Nonlinear time series prediction based on a power-law noise model

In this paper we investigate the influence of a power-law noise model, also called noise, on the performance of a feed-forward neural network used to predict time series. We introduce an optimization procedure that optimizes the parameters the neural networks by maximizing the likelihood function based on the power-law model. We show that our optimization procedure minimizes the mean squared leading to an optimal prediction. Further, we present numerical results applying method to time series from the logistic map and the annual number of sunspots demonstrate that a power-law noise model gives better results than a Gaussian model.

Some aspects of multilevel load-frequency control of a power system

The application of multilevel control strategies for load-frequency control of interconnected power systems is assuming importance. A large multiarea power system may be viewed as an interconnection of several lower-order subsystems, with possible change of interconnection pattern during operation. The solution of the control problem involves the design of a set of local optimal controllers for the individual areas, in a completely decentralised environment, plus a global controller to provide the corrective signal to account for interconnection effects. A global controller, based on the least-square-error principle suggested by Siljak and Sundareshan, has been applied for the LFC problem. A more recent work utilises certain possible beneficial aspects of interconnection to permit more desirable system performances. The paper reports the application of the latter strategy to LFC of a two-area power system. The power-system model studied includes the effects of excitation system and governor controls. A comparison of the two strategies is also made.

Some aspects of multilevel load-frequency control of a power system

The application of multilevel control strategies for load-frequency control of interconnected power systems is assuming importance. A large multiarea power system may be viewed as an interconnection of several lower-order subsystems, with possible change of interconnection pattern during operation. The solution of the control problem involves the design of a set of local optimal controllers for the individual areas, in a completely decentralised environment, plus a global controller to provide the corrective signal to account for interconnection effects. A global controller, based on the least-square-error principle suggested by Siljak and Sundareshan, has been applied for the LFC problem. A more recent work utilises certain possible beneficial aspects of interconnection to permit more desirable system performances. The paper reports the application of the latter strategy to LFC of a two-area power system. The power-system model studied includes the effects of excitation system and governor controls. A comparison of the two strategies is also made.

Heat transfer to power-law fluids in thermal entrance region with viscous dissipation for constant heat flux conditions

An analytical solution of the heat transfer problem with viscous dissipation for non-Newtonian fluids with power-law model in the thermal entrance region of a circular pipe and two parallel plates under constant heat flux conditions is obtained using eigenvalue approach by suitably replacing one of the boundary conditions by total energy balance equation. Analytical expressions for the wall and the bulk temperatures and the local Nusselt number are presented. The results are in close agreement with those obtained by implicit finite-difference scheme. It is found that the role of viscous dissipation on heat transfer is completely different for heating and cooling conditions at the wall. The results for the case of cooling at the wall are of interest in the design of the oil pipe line.

Influence of Temperature and High Electric Field on Power Consumption by Piezoelectric Actuated Integrated Structure

The influence of electric field and temperature on power consumption of piezoelectric actuated integrated structure is studied by using a single degree of freedom mass-spring-damper system model coupled with a piezoactuator. The material lead zirconate titanate, is considered as it is capable of producing relatively high strains (e.g., 3000 mu epsilon). Actuators are often subject to high electric fields to increase the induced strain produced, resulting in field dependant piezoelectric coefficient d(31), dielectric coefficient epsilon(33) and dissipation factor delta. Piezostructures are also likely to be used across a wide range of temperatures in aerospace and undersea operations. Again, the piezoelectric properties can vary with temperature. Recent experimental studies by physics researchers have looked at the effect of high electric field and temperature on piezoelectric properties. These properties are used together with an impedance based power consumption model. Results show that including the nonlinear variation of dielectric permittivity and dissipation factor with electric field is important. Temperature dependence of the dielectric constant also should be considered.

Optimum Load Shedding Through Programming Techniques

This paper obtains a new accurate model for sensitivity in power systems and uses it in conjunction with linear programming for the solution of load-shedding problems with a minimum loss of loads. For cases where the error in the sensitivity model increases, other linear programming and quadratic programming models have been developed, assuming currents at load buses as variables and not load powers. A weighted error criterion has been used to take priority schedule into account; it can be either a linear or a quadratic function of the errors, and depending upon the function appropriate programming techniques are to be employed.

Study of drag reduction by gas injection for power-law fluid flow in horizontal stratified and slug flow regimes

In this work, the drag reduction by gas injection for power-law fluid flow in stratified and slug flow regimes has been studied. Experimentswere conducted to measure the pressure gradient within air/CMC solutions in a horizontal Plexiglas pipe that had a diameter of 50mm and a length of 30 m. The drag reduction ratio in stratified flow regime was predicted using the two-fluid model. The results showed that the drag reduction should occur over the large range of the liquid holdup when the flow behaviour index remained at the low value. Furthermore, for turbulent gas-laminar liquid stratified flow, the drag reduction by gas injection for Newtonian fluid was more effective than that for shear-shinning fluid, when the dimensionless liquid height remained in the area of high value. The pressure gradient model for a gas/Newtonian liquid slug flow was extended to liquids possessing the Ostwald–de Waele power law model. The proposed model was validated against 340 experimental data point over a wide range of operating conditions, fluid characteristics and pipe diameters. The dimensionless pressure drop predicted was well inside the 20% deviation region for most of the experimental data. These results substantiated the general validity of the model presented for gas/non-Newtonian two-phase slug flows.

Non-modal instabilities of two-dimensional disturbances in plane Couette flow of a power-law fluid

Instabilities of fluid flows have traditionally been investigated by normal mode analysis, i.e. by linearizing the equations of flow and testing for unstable eigenvalues of the linearized problem. However, the results of eigenvalue analysis agree poorly in many cases with experiments, especially for shear flows. In this paper we study the instabilities of two-dimensional Couette flow of a polymeric fluid in the framework of non-modal stability theory rather than normal mode analysis. A power-law model is used to describe the polymeric liquid. We focus on the response to external excitations and initial conditions by examining the pseudospectra structures and the transient energy growths. For both Newtonian and non-Newtonian flows, the results show that there can be a rather large transient growth even though the linear operator of Couette flow has no unstable eigenvalue. The effects of non-Newtonian viscosity on the transient behaviors are examined in this study. The results show that the "shear-thinning/shear-thickening" effect increases/decreases the amplitude of responses to external excitations and initial conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Coordinated Design of Phase Measurement Unit and Power System Stabilisers in Large Scale Power System

This paper presents a case-study of a PMU application with PSS support in a real large scale Chinese power system to suppress inter-area oscillations. The paper uses PMU measured feedback signals from a PSS input signal for dynamic torque analysis (DTA). In the paper, a mathematical model of multi-machine power system is described, followed by formation of the residue and DTA indices. Simulations of the model are used with a large-scale power system model to demonstrate the role of PSS and the equivalence of DTA residue indices.

Application of PMUs to Coordinate Hydroelectric and Wind Power Plant Operation

It is acknowledged that wind power is a stochastic energy source compared to hydroelectric generation which is easily scheduled. In this paper a scheme for coordinating wind power plant and hydroelectric power plant is presented by using PMUs to measure and control the state of wind and hydro power plants. Hydroelectric generation is proposed as a method of energy reserve and compensation in the context of wind power fluctuation in order to avoid full or partial curtailment of wind generation to benefit wind providers. The feasibility of this proposed scheme is investigated by power flow calculation and stability analysis using the IEEE 30-bus power system model.

Secure D2D Communication in Large-Scale Cognitive Cellular Networks with Wireless Power Transfer

In this paper, we investigate secure device-to-device (D2D) communication in energy harvesting large-scale cognitive cellular networks. The energy constrained D2D transmitter harvests energy from multi-antenna equipped power beacons (PBs), and communicates with the corresponding receiver using the spectrum of the cellular base stations (BSs). We introduce a power transfer model and an information signal model to enable wireless energy harvesting and secure information transmission. In the power transfer model, we propose a new power transfer policy, namely, best power beacon (BPB) power transfer. To characterize the power transfer reliability of the proposed policy, we derive new closed-form expressions for the exact power outage probability and the asymptotic power outage probability with large antenna arrays at PBs. In the information signal model, we present a new comparative framework with two receiver selection schemes: 1) best receiver selection (BRS), and 2) nearest receiver selection (NRS). To assess the secrecy performance, we derive new expressions for the secrecy throughput considering the two receiver selection schemes using the BPB power transfer policies. We show that secrecy performance improves with increasing densities of PBs and D2D receivers because of a larger multiuser diversity gain. A pivotal conclusion is reached that BRS achieves better secrecy performance than NRS but demands more instantaneous feedback and overhead.

Local power of some tests in exponential family nonlinear models

In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions up to order n(-1/2) for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in exponential family nonlinear models (Cordeiro and Paula, 1989), under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the dispersion parameter, thus generalising the results given in Cordeiro et al. (1994) and Ferrari et al. (1997). We also present Monte Carlo simulations in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reactive Control for Transmission Overload Relief Based on Sensitivity Analysis and Cooperative Game Theory

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)