Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Sustainable urban development : formulation of indicator-based residential sustainability assessment framework for local level

Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to formulate a conceptual framework for urban sustainability indicators selection. This framework will be used to develop an indicator-based evaluation method for assessing the sustainability levels of residential neighbourhood developments in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach–We provide a brief overview of existing evaluation frameworks for sustainable development assessment. We then develop a conceptual Sustainable Residential Neighbourhood Assessment (SNA) framework utilising a four-pillar sustainability framework (environmental, social, economic and institutional) and a combination of domain-based and goal-based general frameworks. This merger offers the advantages of both individual frameworks, while also overcoming some of their weaknesses when used to develop the urban sustainability evaluation method for assessing residential neighbourhoods. Originality/value–This approach puts in evidence that many of the existing frameworks for evaluating urban sustainability do not extend their frameworks to include assessing housing sustainability at a local level. Practical implications–It is expected that the use of the indicator-based Sustainable Neighbourhood Assessment framework will present a potential mechanism for planners and developers to evaluate and monitor the sustainability performance of residential neighbourhood developments.

David Hicks and Cathie Holden (eds.) (2007). Teaching The Global Dimension. London: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 212 pages.

Teaching The Global Dimension (2007) is intended for primary and secondary teachers, pre-service teachers and educators interested in fostering global concerns in the education system. It aims at linking theory and practice and is structured as follows. Part 1, the global dimension, proposes an educational framework for understanding global concerns. Individual chapters in this section deal with some educational responses to global issues and the ways in which young people might become, in Hick’s terms, more “world-minded”. In the first two chapters, Hicks presents first, some educational responses to global issues that have emerged in recent decades, and second, an outline of the evolution of global education as a specific field. As with all the chapters in this book, most of the examples are drawn from the United Kingdom. Young people’s concerns, student teachers’ views and the teaching of controversial issues, comprise the other chapters in this section. Taken collectively, the chapters in Part 2 articulate the conceptual framework for developing, teaching and evaluating a global dimension across the curriculum. Individual chapters in this section, written by a range of authors, explore eight key concepts considered necessary to underpin appropriate learning experiences in the classroom. These are conflict, social justice, values and perceptions, sustainability, interdependence, human rights, diversity and citizenship. These chapters are engaging and well structured. Their common format consists of a succinct introduction, reference to positive action for change, and examples of recent effective classroom practice. Two chapters comprise the final section of this book and suggest different ways in which the global dimension can be achieved in the primary and the secondary classroom.

Numerical solution to the Saffman-Taylor finger problem with kinetic undercooling regularisation

The Saffman-Taylor finger problem is to predict the shape and,in particular, width of a finger of fluid travelling in a Hele-Shaw cell filled with a different, more viscous fluid. In experiments the width is dependent on the speed of propagation of the finger, tending to half the total cell width as the speed increases. To predict this result mathematically, nonlinear effects on the fluid interface must be considered; usually surface tension is included for this purpose. This makes the mathematical problem suffciently diffcult that asymptotic or numerical methods must be used. In this paper we adapt numerical methods used to solve the Saffman-Taylor finger problem with surface tension to instead include the effect of kinetic undercooling, a regularisation effect important in Stefan melting-freezing problems, for which Hele-Shaw flow serves as a leading order approximation when the specific heat of a substance is much smaller than its latent heat. We find the existence of a solution branch where the finger width tends to zero as the propagation speed increases, disagreeing with some aspects of the asymptotic analysis of the same problem. We also find a second solution branch, supporting the idea of a countably infinite number of branches as with the surface tension problem.

Discovering relevant features for effective query formulation

The quality of discovered features in relevance feedback (RF) is the key issue for effective search query. Most existing feedback methods do not carefully address the issue of selecting features for noise reduction. As a result, extracted noisy features can easily contribute to undesirable effectiveness. In this paper, we propose a novel feature extraction method for query formulation. This method first extract term association patterns in RF as knowledge for feature extraction. Negative RF is then used to improve the quality of the discovered knowledge. A novel information filtering (IF) model is developed to evaluate the proposed method. The experimental results conducted on Reuters Corpus Volume 1 and TREC topics confirm that the proposed model achieved encouraging performance compared to state-of-the-art IF models.

Security constrained economic dispatch considering wind energy conversion systems

The available wind power is stochastic and requires appropriate tools in the OPF model for economic and reliable power system operation. This paper exhibit the OPF formulation with factors involved in the intermittency of wind power. Weibull distribution is adopted to find the stochastic wind speed and power distribution. The reserve requirement is evaluated based on the wind distribution and risk of under/over estimation of the wind power. In addition, the Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) is represented by Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based wind farms. The reactive power capability for DFIG based wind farm is also analyzed. The study is performed on IEEE-30 bus system with wind farm located at different buses and with different wind profiles. Also the reactive power capacity to be installed in the wind farm to maintain a satisfactory voltage profile under the various wind flow scenario is demonstrated.

Stability studies of HIV-1 Pr55gag virus-like particles made in insect cells after storage in various formulation media

Background: HIV-1 Pr55gag virus-like particles (VLPs) expressed by baculovirus in insect cells are considered to be a very promising HIV-1 vaccine candidate, as they have been shown to elicit broad cellular immune responses when tested in animals, particularly when used as a boost to DNA or BCG vaccines. However, it is important for the VLPs to retain their structure for them to be fully functional and effective. The medium in which the VLPs are formulated and the temperature at which they are stored are two important factors affecting their stability. FINDINGS We describe the screening of 3 different readily available formulation media (sorbitol, sucrose and trehalose) for their ability to stabilise HIV-1 Pr55gag VLPs during prolonged storage. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) was done on VLPs stored at two different concentrations of the media at three different temperatures (4[degree sign]C, --20[degree sign]C and -70[degree sign]C) over different time periods, and the appearance of the VLPs was compared. VLPs stored in 15% trehalose at -70[degree sign]C retained their original appearance the most effectively over a period of 12 months. VLPs stored in 5% trehalose, sorbitol or sucrose were not all intact even after 1 month storage at the temperatures tested. In addition, we showed that VLPs stored under these conditions were able to be frozen and re-thawed twice before showing changes in their appearance. Conclusions Although the inclusion of other analytical tools are essential to validate these preliminary findings, storage in 15% trehalose at -70[degree sign]C for 12 months is most effective in retaining VLP stability.

Natural convection flow with surface radiation along a vertical wavy surface

In this study, natural convection boundary layer flow of thermally radiating fluid along a heated vertical wavy surface is analyzed. Here, the radiative component of heat flux emulates the surface temperature. Governing equations are reduced to dimensionless form, subject to the appropriate transformation. Resulting dimensionless equations are transformed to a set of parabolic partial differential equations by using primitive variable formulation, which are then integrated numerically via iterative finite difference scheme. Emphasis has been given to low Prandtl number fluid. The numerical results obtained for the physical parameters, such as, surface radiation parameter, R, and radiative length parameter, ξ, are discussed in terms of local skin friction and Nusselt number coefficients. Comprehensive interpretation of velocity distribution is also given in the form of streamlines.

Role of resting metabolic rate and energy expenditure in hunger and appetite control : a new formulation

A long-running issue in appetite research concerns the influence of energy expenditure on energy intake. More than 50 years ago, Otto G. Edholm proposed that "the differences between the intakes of food [of individuals] must originate in differences in the expenditure of energy". However, a relationship between energy expenditure and energy intake within any one day could not be found, although there was a correlation over 2 weeks. This issue was never resolved before interest in integrative biology was replaced by molecular biochemistry. Using a psychobiological approach, we have studied appetite control in an energy balance framework using a multi-level experimental system on a single cohort of overweight and obese human subjects. This has disclosed relationships between variables in the domains of body composition [fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass (FM)], metabolism, gastrointestinal hormones, hunger and energy intake. In this Commentary, we review our own and other data, and discuss a new formulation whereby appetite control and energy intake are regulated by energy expenditure. Specifically, we propose that FFM (the largest contributor to resting metabolic rate), but not body mass index or FM, is closely associated with self-determined meal size and daily energy intake. This formulation has implications for understanding weight regulation and the management of obesity.

Numerical Characterization of Nanowires

In this chapter, we will present a contemporary review of the hitherto numerical characterization of nanowires (NWs). The bulk of the research reported in the literatures concern metallic NWs including Al, Cu, Au, Ag, Ni, and their alloys NWs. Research has also been reported for the investigation of some nonmetallic NWs, such as ZnO, GaN, SiC, SiO2. A plenty of researches have been conducted regarding the numerical investigation of NWs. Issues analyzed include structural changes under different loading situations, the formation and propagation of dislocations, and the effect of the magnitude of applied loading on deformation mechanics. Efforts have also been made to correlate simulation results with experimental measurements. However, direct comparisons are difficult since most simulations are carried out under conditions of extremely high strain/loading rates and small simulation samples due to computational limitations. Despite of the immense numerical studies of NWs, a significant work still lies ahead in terms of problem formulation, interpretation of results, identification and delineation of deformation mechanisms, and constitutive characterization of behavior. In this chapter, we present an introduction of the commonly adopted experimental and numerical approaches in studies of the deformation of NWs in Section 1. An overview of findings concerning perfect NWs under different loading situations, such as tension, compression, torsion, and bending are presented in Section 2. In Section 3, we will detail some recent results from the authors’ own work with an emphasis on the study of influences from different pre-existing defect on NWs. Some thoughts on future directions of the computational mechanics of NWs together with Conclusions will be given in the last section.

Effect of chemical conjugation of L-leucine to chitosan on the dispersibility and drug release of a dry powder inhaler nanoparticle formulation

Purpose: This study investigated the effect of chemical conjugation of the amino acid L-leucine to the polysaccharide chitosan on the dispersibility and drug release pattern of a polymeric nanoparticle (NP)-based controlled release dry powder inhaler (DPI) formulation. Methods: A chemical conjugate of L-leucine with chitosan was synthesized and characterized by Infrared (IR) Spectroscopy, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) Spectroscopy, Elemental Analysis and X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS). Nanoparticles of both chitosan and its conjugate were prepared by a water-in-oil emulsification – glutaraldehyde cross-linking method using the antihypertensive agent, diltiazem (Dz) hydrochloride as the model drug. The surface morphology and particle size distribution of the nanoparticles were determined by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Dynamic Light Scattering (DLS). The dispersibility of the nanoparticle formulation was analysed by a Twin Stage Impinger (TSI) with a Rotahaler as the DPI device. Deposition of the particles in the different stages was determined by gravimetry and the amount of drug released was analysed by UV spectrophotometry. The release profile of the drug was studied in phosphate buffered saline at 37 ⁰C and analyzed by UV spectrophotometry. Results: The TSI study revealed that the fine particle fractions (FPF), as determined gravimetrically, for empty and drug-loaded conjugate nanoparticles were significantly higher than for the corresponding chitosan nanoparticles (24±1.2% and 21±0.7% vs 19±1.2% and 15±1.5% respectively; n=3, p<0.05). The FPF of drug-loaded chitosan and conjugate nanoparticles, in terms of the amount of drug determined spectrophotometrically, had similar values (21±0.7% vs 16±1.6%). After an initial burst, both chitosan and conjugate nanoparticles showed controlled release that lasted about 8 to 10 days, but conjugate nanoparticles showed twice as much total drug release compared to chitosan nanoparticles (~50% vs ~25%). Conjugate nanoparticles also showed significantly higher dug loading and entrapment efficiency than chitosan nanoparticles (conjugate: 20±1% & 46±1%, chitosan: 16±1% & 38±1%, n=3, p<0.05). Conclusion: Although L-leucine conjugation to chitosan increased dispersibility of formulated nanoparticles, the FPF values are still far from optimum. The particles showed a high level of initial burst release (chitosan, 16% and conjugate, 31%) that also will need further optimization.

Part-time working by students : is it a policy issue, and for whom?

This paper uses data from interviews with representatives of national and state organisations that have a policy interest in student-working in Australia. The interviewees included representatives from employer bodies and trade unions as well as government organisations. The data are used to discuss these stakeholders’ perceptions of the main advantages and disadvantages of working by young full-time students and the ways in which organisations in the business and educational sectors have adapted their policies and practices for student-working. The analysis is then used to inform a discussion about whether this is a legitimate area for public policy formulation and if so, what principles might underpin such policy and what some policies might look like.

Higher-order non-linear analysis of steel structures. Part I : elastic second-order formulation

This paper presents a higher-order beam-column formulation that can capture the geometrically non-linear behaviour of steel framed structures which contain a multiplicity of slender members. Despite advances in computational frame software, analyses of large frames can still be problematic from a numerical standpoint and so the intent of the paper is to fulfil a need for versatile, reliable and efficient non-linear analysis of general steel framed structures with very many members. Following a comprehensive review of numerical frame analysis techniques, a fourth-order element is derived and implemented in an updated Lagrangian formulation, and it is able to predict flexural buckling, snap-through buckling and large displacement post-buckling behaviour of typical structures whose responses have been reported by independent researchers. The solutions are shown to be efficacious in terms of a balance of accuracy and computational expediency. The higher-order element forms a basis for augmenting the geometrically non-linear approach with material non-linearity through the refined plastic hinge methodology described in the companion paper.