Changes of mortality and causes of death from 1970 to 2005 and decomposition analysis in Shandong province [山东省1970-2005年人群死亡率极死因变化与差别分解分析]

Objective To describe the trend of overall mortality and major causes of death in Shandong population from 1970 to 2005,and to quantitatively estimate the influential factors. Methods Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using indicators such as mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates by comparing three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. Results The total mortality had had a slight change since 1970s,but had increased since 1990s.However,both the mortality rates of age-adjusted and age-specific decreased significantly. The mortality of Group Ⅰ diseases including infectious diseases as well maternal and perinatal diseases decreased drastically. By contrast, the mortality of non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs)including cardiovascular diseases(CVDs),cancer and injuries increased. The sustentation of recent overall mortality was caused by the interaction of demographic and non-demographic factors which worked oppositely. Non-demographic factors were responsible for the decrease of Group Ⅰ disease and the increase of injuries. With respect to the increase of NCDs as a whole. Demographic factors might take the full responsibility and the non-demographic factors were the opposite force to reduce the mortality. Nevertheless, for the increase of some leading NCD diseases as CVDs and cancer, the increase was mainly due to non-demographic rather than demographic factors. Conclusion Through the interaction of the aggravation of ageing population and the enhancement of non-demographic effect, the overall mortality in Shandong would maintain a balance or slightly rise in the coming years. Group Ⅰ diseases in Shandong had been effectively under control. Strategies focusing on disease control and prevention should be transferred to chronic diseases, especially leading NCDs, such as CVDs and cancer.

Epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 - 2007 in Shandong province, China [山东省乙型肝炎、肝硬化及肝癌流行趋势分析]

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to evaluate the effectiveness of hepatitis B prevention and control measures, so as to provide evidence for policy-making. Methods Based on the routine incidence data of hepatitis B, mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer and demographic data, the incidence rate, mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate were calculated and analyzed with simple linear regression model. Results A total of 437094 cases of hepatitis B were reported during 1990 - 2007 with an average yearly morbidity of 27.32 per 100 000 persons and a decreased trend for the 0-9 years old children. At the same time, the adjusted mortality rate for hepatitis B and liver cirrhosis showed a decreased trend and the combined mortality rate decreased from 17.55 /100 000 in 1990 to 4.01 /100 000 in 2007. The mortality of liver cancer was stable during this time (P = 0. 9998). Conclusion Immunization of hepatitis B vaccine may have lowered the incidence of hepatitis B in the target population and the overall mortality rates of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. Abstract in Chinese 目的 了解山东省1990～2007年乙肝、肝硬化和肝癌的流行状况及变化趋势,初步评价乙肝预防控制措施的效果,为今后防治决策制定提供参考. 方法 根据报告的乙肝发病资料和乙肝、肝硬化、肝癌死亡资料以及历年人口资料,利用发病率、死亡率、年龄别死亡率等指标对上述3种疾病进行流行趋势的分析,并建立简单线性回归模型进行统计分析. 结果 1990～2007年山东省共报告乙肝病例437 094例,年均总发病率为27.32/10万,并呈上升趋势,而0～9岁年龄组的发病率呈显著下降趋势.乙肝和肝硬化调整死亡率下降趋势明显,两者合并死亡率由1990年的17.55/10万下降到2007年的4.01/10万.肝癌调整死亡率基本稳定(P=0.999 8). 结论 做好乙肝疫苗的免疫接种不仅可降低目标人群乙肝的发病,并将最终降低与此相关的肝硬化和肝癌的死亡率.

Epidemiological Trend of Hepatitis B in Shandong Province of China, 1990 - 2007 []

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B from 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to find the high risk population so as to explore the further control strategy. Methods Based on the routine reporting incidence data of hepatitis B and demographic data of Shandong province, the incidence rates and sex - specific, age - specific incidence rates of hepatitis B were calculated and statistically analyzed in the simple linear regression model. Results The total number of hepatitis B was 437 094, the annual average morbidity was 27132 per 100 000 population during 1990 to 2007. The incidence of men (38142 per 100 000) was higher than that for women (15183 per 100 000) 1The annual incidence rate of hepatitis B indicated an increasing trend for the whole population, while a decreased trend for the 0～9 year - old children p resented in the past 18 years. It showed that the average age of onset moved to the older. Conclusion Young adult men are the high-risk groups for the onset of hepatitis B. For the prevention of hepatitis B, the immunization of hepatitis B vaccine should be enhanced for other groups, especially for the high - risk population on the basis of imp roving the immunization coverage rate for newborns.

Estimation of the burden of malignant neoplasms by DALYs in Shandong Province [应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担的研究]

Objective: To evaluate the burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong Province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main data for this study were from Shandong third cause of death sampling survey in 2006 and Shandong 2007 cancer prevalence survey. YLLs, YLDs, DALYs and disability weights of each type of cancers were calculated according to the global burdens of disease （GBD） methodology. The direct method was used to estimate YLDs. The uncertainty analysis was conducted following the methodology in GBD study. Results: The total cancers burden in Shandong population was 1 383 thousands DALYs. Lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer and esophagus cancer were the top four cancers with the highest health burden. The burden of the four major cancers together accounted for 71.45% of the total burden of all cancers. 95% of the total burden of malignant tumors was caused by premature death, and only 5.26% of the total cancer burden was due to disability. The uncertainty of total burden estimate was around±11%， the uncertainty of YLDs was bigger than that of YLLs. Conclusion: The health burden due to cancers in Shandong population is heavier than that of the national average level. Liver cancer, lung cancer and stomach cancer should be the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong.

Timing and source constraints on the relationship between mafic and felsic intrusions in the Emeiashan large igneous province

Several I- and A-type granite, syenite plutons and spatially associated, giant Fe–Ti–V deposit-bearing mafic ultramafic layered intrusions occur in the Pan–Xi(Panzhihua–Xichang) area within the inner zone of the Emeishan large igneous province (ELIP). These complexes are interpreted to be related to the Emeishan mantle plume. We present LA-ICP-MS and SIMS zircon U–Pb ages and Hf–Nd isotopic compositions for the gabbros, syenites and granites from these complexes. The dating shows that the age of the felsic intrusive magmatism (256.2 ± 3.0–259.8 ± 1.6 Ma) is indistinguishable from that of the mafic intrusive magmatism (255.4 ± 3.1–259.5 ± 2.7 Ma) and represents the final phase of a continuous magmatic episode that lasted no more than 10 Myr. The upper gabbros in the mafic–ultramafic intrusions are generally more isotopically enriched (lower eNd and eHf) than the middle and lower gabbros, suggesting that the upper gabbros have experienced a higher level of crustal contamination than the lower gabbros. The significantly positive eHf(t) values of the A-type granites and syenites (+4.9 to +10.8) are higher than those of the upper gabbros of the associated mafic intrusion, which shows that they cannot be derived by fractional crystallization of these bodies. They are however identical to those of the mafic enclaves (+7.0 to +11.4) and middle and lower gabbros, implying that they are cogenetic. We suggest that they were generated by fractionation of large-volume, plume-related basaltic magmas that ponded deep in the crust. The deep-seated magma chamber erupted in two stages: the first near a density minimum in the basaltic fractionation trend and the second during the final stage of fractionation when the magma was a low density Fe-poor, Si-rich felsic magma. The basaltic magmas emplaced in the shallowlevel magma chambers differentiated to form mafic–ultramafic layered intrusions accompanied by a small amount of crustal assimilation through roof melting. Evolved A-type granites (synenites and syenodiorites) were produced dominantly by crystallization in the deep crustal magma chamber. In contrast, the I-type granites have negative eNd(t) [-6.3 to -7.5] and eHf(t) [-1.3 to -6.7] values, with the Nd model ages (T Nd DM2) of 1.63-1.67 Ga and Hf model ages (T Hf DM2) of 1.56-1.58 Ga, suggesting that they were mainly derived from partial melting of Mesoproterozoic crust. In combination with previous studies, this study also shows that plume activity not only gave rise to reworking of ancient crust, but also significant growth of juvenile crust in the center of the ELIP.

Exploring postnatal depression in Thua Thien Hue Province, Central Vietnam

Introduction Postnatal depression (PND) is an important public health issue due to its impact on maternal wellbeing, infant development, and family cohesion. The estimated prevalence of PND during the first 12 months post-partum ranges between10-20% worldwide. Whilst PND used to be considered a syndrome only occurring in western countries, there is now evidence that it occurs throughout the world, and often at higher rates in low and middleincome countries. To date, there has been little research into PND in South East Asia and only two community-based surveys in Vietnam, one in Ho Chi Minh City in 1999 and one in Hanoi and Ha Nam in 2009. This study will investigate health worker attitudes about risk and protective factors for PND among women in Thua Thien Hue province in central Vietnam. Methodology In 2009, 23 health professionals participated in qualitative exploratory research of postnatal depression in Hue. This included two focus groups with 12 health professionals who completed a concept mapping process, and in-depth interviews with another 11 health professionals. Results Many factors relating to postnatal depression were identified including socio-economic status, son preference, mother’s health, infant health, social support from family and the community, and health promoting behaviours. In-depth interviews highlighted community knowledge and attitudes surrounding PND such as traditional confinement practices and fear of experiencing stigma. Conclusion The findings of this research will be used to plan a substantial community-based quantitative survey in order to establish prevalence of PND and surrounding social determinants in central Vietnam.

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Impact of climate variability on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Yunnan Province, China

BACKGROUND Malaria remains a public health problem in the remote and poor area of Yunnan Province, China. Yunnan faces an increasing risk of imported malaria infections from Mekong river neighboring countries. This study aimed to identify the high risk area of malaria transmission in Yunnan Province, and to estimate the effects of climatic variability on the transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in the identified area. METHODS We identified spatial clusters of malaria cases using spatial cluster analysis at a county level in Yunnan Province, 2005-2010, and estimated the weekly effects of climatic factors on P. vivax and P. falciparum based on a dataset of daily malaria cases and climatic variables. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the impact of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall up to 10-week lags on both types of malaria parasite after adjusting for seasonal and long-term effects. RESULTS The primary cluster area was identified along the China-Myanmar border in western Yunnan. A 1°C increase in minimum temperature was associated with a lag 4 to 9 weeks relative risk (RR), with the highest effect at lag 7 weeks for P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.05) and 6 weeks for P. falciparum (RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04, 1.11); a 10-mm increment in rainfall was associated with RRs of lags 2-4 weeks and 9-10 weeks, with the highest effect at 3 weeks for both P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.04) and P. falciparum (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.06); and the RRs with a 10% rise in relative humidity were significant from lag 3 to 8 weeks with the highest RR of 1.24 (95% CI, 1.10, 1.41) for P. vivax at 5-week lag. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that the China-Myanmar border is a high risk area for malaria transmission. Climatic factors appeared to be among major determinants of malaria transmission in this area. The estimated lag effects for the association between temperature and malaria are consistent with the life cycles of both mosquito vector and malaria parasite. These findings will be useful for malaria surveillance-response systems in the Mekong river region.

Spatial Patterns of Malaria Reported Deaths in Yunnan Province, China

Malaria has been a heavy social and health burden in the remote and poor areas in southern China. Analyses of malaria epidemic patterns can uncover important features of malaria transmission. This study identified spatial clusters, seasonal patterns, and geographic variations of malaria deaths at a county level in Yunnan, China, during 1991–2010. A discrete Poisson model was used to identify purely spatial clusters of malaria deaths. Logistic regression analysis was performed to detect changes in geographic patterns. The results show that malaria mortality had declined in Yunnan over the study period and the most likely spatial clusters (relative risk [RR] = 23.03–32.06, P < 0.001) of malaria deaths were identified in western Yunnan along the China–Myanmar border. The highest risk of malaria deaths occurred in autumn (RR = 58.91, P < 0.001) and summer (RR = 31.91, P < 0.001). The results suggested that the geographic distribution of malaria deaths was significantly changed with longitude, which indicated there was decreased mortality of malaria in eastern areas over the last two decades, although there was no significant change in latitude during the same period. Public health interventions should target populations in western Yunnan along border areas, especially focusing on floating populations crossing international borders.

Volcanic architecture and chemostratigraphy within the Kalkarindji Continental Flood Basalt Province, Northern Territory : implications for eruption style from multiple fissure eruptions

This thesis was the first to define individual lava flow chemical variation and a detailed definition of the Kalkarindji Continental Flood Basalt Province, a lesser known province of the Phanerozoic eon. This thesis conducted an intensive field study that yielded numerous samples for petrography and chemical analyses as well as the generation of a detailed map of a portion of the Kalkarindji province.

Mobile phones and media use in Madang province of Papua New Guinea

A mobile phone service was not available to the majority of the population in Papua New Guinea (PNG) until mid-2007. Since that time, commercial competition has been introduced into the mobile telecommunication sector and coverage has spread across many parts of the country. While the focus of this article is on mobile phones, the research has also explored media access and media usage more generally. Analysis in this article adopts the 'circuit of culture' model developed by du Gay et al. (1997). The article is based on data from a survey conducted in 2009 in eight rural villages in Madang Province. The research occurred during the primary stages of mobile phone adoption in these places, providing a rare opportunity to gauge early adoption behaviour and attitudes.

Disaster resilience in tertiary hospitals : a cross-sectional survey in Shandong Province, China

Background: Hospital disaster resilience can be defined as a hospital’s ability to resist, absorb, and respond to the shock of disasters while maintaining critical functions, and then to recover to its original state or adapt to a new one. This study aims to explore the status of resilience among tertiary hospitals in Shandong Province, China. Methods: A stratified random sample (n = 50) was derived from tertiary A, tertiary B, and tertiary C hospitals in Shandong Province, and was surveyed by questionnaire. Data on hospital characteristics and 8 key domains of hospital resilience were collected and analysed. Variables were binary, and analysed using descriptive statistics such as frequencies. Results: A response rate of 82% (n = 41) was attained. Factor analysis identified four key factors from eight domains which appear to reflect the overall level of disaster resilience. These were hospital safety, disaster management mechanisms, disaster resources and disaster medical care capability. The survey demonstrated that in regard to hospital safety, 93% had syndromic surveillance systems for infectious diseases and 68% had evaluated their safety standards. In regard to disaster management mechanisms, all had general plans, while only 20% had specific plans for individual hazards. 49% had a public communication protocol and 43.9% attended the local coordination meetings. In regard to disaster resources, 75.6% and 87.5% stockpiled emergency drugs and materials respectively, while less than a third (30%) had a signed Memorandum of Understanding with other hospitals to share these resources. Finally in regard to medical care, 66% could dispatch an on-site medical rescue team, but only 5% had a ‘portable hospital’ function and 36.6% and 12% of the hospitals could surge their beds and staff capacity respectively. The average beds surge capacity within 1 day was 13%. Conclusions: This study validated the broad utility of a framework for understanding and measuring the level of hospital resilience. The survey demonstrated considerable variability in disaster resilience arrangements of tertiary hospitals in Shandong province, and the difference between tertiary A hospitals and tertiary B hospitals was also identified in essential areas.

Evaluation of public hospital performance in Khanh Hoa Province : Vietnam in connection with patient and staff satisfaction surveys

This research aimed to develop a framework for performance evaluation of public hospitals in Vietnam that is culturally, socially, and politically appropriate. The research included both qualitative and quantitative methods and identified and validated novel instruments to measure patient satisfaction and job satisfaction of hospital staff and to determine a set of hospital indicators that reflect the quality of hospital performance. New models for understanding the determinants of patient and staff satisfaction were developed along with a new performance indicator framework for hospital performance. These instruments will now be applied to the evaluation of hospital services in Khanh Hoa Province, permitting longer term evaluation of their effectiveness in changing system wide performance and satisfaction.

A large proportion of asymptomatic Plasmodium infections with low and sub-microscopic parasite densities in the low transmission setting of Temotu Province, Solomon Islands : challenges for malaria diagnostics in an elimination setting

Background Many countries are scaling up malaria interventions towards elimination. This transition changes demands on malaria diagnostics from diagnosing ill patients to detecting parasites in all carriers including asymptomatic infections and infections with low parasite densities. Detection methods suitable to local malaria epidemiology must be selected prior to transitioning a malaria control programme to elimination. A baseline malaria survey conducted in Temotu Province, Solomon Islands in late 2008, as the first step in a provincial malaria elimination programme, provided malaria epidemiology data and an opportunity to assess how well different diagnostic methods performed in this setting. Methods During the survey, 9,491 blood samples were collected and examined by microscopy for Plasmodium species and density, with a subset also examined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). The performances of these diagnostic methods were compared. Results A total of 256 samples were positive by microscopy, giving a point prevalence of 2.7%. The species distribution was 17.5% Plasmodium falciparum and 82.4% Plasmodium vivax. In this low transmission setting, only 17.8% of the P. falciparum and 2.9% of P. vivax infected subjects were febrile (≥38°C) at the time of the survey. A significant proportion of infections detected by microscopy, 40% and 65.6% for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively, had parasite density below 100/μL. There was an age correlation for the proportion of parasite density below 100/μL for P. vivax infections, but not for P. falciparum infections. PCR detected substantially more infections than microscopy (point prevalence of 8.71%), indicating a large number of subjects had sub-microscopic parasitemia. The concordance between PCR and microscopy in detecting single species was greater for P. vivax (135/162) compared to P. falciparum (36/118). The malaria RDT detected the 12 microscopy and PCR positive P. falciparum, but failed to detect 12/13 microscopy and PCR positive P. vivax infections. Conclusion Asymptomatic malaria infections and infections with low and sub-microscopic parasite densities are highly prevalent in Temotu province where malaria transmission is low. This presents a challenge for elimination since the large proportion of the parasite reservoir will not be detected by standard active and passive case detection. Therefore effective mass screening and treatment campaigns will most likely need more sensitive assays such as a field deployable molecular based assay.

Developing an evaluation framework for hospital disaster resilience : tertiary hospitals of Shandong Province, China

This thesis provided a definition and conceptual framework for hospital disaster resilience; it used a mixed-method, including an empirical study in tertiary hospitals of Shandong Province in China, to devise an assessment instrument for measuring hospital resilience. The instrument is the first of its type and will allow hospitals to measure their resilience levels. The concept of disaster resilience has gained prominence in the light of the increased impact of various disasters. The notion of resilience encompasses the qualities that enable the organisation or community to resist, respond to, and recover from the impact of disasters. Hospital resilience is essential as it provides 'lifeline' services which minimize disaster impact. This thesis has provided a framework and instrument to evaluate the level of hospital resilience. Such an instrument could be used to better understand hospital resilience, and also as a decision-support tool for its promoting strategies and policies.