Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

Survival of adult AIDS patients in a reference hospital of a metropolitan area in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of sociodemographic, clinical, and epidemiological factors in AIDS patients survival in a reference hospital. METHODS: A sample of 502 adult AIDS patients out of 1,494 AIDS cases registered in a hospital in Fortaleza, Brazil, was investigated between 1986 and 1998. Sixteen cases were excluded due to death at the moment of the AIDS diagnosis and 486 were analyzed in the study. Socioeconomic and clinical epidemiological were the variables studied. Statistical analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Three hundred and sixty two out of the 486 patients studied took at least one antiretroviral drug and their survival was ten times longer than those who did not take any drug (746 and 79 days, respectively, p <0.001). Patients who took two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus protease inhibitor were found to have higher survival rates (p <0.001). The risk of dying in the first year was significantly lower for patients who took NRTI and a protease inhibitor compared to those who took only NRTI. In addition, this risk was much lower from the second year on (0.10; 95%CI: 0.42-0.23). The risk of dying in the first year was significantly higher for less educated patients (15.58; 95%CI: 6.64-36.58) and those who had two or more systemic diseases (3.03; 95%CI: 1.74-5.25). After the first year post-diagnosis, there was no risk difference for these factors. CONCLUSIONS: Higher education revealed to exert a significant influence in the first-year survival. Antiretroviral drugs had a greater impact in the survival from the second year on. A more aggressive antiretroviral therapy started earlier could benefit those patients.

Neonatal mortality in intensive care units of Central Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential prognostic factors for neonatal mortality among newborns referred to intensive care units. METHODS: A live-birth cohort study was carried out in Goiânia, Central Brazil, from November 1999 to October 2000. Linked birth and infant death certificates were used to ascertain the cohort of live born infants. An additional active surveillance system of neonatal-based mortality was implemented. Exposure variables were collected from birth and death certificates. The outcome was survivors (n=713) and deaths (n=162) in all intensive care units in the study period. Cox's proportional hazards model was applied and a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to compare the performance of statistically significant variables in the multivariable model. Adjusted mortality rates by birth weight and 5-min Apgar score were calculated for each intensive care unit. RESULTS: Low birth weight and 5-min Apgar score remained independently associated to death. Birth weight equal to 2,500g had 0.71 accuracy (95% CI: 0.65-0.77) for predicting neonatal death (sensitivity =72.2%). A wide variation in the mortality rates was found among intensive care units (9.5-48.1%) and two of them remained with significant high mortality rates even after adjusting for birth weight and 5-min Apgar score. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates birth weight as a sensitive screening variable in surveillance programs for neonatal death and also to target intensive care units with high mortality rates for implementing preventive actions and interventions during the delivery period.

Water-contact patterns and risk factors for Schistosoma mansoni infection in a rural village of Northeast Brazil

Schistosomiasis mansoni in the Serrano village, municipality of Cururupu, state of Maranhão, Brazil, is a widely spread disease. The PECE (Program for the Control of Schistosomiasis), undertaken since 1979 has reduced the prevalence of S. mansoni infection and the hepatosplenic form of the disease. Nevertheless piped water is available in 84% of the households, prevalence remains above 20%. In order to identify other risk factors responsible for the persistence of high prevalence levels, a cross-sectional survey was carried out in a systematic sample of 294 people of varying ages. Socioeconomic, environmental and demographic variables, and water contact patterns were investigated. Fecal samples were collected and analyzed by the Kato-Katz technique. Prevalence of S. mansoni infection was 24.1%, higher among males (35.5%) and between 10-19 years of age (36.6%). The risk factors identified in the univariable analysis were water contacts for vegetable extraction (Risk Ratio - RR = 2.92), crossing streams (RR = 2.55), bathing (RR = 2.35), fishing (RR = 2.19), hunting (RR = 2.17), cattle breeding (RR = 2.04), manioc culture (RR = 1.90) and leisure (RR = 1.56). After controlling for confounding variables by proportional hazards model the risks remained higher for males, vegetable extraction, bathing in rivers and water contact in rivers or in periodically inundated parts of riverine woodland (swamplands)

Prognostic factors in locally advanced colon cancer treated by extended resection

The impact of clinical, pathologic, and surgical variables on the postoperative morbidity, mortality, and survival of patients undergoing extended resections of colon carcinoma were evaluated. METHODS: The medical records of 95 patients who underwent extended resections for colon carcinoma between 1953 and 1996 were reviewed. In all cases, in addition to colectomy, 1 or more organs and/or structures were resected en bloc due to a macroscopically based suspicion of tumor invasion. The clinical, pathologic, and surgical parameters were analyzed. Overall survival rates were analyzed according to the method of Kaplan and Meier. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Eighty-six patients were treated by curative surgeries and the remaining by palliative resections. Invasion of the organs and/or adjacent structures and regional lymph nodes was found microscopically in 48 and 31 patients, respectively. The median follow-up without postoperative mortality was 47.7 months. The 5-year overall survival rates was 52.6%. The 5-year overall survival rates for patients undergoing curative and palliative surgeries was 58.3% and 0%, respectively. The mean survival time in the palliative surgery group was 3.1 months. Multivariate analysis showed that Karnofsky performance status was strongly related to the risk of postoperative complications (P = .01), and postoperative deaths were associated with the type of surgery and Karnofsky performance status at the time of admission (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Some patients with locally advanced colon adenocarcinomas undergoing extended resections have a 5-year overall survival rates of 58.3%. Patients could benefit from palliative-intent procedures, but these measures should cautiously be indicated and avoided in patients with low Karnofsky performance status due to high rates of postoperative mortality and poor survival.

Failure rates modelling for heterogenous populations

Mixture of distributions, decreasing failure rate, increasing failure rate, proportional hazards model, accelerated life model, asymptotic behavior of mixture failure rate

Financial Distress in Chinese Industry: Microeconomic, Macroeconomic and Institutional Infuences

We study the impact of both microeconomic factors and the macroeconomy on the financial distress of Chinese listed companies over a period of massive economic transition, 1995 to 2006. Based on an economic model of financial distress under the institutional setting of state protection against exit, and using our own firm-level measure of distress, we find important impacts of firm characteristics, macroeconomic instability and institutional factors on the hazard rate of financial distress. The results are robust to unobserved heterogeneity at the firm level, as well as those shared by firms in similar macroeconomic founding conditions. Comparison with related studies for other economies highlights important policy implications.

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria

Tenofovir use is associated with a reduction in calculated glomerular filtration rates in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: A growing number of case reports have described tenofovir (TDF)-related proximal renal tubulopathy and impaired calculated glomerular filtration rates (cGFR). We assessed TDF-associated changes in cGFR in a large observational HIV cohort. METHODS: We compared treatment-naive patients or patients with treatment interruptions > or = 12 months starting either a TDF-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) (n = 363) or a TDF-sparing regime (n = 715). The predefined primary endpoint was the time to a 10 ml/min reduction in cGFR, based on the Cockcroft-Gault equation, confirmed by a follow-up measurement at least 1 month later. In sensitivity analyses, secondary endpoints including calculations based on the modified diet in renal disease (MDRD) formula were considered. Endpoints were modelled using pre-specified covariates in a multiple Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Two-year event-free probabilities were 0.65 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.72) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.83) for patients starting TDF-containing or TDF-sparing cART, respectively. In the multiple Cox model, diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.34 [95% CI 1.24-4.42]), higher baseline cGFR (HR = 1.03 [95% CI 1.02-1.04] by 10 ml/min), TDF use (HR = 1.84 [95% CI 1.35-2.51]) and boosted protease inhibitor use (HR = 1.71 [95% CI 1.30-2.24]) significantly increased the risk for reaching the primary endpoint. Sensitivity analyses showed high consistency. CONCLUSION: There is consistent evidence for a significant reduction in cGFR associated with TDF use in HIV-infected patients. Our findings call for a strict monitoring of renal function in long-term TDF users with tests that distinguish between glomerular dysfunction and proximal renal tubulopathy, a known adverse effect of TDF.

Supervivencia en cáncer de mama tras 10 años de seguimiento en las provincias de Granada y Almería

Background: To describe the overall and disease-free survival at five and ten years after breast cancer diagnosis in women from a previous case-control study, and establish related prognostic factors. Methods: We followed up 202 patients diagnosed between 1996 and 1998 in three public hospitals in Granada and Almeria provinces in Spain. Survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan and Meier method, and the Cox proportional hazards model was applied to identify the most significant variables contributing to survival. Results: Mean age at diagnosis was 54.27±10.4 years. Mean follow-up for overall survival was 119.91 months (95%CI 113.65126.17); the five-year survival rate was 83.9% (95%CI: 78.13-89.66) and the ten-year rate was 71% (95%CI: 63.25-78.74). Mean followup for disease-free survival was 118.75 months (95%CI 111.86125.65); the five-year disease-free survival rate was 81% (95%CI: 74.52-87.47) and the ten-year rate was 71.3% (95%CI: 63.33-79.26). The mortality rate of the study population was 33.17%. Conclusions: Disease characteristics are similar in our population to those in other Spanish and European regions, while the overall survival is higher than the mean rate during the same period in Europe (5-yr rate of 79%) and similar to that in Spain (83%).

Randomized phase 3 trial of fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide alone or followed by Paclitaxel for early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND Taxanes are among the most active drugs for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer, and, as a consequence, they have also been studied in the adjuvant setting. METHODS After breast cancer surgery, women with lymph node-positive disease were randomly assigned to treatment with fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide (FEC) or with FEC followed by weekly paclitaxel (FEC-P). The primary endpoint of study-5-year disease-free survival (DFS)-was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Secondary endpoints included overall survival and analysis of the prognostic and predictive value of clinical and molecular (hormone receptors by immunohistochemistry and HER2 by fluorescence in situ hybridization) markers. Associations and interactions were assessed with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for DFS for the following covariates: age, menopausal status, tumor size, lymph node status, type of chemotherapy, tumor size, positive lymph nodes, HER2 status, and hormone receptor status. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS Among the 1246 eligible patients, estimated rates of DFS at 5 years were 78.5% in the FEC-P arm and 72.1% in the FEC arm (difference = 6.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6% to 11.2%; P = .006). FEC-P treatment was associated with a 23% reduction in the risk of relapse compared with FEC treatment (146 relapses in the 614 patients in the FEC-P arm vs 193 relapses in the 632 patients in the FEC arm, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.95; P = .022) and a 22% reduction in the risk of death (73 and 95 deaths, respectively, HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.57 to 1.06; P = .110). Among the 928 patients for whom tumor samples were centrally analyzed, type of chemotherapy (FEC vs FEC-P) (P = .017), number of involved axillary lymph nodes (P < .001), tumor size (P = .020), hormone receptor status (P = .004), and HER2 status (P = .006) were all associated with DFS. We found no statistically significant interaction between HER2 status and paclitaxel treatment or between hormone receptor status and paclitaxel treatment. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with operable breast cancer, FEC-P treatment statistically significantly reduced the risk of relapse compared with FEC as adjuvant therapy.

Outcome following percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty performed before 1990.

The goal of this follow-up study was to assess the long-term survival of all patients having undergone a first PTCA between 1981 and 1990 and to relate the outcome to the baseline clinical and angiographic state. Although PTCA has become a widely accepted therapeutic choice for revascularization, the authors lacked information on long-term outcome. Data was collected by questionnaire, the end points being a second PTCA, MI, CABG, death or any of these events. The survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis was performed by a Cox proportional hazards model. Complete follow-up data were collected for 1,071 patients for a mean period of 7.4 years (SEM +/- 1.98 months) with a range of 0 to 14 years. Mean age was 57 years. PTCA was successful in 85% of patients. In-hospital event rates were death 1.3%, MI 4.4%, and emergency CABG 2.9%. Overall survival at 14 years was 69% (SEM +/- 9.6%) and event-free survival was 47% (SEM +/- 5.8%). MI rate was 11%, CABG 15%, and 20% of patients underwent repeat PTCA. Presence of cardiovascular risk factors, poor left ventricular ejection fraction, and prior CABG were significantly associated with poorer event-free survival. The short-term observations are consistent with results reported by the other follow-up studies. In addition, the study found a total survival rate 14 years after a first PTCA of 69% and 47% of the cohort remained event free.

In-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients undergoing early surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis.

IMPORTANCE: There are limited prospective, controlled data evaluating survival in patients receiving early surgery vs medical therapy for prosthetic valve endocarditis (PVE). OBJECTIVE: To determine the in-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients with PVE who undergo valve replacement during index hospitalization compared with patients who receive medical therapy alone, after controlling for survival and treatment selection bias. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006 in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study (ICE-PCS), a prospective, multinational, observational cohort of patients with infective endocarditis. Patients hospitalized with definite right- or left-sided PVE were included in the analysis. We evaluated the effect of treatment assignment on mortality, after adjusting for biases using a Cox proportional hazards model that included inverse probability of treatment weighting and surgery as a time-dependent covariate. The cohort was stratified by probability (propensity) for surgery, and outcomes were compared between the treatment groups within each stratum. INTERVENTIONS: Valve replacement during index hospitalization (early surgery) vs medical therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: In-hospital and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1025 patients with PVE, 490 patients (47.8%) underwent early surgery and 535 individuals (52.2%) received medical therapy alone. Compared with medical therapy, early surgery was associated with lower in-hospital mortality in the unadjusted analysis and after controlling for treatment selection bias (in-hospital mortality: hazard ratio [HR], 0.44 [95% CI, 0.38-0.52] and lower 1-year mortality: HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.49-0.67]). The lower mortality associated with surgery did not persist after adjustment for survivor bias (in-hospital mortality: HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.76-1.07] and 1-year mortality: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.89-1.23]). Subgroup analysis indicated a lower in-hospital mortality with early surgery in the highest surgical propensity quintile (21.2% vs 37.5%; P = .03). At 1-year follow-up, the reduced mortality with surgery was observed in the fourth (24.8% vs 42.9%; P = .007) and fifth (27.9% vs 50.0%; P = .007) quintiles of surgical propensity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Prosthetic valve endocarditis remains associated with a high 1-year mortality rate. After adjustment for differences in clinical characteristics and survival bias, early valve replacement was not associated with lower mortality compared with medical therapy in the overall cohort. Further studies are needed to define the effect and timing of surgery in patients with PVE who have indications for surgery.

Statin treatment is associated with improved prognosis in patients with AF-related stroke.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The most recent ACC/AHA guidelines recommend high-intensity statin therapy in ischemic stroke patients of presumably atherosclerotic origin. On the contrary, there is no specific recommendation for the use of statin in patients with non-atherosclerotic stroke, e.g. strokes related to atrial fibrillation (AF). We investigated whether statin treatment in patients with AF-related stroke is associated with improved survival and reduced risk for stroke recurrence and future cardiovascular events. METHODS: All consecutive patients registered in the Athens Stroke Registry with AF-related stroke and no history of coronary artery disease nor clinically manifest peripheral artery disease were included in the analysis and categorized in two groups depending on whether statin was prescribed at discharge. The primary outcome was overall mortality; the secondary outcomes were stroke recurrence and a composite cardiovascular endpoint comprising of recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, aortic aneurysm rupture or sudden cardiac death during the 5-year follow-up. RESULTS: Among 1602 stroke patients, 404 (25.2%) with AF-related stroke were included in the analysis, of whom 102 (25.2%) were discharged on statin. On multivariate Cox-proportional-hazards model, statin treatment was independently associated with a lower mortality (hazard-ratio (HR): 0.49, 95%CI:0.26-0.92) and lower risk for the composite cardiovascular endpoint during the median 22months follow-up (HR: 0.44, 95%CI:0.22-0.88), but not with stroke recurrence (HR: 0.47, 95%CI:0.22-1.01, p: 0.053). CONCLUSIONS: In this long-term registry of patients with AF-related stroke, statin treatment was associated with improved survival and reduced risk for future cardiovascular events.

Subjective perceptions as prognostic factors of time to fitness for work during a 4-year period after inpatient rehabilitation for orthopaedic trauma.

INTRODUCTION: Time to fitness for work (TFW) was measured as the number of days that were paid as compensation for work disability during the 4 years after discharge from the rehabilitation clinic in a population of patients hospitalised for rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma. The aim of this study was to test whether some psychological variables can be used as potential early prognostic factors of TFW. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations between predictive variables and TFW. Predictors were global health, pain at hospitalisation and pain decrease during the stay (all continuous and standardised by subtracting the mean and dividing by two standard deviations), perceived severity of the trauma and expectation of a positive evolution (both binary variables). RESULTS: Full data were available for 807 inpatients (660 men, 147 women). TFW was positively associated with better perceived health (hazard ratio [HR] 1.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-1.19), pain decrease (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.64) and expectation of a positive evolution (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.32-1.70) and negatively associated with pain at hospitalisation (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.59-0.76) and high perceived severity (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.61-0.85). DISCUSSION: The present results provide some evidence that work disability during a four-year period after rehabilitation may be predicted by prerehabilitation perceptions of general health, pain, injury severity, as well as positive expectation of evolution.