Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Balancing the quotation process by LEAN methods

This thesis studies the possibility to use lean tools and methods in a quotation process which is carried out in an office environment. The aim of the study was to find out and test the relevant lean tools and methods which can help to balance and standardize the quotation process, and reduce the variance in quotation lead times and in quality. Seminal works, researches and guide books related to the topic were used as the basis for the theory development. Based on the literature review and the case company’s own lean experience, the applicable lean tools and methods were selected to be tested by a sales support team. Leveling production, by product categorization and value stream mapping, was a key method to be used to balance the quotation process. 5S method was started concurrently for standardizing the work. Results of the testing period showed that lean tools and methods are applicable in office process and selected tools and methods helped to balance and standardize the quotation process. Case company’s sales support team decided to implement new lean based quotation process model.

A morphometric study of the lumbar spinous process in the Chinese population

Our goal was to analyze the anatomical parameters of the lumbar spine spinous process for an interspinous stabilization device designed for the Chinese population and to offer an anatomical basis for its clinical application. The posterior lumbar spines (T12-S1) of 52 adult cadavers were used for measuring the following: distance between two adjacent spinous processes (DB), distance across two adjacent spinous processes (DA), thickness of the central spinous processes (TC), thickness of the superior margin of the spinous processes (TS), thickness of the inferior margin of the spinous processes (TI), and height of the spinous processes (H). Variance and correlation analyses were conducted for these data, and the data met the normal distribution and homogeneity of variance. DB decreased gradually from L1-2 to L5-S1. DA increased from T12-L1 to L2-3 and then decreased from L2-3 to L4-5. The largest H in males was noted at L3 (25.45±5.96 mm), whereas for females the largest H was noted at L4 (18.71±4.50 mm). Usually, TS of the adjacent spinous process was lower than TI. Based on the anatomical parameters of the lumbar spinous processes obtained in this study, an “H”-shaped coronal plane (posterior view) was proposed as an interspinous stabilization device for the Chinese population. This study reports morphometric data of the lumbar spinous processes in the Chinese population, which provides an anatomical basis for future clinical applications.

Effect of air-temperature and diet composition on the drying process of pellets for japanese abalone (Haliotis discus hannai) feeding

The aim of this research was to study the effect of air-temperature and diet composition on the mass transfer kinetics during the drying process of pellets used for Japanese Abalone (Haliotis discus hannai) feeding. In the experimental design, three temperatures were used for convective drying, as well as three different diet compositions (Diets A, B and C), in which the amount of fishmeal, spirulin, algae, fish oil and cornstarch varied. The water diffusion coefficient of the pellets was determined using the equation of Fick's second law, which resulted in values between 0.84-1.94×10-10 m²/s. The drying kinetics was modeled using Page, Modified Page, Root of time, Exponential, Logarithmic, Two-Terms, Modified Henderson-Pabis and Weibull models. In addition, two new models, referred to as 'Proposed' models 1 and 2, were used to simulate this process. According to the statistical tests applied, the models that best fitted the experimental data were Modified Henderson-Pabis, Weibull and Proposed model 2, respectively. Bifactorial analysis of variance ANOVA showed that Diet A (fishmeal 44%, spirulin 9%, fish oil 1% and cornstarch 36%) presented the highest diffusion coefficient values, which were favored by the temperature increase in the drying process.

An electrophysiological examination of intentional and inadvertent sleep onset : the effect of intention on the sleep onset process

The main purpose ofthis study was to examine the effect ofintention on the sleep onset process from an electrophysiological point ofview. To test this, two nap conditions, the Multiple Sleep Latency Test (MSLT) and the Repeated Test of Sustained Wakefulness (RTSW) were used to compare intentional and inadvertent sleep onset. Sixteen female participants (aged 19-25) spent two non-consecutive nights in the sleep lab; however, due to physical and technical difficulties only 8 participants produced compete sets of data for analysis. Each night participants were given six nap opportunities. For three ofthese naps they were instructed to fall asleep (MSLT), for the remaining three naps they were to attempt to remain awake (RTSW). These two types of nap opportunities represented the conditions ofintentional (MSLT) and inadvertent (RTSW) sleep onset. Several other sleepiness, performance, arousal and questionnaire measures were obtained to evaluate and/or control for demand characteristics, subjective effort and mental activity during the nap tests. The nap opportunities were scored using a new 9 stage scoring system developed by Hori et al. (1994). Power spectral analyses (FFT) were also performed on the sleep onset data provided by the two nap conditions. Longer sleep onset latencies (approximately 1.25 minutes) were obseIVed in the RTSW than the MSLT. A higher incidence of structured mental activity was reported in the RTSW and may have been reflected in higher Beta power during the RTSW. The decent into sleep was more ragged in the RTSW as evidenced by an increased number shifts towards higher arousal as measured using the Hori 9 stage sleep scoring method. 1ll The sleep onset process also appears to be altered by the intention to remain awake, at least until the point ofinitial Stage 2 sleep (i.e. the first appearance of spindle activity). When only examining the final 4.3 minutes ofthe sleep onset process (ending with spindle activity), there were significant interactions between the type ofnap and the time until sleep onset for Theta, Alpha and Beta power. That is to say, the pattern of spectral power measurements in these bands differed across time as a function ofthe type ofnap. The effect ofintention however, was quite small (,,2 < .04) when compared to the variance which could be accounted for by the passage oftime (,,2 == .10 to .59). These data indicate that intention alone cannot greatly extend voluntary wakefulness if a person is sleepy. This has serious implications for people who may be required to perform dangerous tasks while sleepy, particularly for people who are in a situation that does not allow them the opportunity to engage in behavioural strategies in order to maintain their arousal.

From symmetry breaking to Poisson Point Process in 2D Voronoi Tessellations: the generic nature of hexagons

We bridge the properties of the regular triangular, square, and hexagonal honeycomb Voronoi tessellations of the plane to the Poisson-Voronoi case, thus analyzing in a common framework symmetry breaking processes and the approach to uniform random distributions of tessellation-generating points. We resort to ensemble simulations of tessellations generated by points whose regular positions are perturbed through a Gaussian noise, whose variance is given by the parameter α2 times the square of the inverse of the average density of points. We analyze the number of sides, the area, and the perimeter of the Voronoi cells. For all valuesα >0, hexagons constitute the most common class of cells, and 2-parameter gamma distributions provide an efficient description of the statistical properties of the analyzed geometrical characteristics. The introduction of noise destroys the triangular and square tessellations, which are structurally unstable, as their topological properties are discontinuous in α = 0. On the contrary, the honeycomb hexagonal tessellation is topologically stable and, experimentally, all Voronoi cells are hexagonal for small but finite noise withα <0.12. For all tessellations and for small values of α, we observe a linear dependence on α of the ensemble mean of the standard deviation of the area and perimeter of the cells. Already for a moderate amount of Gaussian noise (α >0.5), memory of the specific initial unperturbed state is lost, because the statistical properties of the three perturbed regular tessellations are indistinguishable. When α >2, results converge to those of Poisson-Voronoi tessellations. The geometrical properties of n-sided cells change with α until the Poisson- Voronoi limit is reached for α > 2; in this limit the Desch law for perimeters is shown to be not valid and a square root dependence on n is established. This law allows for an easy link to the Lewis law for areas and agrees with exact asymptotic results. Finally, for α >1, the ensemble mean of the cells area and perimeter restricted to the hexagonal cells agree remarkably well with the full ensemble mean; this reinforces the idea that hexagons, beyond their ubiquitous numerical prominence, can be interpreted as typical polygons in 2D Voronoi tessellations.

Fast identification algorithms for Gaussian process model

A class identification algorithms is introduced for Gaussian process(GP)models.The fundamental approach is to propose a new kernel function which leads to a covariance matrix with low rank,a property that is consequently exploited for computational efficiency for both model parameter estimation and model predictions.The objective of either maximizing the marginal likelihood or the Kullback–Leibler (K–L) divergence between the estimated output probability density function(pdf)and the true pdf has been used as respective cost functions.For each cost function,an efficient coordinate descent algorithm is proposed to estimate the kernel parameters using a one dimensional derivative free search, and noise variance using a fast gradient descent algorithm. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new identification approaches.

Estimation of Gaussian process regression model using probability distance measures

A new class of parameter estimation algorithms is introduced for Gaussian process regression (GPR) models. It is shown that the integration of the GPR model with probability distance measures of (i) the integrated square error and (ii) Kullback–Leibler (K–L) divergence are analytically tractable. An efficient coordinate descent algorithm is proposed to iteratively estimate the kernel width using golden section search which includes a fast gradient descent algorithm as an inner loop to estimate the noise variance. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new identification approaches.

Healing process after surgical treatment with scalpel, electrocautery and laser radiation: histomorphologic and histomorphometric analysis

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Synthetic control chart for monitoring the pprocess mean and variance

In this article, we consider the synthetic control chart with two-stage sampling (SyTS chart) to control the process mean and variance. During the first stage, one item of the sample is inspected; if its value X, is close to the target value of the process mean, then the sampling is interrupted. Otherwise, the sampling goes on to the second stage, where the remaining items are inspected and the statistic T = Sigma [x(i) - mu(0) + xi sigma(0)](2) is computed taking into account all items of the sample. The design parameter is function of X-1. When the statistic T is larger than a specified value, the sample is classified as nonconforming. According to the synthetic procedure, the signal is based on Conforming Run Length (CRL). The CRL is the number of samples taken from the process since the previous nonconforming sample until the occurrence of the next nonconforming sample. If the CRL is sufficiently small, then a signal is generated. A comparative study shows that the SyTS chart and the joint X and S charts with double sampling are very similar in performance. However, from the practical viewpoint, the SyTS chart is more convenient to administer than the joint charts.

Difference variance dispersion graphs for comparing response surface designs with applications in food technology

Variance dispersion graphs have become a popular tool in aiding the choice of a response surface design. Often differences in response from some particular point, such as the expected position of the optimum or standard operating conditions, are more important than the response itself. We describe two examples from food technology. In the first, an experiment was conducted to find the levels of three factors which optimized the yield of valuable products enzymatically synthesized from sugars and to discover how the yield changed as the levels of the factors were changed from the optimum. In the second example, an experiment was conducted on a mixing process for pastry dough to discover how three factors affected a number of properties of the pastry, with a view to using these factors to control the process. We introduce the difference variance dispersion graph (DVDG) to help in the choice of a design in these circumstances. The DVDG for blocked designs is developed and the examples are used to show how the DVDG can be used in practice. In both examples a design was chosen by using the DVDG, as well as other properties, and the experiments were conducted and produced results that were useful to the experimenters. In both cases the conclusions were drawn partly by comparing responses at different points on the response surface.

Densitometric analysis of the autogenous demineralized dentin matrix on the dental socket wound healing process in humans

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of the autogenous demineralized dentin matrix (ADDM) on the third molar socket wound healing process in humans, using the guided bone regeneration technique and a polytetrafluoroethylene barrier (PTFE). Twenty-seven dental sockets were divided into three groups: dental socket (Control), dental socket with PTFE barrier (PTFE), and dental socket with ADDM slices associated to PTFE banier (ADDM + PTFE). The dental sockets were submitted to radiographic bone densitometry analysis and statistical analysis on the 15th, 30th, 60th and 90th days using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey's test (p ≤ 0.05). The radiographic analysis of the ADDM + PTFE group showed greater homogeneity of bone radiopacity than the Control group and the PTFE group, during all the observation times. The dentin matrix gradually disappeared from the dental socket during the course of the repair process, suggesting its resorption during the bone remodeling process. It was concluded that the radiographic bone density of the dental sockets treated with ADDM was similar to that of the surrounding normal bone on the 90th day. The ADDM was biocompatible with the bone tissue of the surgical wounds of human dental sockets. The radiographic analysis revealed that the repair process was discreetly faster in the ADDM + PTFE group than in the Control and PTFE groups, although the difference was not statistically significant. In addition, the radiographic image of the ADDM + PTFE group suggested that its bone architecture was better than that of the Control and PFTE groups.

In vitro evaluation of surface roughness of 4 resin composites after the toothbrushing process and methods to recover superficial smoothness.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the efficiency of repolishing, sealing with surface sealant, and the joining of both in decreasing the surface roughness of resin-based composites after a toothbrushing process. METHOD AND MATERIALS: Ten specimens of each composite (Alert, Z100, Definite, and Prodigy Condensable), measuring 2 mm in thickness and 4 mm in diameter, were made and submitted to finishing and polishing processes on both sides of the specimens using the Sof-Lex system. The specimens were then subjected to toothbrushing (30,000 cycles), and surface roughness (Ra) was analyzed with a Surfcorder SE 1700 profilometer. The upper surface of each composite was etched with 37% phosphoric acid, and the surface-penetrating sealant Protect-it was applied on 1 surface. The roughness of these surfaces was again measured. On the other side, the surface of the specimen was repolished, and the efficiency of this procedure was measured using the profilometer. The surface roughness resulting from the joining of the 2 methods was verified by applying, in the final stage, the surface-penetrating sealant on the repolished surface. Data were analyzed with analysis of variance and Tukey test (P <.05). RESULTS: Results showed that the lowest surface roughness values were obtained for Definite, Z100, and Prodigy Condensable after the repolishing process and after the repolishing plus sealing. For Alert, the joining of repolishing plus sealing promoted the lowest values of surface roughness. CONCLUSION: Of the resin-based composites, Alert demonstrated the highest values of surface roughness in all the techniques tested.

Healing Process of Autogenous Bone Graft in Spontaneously Hypertensive Rats Treated With Losartan: An Immunohistochemical and Histomorphometric Study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Osmotic dehydration of mango with ascorbic acid impregnation: influence of process variables

The present study investigated the osmotic dehydration (OD) of mangoes cv.Palmer, dehydrated in a sucrose solution with added ascorbic acid (AA), aiming toevaluate the influence of the process variables (sucrose concentration, AA concen-tration and time) on vitamin C, water, sugars and total phenolic compound (TPC)contents by way of an analysis of the effects and the variance of the factors. Thesucrose concentration did not affect the vitamin C content, but the AA concentra-tion in the solution and the process time exerted a positive influence on thisresponse. The addition of AA also presented a significant positive effect on theTPC contents because this vitamin interferes with the quantification of the TPC.On discounting the interferences, no losses of phenolic compounds were found.Impregnation with vitamin C during OD was shown to be effective in obtainingminimally processed mangoes with high nutritional value.