Parameterizing probabilities for estimating age-composition distributions for mixture models

When estimating parameters that constitute a discrete probability distribution {pj}, it is difficult to determine how constraints should be made to guarantee that the estimated parameters { pˆj} constitute a probability distribution (i.e., pˆj>0, Σ pˆj =1). For age distributions estimated from mixtures of length-at-age distributions, the EM (expectationmaximization) algorithm (Hasselblad, 1966; Hoenig and Heisey, 1987; Kimura and Chikuni, 1987), restricted least squares (Clark, 1981), and weak quasisolutions (Troynikov, 2004) have all been used. Each of these methods appears to guarantee that the estimated distribution will be a true probability distribution with all categories greater than or equal to zero and with individual probabilities that sum to one. In addition, all these methods appear to provide a theoretical basis for solutions that will be either maximum-likelihood estimates or at least convergent to a probability distribut

Estimates of survival probabilities for oceanic-stage loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the North Atlantic

Estimates of instantaneous mortality rates (Z) and annual apparent survival probabilities (Φ) were generated from catch-curve analyses for oceanic-stage juvenile loggerheads (Caretta caretta) in the waters of the Azores. Two age distributions were analyzed: the “total sample” of 1600 loggerheads primarily captured by sighting and dipnetting from a variety of vessels in the Azores between 1984 and 1995 and the “tuna sample” of 733 loggerheads (a subset of the total sample) captured by sighting and dipnetting from vessels in the commercial tuna fleet in the Azores between 1990 and 1992. Because loggerhead sea turtles begin to emigrate from oceanic to neritic habitats at age 7, the best estimates of instantaneous mortality rate (0.094) and annual survival probability (0.911) not confounded with permanent emigration were generated for age classes 2 through 6. These estimates must be interpreted with caution because of the assumptions upon which catch-curve analyses are based. However, these are the first directly derived estimates of mortality and survival probabilities for oceanic-stage sea turtles. Estimation of survival probabilities was identified as “an immediate and critical requirement” in 2000 by the Turtle Expert Working Group of the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service.

Projective Limit Random Probabilities on Polish Spaces

A pivotal problem in Bayesian nonparametrics is the construction of prior distributions on the space M(V) of probability measures on a given domain V. In principle, such distributions on the infinite-dimensional space M(V) can be constructed from their finite-dimensional marginals---the most prominent example being the construction of the Dirichlet process from finite-dimensional Dirichlet distributions. This approach is both intuitive and applicable to the construction of arbitrary distributions on M(V), but also hamstrung by a number of technical difficulties. We show how these difficulties can be resolved if the domain V is a Polish topological space, and give a representation theorem directly applicable to the construction of any probability distribution on M(V) whose first moment measure is well-defined. The proof draws on a projective limit theorem of Bochner, and on properties of set functions on Polish spaces to establish countable additivity of the resulting random probabilities.

COMPARISONS OF PHASE TIMES WITH TUNNELING TIMES BASED ON ABSORPTION PROBABILITIES

The times spent by an electron in a scattering event or tunnelling through a potential barrier are investigated using a method based on the absorption probabilities. The reflection and transmission times derived from this method are equal to the local Larmor times if the transmission and reflection probability amplitudes are complex analytic functions of the complex potential. The numerical results show that they coincide with the phase times except as the incident electron energy approaches zero or when the transmission probability is too small. If the imaginary potential covers the whole space the tunnelling times are again equal to the phase times. The results show that the tunnelling times based on absorption probabilities are the best of the various candidates.

MEASUREMENT AND CALCULATION OF SPONTANEOUS EMISSION BRANCHING RATIOS, RELATIVE OSCILLATOR-STRENGTHS, TRANSITION-PROBABILITIES AND LEVEL LIFETIMES FOR ATOMIC URANIUM

We propose a laser induced sensitized fluorescence spectrometry for measuring the spontaneous emission branching ratios o?the transitions from the ten levels 5f36d7s7p-7M7, 5f36d7s7p-7L6, 5f37s27p-5K6, 5f26d27s2 - 5L7, 5f46d7s - 7L6, (17,070cm-1)-5L6, 5f26d27s2-5K6, 6d7s7p-7L5, 5f36d7s7p-7K5 and 5f26d27s2-5I5 to the ground state of atomic uranium (UI) for the first time. Their relative oscillator strengths have been measured by means of hollow cathode discharge (HCD) emission spectrometry. The radiative...

Calculation of Blocking Probabilities in Multistage Interconnection Networks with Redundant Paths

The blocking probability of a network is a common measure of its performance. There exist means of quickly calculating the blocking probabilities of Banyan networks; however, because Banyan networks have no redundant paths, they are not inherently fault-tolerant, and so their use in large-scale multiprocessors is problematic. Unfortunately, the addition of multiple paths between message sources and sinks in a network complicates the calculation of blocking probabilities. A methodology for exact calculation of blocking probabilities for small networks with redundant paths is presented here, with some discussion of its potential use in approximating blocking probabilities for large networks with redundant paths.

Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

Energy levels and transition probabilities for nitrogen-like Fe xx

Energies of the 700 lowest levels in Fe XX have been obtained using the multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock method. Configuration interaction method on the basis set of transformed radial orbitals with variable parameters taking into account relativistic corrections in the Breit-Pauli approximation was used to crosscheck our presented results. Transition probabilities, oscillator and line strengths are presented for electric dipole (E1), electric quadrupole (E2) and magnetic dipole (M1) transitions among these levels. The total radiative transition probabilities from each level are also provided. Results are compared with data compiled by NIST and with other theoretical work.

Relativistic allowed and forbidden transition probabilities for fluorine-like Fe XVIII

Energy levels and the corresponding transition probabilities for allowed and forbidden transitions among the levels of the ground configuration and first 23 excited configurations of fluorine-like Fe XVIII have been calculated using the multiconfigurational Dirac-Fock GRASP code. A total of 379 lowest bound levels of Fe XVIII is presented, and the energy levels are identified in spectroscopic notations. Transition probabilities, oscillator strengths and line strengths for electric dipole (E1), electric quadrupole (E2) and magnetic dipole (M1) transitions among these 379 levels are also presented. The calculated energy levels and transition probabilities are compared with experimental data.

Dirac-Fock energy levels and transition probabilities for oxygen-like Fe XIX

Multiconfigurational Dirac-Fock calculations are reported for 656 energy levels and the 214 840 electric dipole (E I), electric quadrupole (E2) and magnetic dipole (M1) transition probabilities in oxygen-like Fe xix. The spectroscopic notations as well as the total transition probabilities from each energy level are provided. Good agreement is found with data compiled by NIST.

Geometry- and diffraction-independent ionization probabilities in intense laser fields: Probing atomic ionization mechanisms with effective intensity matching

We report an experimental technique for the comparison of ionization processes in ultrafast laser pulses irrespective of pulse ellipticity. Multiple ionization of xenon by 50 fs 790 nm, linearly and circularly polarized laser pulses is observed over the intensity range 10 TW/cm(2) to 10 PW/cm(2) using effective intensity matching (EIM), which is coupled with intensity selective scanning (ISS) to recover the geometry-independent probability of ionization. Such measurements, made possible by quantifying diffraction effects in the laser focus, are compared directly to theoretical predictions of multiphoton, tunnel and field ionization, and a remarkable agreement demonstrated. EIM-ISS allows the straightforward quantification of the probability of recollision ionization in a linearly polarized laser pulse. Furthermore, the probability of ionization is discussed in terms of the Keldysh adiabaticity parameter gamma, and the influence of the precursor ionic states present in recollision ionization is observed.

Reconstruction of atomic ionization probabilities in intense laser fields

Application of a parallel-projection inversion technique to z-scan spectra of multiply charged xenon and krypton ions, obtained by non-resonant field ionization of neutral targets, has for the first time permitted the direct observation of intensity-dependent ionization probabilities. These ionization efficiency curves have highlighted the presence of structure in the tunnelling regime, previously unobserved under full-volume techniques.