Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

The verification of temporal KBS: SPARSE - a case study in power systems

In this paper we present VERITAS, a tool that focus time maintenance, that is one of the most important processes in the engineering of the time during the development of KBS. The verification and validation (V&V) process is part of a wider process denominated knowledge maintenance, in which an enterprise systematically gathers, organizes, shares, and analyzes knowledge to accomplish its goals and mission. The V&V process states if the software requirements specifications have been correctly and completely fulfilled. The methodologies proposed in software engineering have showed to be inadequate for Knowledge Based Systems (KBS) validation and verification, since KBS present some particular characteristics. VERITAS is an automatic tool developed for KBS verification which is able to detect a large number of knowledge anomalies. It addresses many relevant aspects considered in real applications, like the usage of rule triggering selection mechanisms and temporal reasoning.

Simulated annealing metaheuristic to solve the optimal power flow

The optimal power flow problem has been widely studied in order to improve power systems operation and planning. For real power systems, the problem is formulated as a non-linear and as a large combinatorial problem. The first approaches used to solve this problem were based on mathematical methods which required huge computational efforts. Lately, artificial intelligence techniques, such as metaheuristics based on biological processes, were adopted. Metaheuristics require lower computational resources, which is a clear advantage for addressing the problem in large power systems. This paper proposes a methodology to solve optimal power flow on economic dispatch context using a Simulated Annealing algorithm inspired on the cooling temperature process seen in metallurgy. The main contribution of the proposed method is the specific neighborhood generation according to the optimal power flow problem characteristics. The proposed methodology has been tested with IEEE 6 bus and 30 bus networks. The obtained results are compared with other wellknown methodologies presented in the literature, showing the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems

This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.

Cyber-physical intelligence in the context of power systems

Cyber-Physical Intelligence is a new concept integrating Cyber-Physical Systems and Intelligent Systems. The paradigm is centered in incorporating intelligent behavior in cyber-physical systems, until now too oriented to the operational technological aspects. In this paper we will describe the use of Cyber-Physical Intelligence in the context of Power Systems, namely in the use of Intelligent SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems at different levels of the Power System, from the Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Control Centers till the customers houses.

The role of demand response in future power systems

Power systems are planed and operated according to the optimization of the available resources. Traditionally these tasks were mostly undertaken in a centralized way which is no longer adequate in a competitive environment. Demand response can play a very relevant role in this context but adequate tools to negotiate this kind of resources are required. This paper presents an approach to deal with these issues, by using a multi-agent simulator able to model demand side players and simulate their strategic behavior. The paper includes an illustrative case study that considers an incident situation. The distribution company is able to reduce load curtailment due to load flexibility contracts previously established with demand side players.

Power systems reliability calculation based on fuzzy data mining

This paper presents a methodology supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD), in order to find out the failure probability of electrical equipments’, which belong to a real electrical high voltage network. Data Mining (DM) techniques are used to discover a set of outcome failure probability and, therefore, to extract knowledge concerning to the unavailability of the electrical equipments such us power transformers and high-voltages power lines. The framework includes several steps, following the analysis of the real data base, the pre-processing data, the application of DM algorithms, and finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge. To validate the proposed methodology, a case study which includes real databases is used. This data have a heavy uncertainty due to climate conditions for this reason it was used fuzzy logic to determine the set of the electrical components failure probabilities in order to reestablish the service. The results reflect an interesting potential of this approach and encourage further research on the topic.

Cyber-ambient intelligent training of operators in power systems control centres

Cyber-Physical Systems and Ambient Intelligence are two of the most important and emerging paradigms of our days. The introduction of renewable sources gave origin to a completely different dimension of the distribution generation problem. On the other hand, Electricity Markets introduced a different dimension in the complexity, the economic dimension. Our goal is to study how to proceed with the Intelligent Training of Operators in Power Systems Control Centres, considering the new reality of Renewable Sources, Distributed Generation, and Electricity Markets, under the emerging paradigms of Cyber-Physical Systems and Ambient Intelligence. We propose Intelligent Tutoring Systems as the approach to deal with the intelligent training of operators in these new circumstances.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Demand response management in power systems using a particle swarm optimization approach

Competitive electricity markets have arisen as a result of power-sector restructuration and power-system deregulation. The players participating in competitive electricity markets must define strategies and make decisions using all the available information and business opportunities.

Impact of a price-maker pumped storage hydro unit on the integration of wind energy in power systems

The increasing integration of larger amounts of wind energy into power systems raises important operational issues, such as the balance between power generation and demand. The pumped storage hydro (PSH) units are one possible solution to mitigate this problem, once they can store the excess of energy in the periods of higher generation and lower demand. However, the behaviour of a PSH unit may differ considerably from the expected in terms of wind power integration when it operates in a liberalized electricity market under a price-maker context. In this regard, this paper models and computes the optimal PSH weekly scheduling in a price-taker and price-maker scenarios, either when the PSH unit operates in standalone and integrated in a portfolio of other generation assets. Results show that the price-maker standalone PSH will integrate less wind power in comparison with the price-taker situation. Moreover, when the PSH unit is integrated in a portfolio with a base load power plant, the role of the price elasticity of demand may completely change the operational profile of the PSH unit. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment and optimization of wind energy integration into the power systems: application to the portuguese system

The increasing integration of wind energy in power systems can be responsible for the occurrence of over-generation, especially during the off-peak periods. This paper presents a dedicated methodology to identify and quantify the occurrence of this over-generation and to evaluate some of the solutions that can be adopted to mitigate this problem. The methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system, in which the wind energy is expected to represent more than 25% of the installed capacity in a near future. The results show that the pumped-hydro units will not provide enough energy storage capacity and, therefore, wind curtailments are expected to occur in the Portuguese system. Additional energy storage devices can be implemented to offset the wind energy curtailments. However, the investment analysis performed show that they are not economically viable, due to the present high capital costs involved.

Short-term Wind Forecasting to Support Virtual Power Player Operation

This paper proposes a wind speed forecasting model that contributes to the development and implementation of adequate methodologies for Energy Resource Man-agement in a distribution power network, with intensive use of wind based power generation. The proposed fore-casting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, name-ly with a time horizon of 10 minutes. A case study using a real database from the meteoro-logical station installed in the GECAD renewable energy lab was used. A new wind speed forecasting model has been implemented and it estimated accuracy was evalu-ated and compared with a previous developed forecast-ing model. Using as input attributes the information of the wind speed concerning the previous 3 hours enables to obtain results with high accuracy for the wind short-term forecasting.

Real-Time Tariffs for Electric Vehicles in Wind Power based Power Systems

The use of Electric Vehicles (EVs) will change significantly the planning and management of power systems in a near future. This paper proposes a real-time tariff strategy for the charge process of the EVs. The main objective is to evaluate the influence of real-time tariffs in the EVs owners’ behaviour and also the impact in load diagram. The paper proposes the energy price variation according to the relation between wind generation and power consumption. The proposed strategy was tested in two different days in the Danish power system. January 31st and August 13th 2013 were selected because of the high quantities of wind generation. The main goal is to evaluate the changes in the EVs charging diagram with the energy price preventing wind curtailment.

Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution.