Impact of a government triple zero awareness campaign on emergency department patient characteristics

Objective: To evaluate the impact of a government triple zero community awareness campaign on the characteristics of patients attending an ED. Methods: A study using Emergency Department Information System data was conducted in an adult metropolitan tertiary-referral teaching hospital in Brisbane. The three outcomes measured in the 3 month post-campaign period were arrival mode, Australasian Triage Scale and departure status. These measures reflect ambulance usage, clinical urgency and illness severity, respectively. They were compared with those in the 3 month pre-campaign period. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to investigate the impacts of the campaign on each of the three outcome measures after controlling for age, sex, day and time of arrival, and daily minimum temperature. Results: There were 17 920 visits in the pre- and 17 793 visits in the post-campaign period. After the campaign, fewer patients arrived at the ED by road ambulance (odds ratio [OR] 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.80–1.00), although the impact of the campaign on the arrival mode was only close to statistical significance (Wald χ2-test, P= 0.055); and patients were significantly less likely to have higher clinical urgency (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79–0.94), while more likely to be admitted (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.38–2.05) or complete treatment in the ED (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.23–1.73) instead of leaving without waiting to be seen. Conclusions: The campaign had no significant impact on the arrival mode of the patients. After the campaign, the illness acuity of the patients decreased, whereas the illness severity of the patients increased.

Melanopsin ganglion cell function in early age-related macular degeneration

Purpose Melanopsin-expressing retinal ganglion cells (mRGCs) have non-image forming functions including mediation of the pupil light reflex (PLR). There is limited knowledge about mRGC function in retinal disease. Initial retinal changes in age-related macular degeneration (AMD) occur in the paracentral region where mRGCs have their highest density, making them vulnerable during disease onset. In this cross-sectional clinical study, we measured the PLR to determine if mRGC function is altered in early stages of macular degeneration. Methods Pupil responses were measured in 8 early AMD patients (AREDS 2001 classification; mean age 72.6 ± 7.2 years, 5M, and 3F) and 12 healthy control participants (mean age 66.6 ± 6.1 years, 8M and 4F) using a custom-built Maxwellian-view pupillometer. Stimuli were 0.5 Hz sinewaves (10 s duration, 35.6° diameter) of short wavelength light (464nm, blue; retinal irradiance = 14.5 log quanta.cm-2.s-1) to produce high melanopsin excitation and of long wavelength light (638nm, red; retinal irradiance = 14.9 log quanta.cm-2.s-1), to bias activation to outer retina and provide a control. Baseline pupil diameter was determined during a 10 s pre-stimulus period. The post illumination pupil response (PIPR) was recorded for 40 s. The 6 s PIPR and maximum pupil constriction were expressed as percentage baseline (M ± SD). Results The blue PIPR was significantly less sustained (p<0.01) in the early AMD group (75.49 ± 7.88%) than the control group (58.28 ± 9.05%). The red PIPR was not significantly different (p>0.05) between the early AMD (84.79 ± 4.03%) and control groups (82.01 ± 5.86%). Maximum constriction amplitude in the early AMD group for blue (43.67 ± 6.35%) and red (48.64 ± 6.49%) stimuli were not significantly different to the control group for blue (39.94 ± 3.66%) and red (44.98 ± 3.15%) stimuli (p>0.05). Conclusions These results are suggestive of inner retinal mRGC deficits in early AMD. This non-invasive, objective measure of pupil responses may provide a new method for quantifying mRGC function and monitoring AMD progression.

Comparison of Radiation Doses for Catheter Ablation Procedures for Atrial Fibrillation with Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Cases

Background: Catheter ablation procedures for atrial fibrillation (AF) may frequently require long fluoroscopic times. We sought to undertake a review of radiation safety practice in our Cardiac Electrophysiology Laboratory and implement changes to minimize fluoroscopic doses. We also sought to compare the results with radiation doses for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) cases performed in our hospital. Methods: Fluoroscopic times and doses for AF ablation procedures performed by a single operator on a Philips Integris H3000 image-intensifier were analysed for 11-month period. Results were compared with all PCI procedures performed over a similar period by multiple operators on a Philips Integris Allura FD system. Comprehensive review of radiation practice in the Electrophysiology laboratory identified the potential to reduce pulse frame rates and doses, and to narrow the field of interest without impacting the performance of the procedure. These changes were implemented and results analysed after a further 11 months. Results: In the pre-intervention period 50 AF catheter ablations had a mean fluoroscopic time of 86.4 min and mean fluoroscopic dose 68.4 Gy/cm2. Post-intervention 75 procedures had a mean fluorosocopic time of 68.9 min (p < 0.0001) and mean dose of 14.3 Gy/cm2 (p < 0.0001) 128 PCI procedures had a mean combined fluoroscopic and image acquisition time of 10.0 min and mean total dose 38.8 Gy/cm2. Conclusions: Catheter ablation procedures for AF may require lengthy use of fluoroscopy but simple modifications to radiation practice can result in marked reductions in radiation dose that compare favourably with PCI case doses

Chronic and acute stress in atherosclerosis : the role of endothelial function and arterial elasticity

Atherosclerosis is the main underlying pathology of coronary heart disease. Coronary heart disease is a serious health problem in Finland, and it is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in industrialized countries. Psychological stress correlates with coronary heart disease events – myocardial infarction and sudden death, which are the most common clinical syndromes of atherosclerotic narrowing of arteries. The present series of studies examines the interaction between stress and endothelial function in relation to atherosclerosis. The study also aims to give new information on the mechanisms through which stress has its effect on atherosclerosis progression, focusing on possible relations between psychological stress and the functioning of the endothelium. Our project is based on data from one of the largest national epidemiological studies, the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study, which has monitored the development of risk factors for coronary heart disease in 3596 young adults since 1980. The present study combines experimental stress research with epidemiology and uses an advanced method for examining atherosclerosis development in healthy subjects (intima-media thickness ultrasound measurement). The physiological parameters used were heart rate, respiratory sinus arrhythmia and pre-ejection period. Chronic stress was assessed by vital exhaustion. The ultrasound measurements that served as the indexes of preclinical atherosclerosis were carotid intima-media thickness, brachial flow-mediated dilatation and carotid artery compliance. The effects of cardiovascular risk factors found to be important were taken into account: serum cholesterols level, triglyceride level, serum insulin level and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. There were 69, 1596, 81 and 1721 participants in studies I-IV, respectively. The results showed that both chronic and acute stress may exert an effect on atherosclerosis in subjects with impaired endothelial responses. The findings are consistent with the idea that risk factors are more harmful if the endothelium is not working properly. Chronic stress was found to be a risk if it has resulted in ineffective cardiac stress reactivity or delayed recovery. Men were shown to be at increased risk for atherosclerotic progression in early life, which suggests men’s decreased stress coping ability in relation to stressful psychosocial coronary risk factors. Autonomic imbalance may be the common mechanism of the stress influence on atherosclerosis development. The results of the present study contain background information for the identification the first stages of atherosclerosis, and they may be useful for preventive medicine programs for young adults and could help to improve cardiovascular health in Finland as well as in other countries.

Life history and host range of Alagoasa extrema (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae: Alticinae), a potential biological control agent of Lantana spp. (Verbenaceae) in Australia

The life history and host range of the lantana beetle, Alagoasa extrema, a potential biocontrol agent for Lantana spp. were investigated in a quarantine unit at the Alan Fletcher Research Station, Brisbane, Australia. Adults feed on leaves and females lay batches of about 17 eggs on the soil surface around the stems of plants. The eggs take 16 days to hatch and newly emerged larvae move up the stem to feed on young leaves. Larvae feed for about 23 days and there are three instars. There is a prepupal non-feeding stage that lasts about 12 days and the pupal stage, which occurs in a cocoon in the soil, lasts 16 days. Teneral adults remain in the cocoon for 3 days to harden prior to emergence. Males live for about 151 days while females live for about 127 days. The pre-oviposition period is 19 days. In no-choice larval feeding trials, nine plant species, representing three families, supported development to adult. Three species, Aloysia triphylla, Citharexylum spinosum and Pandorea pandorana were able to support at least two successive generations. These results confirm those reported in South Africa and suggest that A. extrema is not sufficiently specific for release in Australia. Furthermore, it is not recommended for release in any other country which is considering biological control of lantana.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Spatial and vertical heterogeneities in aerosol properties over oceanic regions around India: Implications for radiative forcing

The influence of atmospheric aerosols on Earth's radiation budget and hence climate, though well recognized and extensively investigated in recent years, remains largely uncertain mainly because of the large spatio-temporal heterogeneity and the lack of data with adequate resolution. To characterize this diversity, a major multi-platform field campaign ICARB (Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget) was carried out during the pre-monsoon period of 2006 over the Indian landmass and surrounding oceans, which was the biggest such campaign ever conducted over this region. Based on the extensive and concurrent measurements of the optical and physical properties of atmospheric aerosols during ICARB, the spatial distribution of aerosol radiative forcing was estimated over the entire Bay of Bengal (BoB), northern Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea (AS) as well as large spatial variations within these regions. Besides being considerably lower than the mean values reported earlier for this region, our studies have revealed large differences in the forcing components between the BoB and the AS. While the regionally averaged aerosol-induced atmospheric forcing efficiency was 31 +/- 6 W m(-2) tau(-1) for the BoB, it was only similar to 18 +/- 7 W m(-2) tau(-1) for the AS. Airborne measurements revealed the presence of strong, elevated aerosol layers even over the oceans, leading to vertical structures in the atmospheric forcing, resulting in significant warming in the lower troposphere. These observations suggest serious climate implications and raise issues ranging from the impact of aerosols on vertical thermal structure of the atmospheric and hence cloud formation processes to monsoon circulation.

Impact of a new mandatory reporting law on reporting and identification of child sexual abuse: A seven year time trend analysis

Child sexual abuse is widespread and difficult to detect. To enhance case identification, many societies have enacted mandatory reporting laws requiring designated professionals, most often police, teachers, doctors and nurses, to report suspected cases to government child welfare agencies. Little research has explored the effects of introducing a reporting law on the number of reports made, and the outcomes of those reports. This study explored the impact of a new legislative mandatory reporting duty for child sexual abuse in the State of Western Australia over seven years. We analysed data about numbers and outcomes of reports by mandated reporters, for periods before the law (2006-08) and after the law (2009-12). Results indicate that the number of reports by mandated reporters of suspected child sexual abuse increased by a factor of 3.7, from an annual mean of 662 in the three year pre-law period to 2448 in the four year post-law period. The increase in the first two post-law years was contextually and statistically significant. Report numbers stabilised in 2010-12, at one report per 210 children. The number of investigated reports increased threefold, from an annual mean of 451 in the pre-law period to 1363 in the post-law period. Significant decline in the proportion of mandated reports that were investigated in the first two post-law years suggested the new level of reporting and investigative need exceeded what was anticipated. However, a subsequent significant increase restored the pre-law proportion, suggesting systemic adaptive capacity. The number of substantiated investigations doubled, from an annual mean of 160 in the pre-law period to 327 in the post-law period, indicating twice as many sexually abused children were being identified.

Testing the efficacy of a chilli-tobacco rope fence as a deterrent against crop-raiding elephants

Chilli-based repellents have shown promise as deterrents against crop-raiding elephants in Africa. We experimented with ropes coated with chilli-based repellent as a cheap alternative to existing elephant cropraid deterrent methods in India. Three locations (Buxa Tiger Reserve, Wyanad Wildlife Sanctuary and Hosur Forest Division) representing varying rainfall regimes from high to low, and with histories of intense elephant-agriculture conflict, were selected for the experiments that were conducted over 2-3 months during the pre-harvest period of the kharif season in late 2006. Chilli and tobacco powder mixed with waste oil was applied to ropes strung around agricultural fields of 1.4-5.5 km perimeter and elephant approaches were monitored. Elephants breached the rope fences a few times at all three study sites. Female-led herds were far more deterred (practically 100% reduction) than were solitary males (c. 50%) by the chilli-tobacco rope. Efficacy of this method as a deterrent was significantly better in the low-rainfall regime relative to medium and high-rainfall regimes. The initial promising results present a case for more rigorous experimentation; these would help determine if the elephants avoiding the rope are responding physiologically to the chilli-tobacco smell or merely reacting cautiously to a novel substance in their environment.

Dung as a potential medium for inter-sexual chemical signaling in Asian elephants (Elephas maximus)

Chemical signaling is a prominent mode of male-female communication among elephants, especially during their sexually active periods. Studies on the Asian elephant in zoos have shown the significance of a urinary pheromone (Z7-12:Ac) in conveying the reproductive status of a female toward the opposite sex. We investigated the additional possibility of an inter-sexual chemical signal being conveyed through dung. Sixteen semi-captive adult male elephants were presented with dung samples of three female elephants in different reproductive phases. Each male was tested in 3 separate trials, within an interval of 1-3 days. The trials followed a double-blind pattern as the male and female elephants used in the trials were strangers, and the observer was not aware of the reproductive status of females during the period of bioassays. Males responded preferentially (P < 0.005), in terms of higher frequency of sniff, check and place behavior toward the dung of females close to pre-ovulatory period (follicular-phase) as compared to those in post-ovulatory period (luteal-phase). The response toward the follicular phase samples declined over repeated trials though was still significantly higher than the corresponding response toward the non-ovulatory phase in each of the trials performed. This is the first study to show that male Asian elephants were able to distinguish the reproductive phase of the female by possibly detecting a pre-ovulatory pheromone released in dung. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends and Variability of AVHRR-Derived NPP in India

In this paper, we estimate the trends and variability in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) over India for the period 1982-2006. We find an increasing trend of 3.9% per decade (r = 0.78, R-2 = 0.61) during the analysis period. A multivariate linear regression of NPP with temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, soil water and surface solar radiation (r = 0.80, R-2 = 0.65) indicates that the increasing trend is partly driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and the consequent CO2 fertilization of the ecosystems. However, human interventions may have also played a key role in the NPP increase: non-forest NPP growth is largely driven by increases in irrigated area and fertilizer use, while forest NPP is influenced by plantation and forest conservation programs. A similar multivariate regression of interannual NPP anomalies with temperature, precipitation, soil water, solar radiation and CO2 anomalies suggests that the interannual variability in NPP is primarily driven by precipitation and temperature variability. Mean seasonal NPP is largest during post-monsoon and lowest during the pre-monsoon period, thereby indicating the importance of soil moisture for vegetation productivity.

Nitrogen deposition: how important is it for global terrestrial carbon uptake?

Global carbon budget studies indicate that the terrestrial ecosystems have remained a large sink for carbon despite widespread deforestation activities. CO2 fertilization, N deposition and re-growth of mid-latitude forests are believed to be key drivers for land carbon uptake. In this study, we assess the importance of N deposition by performing idealized near-equilibrium simulations using the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4). In our equilibrium simulations, only 12-17% of the deposited nitrogen is assimilated into the ecosystem and the corresponding carbon uptake can be inferred from a C : N ratio of 20 : 1. We calculate the sensitivity of the terrestrial biosphere for CO2 fertilization, climate warming and N deposition as changes in total ecosystem carbon for unit changes in global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration, global mean temperature and Tera grams of nitrogen deposition per year, respectively. Based on these sensitivities, it is estimated that about 242 PgC could have been taken up by land due to the CO2 fertilization effect and an additional 175 PgC taken up as a result of the increased N deposition since the pre-industrial period. Because of climate warming, the terrestrial ecosystem could have lost about 152 PgC during the same period. Therefore, since pre-industrial times terrestrial carbon losses due to warming may have been more or less compensated by effects of increased N deposition, whereas the effect of CO2 fertilization is approximately indicative of the current increase in terrestrial carbon stock. Our simulations also suggest that the sensitivity of carbon storage to increased N deposition decreases beyond current levels, indicating that climate warming effects on carbon storage may overwhelm N deposition effects in the future.

La evolución reciente de la inversión en Argentina

Resumen: En este trabajo se hace una comparación entre las inversiones que se han llevado a cabo en dos períodos bien marcados en Argentina, a saber, pre crisis y post crisis. El período pre crisis donde la inversión era financiada por el sector externo, se caracteriza por un fuerte crecimiento de la inversión debido al sostenido ingreso de capitales, esto provoca que el país sea muy vulnerable ante cambios adversos en la situación macroeconómica internacional. Opuesto a la etapa anterior, en el período post crisis, la inversión es financiada exclusivamente con reinversión de utilidades y con ahorro interno. Se quiere mostrar con esto que el crecimiento no es sostenible si solo se asienta en el consumo, el rol de la inversión es fundamental tanto en la sustentabilidad de la tasa de crecimiento como en la dinámica de los precios. Ignorar su importancia condena a la sociedad a la pobreza.

Does the Term Spread play a role in the FED's reaction function? An Empirical Investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of a Fed’s reaction function (FRF) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of three switching regimes, two characterized by low volatility and the remaining regime by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the rate of inflation and the economic activity index depends on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the importance of the term spread in the FRF has increased over the sample period and the FRF has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period.

The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation

Using US data for the period 1967:5-2002:4, this paper empirically investigates the performance of an augmented version of the Taylor rule (ATR) that (i) allows for the presence of switching regimes, (ii) considers the long-short term spread in addition to the typical variables, (iii) uses an alternative monthly indicator of general economic activity suggested by Stock and Watson (1999), and (iv) considers interest rate smoothing. The estimation results show the existence of switching regimes, one characterized by low volatility and the other by high volatility. Moreover, the scale of the responses of the Federal funds rate to movements in the term spread, inflation and the economic activity index depend on the regime. The estimation results also show robust empirical evidence that the ATR has been more stable during the term of office of Chairman Greenspan than in the pre-Greenspan period. However, a closer look at the Greenspan period shows the existence of two alternative regimes and that the response of the Fed funds rate to inflation has not been significant during this period once the term spread is considered.