages accounted for approximately 20% of the total diatom assemblage (ranging from 0% to 91.4% of any given sample). Quantitative estimates of resting spores demonstrated considerable downcore abundance fluctuations, ranging from 0 to 1.82*10*9 valves/g sediment. The highest spore production rates (3.75*10**12 spores/cm/yr) were found on the northern Kerguelen Plateau (Sample 119-736B-1H-3,35-37 cm). A lack of adequate chronological control at all sites prevented proper between-core comparisons. Mean resting spore abundance, however, appeared highest within the sediments of Prydz Bay and across the northern Kerguelen Plateau. Deep-water stations of the southern Kerguelen Plateau demonstrated the lower spore abundances and a reduction in the percentage contribution of spore to the total diatom assemblage.

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The hydrogen isotopic composition of plant leaf-wax n-alkanes (dDwax) is a novel proxy for estimating dD of past precipitation (dDp). However, vegetation life-form and relative humidity exert secondary effects on dDwax, preventing quantitative estimates of past dDp. Here, we present an approach for removing the effect of vegetation-type and relative humidity from dDwax and thus for directly estimating past dDp. We test this approach on modern day (late Holocene; 0-3 ka) sediments from a transect of 9 marine cores spanning 21°N-23°S off the western coast of Africa. We estimate vegetation type (C3 tree versus C4 grass) using d13C of leaf-wax n-alkanes and correct dDwax for vegetation-type with previously-derived apparent fractionation factors for each vegetation type. Late Holocene vegetation-corrected dDwax (dDvc) displays a good fit with modern-day dDp, suggesting that the effects of vegetation type and relative humidity have both been removed and thus that dDvc is a good estimate of dDp. We find that the magnitude of the effect of C3 tree - C4 grass changes on dDwax is small compared to dDp changes. We go on to estimate dDvc for the mid-Holocene (6-8 ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19-23 ka) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16-18.5 ka). In terms of past hydrological changes, our leaf-wax based estimates of dDp mostly reflect changes in wet season intensity, which is complementary to estimates of wet season length based on leaf-wax d13C.

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Palynological, geochemical, and physical records were used to document Holocene paleoceanographic changes in marine sediment core from Dease Strait in the western part of the main axis of the Northwest Passage (core 2005-804-006 PC latitude 68°59.552'N, longitude 106°34.413'W). Quantitative estimates of past sea surface conditions were inferred from the modern analog technique applied to dinoflagellate cyst assemblages. The chronology of core 2005-804-006 PC is based on a combined use of the paleomagnetic secular variation records and the CALS7K.2 time-varying spherical harmonic model of the geomagnetic field. The age-depth model indicates that the core spans the last ~7700 cal years B.P., with a sedimentation rate of 61 cm/ka. The reconstructed sea surface parameters were compared with those from Barrow Strait and Lancaster Sound (cores 2005-804-004 PC and 2004-804-009 PC, respectively), which allowed us to draw a millennial-scale Holocene sea ice history along the main axis of the Northwest Passage (MANWP). Overall, our data are in good agreement with previous studies based on bowhead whale remains. However, dinoflagellate sea surface based reconstructions suggest several new features. The presence of dinoflagellate cysts in the three cores for most of the Holocene indicates that the MANWP was partially ice-free over the last 10,000 years. This suggests that the recent warming observed in the MANWP could be part of the natural climate variability at the millennial time scale, whereas anthropogenic forcing could have accelerated the warming over the past decades. We associate Holocene climate variability in the MANWP with a large-scale atmospheric pattern, such as the Arctic Oscillation, which may have operated since the early Holocene. In addition to a large-scale pattern, more local conditions such as coastal current, tidal effects, or ice cap proximity may have played a role on the regional sea ice cover. These findings highlight the need to further develop regional investigations in the Arctic to provide realistic boundary conditions for climatic simulations.