986 resultados para Predictive values


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Objectives This study was designed to evaluate bowel diameter as a predictor of adverse outcome in isolated fetal gastroschisis Methods Retrospective study involving 94 singleton pregnancies Ultrasound measurements of herniated bowel transverse diameter (BTD) were performed up to 3 weeks before delivery Adverse outcome was intrauterine/neonatal death and/or bowel complications Results Last BTD was recorded at 35 6 +/- 1 6 weeks and mean interval to delivery was 6 2 +/- 5 0 days Intrauterine/neonatal death occurred in 10 (10 6%) cases, bowel complications were observed in 8 (8 5%) BTD >= 15, >= 20, >= 25, and >= 30 mm were found in 87, 46, 13, and 4% of pregnancies with a favorable outcome. respectively BTD >= 25 mm sensitivity was 38%. and positive and negative predictive values were 38 and 87% For BTD >= 30 mm. the values were 19, 50, and 85% Observed/expected BTD ROC curve showed an area of 0 67, best cut-off value at 1 39, prediction values were similar to those for BTD >= 25 mm Bowel dilatation was also significantly associated with lower rate of primary surgical closure. longer period to full oral feeding, and prolonged hospital stay Conclusions Bowel dilatation demonstrated up to 3 weeks before delivery is a predictor of intestinal complications and is associated with lower late of primary surgical closure, longer period to achieve full oral feeding. and hospital stay Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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Objective To determine accuracy of first trimester detection of single umbilical artery (SUA). Methods The number of vessels in the umbilical cord was examined in a prospective cohort of 779 singleton, low-risk, unselected pregnancies, in the first (11-13 weeks) and second (17-24 weeks) trimesters, using both power and color Doppler and after delivery, by placental histopathologic exam. Concordance between first and second trimester findings to postnatal diagnoses was compared by calculating kappa coefficients. Results There was medium concordance between the findings in the first trimester and the postnatal diagnoses (kappa = 0.52) and high concordance (kappa = 0.89) for the second trimester scan. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the findings in the first trimester were 57.1, 98.9, 50.0 and 99.2% and for the second trimester were 86.6, 99.9, 92.9 and 99.7%. Conclusion Sensitivity and positive predictive value of first trimester scan to identify an isolated SUA in a prospective unselected population was poor. Diagnosis of isolated SUA as well as a definitive judgment about the presence of associated anomalies would still require a scan in the second trimester. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Objective: To evaluate the precision of three-dimensional ultrasonography (3DUS) in estimating the ipsilateral lung volume and the potential of this measurement to predict neonatal death in congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods: Between January 2002 and December 2004, the ipsilateral lung volumes were assessed by 3DUS using the technique of rotation of the multiplan imaging in 39 fetuses with CDH. The observed/ expected ipsilateral lung volume ratios (o/e-IpsiFLVR) were compared to the lung/head ratios (LHR) and to the observed/ expected total fetal lung volume ratios (o/e-TotFLVR) as well as to postnatal death. Results: Ipsilateral lung volumes (median 0.12, range 0.01-0.66) were more reduced than the total lung volumes (median 0.52, range 0.11-0.95, p < 0.001) in CDH. The bias and precision of 3DUS in estimating ipsilateral lung volumes were -0.61 and 0.99 cm 3, respectively, with absolute limits of agreement from -2.56 to +1.33 cm(3). The o/e-IpsiFLVR was lower in neonatal death cases (median 0.09, range 0.01-0.46) than in survivals (median 0.18, range 0.01-0.66), but this difference was not statistically significance (p > 0.05). The sensitivity, speci-ficity, (positive and negative) predictive values and accuracy of o/e-IpsiFLVR in predicting neonatal death was 52.6% (10/19), 83.3% (10/12), 83.3% (10/12), 52.6% (10/19) and 64.5% (20/31), respectively. Conclusion: Although the ipsilateral lung volume can be measured by 3DUS, it cannot be used to predict neonatal death when considering it alone. However, it is important to measure it to calculate the total fetal lung volumes as the o/e-TotFLVR has the best efficacy in predicting neonatal death in isolated CDH. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Purpose To assess the cost effectiveness of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in patients with Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) with unconfirmed complete remission (CRu) or partial remission (PR) after first-line treatment. Patients and Methods One hundred thirty patients with HL were prospectively studied. After treatment, all patients with CRu/PR were evaluated with FDG-PET. In addition, PET-negative patients were evaluated with standard follow-up, and PET-positive patients were evaluated with biopsies of the positive lesions. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Cost effectiveness was determined by evaluating projected annual economic impact of strategies without and with FDG-PET on HL management. Results After treatment, CRu/PR was observed in 50 (40.0%) of the 127 patients; the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of FDG-PET were 100%, 92.0%, 92.3%, and 100%, respectively (accuracy of 95.9%). Local restaging costs without PET were $350,050 compared with $283,262 with PET, a 19% decrease. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is -$3,268 to detect one true case. PET costs represented 1% of total costs of HL treatment. Simulated costs in the 974 patients registered in the 2008 Brazilian public health care database showed that the strategy including restaging PET would have a total program cost of $56,498,314, which is $516,942 less than without restaging PET, resulting in a 1% cost saving. Conclusion FDG-PET demonstrated 95.9% accuracy in restaging for patients with HL with CRu/PR after first-line therapy. Given the observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost effective and would reduce costs for the public health care program in Brazil.

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Objective: To evaluate the validity and applicability of the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) used by family medicine residents in primary health care (PHC) in Brazil. Methods: Training for administrating the MINI was given as part of a broad psychiatry education program. Interviews were held with 120 PHC patients who were at least 15 years old. MINI was administered by 25 resident physicians, while the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnosis (SCID) was administered by a psychiatrist blind to patients` results on the MINI, and the diagnoses on both interviews were compared. The resident physicians answered questions on the applicability of the MINI. Results: Concordance levels for any mental disorder, the broader current diagnostic categories and the most common specific diagnoses were analyzed. Kappa coefficients ranged between 0.65 and 0.85; sensitivity, between 0.75 and 0.92; specificity, between 0.90 and 0.99; positive predictive values (PPV), between 0.60 and 0.86; negative predictive values (NPV), between 0.92 and 0.99; and accuracy, between 0.88 and 0.98. The resident physicians considered MINI comprehensibility and clinical relevance satisfactory. Conclusions: These good psychometric results in a real-world setting may be related to a special training program, which is more frequent, intensive and diversified. In these conditions, the MINI is a useful tool for general practitioners. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Objective: Clinical evaluation of the stomatognathic system is indispensable for the diagnosis of orofacial myofunctional disorders. In order to obtain a more precise diagnosis, the protocol of orofacial myofunctional evaluation with scores (OMES protocol) (Int. J. Pediatr. Otorhinolaryngol. 72 (2008) 367-375) was expanded in terms of number of items and scale amplitude. The proposal of this study is to describe the expanded OMES protocol (OMES-E) for the evaluation of children. Validity of the protocol, reliability of the examiners and agreement between them were analyzed, as also were the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the instrument. Methods: The sample consisted of videorecorded images of 50 children, 25 boys (mean age = 8.4 years, SD = 1.8) and 25 girls (mean age = 8.2 years, SD = 1.7) selected at random from 200 samples. Three speech therapists prepared for orofacial myofunctional evaluation participated as examiners (E). The OMES and OMES-E protocols were used for evaluation on different days. E1 evaluated all images, E2 analyzed children with recordings from 1 to 25 and E3 analyzed children with recordings from 26 to 50. The validity of OMES-E was analyzed by comparing the instrument to the OMES protocol using the Pearson correlation test complemented with the split-half reliability test (p < 0.05). The linear weighted Kappa coefficient of agreement (Kw`), the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and the prevalence of OMD were calculated. Results: There was a statistically significant correlation between the OMES and OMES-E protocols (0.79 > r < 0.94, p < 0.01) and a significant test-retest correlation with the OMES-E (0.75 > r < 0.86, p < 0.01), with a reliability range of 0.86-0.93. The correlation and reliability coefficients between examiners were: E1 x E2 (r = 0.74, 0.84), E1 x E3 (r = 0.70, 0.83) (p < 0.01). Kw` coefficients with moderate and good strength predominated. The OMES-E protocol presented mean sensitivity = 0.91, specificity = 0.77, positive predictive value = 0.87 and negative predictive value = 0.85. The mean prevalence of OMD was 0.58. Conclusion: The OMES-E protocol is valid and reliable for orofacial myofunctional evaluation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Purpose: To compare visual inspection (VI), radiographic examination (RX) and the laser fluorescence device DIAGNOdent (L), as well as their combinations in vitro regarding treatment decisions for occlusal surfaces. Methods: 72 extracted human permanent teeth (molars and premolars) were used. Treatment decisions were recorded by three calibrated examiners, and the options available were fissure sealant and conservative restoration. For validation of treatment decisions, the teeth were sectioned and examined in a stereomicroscope. Thereafter, dental slices were scanned and the images were edited to facilitate classification of existing carious lesions. Intra and inter-examiner reproducibility for the determination of treatment plans were calculated using Cohen`s kappa test (95%-CI). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the area under the ROC curve were also calculated. Results: VI and L provided on average the greatest intra- and inter-examiner reproducibility, respectively. Although the combination of diagnostic methods may decrease both intra- and inter examiners reproducibility, combination of VI, L and RX resulted in the greatest sensitivity, being statistically superior to RX and L. There was more inter-examiner agreement for the option of restorative treatment, while the use of sealants as a treatment option yielded the lowest values. Negative predictive values were numerically inferior to positive predictive values, indicating that the examiners preferred not to restore a carious tooth than to proceed operatively in an intact tooth. The combination of the three methods studied showed the best results in determining treatment plans for occlusal surfaces, when compared to the other types of exams. On the other hand, radiographic examination and laser fluorescence were less efficient when used alone.

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Objectives: (1) To establish test performance measures for Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission testing of 6-year-old children in a school setting; (2) To investigate whether Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission testing provides a more accurate and effective alternative to a pure tone screening plus tympanometry protocol. Methods: Pure tone screening, tympanometry and transient evoked otoacoustic emission data were collected from 940 subjects (1880 ears), with a mean age of 6.2 years. Subjects were tested in non-sound-treated rooms within 22 schools. Receiver operating characteristics curves along with specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and efficiency values were determined for a variety of transient evoked otoacoustic emission/pure tone screening/tympanometry comparisons. Results: The Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission failure rate for the group was 20.3%. The failure rate for pure tone screening was found to be 8.9%, whilst 18.6% of subjects failed a protocol consisting of combined pure tone screening and tympanometry results. In essence, findings from the comparison of overall Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission pass/fail with overall pure tone screening pass/fail suggested that use of a modified Rhode Island Hearing Assessment Project criterion would result in a very high probability that a child with a pass result has normal hearing (true negative). However, the hit rate was only moderate. Selection of a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) criterion set at greater than or equal to 1 dB appeared to provide the best test performance measures for the range of SNR values investigated. Test performance measures generally declined when tympanometry results were included, with the exception of lower false alarm rates and higher positive predictive values. The exclusion of low frequency data from the Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission SNR versus pure tone screening analysis resulted in improved performance measures. Conclusions: The present study poses several implications for the clinical implementation of Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission screening for entry level school children. Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission pass/fail criteria will require revision. The findings of the current investigation offer support to the possible replacement of pure tone screening with Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission testing for 6-year-old children. However, they do not suggest the replacement of the pure tone screening plus tympanometry battery. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Objective: To compare measurements of sleeping metabolic rate (SMR) in infancy with predicted basal metabolic rate (BMR) estimated by the equations of Schofield. Methods: Some 104 serial measurements of SMR by indirect calorimetry were performed in 43 healthy infants at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age. Predicted BMR was calculated using the weight only (BMR-wo) and weight and height (BMR-wh) equations of Schofield for 0-3-y-olds. Measured SMR values were compared with both predictive values by means of the Bland-Altman statistical test. Results: The mean measured SMR was 1.48 MJ/day. The mean predicted BMR values were 1.66 and 1.47 MJ/day for the weight only and weight and height equations, respectively. The Bland-Altman analysis showed that BMR-wo equation on average overestimated SMR by 0.18 MJ/day (11%) and the BMR-wh equation underestimated SMR by 0.01 MJ/day (1%). However the 95% limits of agreement were wide: - 0.64 to - 0.28MJ/day (28%) for the former equation and - 0.39 to +0.41 MJ/day (27%) for the latter equation. Moreover there was a significant correlation between the mean of the measured and predicted metabolic rate and the difference between them. Conclusions: The wide variation seen in the difference between measured and predicted metabolic rate and the bias probably with age indicates there is a need to measure actual metabolic rate for individual clinical care in this age group.

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Objectives: To examine associations between nutrition screening checklists and the health of older women. Design: Cross-sectional postal survey including measures of health and health service utilisation, as well as the Australian Nutrition Screening Initiative (ANSI), adapted from the Nutrition Screening Initiative (NSI). Setting: Australia, 1996. Subjects: In total, 12 939 women aged 70-75 years randomly selected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Results: Responses to individual items in the ANSI checklist, and ANSI and NSI scores, were associated with measures of health and health service utilisation. Women with high ANSI and NSI scores had poorer physical and mental health, higher health care utilisation and were less likely to be in the acceptable weight range. The performance of an unweighted score (TSI) was also examined and showed similar results. Whereas ANSI classified 30% of the women as 'high-risk', only 13% and 12% were classified as 'high-risk' by the NSI and TSI, respectively. However, for identifying women with body mass index outside the acceptable range, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values for all of these checklists were less than 60%. Conclusions: Higher scores on both the ANSI and NSI are associated with poorer health. The simpler unweighted method of scoring the ANSI (TSI) showed better discrimination for the identification of 'at risk' women than the weighted ANSI method. The predictive value of individual items and the checklist scores need to be examined longitudinally.

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Helicobacter pylori infection is common among adults with intellectual disability. The acceptabilities and accuracies of different diagnostic tests in this population are unknown. We aimed to determine (i) patient acceptability and (ii) performance characteristics of serology, fecal-antigen, and urea breath tests among adults with intellectual disability. One hundred sixty-eight such adults underwent H. pylori testing with serology and fecal-antigen tests, and a portion underwent treatment. One year later, the participants were retested with fecal-antigen, serology, and urea breath tests. The numbers of specimens obtained and difficulties in collection reported by caregivers were noted. Test performance characteristics were assessed among participants and 65 of their caregivers, using serology as the reference. All participants provided at least one specimen, despite reported collection difficulties for 23% of fecal and 27% of blood specimens. Only 25% of the participants provided breath specimens; failure to perform this test was associated with lower intellectual ability and higher maladaptive behavior. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the fecal test (baseline and 12 months versus caregivers) were 70 and 63 versus 81, 93 and 95 versus 98, 96 and 92 versus 93, and 53 and 74 versus 93%, respectively; those of the urea breath test (12 months versus caregivers) were 86 versus 100, 88 versus 95, 75 versus 89, and 94 versus 100%, respectively. With assistance, fecal or blood specimens for H. pylori assessment can be provided by most patients with intellectual disability regardless of their level of function or behavior. Only those with greater ability can perform the urea breath test. Using serology as the reference test, the limitations of performance characteristics of the fecal-antigen and urea breath tests are similar to those among a control group of caregivers.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of the rubella suspect case definition among patients with rash diseases seen at primary care units. METHODS: From January 1994 to December 2002, patients with acute rash, with or without fever, were seen at two large primary health care units and at a public general hospital in the municipality of Niterói, metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data from clinical and serologic assessment were used to estimate the positive predictive values of the definition of rubella suspect case from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and other combination of signs/symptoms taking serologic status as the reference. Serum samples were tested for anti-rubella virus IgM using commercially available enzyme immunoassays. Positive predictive values and respective 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 1,186 patients with an illness characterized by variable combinations of rash with fever, arthropathy and lymphadenopathy were studied. Patients with rash, regardless of other signs and symptoms, had 8.8% likelihood of being IgM-positive for rubella. The Brazilian suspect case definition (fever and lymphadenopathy in addition to rash) had low predictive value (13.5%). This case definition would correctly identify 42.3% of the IgM-positive cases, and misclassify 26.1% of the IgM-negative cases. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the recommendation to investigate and collect clinical specimens for laboratory diagnosis of all cases of rash, for surveillance purposes. Although this strategy may increase costs, the benefits of interrupting the circulation of rubella virus and preventing the occurrence of congenital rubella syndrome should pay off.

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OBJECTIVE: To validate a new symphysis-fundal curve for screening fetal growth deviations and to compare its performance with the standard curve adopted by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS: Observational study including a total of 753 low-risk pregnant women with gestational age above 27 weeks between March to October 2006 in the city of João Pessoa, Northeastern Brazil. Symphisys-fundal was measured using a standard technique recommended by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Estimated fetal weight assessed through ultrasound using the Brazilian fetal weight chart for gestational age was the gold standard. A subsample of 122 women with neonatal weight measurements was taken up to seven days after estimated fetal weight measurements and symphisys-fundal classification was compared with Lubchenco growth reference curve as gold standard. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated. The McNemar χ2 test was used for comparing sensitivity of both symphisys-fundal curves studied. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the new curve for detecting small for gestational age fetuses was 51.6% while that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health reference curve was significantly lower (12.5%). In the subsample using neonatal weight as gold standard, the sensitivity of the new reference curve was 85.7% while that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health was 42.9% for detecting small for gestational age. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic performance of the new curve for detecting small for gestational age fetuses was significantly higher than that of the Brazilian Ministry of Health reference curve.

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OBJECTIVE To validate a screening instrument using self-reported assessment of frailty syndrome in older adults.METHODS This cross-sectional study used data from the Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento study conducted in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil. The sample consisted of 433 older adult individuals (≥ 75 years) assessed in 2009. The self-reported instrument can be applied to older adults or their proxy respondents and consists of dichotomous questions directly related to each component of the frailty phenotype, which is considered the gold standard model: unintentional weight loss, fatigue, low physical activity, decreased physical strength, and decreased walking speed. The same classification proposed in the phenotype was utilized: not frail (no component identified); pre-frail (presence of one or two components), and frail (presence of three or more components). Because this is a screening instrument, “process of frailty” was included as a category (pre-frail and frail). Cronbach’s α was used in psychometric analysis to evaluate the reliability and validity of the criterion, the sensitivity, the specificity, as well as positive and negative predictive values. Factor analysis was used to assess the suitability of the proposed number of components.RESULTS Decreased walking speed and decreased physical strength showed good internal consistency (α = 0.77 and 0.72, respectively); however, low physical activity was less satisfactory (α = 0.63). The sensitivity and specificity for identifying pre-frail individuals were 89.7% and 24.3%, respectively, while those for identifying frail individuals were 63.2% and 71.6%, respectively. In addition, 89.7% of the individuals from both the evaluations were identified in the “process of frailty” category.CONCLUSIONS The self-reported assessment of frailty can identify the syndrome among older adults and can be used as a screening tool. Its advantages include simplicity, rapidity, low cost, and ability to be used by different professionals.

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A passive haemagglutination test (PHA) for human neurocysticercosis was standardized and evaluated for the detection of specific antibodies to Cysticercus cellulosae in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). For the assay, formaldehyde-treated group O Rh-human red cells coated with the cysticerci crude total saline extract (TS) antigen were employed. A total of 115 CSF samples from patients with neurocysticercosis was analysed, of these 94 presented reactivity, corresponding to 81.7% sensitivity, in which confidence limit of 95% probability (CL95%) ranged from 74.5% to 88.9%. Eighty-nine CSF samples derived from individuals of control group presented as nonreactive in 94.4% (CL95% from 89.6% to 99.2%). The positive and negative predictive values were 1.4% and 99.9%, respectively, considering the mean rate of that this assay provide a rapid, highly reproducible, and moderately sensitive mean of detecting specific antibodies in CSF samples.