Três ensaios sobre o gasto local no Brasil: descentralização, eficiência e voto

Partindo de uma avaliação sobre o contexto mundial de descentralização fiscal e de democratização em que o Brasil se encontrava no final do século XX, essa tese apresenta na primeira parte uma análise empírica para países em desenvolvimento evidenciando o condicionamento do tipo de regime de governo na relação entre descentralização fiscal e tamanho de governo. Estimações por system-GMM para países em desenvolvimento mostram que existe um nível de descentralização fiscal, entre 20% e 30%, que uma vez superado, resulta em democracias com tamanhos de governos menores do que as ditaduras. Esses resultado, que chama a atenção tanto para os governos locais, como para a influência da democracia no gasto público, estimulou a continuação da pesquisa na avaliação da eficiência dos gastos municipais no Brasil e sua relação com o voto. Assim, no segundo ensaio, são calculados indicadores de evolução da eficiência e da produtividade do gasto municipal (fatores de Malmquist) entre 2004 e 2008, para as áreas da saúde e educação. Os resultados da análise por fronteira estocástica mostram que tanto na educação, como na saúde, houve avanços na fronteira de produção (TFPC, em média, de 18.7%, na educação e de 14.2% na saúde) por avanços de mudança técnica (Technical Change - TC), ao invés de elevação da eficiência (Technical Efficiency Change – TEC). No último ensaio, os indicadores de eficiência e de produtividade são usados para testar a hipótese de que o eleitor municipal premia com o voto os prefeitos que melhoraram a eficiência do gasto da educação e/ou saúde em sua gestão. Os resultados não rejeitam a hipótese para a educação, mas rejeitam para a saúde. A fim de tratar prováveis erros de medida das variáveis de produtividade, as estimações são instrumentalizadas em regressões por dois estágios.

O papel das emissoras educativas no Brasil em tempo de eleições

The concept of educational radio is present in the Brazilian Code of Broadcasting in 1963, valued by an Interministerial 1999.According to the Ministry of Communications, only 176 stations are considered educational universe of 3,000 existing radios in Brazil. In this context, the study proposes to establish a discussion on the educational experiences obtained from the radio, considering the Brazilian radio culture that favors concessions to trade groups and religious politicians. The challenge will be to move toward a program that combines educational content, entertainment, and thus ensures a common universe of communication skills enabling the adult radio listeners their actual interaction with the world around him. The methodology will work in the literature from texts on the subject, and the result of practical observations collected during visits to the broadcasters, programming and analysis.

Classes sociais e eleições presidenciais no Brasil contemporâneo (2002-2010)

This work aims to analyze, in terms of class, the social composition of the constituency of the presidential candidates of the Workers Party in 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections. Such research object is constructed from a preliminary critical debate with recent Brazilian electoral studies, especially the literature on the infl uence of social programs on voting and Singer’s formulations about the lulismo phenomenon. Incorporating advances and pointing out gaps in such research efforts, is formulated a roadmap for empirical research constituted of three key elements - the measure ment of the dimensions of class structure in Brazilian capitalism; the observation of material interests related to the constituents locations of such structure; the development of measures of association between the insertion in class groupings and indivi dual voting behavior. Based on the neo - Marxist approach of class analysis, especially as formulated by Wright, it is made an adaptation of the typology formulated by such approach (mainly developed by Santos to the Brazilian case) to the data available fro m databases of censuses of 2000 and 2010. This theoretical construct reveals that during the period considered for the analysis, the structure of class - relations in Brazil became more proletarized and consequently had a decrease of the dimensions of the de stitute class locations. In addition, it was found, in relation to the objective class interests, widespread increments of economic welfare that allowed advances in relation to the material conditions of the proletariat, without, however, incurring losses to the privileged class positions. Such changes in the structural sphere focused in various ways on the political arena. Based on an adaptation to electoral analysis of the concept of "class formation", also formulated by Wright, associated with the use of techniques of ecological inference (especially those proposed by King and associates), it was possible to draw up an overview of class voting in period studied. As main results, three general patterns of individual voting behavior, related to each of the three analyzed class groupings were identified - a contraposition against PT candidates, by voters in privileged class locations; the adhesion, recurring throughout the study period, of workers to Lula and Dilma Rousseff; a favorable electoral shift unde rtaken by economically deprived voters in favor of those candidatures in the 2006 election.