Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassifi cation. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued eff orts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

Evaluating the Portuguese National Reading Plan: teachers’ perceptions on the impact in schools

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10671-014-9171-y

Some aspects of grading Java code submissions in MOOCs

Recently, massive open online courses (MOOCs) have been offering a new online approach in the field of distance learning and online education. A typical MOOC course consists of video lectures, reading material and easily accessible tests for students. For a computer programming course, it is important to provide interactive, dynamic, online coding exercises and more complex programming assignments for learners. It is expedient for the students to receive prompt feedback on their coding submissions. Although MOOC automated programme evaluation subsystem is capable of assessing source programme files that are in learning management systems, in MOOC systems there is a grader that is responsible for evaluating students’ assignments with the result that course staff would be required to assess thousands of programmes submitted by the participants of the course without the benefit of an automatic grader. This paper presents a new concept for grading programming submissions of students and improved techniques based on the Java unit testing framework that enables automatic grading of code chunks. Some examples are also given such as the creation of unique exercises by dynamically generating the parameters of the assignment in a MOOC programming course combined with the kind of coding style recognition to teach coding standards.

Self-awareness and psychosocial functioning following acquired brain injury: An evaluation of a group support programme

This study investigated a group support programme designed to improve self-awareness deficits and psychosocial functioning in a group of chronic patients (N = 21) with acquired brain injury (ABI). The participants were on average 8.6 years (range: 1-36 years) post-injury and were seen at the Brain Injury Association of Queensland, Australia. The assessment of participants involved two standardised measures of intellectual self-awareness with collateral reports from relatives. The present study introduced a new measure called the Self-Regulation Skills Interview (SRSI) which assessed higher levels of self awareness and self-regulation skills. Psychosocial functioning was assessed using a standardised self-report measure. At baseline the group had a relatively high level of intellectual self-awareness regarding their deficits, a low to moderate level of self-regulation skills, and significant psychosocial impairment. The participants were involved in a 16-week group programme which involved components of cognitive rehabilitation, cognitive-behavioural therapy, and social skills training. A post-intervention assessment indicated that participants had significantly improved levels of self-regulation skills and psychosocial functioning. A 6-month follow-up assessment indicated that overall, participants had maintained the gains made during the programme. The important role of self-regulation skills is emphasised as the principle factor contributing to the maintenance of the gains observed.

Considerations in the design of a mixed-method cluster evaluation of a community programme for 'at-risk' young people

This article discusses the design of a comprehensive evaluation of a community development programme for young people 'at-risk' of self-harming behaviour. It outlines considerations in the design of the evaluation and focuses on the complexities and difficulties associated with the evaluation of a community development programme. The challenge was to fulfil the needs of the funding body for a broad, outcome-focused evaluation while remaining close enough to the programme to accurately represent its activities and potential effects at a community level. Specifically, the strengths and limitations of a mixed-method evaluation plan are discussed with recommendations for future evaluation practice.

An evaluation of a suburban railway pedestrian crossing safety programme

This study evaluated a programme of educational and environmental (access prevention) interventions designed to reduce the incidence of illegal and unsafe crossing of the rail corridor at a suburban station in Auckland, New Zealand. Immediately after the programme of interventions, the proportion of those crossing the rail corridor by walking across the tracks directly rather than using the nearby overbridge had decreased substantially. Three months later, the decrease was even greater. However, the educational and environmental interventions were introduced simultaneously so that the effects of each could not be separated, nor could other unmeasured factors be ruled out. Anonymous surveys administered immediately before and 3 months after the interventions indicated that while awareness of the illegality of walking across the tracks had increased slightly, perception of risk had not changed. This suggests that the educational interventions may have had less effect than the access prevention measures. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

First Diabetic Retinopathy Prevalence Study in Portugal: RETINODIAB Study-Evaluation of the Screening Programme for Lisbon and Tagus Valley Region

BACKGROUND/AIMS: In Portugal, so far, there is no study or even accurate data on the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy (DR), based on a large representative sample and on a long-term follow-up. The objective of our study was to determine the prevalence of DR based on a national screening community-based programme. METHODS: A 5-year retrospective analysis of the RETINODIAB screening programme results was implemented in Lisbon and Tagus Valley area between July 2009 and October 2014. We estimated the prevalence of retinopathy for all patients with type 2 diabetes and studied the association between known risk factors and retinopathy emergence at their first screening. RESULTS: Throughout this period, from a total of 103 102 DR readable screening examinations, 52 739 corresponded to patients who attended RETINODIAB screening at entry. Globally, DR was detected in 8584 patients (16.3%). Of these, 5484 patients (10.4%) had mild non-proliferative (NP) DR, 1457 patients (2.8%) had moderate NPDR and 672 (1.3%) had severe NPDR. Finally, 971 patients (1.8%) had proliferative DR requiring urgent referral to an ophthalmologist. The presence of any DR, non-referable DR or referable DR was strongly associated with increasing duration of diabetes and earlier age at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence rate of DR in our study (16.3%) was slightly lower than other published international data. The RETINODIAB network proved to be an effective screening programme as it improved DR screening in Lisbon and Tagus Valley surrounding area

Evaluation épidémiologique du programme genevois de dépistage du cancer du sein : 2007-2011

A l'instar de nombreux pays industrialisés, le cancer du sein est à Genève le cancer le plus fréquent (environ 460 cas par an) et la première cause de décès chez les femmes entre 45 et 55 ans. Depuis mars 1999, le Programme genevois de dépistage du cancer du sein a pour missions de promouvoir, d'organiser et de mener une action de prévention auprès de la population féminine du canton âgée de 50 à 69 ans. Ce rapport décrit l'évolution de 15 ans d'activité de dépistage (chapitre 2) et analyse l'utilisation (chapitre 3), la qualité (chapitre 4) et l'efficacité (chapitre 5) du programme genevois entre 2007 et 2011. Couvrant 86'720 mammographies et près de 37'000 femmes, ce rapport s'intéresse aussi, au-delà des indicateurs usuels de performance, à mieux estimer certains effets indésirables comme les résultats faussement positifs ou les cancers survenant entre 2 examens de dépistage (dits cancers d'intervalle).

Evaluation du programme cantonal de soins palliatifs dans le canton de Vaud : rapport final

Il ressort que de l'avis largement majoritaire de tous les acteurs, institutions comme médecins privés, les soins palliatifs se sont améliorés dans le canton au cours des dix dernières années. Ce bilan positif est également confirmé par la comparaison des données qui avaient été recueillies en 2000 lors de la phase d'organisation des soins palliatifs dans le canton de Vaud. Trois éléments-clé sont évoqués comme cause de cette amélioration: les équipes mobiles en soins palliatifs (EMSP), les personnes-ressource et les formations en soins palliatifs . Cependant, des lacunes demeurent dans les institutions concernant, par exemple, l'inscription d'une définition des soins palliatifs dans les chartes institutionnelles ainsi que les différences observées entre les divers secteurs de soins et l'augmentation des déclarations de ressources inadéquates ou insuffisantes pour les soins palliatifs en comparaison à 2000. Les médecins quant à eux sont nombreux à faire part de leur difficulté à trouver le temps nécessaire à une formation spécifique mais aussi à faire reconnaître celui que requiert la coordination dans une prise en charge comprenant des soins palliatifs.

Evaluation of the Irish Pilot Programme for the Education of Health Care Assistants

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An evaluation of the first phase of the Irish Cervical Screening Programme from the woman's perspective

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Cook it! An evaluation of a community nutrition education programme in Northern Ireland

Cook it! was originally introduced to Northern Ireland in 1995 by the Health Promotion Agency for Northern Ireland (HPA) in a collaborative project with the Eastern Health and Social Services Board, the Northern Health and Social Services Board and the North and West Belfast Health and Social Services Trust. Having run for five years, this initial phase of the programme was evaluated in 2000. Cook it! was found to be a valuable approach to community based nutrition education. However, a number of recommendations were made as to how it could be improved. In conjunction with a number of community dietitians the HPA therefore revised and updated the programme, which included a redesigned resource manual with improved session outlines and recipe sheets. The Public Health Agency was established in 2009 under a major reform ofhealth structuresin Northern Ireland. The four key functions of the PHA are: health and social wellbeing improvement; health protection; public health support to commissioning and policy development; HSC research and development.

Evaluation of Pilot One Stop Shop Programme

In November 2010, the Public Health Agencycommissioned Social Market Research (www.socialmarketresearch.co.uk) to undertake a formative evaluation of the pilot 'One Stop Shop' (OSS) Programme. This report presents the outcomes from this evaluation as well as recommendations to support the further development of the programme beyond the pilot period.