A STUDY OF INFLUENZA AND OF STATISTICAL METHODS USED TO REPORT INFLUENZA

This paper defines and compares several models for describing excess influenza pneumonia mortality in Houston. First, the methodology used by the Center for Disease Control is examined and several variations of this methodology are studied. All of the models examined emphasize the difficulty of omitting epidemic weeks.^ In an attempt to find a better method of describing expected and epidemic mortality, time series methods are examined. Grouping in four-week periods, truncating the data series to adjust epidemic periods, and seasonally-adjusting the series y(,t), by:^ (DIAGRAM, TABLE OR GRAPHIC OMITTED...PLEASE SEE DAI)^ is the best method examined. This new series w(,t) is stationary and a moving average model MA(1) gives a good fit for forecasting influenza and pneumonia mortality in Houston.^ Influenza morbidity, other causes of death, sex, race, age, climate variables, environmental factors, and school absenteeism are all examined in terms of their relationship to influenza and pneumonia mortality. Both influenza morbidity and ischemic heart disease mortality show a very high relationship that remains when seasonal trends are removed from the data. However, when jointly modeling the three series it is obvious that the simple time series MA(1) model of truncated, seasonally-adjusted four-week data gives a better forecast.^

Applying logic forms and statistical methods to CL-SR performance

This paper describes a CL-SR system that employs two different techniques: the first one is based on NLP rules that consist on applying logic forms to the topic processing while the second one basically consists on applying the IR-n statistical search engine to the spoken document collection. The application of logic forms to the topics allows to increase the weight of topic terms according to a set of syntactic rules. Thus, the weights of the topic terms are used by IR-n system in the information retrieval process.

Analytical statistics : statistical methods, testing for significance /

Mode of access: Internet.

An evaluation of task analysis techniques for industrial process control

The concept of a task is fundamental to the discipline of ergonomics. Approaches to the analysis of tasks began in the early 1900's. These approaches have evolved and developed to the present day, when there is a vast array of methods available. Some of these methods are specific to particular contexts or applications, others more general. However, whilst many of these analyses allow tasks to be examined in detail, they do not act as tools to aid the design process or the designer. The present thesis examines the use of task analysis in a process control context, and in particular the use of task analysis to specify operator information and display requirements in such systems. The first part of the thesis examines the theoretical aspect of task analysis and presents a review of the methods, issues and concepts relating to task analysis. A review of over 80 methods of task analysis was carried out to form a basis for the development of a task analysis method to specify operator information requirements in industrial process control contexts. Of the methods reviewed Hierarchical Task Analysis was selected to provide such a basis and developed to meet the criteria outlined for such a method of task analysis. The second section outlines the practical application and evolution of the developed task analysis method. Four case studies were used to examine the method in an empirical context. The case studies represent a range of plant contexts and types, both complex and more simple, batch and continuous and high risk and low risk processes. The theoretical and empirical issues are drawn together and a method developed to provide a task analysis technique to specify operator information requirements and to provide the first stages of a tool to aid the design of VDU displays for process control.

Delivering enhanced efficiency in the synthesis of α-diazosulfoxides by exploiting the process control enabled in flow

Continuous-flow generation of α-diazosulfoxides results in a two- to three-fold increase in yields and decreased reaction times compared to standard batch synthesis methods. These high yielding reactions are enabled by flowing through a bed of polystyrene-supported base (PS-DBU or PS-NMe2) with highly controlled residence times. This engineered solution allows the α-diazosulfoxides to be rapidly synthesized while limiting exposure of the products to basic reaction conditions, which have been found to cause rapid decomposition. In addition to improved yields, this work has the added advantage of ease of processing, increased safety profile, and scale-up potential.

Learning to win process-control games watching game-masters

The present paper focuses on some interesting classes of process-control games, where winning essentially means successfully controlling the process. A master for one of these games is an agent who plays a winning strategy. In this paper we investigate situations in which even a complete model (given by a program) of a particular game does not provide enough information to synthesize—even incrementally—a winning strategy. However, if in addition to getting a program, a machine may also watch masters play winning strategies, then the machine is able to incrementally learn a winning strategy for the given game. Studied are successful learning from arbitrary masters and from pedagogically useful selected masters. It is shown that selected masters are strictly more helpful for learning than are arbitrary masters. Both for learning from arbitrary masters and for learning from selected masters, though, there are cases where one can learn programs for winning strategies from masters but not if one is required to learn a program for the master's strategy itself. Both for learning from arbitrary masters and for learning from selected masters, one can learn strictly more by watching m+1 masters than one can learn by watching only m. Last, a simulation result is presented where the presence of a selected master reduces the complexity from infinitely many semantic mind changes to finitely many syntactic ones.

Thermal profile of a near-adiabatic compression process in a cylindrical tube and establishment of critical control elements for repeatable process control

The compressed gas industry and government agencies worldwide utilize "adiabatic compression" testing for qualifying high-pressure valves, regulators, and other related flow control equipment for gaseous oxygen service. This test methodology is known by various terms including adiabatic compression testing, gaseous fluid impact testing, pneumatic impact testing, and BAM testing as the most common terms. The test methodology will be described in greater detail throughout this document but in summary it consists of pressurizing a test article (valve, regulator, etc.) with gaseous oxygen within 15 to 20 milliseconds (ms). Because the driven gas1 and the driving gas2 are rapidly compressed to the final test pressure at the inlet of the test article, they are rapidly heated by the sudden increase in pressure to sufficient temperatures (thermal energies) to sometimes result in ignition of the nonmetallic materials (seals and seats) used within the test article. In general, the more rapid the compression process the more "adiabatic" the pressure surge is presumed to be and the more like an isentropic process the pressure surge has been argued to simulate. Generally speaking, adiabatic compression is widely considered the most efficient ignition mechanism for directly kindling a nonmetallic material in gaseous oxygen and has been implicated in many fire investigations. Because of the ease of ignition of many nonmetallic materials by this heating mechanism, many industry standards prescribe this testing. However, the results between various laboratories conducting the testing have not always been consistent. Research into the test method indicated that the thermal profile achieved (i.e., temperature/time history of the gas) during adiabatic compression testing as required by the prevailing industry standards has not been fully modeled or empirically verified, although attempts have been made. This research evaluated the following questions: 1) Can the rapid compression process required by the industry standards be thermodynamically and fluid dynamically modeled so that predictions of the thermal profiles be made, 2) Can the thermal profiles produced by the rapid compression process be measured in order to validate the thermodynamic and fluid dynamic models; and, estimate the severity of the test, and, 3) Can controlling parameters be recommended so that new guidelines may be established for the industry standards to resolve inconsistencies between various test laboratories conducting tests according to the present standards?

Review of statistical methods for disease mapping

Cancer poses an undeniable burden to the health and wellbeing of the Australian community. In a recent report commissioned by the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare(AIHW, 2010), one in every two Australians on average will be diagnosed with cancer by the age of 85, making cancer the second leading cause of death in 2007, preceded only by cardiovascular disease. Despite modest decreases in standardised combined cancer mortality over the past few decades, in part due to increased funding and access to screening programs, cancer remains a significant economic burden. In 2010, all cancers accounted for an estimated 19% of the country's total burden of disease, equating to approximately $3:8 billion in direct health system costs (Cancer Council Australia, 2011). Furthermore, there remains established socio-economic and other demographic inequalities in cancer incidence and survival, for example, by indigenous status and rurality. Therefore, in the interests of the nation's health and economic management, there is an immediate need to devise data-driven strategies to not only understand the socio-economic drivers of cancer but also facilitate the implementation of cost-effective resource allocation for cancer management...

A survey of control allocation methods for underwater vehicles

A control allocation system implements a function that maps the desired control forces generated by the vehicle motion controller into the commands of the different actuators. In this article, a survey of control allocation methods for over-actuated underwater vehicles is presented. The methods are applicable for both surface vessels and underwater vehicles. The paper presents a survey of control allocation methods with focus on mathematical representation and solvability of thruster allocation problems. The paper is useful for university students and engineers who want to get an overview of state-of-the art control allocation methods as well as advance methods to solve more complex problems.

Statistical methods for electromyography data and associated problems

This thesis proposes three novel models which extend the statistical methodology for motor unit number estimation, a clinical neurology technique. Motor unit number estimation is important in the treatment of degenerative muscular diseases and, potentially, spinal injury. Additionally, a recent and untested statistic to enable statistical model choice is found to be a practical alternative for larger datasets. The existing methods for dose finding in dual-agent clinical trials are found to be suitable only for designs of modest dimensions. The model choice case-study is the first of its kind containing interesting results using so-called unit information prior distributions.

Statistical methods for analysis of multi-harvest data from perennial pasture variety selection trials

Variety selection in perennial pasture crops involves identifying best varieties from data collected from multiple harvest times in field trials. For accurate selection, the statistical methods for analysing such data need to account for the spatial and temporal correlation typically present. This paper provides an approach for analysing multi-harvest data from variety selection trials in which there may be a large number of harvest times. Methods are presented for modelling the variety by harvest effects while accounting for the spatial and temporal correlation between observations. These methods provide an improvement in model fit compared to separate analyses for each harvest, and provide insight into variety by harvest interactions. The approach is illustrated using two traits from a lucerne variety selection trial. The proposed method provides variety predictions allowing for the natural sources of variation and correlation in multi-harvest data.

Estimation of Execution Times of Process Control Algorithms on Microcomputers

An important question which has to be answered in evaluting the suitability of a microcomputer for a control application is the time it would take to execute the specified control algorithm. In this paper, we present a method of obtaining closed-form formulas to estimate this time. These formulas are applicable to control algorithms in which arithmetic operations and matrix manipulations dominate. The method does not require writing detailed programs for implementing the control algorithm. Using this method, the execution times of a variety of control algorithms on a range of 16-bit mini- and recently announced microcomputers are calculated. The formulas have been verified independently by an analysis program, which computes the execution time bounds of control algorithms coded in Pascal when they are run on a specified micro- or minicomputer.