Genetic algorithm methodology applied to intelligent house control

In recent years the use of several new resources in power systems, such as distributed generation, demand response and more recently electric vehicles, has significantly increased. Power systems aim at lowering operational costs, requiring an adequate energy resources management. In this context, load consumption management plays an important role, being necessary to use optimization strategies to adjust the consumption to the supply profile. These optimization strategies can be integrated in demand response programs. The control of the energy consumption of an intelligent house has the objective of optimizing the load consumption. This paper presents a genetic algorithm approach to manage the consumption of a residential house making use of a SCADA system developed by the authors. Consumption management is done reducing or curtailing loads to keep the power consumption in, or below, a specified energy consumption limit. This limit is determined according to the consumer strategy and taking into account the renewable based micro generation, energy price, supplier solicitations, and consumers’ preferences. The proposed approach is compared with a mixed integer non-linear approach.

Control in distribution networks with demand side management

The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

The price of honour: The corporate governance of Banco Espirito Santo

The Price of Honour is a case study, supported with teaching notes, which describes the events and circumstances surrounding the implosion of one of Portugal’s most systemically important banks - Banco Espírito Santo (BES). The case focuses on BES’s corporate governance and how the Espírito Santo family’s tight control of the bank led to its exploitation. Although the situation caught the attention of the bank’s supervisors, their untimely actions could not prevent BES’s financial health from crumbling only two months after a rights issue. With little leeway, the supervisors put forward a resolution which dramatically ended the bank’s centennial legacy.

Equity offerings, stock price crash risk, and the impact of securities regulation: international evidence

We examine whether earnings manipulation around seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) is associated with an increase in the likelihood of a stock price crash post-issue and test whether the enactment of securities regulations attenuate the relation between SEOs and crash risk. Empirical evidence documents that managerial tendency to conceal bad news increases the likelihood of a stock price crash (Jin and Myers, 2006; Hutton, Marcus, and Tehranian, 2009). We test this hypothesis using a sample of firms from 29 EU countries that enacted the Market Abuse Directive (MAD). Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that equity issuers that engage in earnings management experience a significant increase in crash risk post-SEO relative to control groups of non-issuers; this effect is stronger for equity issuers with poor information environments. In addition, our findings show a significant decline in crash risk post-issue after the enactment of MAD that is stronger for firms that actively manage earnings. This decline in post-issue crash risk is more effective in countries with high ex-ante institutional quality and enforcement. These results suggest that the implementation of MAD helps to mitigate managers’ ability to manipulate earnings around SEOs.

The Complete Information First. Price Auction or the Importance of Being Indivisible

Abstract Despite the popularity of auction theoretical thinking, it appears that no one has presented an elementary equilibrium analysis of the first-price sealed-bid auction mechanism under complete information. This paper aims to remedy that omission. We show that the existence of pure strategy undominated Nash equilibria requires that the bidding space is not "too divisible" (that is, a continuum). In fact, when bids must form part of a finite grid there always exists a "high price equilibrium". However, there might also be "low price equilibria" and when the bidding space is very restrictive the revenue obtained in these "low price equilibria" might be very low. We discuss the properties of the equilibria and an application of auction theoretical thinking in which "low price equilibria" may be relevant. Keywords: First-price auctions, undominated Nash equilibria. JEL Classification Numbers: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D44 (Auctions).

Current concepts of snail control

Schistosomiasis control was impossible without effective tools. Synthetic molluscicides developed in the 1950s spearheaded community level control. Snail eradication proved impossible but repeated mollusciciding to manage natural snail populations could eliminate transmission. Escalating costs, logistical complexity, its labour-intensive nature and possible environmental effects caused some concern. The arrival of safe, effective, single-dose drugs in the 1970s offered an apparently better alternative but experience revealed the need for repeated treatments to minimise reinfection in programmes relying on drugs alone. Combining treatment with mollusciciding was more successful, but broke down if mollusciciding was withdrawn to save money. The provision of sanitation and safe water to prevent transmission is too expensive in poor rural areas where schistosomiasis is endemic; rendering ineffective public health education linked to primary health care. In the tropics, moreover, children (the key group in maintaining transmission) will always play in water. Large scale destruction of natural snail habitats remains impossibly expensive (although proper design could render many new man-made habitats unsuitable for snails). Neither biological control agents nor plant molluscicides have proved satisfactory alternatives to synthetic molluscicides. Biologists can develop effective strategies for using synthetic molluscicides in different epidemiological situations if only, like drugs, their price can be reduced.

What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion

This paper examines statins competition in the Spanish pharmaceutical market, where prices are highly regulated, and simulates a situation in which there is unrestricted price competition. A nested logit demand model is estimated with a panel of monthly data for pharmaceuticals prescribed from 1997 to 2005. The simulation indicates that the regulation of prices is similar in its effects to cooperation among producers, since the regulated prices are close to those that would be observed in a scenario of perfect collusion. Freedom to set prices and a regulatory framework with appropriate incentives would result in a general reduction in prices and may make the current veiled competition in the form of discounts to pharmacists become more visible. The decrease in prices would be partially offset by an increase in consumption but the net effect would be an overall decrease in expenditure. The counterfactual set-up would also lead to important changes in the market shares of both manufacturers and active ingredients, and a reversal of generic drugs. Therefore, pro-competitive regulation would be welfare-enhancing but would imply winners and losers.

Generic drugs in Spain: price competition vs. moral hazard

This paper examines competition between generic and brand-name drugs in the regulated Spanish pharmaceutical market. A nested logit demand model is specified for the three most consumed therapeutic subgroups in Spain: statins (anticholesterol), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (antidepressants) and proton pump inhibitors (antiulcers). The model is estimated with instrumental variables from a panel of monthly prescription data from 1999 to 2005. The dataset distinguishes between three different levels of patients’ copayments within the prescriptions and the results show that the greater the level of insurance that the patient has (and therefore the lower the patient’s copayment), the lower the proportion of generic prescriptions made by physicians. It seems that the low level of copayment has delayed the penetration of generics into the Spanish market. Additionally, the estimation of the demand model suggests that the substitution rules and promotional efforts associated with the reference pricing system have increased generic market share, and that being among the first generic entrants has an additional positive effect.

Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990's

This paper computes and compares alternative quality-adjusted price indexes for new cars in Spain in the period 1990-2000. The proposed hedonic approach simultaneously controls for time-invariant unobserved product effects and time-variant unobserved quality changes, that are assumed to be captured by model age effects. The results show that the non-adjusted price index largely overstates the increase in the cost of living induced by changes in car prices and that previous evidence for this market have not measured the real extent of that bias, probably due to the omission of controls for unobservables. It is also shown that omitting age effects can also lead to misleading conclusions. The estimated price indexes give also some insights on what could have been the determinants of price evolution in the Spanish car market. JEL classi…fication numbers: C43, E31, L11, L13, Keywords: Hedonic price indexes, Spanish car market, car prices, CPI, Cost of living

Evolutionary Control of Infectious Disease: Prospects for Vectorborne and Waterborne Pathogens

Evolutionary theory may contribute to practical solutions for control of disease by identifying interventions that may cause pathogens to evolve to reduced virulence. Theory predicts, for example, that pathogens transmitted by water or arthropod vectors should evolve to relatively high levels of virulence because such pathogens can gain the evolutionary benefits of relatively high levels of host exploitation while paying little price from host illness. The entrance of Vibrio cholerae into South America in 1991 has generated a natural experiment that allows testing of this idea by determining whether geographic and temporal variations in toxigenicity correspond to variation in the potential for waterborne transmission. Preliminary studies show such correspondences: toxigenicity is negatively associated with access to uncontaminated water in Brazil; and in Chile, where the potential for waterborne transmission is particularly low, toxigenicity of strains declined between 1991 and 1998. In theory vector-proofing of houses should be similarly associated with benignity of vectorborne pathogens, such as the agents of dengue, malaria, and Chagas' disease. These preliminary studies draw attention to the need for definitive prospective experiments to determine whether interventions such as provisioning of uncontaminated water and vector-proofing of houses cause evolutionary reductions in virulence

Different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control

This paper reviews three different approaches to modelling the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control. Although these approaches vary in their assessment of costs, the major focus of the paper is on the evaluation of effectiveness. The first model presented is a static economic model which assesses effectiveness in terms of the proportion of cases cured. This model is important in highlighting that the optimal choice of chemotherapy regime depends critically on the level of budget constraint, the unit costs of screening and treatment, the rates of compliance with screening and chemotherapy and the prevalence of infection. The limitations of this approach is that it models the cost-effectiveness of only one cycle of treatment, and effectiveness reflects only the immediate impact of treatment. The second model presented is a prevalence-based dynamic model which links prevalence rates from one year to the next, and assesses effectiveness as the proportion of cases prevented. This model was important as it introduced the concept of measuring the long-term impact of control by using a transmission model which can assess reduction in infection through time, but is limited to assessing the impact only on the prevalence of infection. The third approach presented is a theoretical framework which describes the dynamic relationships between infection and morbidity, and which assesses effectiveness in terms of case-years prevented of infection and morbidity. The use of this model in assessing the cost-effectiveness of age-targeted treatment in controlling Schistosoma mansoni is explored in detail, with respect to varying frequencies of treatment and the interaction between drug price and drug efficacy.

Price policies and Price dispersion in the private healthcare insurance industry: The Catalan case

We present an overlapping generations model that explains price dispersion among Catalonian healthcare insurance firms. The model shows that firms with different premium policies can coexist. Furthermore, if interest rates are low, firms that apply equal premium to all insureds can charge higher average prices than insurers that set premiums according to the risk of insured. Economic theory, health insurance, health economics.

The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

Convention-cadre pour la lutte antitabac: un instrument puissant de santé publique. [The Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC): a powerful public health instrument].

The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) isa global and comprehensive legal framework for reducing demand for tobacco (e.g. price measures; ban on smoking in enclosed places; contents of tobacco products; packaging and labeling; advertising, promotion and sponsorship; liability, tobacco cessation, etc.) and supply (e.g. illicit trade; sales to/by minors, etc.). Adopted in 2003, the FCTC has been ratified by 174 countries so far. Switzerland has signed the treaty in 2004 but ratification will necessitate the implementation of stronger tobacco control measures at the national level. The FCTC is a priority of any strategy to reduce noncommunicable diseases in populations. Broad implementation of the FCTC has the potential to prevent a substantial proportion of the billion of tobacco-related deaths expected in the 21st

Opinions on tobacco control policies in Lausanne, Switzerland, 2003-2006.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the determinants of opinions regarding tobacco control policies in the Swiss general population. METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted between 2003 and 2006 on a random sample of adult residents of Lausanne, Switzerland, aged 35-75 years (2601 women and 2398 men). Nine questions on smoking policies were applied. RESULTS: Ninety-five percent of responders supported policies that would help smokers to quit, 92% no selling of tobacco to subjects aged less than 16 years, 87% a smoking ban in public places and 86% a national campaign against smoking. A further 77% supported a total ban on tobacco advertising, 74% the reimbursement of nicotine replacement therapies and 70% an increase in the price of cigarettes. A lower support was found for two non-evidence-based interventions total ban of tobacco sales (35%) and promotion of light cigarettes (22%). Never smokers, women, physically active subjects, teetotallers and subjects with lower educational level were more likely to favour stronger measures while no differences were found between age groups. Reimbursement of nicotine replacement therapies was favoured more by current smokers and inactive subjects. CONCLUSION: The vast majority of responders supported the recommended tobacco control policies. Opinions regarding specific interventions vary according to the policy and subjects' characteristics.