Real time optimization (RTO) with model predictive control (MPC)

This paper studies a simplified methodology to integrate the real time optimization (RTO) of a continuous system into the model predictive controller in the one layer strategy. The gradient of the economic objective function is included in the cost function of the controller. Optimal conditions of the process at steady state are searched through the use of a rigorous non-linear process model, while the trajectory to be followed is predicted with the use of a linear dynamic model, obtained through a plant step test. The main advantage of the proposed strategy is that the resulting control/optimization problem can still be solved with a quadratic programming routine at each sampling step. Simulation results show that the approach proposed may be comparable to the strategy that solves the full economic optimization problem inside the MPC controller where the resulting control problem becomes a non-linear programming problem with a much higher computer load. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimizing model predictive control of an industrial distillation column

The main scope of this work is the implementation of an MPC that integrates the control and the economic optimization of the system. The two problems are solved simultaneously through the modification of the control cost function that includes an additional term related to the economic objective. The optimizing MPC is based on a quadratic program (QP) as the conventional MPC and can be solved with the available QP solvers. The method was implemented in an industrial distillation system, and the results show that the approach is efficient and can be used, in several practical cases. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust model predictive controller with output feedback and target tracking

A model predictive controller (MPC) is proposed, which is robustly stable for some classes of model uncertainty and to unknown disturbances. It is considered as the case of open-loop stable systems, where only the inputs and controlled outputs are measured. It is assumed that the controller will work in a scenario where target tracking is also required. Here, it is extended to the nominal infinite horizon MPC with output feedback. The method considers an extended cost function that can be made globally convergent for any finite input horizon considered for the uncertain system. The method is based on the explicit inclusion of cost contracting constraints in the control problem. The controller considers the output feedback case through a non-minimal state-space model that is built using past output measurements and past input increments. The application of the robust output feedback MPC is illustrated through the simulation of a low-order multivariable system.

Stable Model Predictive Control for Integrating Systems with Optimizing Targets

This paper concern the development of a stable model predictive controller (MPC) to be integrated with real time optimization (RTO) in the control structure of a process system with stable and integrating outputs. The real time process optimizer produces Optimal targets for the system inputs and for Outputs that Should be dynamically implemented by the MPC controller. This paper is based oil a previous work (Comput. Chem. Eng. 2005, 29, 1089) where a nominally stable MPC was proposed for systems with the conventional control approach where only the outputs have set points. This work is also based oil the work of Gonzalez et at. (J. Process Control 2009, 19, 110) where the zone control of stable systems is studied. The new control for is obtained by defining ail extended control objective that includes input targets and zone controller the outputs. Additional decision variables are also defined to increase the set of feasible solutions to the control problem. The hard constraints resulting from the cancellation of the integrating modes Lit the end of the control horizon are softened,, and the resulting control problem is made feasible to a large class of unknown disturbances and changes of the optimizing targets. The methods are illustrated with the simulated application of the proposed,approaches to a distillation column of the oil refining industry.

Robust model predictive control with zone control

Model predictive control (MPC) is usually implemented as a control strategy where the system outputs are controlled within specified zones, instead of fixed set points. One strategy to implement the zone control is by means of the selection of different weights for the output error in the control cost function. A disadvantage of this approach is that closed-loop stability cannot be guaranteed, as a different linear controller may be activated at each time step. A way to implement a stable zone control is by means of the use of an infinite horizon cost in which the set point is an additional variable of the control problem. In this case, the set point is restricted to remain inside the output zone and an appropriate output slack variable is included in the optimisation problem to assure the recursive feasibility of the control optimisation problem. Following this approach, a robust MPC is developed for the case of multi-model uncertainty of open-loop stable systems. The controller is devoted to maintain the outputs within their corresponding feasible zone, while reaching the desired optimal input target. Simulation of a process of the oil re. ning industry illustrates the performance of the proposed strategy.

The effects of prepulse-blink reflex trial repetition and prepulse change on blink reflex modification at short and long lead intervals

Prepulse inhibition and facilitation of the blink reflex are said to reflect different responses elicited by the lead stimulus, transient detection and orienting response respectively. Two experiments investigated the effects of trial repetition and lead stimulus change on blink modification. It was hypothesized that these manipulations will affect orienting and thus blink facilitation to a greater extent than they will affect transient detection and thus blink inhibition. In Experiment 1 (N = 64), subjects were trained with a sequence of 12 lead stimulus and 12 blink stimulus alone presentations, and 24 lead stimulus-blink stimulus pairings. Lead interval was 120 ms for 12 of the trials and 2000 ms for the other 12. For half the subjects this sequence was followed by a change in pitch of the lead stimulus. In Experiment 2 (N = 64), subjects were trained with a sequence of 36 blink alone stimuli and 36 lead stimulus-blink stimulus pairings. The lead interval was 120 ms for half the subjects and 2000 ms for the other half. The pitch of the lead stimulus on prestimulus trials 31-33 was changed for half the subjects in each group. In both experiments, the amount of blink inhibition decreased during training whereas the amount of blink facilitation remained unchanged. Lead stimulus change had no effect on blink modification in either experiment although it resulted in enhanced skin conductance responses and greater heart rate deceleration in Experiment 2. The present results are not consistent with the notion that blink facilitation is linked to orienting whereas blink inhibition reflects a transient detection mechanism. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

The critical power function is dependent on the duration of the predictive exercise tests chosen

The linear relationship between work accomplished (W-lim) and time to exhaustion (t(lim)) can be described by the equation: W-lim = a + CP.t(lim). Critical power (CP) is the slope of this line and is thought to represent a maximum rate of ATP synthesis without exhaustion, presumably an inherent characteristic of the aerobic energy system. The present investigation determined whether the choice of predictive tests would elicit significant differences in the estimated CP. Ten female physical education students completed, in random order and on consecutive days, five art-out predictive tests at preselected constant-power outputs. Predictive tests were performed on an electrically-braked cycle ergometer and power loadings were individually chosen so as to induce fatigue within approximately 1-10 mins. CP was derived by fitting the linear W-lim-t(lim) regression and calculated three ways: 1) using the first, third and fifth W-lim-t(lim) coordinates (I-135), 2) using coordinates from the three highest power outputs (I-123; mean t(lim) = 68-193 s) and 3) using coordinates from the lowest power outputs (I-345; mean t(lim) = 193-485 s). Repeated measures ANOVA revealed that CPI123 (201.0 +/- 37.9W) > CPI135 (176.1 +/- 27.6W) > CPI345 (164.0 +/- 22.8W) (P < 0.05). When the three sets of data were used to fit the hyperbolic Power-t(lim) regression, statistically significant differences between each CP were also found (P < 0.05). The shorter the predictive trials, the greater the slope of the W-lim-t(lim) regression; possibly because of the greater influence of 'aerobic inertia' on these trials. This may explain why CP has failed to represent a maximal, sustainable work rate. The present findings suggest that if CP is to represent the highest power output that an individual can maintain for a very long time without fatigue then CP should be calculated over a range of predictive tests in which the influence of aerobic inertia is minimised.

Predictors of local recurrence after treatment of ductal carcinoma in situ - A meta-analysis

lBACKGROUND. Management of patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is a dilemma, as mastectomy provides nearly a 100% cure rate but at the expense of physical and psychologic morbidity. It would be helpful if we could predict which patients with DCIS are at sufficiently high risk of local recurrence after conservative surgery (CS) alone to warrant postoperative radiotherapy (RT) and which patients are at sufficient risk of local recurrence after CS + RT to warrant mastectomy. The authors reviewed the published studies and identified the factors that may be predictive of local recurrence after management by mastectomy, CS alone, or CS + RT. METHODS. The authors examined patient, tumor, and treatment factors as potential predictors for local recurrence and estimated the risks of recurrence based on a review of published studies. They examined the effects of patient factors (age at diagnosis and family history), tumor factors (sub-type of DCIS, grade, tumor size, necrosis, and margins), and treatment (mastectomy, CS alone, and CS + RT). The 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the recurrence rates for each of the studies were calculated for subtype, grade, and necrosis, using the exact binomial; the summary recurrence rate and 95% CI for each treatment category were calculated by quantitative meta-analysis using the fixed and random effects models applied to proportions. RESULTS, Meta-analysis yielded a summary recurrence rate of 22.5% (95% CI = 16.9-28.2) for studies employing CS alone, 8.9% (95% CI = 6.8-11.0) for CS + RT, and 1.4% (95% CI = 0.7-2.1) for studies involving mastectomy alone. These summary figures indicate a clear and statistically significant separation, and therefore outcome, between the recurrence rates of each treatment category, despite the likelihood that the patients who underwent CS alone were likely to have had smaller, possibly low grade lesions with clear margins. The patients with risk factors of presence of necrosis, high grade cytologic features, or comedo subtype were found to derive the greatest improvement in local control with the addition of RT to CS. Local recurrence among patients treated by CS alone is approximately 20%, and one-half of the recurrences are invasive cancers. For most patients, RT reduces the risk of recurrence after CS alone by at least 50%. The differences in local recurrence between CS alone and CS + RT are most apparent for those patients with high grade tumors or DCIS with necrosis, or of the comedo subtype, or DCIS with close or positive surgical margins. CONCLUSIONS, The authors recommend that radiation be added to CS if patients with DCIS who also have the risk factors for local recurrence choose breast conservation over mastectomy. The patients who may be suitable for CS alone outside of a clinical trial may be those who have low grade lesions with little or no necrosis, and with clear surgical margins. Use of the summary statistics when discussing outcomes with patients may help the patient make treatment decisions. Cancer 1999;85:616-28. (C) 1999 American Cancer Society.

Sporadic and familial pheochromocytomas are associated with loss of at least two discrete intervals on chromosome 1p

Pheochromocytomas are tumors of the adrenal medulla originating in the chromaffin cells derived from the neural crest. Ten % of these tumors are associated with the familial cancer syndromes multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2, von Hippel-Lindau disease (VHL), and rarely, neurofibromatosis type 1, in which germ-line mutations have been identified in RET, VHL, and NF1, respectively. In both the sporadic and familial forms of pheochromocytoma, allelic loss at 1p, 3p, 17p, and 22q has been reported, yet the molecular pathogenesis of these tumors is largely unknown. Allelic loss at chromosome 1p has also been reported in other endocrine tumors, such as medullary thyroid cancer and tumors of the parathyroid gland, as well as in tumors of neural crest origin including neuroblastoma and malignant melanoma, In this study, we performed fine structure mapping of deletions at chromosome 1p in familial and sporadic pheochromocytomas to identify discrete regions likely housing tumor suppressor genes involved in the development of these tumors. Ten microsatellite markers spanning a region of similar to 70 cM (Ipter to 1p34.3) were used to screen 20 pheochromocytomas from 19 unrelated patients for loss of heterozygosity (LOH). LOH was detected at five or more loci in 8 of 13 (61%)sporadic samples and at five or more loci in four of five (80%) tumor samples from patients with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2. No LOH at 1p was detected in pheochromocytomas from two VHL patients, Analysis of the combined sporadic and familial tumor data suggested three possible regions of common somatic loss, designated as PCI (D1S243 to D1S244), PC2 (D1S228 to D1S507), and PC3 (D1S507 toward the centromere). We propose that chromosome Ip may be the site of at least three putative tumor suppressor loci involved in the tumorigenesis of pheochromocytomas. At least one of these loci, PC2 spanning an interval of <3.8 cM, is Likely to have a broader role in the development of endocrine malignancies.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Long-Term Prospective, Randomized, Controlled Study Using Repetitive Education at Six-Month Intervals and Monitoring for Adherence in Heart Failure Outpatients The REMADHE Trial

Background-The effectiveness of heart failure disease management proarams in patients under cardiologists` care over long-term follow-up is not established. Methods and Results-We investigated the effects of a disease management program with repetitive education and telephone monitoring on primary (combined death or unplanned first hospitalization and quality-of-life changes) and secondary end points (hospitalization, death, and adherence). The REMADHE [Repetitive Education and Monitoring for ADherence for Heart Failure] trial is a long-term randomized, prospective, parallel trial designed to compare intervention with control. One hundred seventeen patients were randomized to usual care, and 233 to additional intervention. The mean follow-up was 2.47 +/- 1.75 years, with 54% adherence to the program. In the intervention group, the primary end point composite of death or unplanned hospitalization was reduced (hazard ratio, 0.64; confidence interval, 0.43 to 0.88; P=0.008), driven by reduction in hospitalization. The quality-of-life questionnaire score improved only in the intervention group (P<0.003). Mortality was similar in both groups. Number of hospitalizations (1.3 +/- 1.7 versus 0.8 +/- 1.3, P<0.0001), total hospital days during the follow-up (19.9 +/- 51 versus 11.1 +/- 24 days, P<0.0001), and the need for emergency visits (4.5 +/- 10.6 versus 1.6 +/- 2.4, P<0.0001) were lower in the intervention group. Beneficial effects were homogeneous for sex, race, diabetes and no diabetes, age, functional class, and etiology. Conclusions-For a longer follow-up period than in previous studies, this heart failure disease management program model of patients under the supervision of a cardiologist is associated with a reduction in unplanned hospitalization, a reduction of total hospital days, and a reduced need for emergency care, as well as improved quality of life, despite modest program adherence over time. (Circ Heart Fail. 2008;1:115-124.)

Glycemia and prognosis of patients with chronic heart failure-Subanalysis of the Long-term Prospective Randomized Controlled Study Using Repetitive Education at Six-Month Intervals and Monitoring for Adherence in Heart Failure Outpatients (REMADHE) trial

Background Heart failure and diabetes often occur simultaneously in patients, but the prognostic value of glycemia in chronic heart failure is debatable. We evaluated the role of glycemia on prognosis of heart failure. Methods Outpatients with chronic heart failure from the Long-term Prospective Randomized Controlled Study Using Repetitive Education at Six-Month Intervals and Monitoring for Adherence in Heart Failure Outpatients (REMADHE) trial were grouped according to the presence of diabetes and level of glycemia. All-cause mortality/heart transplantation and unplanned hospital admission were evaluated. Results Four hundred fifty-six patients were included (135 [29.5%] female, 124 [27.2%] with diabetes mellitus, age of w50.2 +/- 11.4 years, and left-ventricle ejection fraction of 34.7% +/- 10.5%). During follow-up (3.6 +/- 2.2 years), 27 (5.9%) patients were submitted to heart transplantation and 202 (44.2%) died; survival was similar in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. When patients with and without diabetes were categorized according to glucose range (glycemia <= 100 mg/dL [5.5 mmol/L]), as well as when distributed in quintiles of glucose, the survival was significantly worse among patients with lower levels of glycemia. This finding persisted in Cox proportional hazards regression model that included gender, etiology, left ventricle ejection fraction, left ventricle diastolic diameter, creatinine level and beta-blocker therapy, and functional status (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.09-1.69, P = .039). No difference regarding unplanned hospital admission was found. Conclusion We report on an inverse association between glycemia and mortality in outpatients with chronic heart failure. These results point to a new pathophysiologic understanding of the interactions between diabetes mellitus, hyperglycemia, and heart disease. (Am Heart J 2010; 159: 90-7.)

Predictive value for malignancy in the finding of microcalcifications on ultrasonography of thyroid nodules

Background. The am of this study was to determine the predictive value for malignancy of microcalcifications determined by ultrasonography in thyroid nodules. Methods. One hundred seventy-seven nodules were prospectively studied by ultrasonography and compared with their fine-needle aspirative biopsy. The association between the presence and type of calcification and cytologic findings was verified through the chi-square test or likelihood ratio. Results. Thirty nodules showed calcification, of which 17 had fine calcifications, 3 had fine and gross calcifications, and 10 had only coarse calcification. Seven (41.18%) of 17 fine calcified nodules were malignant on cytology, 8 (47.06%) were benign, 1 (5,88%) was indeterminate, and 1 was suspect for malignancy. We found statistical significance between the presence of fine calcifications and malignancy (p =.001) and, in the 13 malignant nodule group, 8 (61.50%) had fine calcifications. Conclusion. This study suggests that microcalcifications were highly specific for malignancy and were present in 61% of the malignant nodules. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.