Seasonal Analyses of Air Pollution and Mortality in 100 U.S. Cities

Time series models relating short-term changes in air pollution levels to daily mortality counts typically assume that the effects of air pollution on the log relative rate of mortality do not vary with time. However, these short-term effects might plausibly vary by season. Changes in the sources of air pollution and meteorology can result in changes in characteristics of the air pollution mixture across seasons. The authors develop Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical models for estimating time-varying effects of pollution on mortality in multi-site time series studies. The methods are applied to the updated National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study database for the period 1987--2000, which includes data for 100 U.S. cities. At the national level, a 10 micro-gram/m3 increase in PM(10) at lag 1 is associated with a 0.15 (95% posterior interval: -0.08, 0.39),0.14 (-0.14, 0.42), 0.36 (0.11, 0.61), and 0.14 (-0.06, 0.34) percent increase in mortality for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. An analysis by geographical regions finds a strong seasonal pattern in the northeast (with a peak in summer) and little seasonal variation in the southern regions of the country. These results provide useful information for understanding particle toxicity and guiding future analyses of particle constituent data.

MORTALITY IN THE MEDICARE POPULATION AND CHRONIC EXPOSURE TO FINE PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION

Prospective cohort studies have provided evidence on longer-term mortality risks of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but due to their complexity and costs, only a few have been conducted. By linking monitoring data to the U.S. Medicare system by county of residence, we developed a retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), comprising over 20 million enrollees in the 250 largest counties during 2000-2002. We estimated log-linear regression models having as outcome the age-specific mortality rate for each county and as the main predictor, the average level for the study period 2000. Area-level covariates were used to adjust for socio-economic status and smoking. We reported results under several degrees of adjustment for spatial confounding and with stratification into by eastern, central and western counties. We estimated that a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM25 is associated with a 7.6% increase in mortality (95% CI: 4.4 to 10.8%). We found a stronger association in the eastern counties than nationally, with no evidence of an association in western counties. When adjusted for spatial confounding, the estimated log-relative risks drop by 50%. We demonstrated the feasibility of using Medicare data to establish cohorts for follow-up for effects of air pollution. Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a global public health problem (1). In developing countries, levels of airborne particles still reach concentrations at which serious health consequences are well-documented; in developed countries, recent epidemiologic evidence shows continued adverse effects, even though particle levels have declined in the last two decades (2-6). Increased mortality associated with higher levels of PM air pollution has been of particular concern, giving an imperative for stronger protective regulations (7). Evidence on PM and health comes from studies of acute and chronic adverse effects (6). The London Fog of 1952 provides dramatic evidence of the unacceptable short-term risk of extremely high levels of PM air pollution (8-10); multi-site time-series studies of daily mortality show that far lower levels of particles are still associated with short-term risk (5)(11-13). Cohort studies provide complementary evidence on the longer-term risks of PM air pollution, indicating the extent to which exposure reduces life expectancy. The design of these studies involves follow-up of cohorts for mortality over periods of years to decades and an assessment of mortality risk in association with estimated long-term exposure to air pollution (2-4;14-17). Because of the complexity and costs of such studies, only a small number have been conducted. The most rigorously executed, including the Harvard Six Cities Study and the American Cancer Society’s (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study II, have provided generally consistent evidence for an association of long- term exposure to particulate matter air pollution with increased all-cause and cardio-respiratory mortality (2,4,14,15). Results from these studies have been used in risk assessments conducted for setting the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM and for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to air pollution (18,19). Additional prospective cohort studies are necessary, however, to confirm associations between long-term exposure to PM and mortality, to broaden the populations studied, and to refine estimates by regions across which particle composition varies. Toward this end, we have used data from the U.S. Medicare system, which covers nearly all persons 65 years of age and older in the United States. We linked Medicare mortality data to (particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) air pollution monitoring data to create a new retrospective cohort study, the Medicare Air Pollution Cohort Study (MCAPS), consisting of 20 million persons from 250 counties and representing about 50% of the US population of elderly living in urban settings. In this paper, we report on the relationship between longer-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality risk over the period 2000 to 2002 in the MCAPS.

Effects of air pollution on asthma hospitalization rates in different age groups in metropolitan cities of Korea

Many studies have shown relationships between air pollution and the rate of hospital admissions for asthma. A few studies have controlled for age-specific effects by adding separate smoothing functions for each age group. However, it has not yet been reported whether air pollution effects are significantly different for different age groups. This lack of information is the motivation for this study, which tests the hypothesis that air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admissions are significantly different by age groups. Each air pollutant's effect on asthmatic hospital admissions by age groups was estimated separately. In this study, daily time-series data for hospital admission rates from seven cities in Korea from June 1999 through 2003 were analyzed. The outcome variable, daily hospital admission rates for asthma, was related to five air pollutants which were used as the independent variables, namely particulate matter <10 micrometers (μm) in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Meteorological variables were considered as confounders. Admission data were divided into three age groups: children (<15 years of age), adults (ages 15-64), and elderly (≥ 65 years of age). The adult age group was considered to be the reference group for each city. In order to estimate age-specific air pollution effects, the analysis was separated into two stages. In the first stage, Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with cubic spline for smoothing were applied to estimate the age-city-specific air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admission rates by city and age group. In the second stage, the Bayesian Hierarchical Model with non-informative prior which has large variance was used to combine city-specific effects by age groups. The hypothesis test showed that the effects of PM10, CO and NO2 were significantly different by age groups. Assuming that the air pollution effect for adults is zero as a reference, age-specific air pollution effects were: -0.00154 (95% confidence interval(CI)= (-0.0030,-0.0001)) for children and 0.00126 (95% CI = (0.0006, 0.0019)) for the elderly for PM 10; -0.0195 (95% CI = (-0.0386,-0.0004)) for children for CO; and 0.00494 (95% CI = (0.0028, 0.0071)) for the elderly for NO2. Relative rates (RRs) were 1.008 (95% CI = (1.000-1.017)) in adults and 1.021 (95% CI = (1.012-1.030)) in the elderly for every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10 , 1.019 (95% CI = (1.005-1.033)) in adults and 1.022 (95% CI = (1.012-1.033)) in the elderly for every 0.1 part per million (ppm) increase of CO; 1.006 (95%CI = (1.002-1.009)) and 1.019 (95%CI = (1.007-1.032)) in the elderly for every 1 part per billion (ppb) increase of NO2 and SO2, respectively. Asthma hospital admissions were significantly increased for PM10 and CO in adults, and for PM10, CO, NO2 and SO2 in the elderly.^

Air pollution data classification by SOM Neural Network

Over the last ten years, Salamanca has been considered among the most polluted cities in México. This paper presents a Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) Neural Network application to classify pollution data and automatize the air pollution level determination for Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) in Salamanca. Meteorological parameters are well known to be important factors contributing to air quality estimation and prediction. In order to observe the behavior and clarify the influence of wind parameters on the SO2 concentrations a SOM Neural Network have been implemented along a year. The main advantages of the SOM is that it allows to integrate data from different sensors and provide readily interpretation results. Especially, it is powerful mapping and classification tool, which others information in an easier way and facilitates the task of establishing an order of priority between the distinguished groups of concentrations depending on their need for further research or remediation actions in subsequent management steps. The results show a significative correlation between pollutant concentrations and some environmental variables.

Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.

Highway noise measurements for verification of prediction models. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Systems Development and Technology, Washington, D.C.

Ambient Air Pollution and Lung Cancer Risk in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Air pollution exposure and novel biomarkers of inflammation and cardiac stress in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Methylomic and Transcriptomic Insights Linking Air Pollution and Atherosclerosis

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities

Objective: To examine the short-term health effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney), where more than 50% of Australians reside. Methods: The study used a similar protocol to APHEA2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach) study and derived single-city and pooled estimates. Results: The results derived from the different approaches for the 1996-99 period showed consistent results for different statistical models used. There were significant effects on total mortality, (RR=1.0284 per 1 unit increase in nelphelometry [10(-4).m(-1)], RR=1.0011 per 1ppb increase in NO2), and on respiratory mortality (RR=1.0022 per 1ppb increase in O-2). No significant differences between cities were found, but the NO2 and particle effects may refer to the same impacts. Meta-analyses carried out for three cities yielded estimates for the increase in the daily total number of deaths of 0.2% (-0.8% to 1.2%) for a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM, concentration, and 0.9% (-0.7% to 2.5%) for a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM2.5 concentration. Conclusions: Air pollutants in Australian cities have significant effects on mortality.

The short-term effects of air pollution on hospital admissions in four Australian cities

Background. This paper examines the short-term health effects of air pollution on daily hospital admissions in Australian cities (those considered comprise more than 50% of the Australian population) for the period 1996-99. Methods: The study used a similar protocol to overseas studies and derived single city and pooled estimates using different statistical approaches to assess the accuracy of the results. Results: There was little difference between the results derived from the different statistical approaches for cardiovascular admissions, while in those for respiratory admissions there were differences. For three of the four cities (for the other the results were positive but not significant), fine particles (measured by nephelometry - bsp) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have a significant impact on cardiovascular admissions (for total cardiac admissions, RR=1.0856 for a one-unit increase in bsp (10(-4). m(-1)), RR=1.0023 for a 1 ppb increase in NO2). For three of the four cities (for the other, the results were negative and significant), fine particles, NO2 and ozone have a significant impact on respiratory admissions (for total elderly respiratory admissions, RR=1.0552 per 1 unit (10(-4).m(-1)) increase in bsp, RR=1.0027 per 1ppb increase in NO2, RR=10014 per 1 ppb increase in ozone for elderly asthma and COPD admissions). In all analyses the particle and NO2 impacts appear to be related. Conclusions: Similar to overseas studies, air pollution has an impact on hospital admissions in Australian cities, but there can be significant differences between cities.

Air Pollution and High Density Lipoprotein Structure and Function

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

LUNG CANCER IN NEPAL: THE ROLE OF TRADITIONAL TOBACCO PRODUCTS AND COMBUSTION RELATED HOUSEHOLD AIR POLLUTION

The burden of chronic diseases such as cancer is increasing in low and middle income countries around the globe. Nepal, one of the world’s poorest countries, is no exception to this trend, with lung cancer as the leading causes of cancer deaths. Despite this, limited data is available on the environmental and behavioral risk factors that contribute to the lung cancer etiology in Nepal. The objectives of this dissertation are to: 1) investigate the ethnic differences in consumption of local tobacco products and their role in lung cancer risk in Nepal; 2) evaluate urinary metabolite of 1,3-butadiene as a biomarker of exposure to combustion related household air pollution (CRHAP); 3) investigate the association between CRHAP exposure and lung cancer risk using urinary metabolite of 1,3-butadiene as a biomarker of exposure; 4) investigate the association between CRHAP exposure and lung cancer risk using questionnaire based measure of exposure. Lung cancer cases (n=606) and frequency matched controls (N=606) were recruited from B.P. Koirala Memorial Cancer Hospital. We obtained biological samples and information on lifestyles including cooking habits and type of fuels used. We used liquid chromatograph tandem mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS) to quantify urinary metabolites of 1,3-butadiene in urine samples. We employed a combination of logistic and linear regression models to detect any exposure-disease associations while controlling for known confounding variables. Overall, we found that ethnic groups in Nepal use different tobacco products that have different differing cancer potency -we observed the highest odds ratios for the traditional tobacco products. The biomarker analysis showed strong evidence that monohydroxybutyl mercapturic acid is associated with biomass fuel use among participants. However, we did not find significant association between urinary MHMBA and lung cancer risk. When we used questionnaire based measure of exposure to household air pollution, we observed significant, dose-response associations between CRHAP exposure and lung cancer risk, particularly among never-smokers. Our results show that important role of local tobacco products in lung cancer risk in Nepal. Furthermore, we demonstrate that CRHAP exposure is a risk factor for lung cancer risk, independent of tobacco smoking.

Air pollution levels measured at traffic hot spots : Brisbane urban corridor study

Air pollution levels were monitored continuously over a period of 4 weeks at four sampling sites along a busy urban corridor in Brisbane. The selected sites were representative of industrial and residential types of urban environment affected by vehicular traffic emissions. The concentration levels of submicrometer particle number, PM2.5, PM10, CO, and NOx were measured 5-10 meters from the road. Meteorological parameters and traffic flow rates were also monitored. The data were analysed in terms of the relationship between monitored pollutants and existing ambient air quality standards. The results indicate that the concentration levels of all pollutants exceeded the ambient air background levels, in certain cases by up to an order of magnitude. While the 24-hr average concentration levels did not exceed the standard, estimates for the annual averages were close to, or even higher than the annual standard levels.